Demographics Again -- February 7, 2024

Locator: 46762DEMOGRAPHICS.

I talk about demographics occasionally -- see this link.  

Now, this, from today's WSJ:

From the linked article:

More Americans are turning 65 this year than any prior time in history.

About 4.1 million Americans will reach 65 years old this year, reaching a surge that will continue through 2027, according to an analysis by Jason Fichtner, executive director of the Retirement Income Institute and chief economist at the Bipartisan Policy Center. That is about 11,200 a day, compared with the 10,000 daily average from the previous decade, he says.

Today’s 65-year-olds are wealthier than their predecessors. While significant disparities exist, the median net worth of those 65 to 74 was $410,000 in 2022, up from $282,270 in 2010 in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars, according to the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances.

Now put that story and the charts "against" "my favorite chart." LOL. This is not rocket science. 

And, then, of course, "that area under the curve."

ARM Surges 40%+ -- February 7, 2024

Locator: 46761TECH.

Earnings: link here.

From earlier posts:

Tech and investing: December 22, 2023 --

• laptops making huge comeback; winner: Microsoft; Arm's back; Intel and AMD are getting ready for a Windows refresh
• Microsoft discontinues Windows Mixed Reality; link here; link here. May become a stand-alone post.
  
• Amazon: absolutely incredible; link here;
• Micron surges; bullish story for all of tech; 
• Apple: next-gen CarPlay will start with Porsche and Aston Martin; 
• The Verge: may need to be a stand-alone post;
  
• 2024 vehicles from high-end automakers will get the first taste of Apple’s “cohesive design experience that is the very best of your car and your iPhone.”

June 8, 2023: Yesterday: my first blog on Apple Silicon, arguably the biggest chip company in the world.

Today, more, from The Verge, dated June 7, 2023. Jon Porter "heard" the same thing I heard during Tim Cook's WWDC keynote speech.

Although it seems like a surefire thing in retrospect, it’s worth taking a moment to reflect on how successful Apple’s switch to Apple Silicon has been. Prior to Apple’s big announcement, Arm-based processors had only really been successful in smartphones. A couple of manufacturers had attempted to make Windows laptops work on Arm (perhaps most notably with the Surface Pro X), but none had delivered on the promises of the architecture without significant compromises.

Apple has not just successfully transitioned its entry-level MacBooks to Arm, where the architecture’s battery life benefits were the biggest appeal, but it also upended our concept of Arm performance for both laptops and desktops. Apple not only ported its own operating system and apps but also convinced major third-party developers to do the same.

The iPhone manufacturer is notorious for its love of control. It controls how people can use its smartphones and which apps they can install. It controls how the repair ecosystem around them works. And with its transition to Apple Silicon, it has an unprecedented amount of control over how it makes its Macs. It doesn’t need to wait for Intel and AMD to release new chips to upgrade its computers or rebuild a relationship with Nvidia. Now, as it starts its next journey, Apple can march to the beat of its own drum.

Also, review at wiki. One may want to spend some time on "history" of ARM.

EOG With Four New Permits; Grayson Mill Reports A Completed DUC -- February 7, 2024

ERCOT: Charles Kennedy provides update on Texas grid reliability. Link here. $12 billion sounds like a lot of money until one does the math.

More good economic news from Liz Sonders earlier today, link here:

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Locator: 46760B.

WTI: $74.01.

Active rigs: 39.

Four new permits, #40504 - #40507, inclusive:

• Operator: EOG
• Field: Phaelens Butte (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• EOG has permits for four Mandaree wells, SESW 4-149-94, 
• to be sited 1980 FWL and between 934 FSL and 1054 FSL

Three permits renewed:

• Liberty Resources (2): an Orris permit and a Dolores permit, both in Gros Ventre, Burke;
• Lime Rock: a Sten Rav permit, North Fork, McKenzie County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 39824, 1,230, Grayson Mill, Ffigaro 32-29 5H, Camp, npd -- looks like a 5-well pad

Well of interest:

• 17550, 1,310, Grayson Mill, Figaro 29-32 1H, Camp, t8/09; cum 321K 9/23; off line; crossing wells being fracked;

Will S&P 500 Hit 5,000 Today? February 7, 2024

Locator: 46759INV.

Intra-day high: 4,999.89.

Talk after the close is all about DIS (Disney): big, big beat, but earnings miss; exclusive interview with Bob Iger on CNBC;

• raised prices, cut expenses; overseas did very, very well;
• revenue is flat; how does Iger respond? Blah, blah, blah
• will partner with Epic / Fortnite: Disney to invest $1.5 billion in Epic games
  
• a separate but integrated with Epic
• this is a big deal
  

The numbers (DIS):

• expectations:
• EPS: 97 cents to $1.02
• revenue: 23.47 to $24 billion
• whisper numbers:
• EPS: $1.07 -- a beat by 10 cents
• actual report:
• EPS: $1.22 -- a huge beat
  
• revenue: $23.55 billion vs $23.64 billion
  
• comments:
• shares up 4.5% on the news; back to trading over $100; trading at $104
  
• dividend increased by 50%
  

ARM Holddings: reports earnings; after-hours; ARM spikes 13%;

• top and bottom beat
• guidance is surpassing expectation
• one may to ask what company is biggest shareholder / partner with ARM is
  

Wynn Resorts: beats; holy mackerel, but shareholders still reluctant

• up over 2% after hours;
• EPS: $1.91 vs $1.15

*****************************
Soft Landing, Hard Landing, Or "Touch and Go"?

More On Ford As Earnings Are Dissected -- February 7, 2024

Locator: 46758FORD.

Following Ford's 1Q24 earnings release earlier this year, more articles are coming out, but they all point to one thing: EVs in the US, if not dead, are significantly delayed (think at least ten years).

It's no longer about EVs. The big question is whether Americans even want fake EVs (hybrids). I can see hybrids in automobiles, but definitely not pick-up trucks and maybe not even SUVs. Think weight. Folks are going to go broke buying new tires for their EVs.

Since the original note, new articles:

Ford lost $65,000 on every EV sold -- and no, this can't be spread out of EVs yet to be built and sold; Ford has delayed all its EV plans its EV plans wherever they can do that (needs to be fact-checked.

Ford has explicitly said or has implied that the company will make back that loss by increasing prices on their F-150s. It was also noted on CNBC yesterday that the new labor contract is impacting CAPEX plans but by delaying all EV plans wherever they can, the company can afford to pay shareholders a special dividend in the first quarter.

And this tweet. Note the word used to describe the reaction of Ford executives when they learned their EVs were not selling. "SHOCKED."

Original Post

Ford's earnings, link here.

• beat on bottom and top lines; by quite a wide margin. 
• EV unit lost money but ICE did incredibly well.
• should confirm the death knell for EVs. In the US.
  
• huge labor expense. Changing CAPEX.
• special dividend, 18 cents, in first quarter. In addition to regular quarterly.
  
• shares up seven to eight percent after hours, now trading above $12. 
  

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report Unremarkable; 1Q24 GDP Estimate At 3.2 -- February 7, 2024

Locator: 46757B.

Weekly EIA petroleum report:

• US crude oil in inventory: 4% below five-year average;
• US crude oil imports running 6% less than same period last year;
• refiners remain at historic lows, 82..4%
• distillates decreased again and remain 7% below five-year average;
• jet fuel supplied: essentially flat compared to last year

GDP Now: link here. Dropped significantly from last estimate, from 4.2% last week to 3.4% today.

Gasoline demand: Economy is surging and gasoline demand is identical to one year ago, link here: 

*****************************
Economy "On Fire"

Liz Sonders today over at twitter.

• food inflation:

• retail sales:

JPM pivots / reverses today over at twitter. It should be noted that there was also a tweet that "JPM quants" noted a "plethora" of signs in the current market to the market during the dot-com bubble.

**********************
The Downfall of Trump

Tracked here.

This is the story that caught my attention today.

So much behind the headline. Huge fact seldom reported: when one loses a case with monetary penalty, in some (most? all?) jurisdictions the judgement must be put in escrow if the defendant appeals. And apparently in some (most? all?) jurisdictions the escrow comes with a huge interest attached that the plaintiff must also pay. In other words, an appeal if lost, will cost significantly more than the original judgement and that's without considering legal fees. And the penalty (dollars) must be real money in a bank account monitored by the judge.

Right or wrong, based on this article and comments by millionaire / billionaire political donors news networks, it sounds like GOP donors are not eager to support Trump. Once Trump replaces the RNC chairperson with his own pick, the contributions will likely fall, all things being equal, again based on public sources noted above. The Guardian has that story.

I consider this guy a pretty good straight-shooter. He noted this from a FT op-ed.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- February 7, 2024

Locator: 46756B.

WTI: $73.80.

Thursday, February 8, 2024: 14 for the month; 73 for the quarter, 73 for the year
40047, conf, CLR, Harms East Federal 2-33H2,
40044, conf, CLR, Quale Federal 7-1H1,
39753, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 3-14-18H,
39113, conf, Hess, EN-Hegland-155-94-0508H-6,

Wednesday, February 7, 2024: 10 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 69 for the year
39536, conf, Hess, EN-Person A-156-94-1522H-4,
39155, conf, Hess, RS-F Armour 156-92-1224H-6,
38992, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot 42-26-26TFHU,

RBN Energy: high gas production, historically low heating demand keep a lid on prices.

So far this winter, front-month CME/NYMEX natural gas futures have fallen, risen and fallen again but, until their most recent dip, generally remained within the same $2.30-to-$3.30/MMBtu range where they have been lingering since mid-2023. With production sustaining near-record levels, LNG export volumes down from the winter highs, and temperatures back to normal, the supply of gas remains plentiful — a bearish scenario. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why there’s been a lid on natural gas prices — and the odds that the situation might change before the rapidly-approaching end of the winter season.

LNG exports have been the main driver of increased demand for U.S.-produced natural gas over the past decade, and the next tranche of planned facility builds has been hotly anticipated by producers. However, while producers once hoped that the upward march of demand would resume in 2024, they must now wait until 2025 before seeing substantial increases. Golden Pass LNG in southeastern Texas, the Qatar Energy/ExxonMobil project that had been expected to start up in late 2024, now won’t be coming online until early 2025 and the market will likely need to wait until at least November of next year before Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG in southeastern Louisiana begins taking feedgas.

Another Busy, Busy, Busy Day -- February 7, 2024

Locator: 46755B.

Sports Streaming Alliance (SSA):

• none of is own sports content
• simply an aggregator of other streaming networks
• think of it this way:
• "water hoses in": from multiple sources, EPSN, Fox,
• "a virtual black box on top of your TV": "water hoses in, a single water hose out
• "a single water hose out through your monitor
• basically Fubo TV or Pluto
• cost to replace free Fubo TV or free Pluto for sports: $40+
• this $40 is on top of:
• copper, fiber, satellite hook-up
• a la carte for Hulu, Peacock, Netflix, Max
• the $40+ fee for that virtual black box
• and, then, get this, it's very possible one could pay twice for same streaming sports event
• pay for the "water hose" coming in (ESPN, Fox, etc)
• then paying for the "virtual black box," the SSA

SSA: later in the day -- it was reported that both the NBA and the NFL were "blindsided" on this announcment.

Economy on fire:

• GDPNow
• Liz Sonders
• JPM 
• market today -- apparently traders / investors seeing same thing
• pre-market:
• S&P up 21 points!
• NASDAQ up over 100 points despite tech taking a breather
• at the open
• YUM up 10%
• S&P 500 opens higher; nears 5,000
• TGT at 9-month high
• considers membership program like Amazon
• suggests TGT's boardroom is "concerned, anxious

The downfall of Trump:

• those appeals?
• to appeal, the court requires cash to be deposited in escrow
• as one example, that $83-million (possibly to be increased) judgment; to be appealed, that $83 million must be placed in a court-monitored bank account at 9% interest (NY -- needs to be fact-checked)
• and that's just tip of the iceberg
  
• and then there's Philip Esformes; wow 
  

House GOP now owns it:

• the Southern Surge
  

EVs

• Ford's wake-up call
• Toyota: surging
  

Wind

• Europe's wake-up call

Personal investing: bought ABBV today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.