Friday, April 26, 2024

Friday Night -- Whoo-Hoo! April 26, 2024

Locator: 46875B.

Market at the close:


For the archives -- what's going on that affected the market today:

  • some tech stocks reported great earnings; GOOG announces a dividend for the first time;
  • personal consumption expenditures "price index" seems to be plateauing in the 2.8 - 3.0% range; possibly increasing; resilient American economy (Americans keep spending)
  • GDP estimate, GDPNow, for 2Q24, jumped from 1.6% actual 1Q24 to 3.9% estimate 2Q24
  • relatively quiet in the Mideast; though more and more it appears that Israel is yet to move into southern Palestine (Rafah) to clear out Hamas
  • analysts pretty much agree that any "rate cut" in 2024 is getting less and less likely

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.85.

Active rigs: 40.

Two new permits, #40701 and #40702:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill
  • Field: South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Grayson Mill has permits for two Skaar wells, NWNE 15-150-99; 
      • both to be sited 1519 FEL with one sited 447 FNL and the other 347 FNL

Eight permits renewed:

  • CLR: eight McClintock permits, NENE 24-156-95 and SESW 13-156-95, Pleasant Valley, Williams County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported to be completed:

  • 37921, n/d, BR, Parrish 2B TFH,
  • 39908, 668, Oasis, Andrews Federal 5304 12-24 2B,
  • 39909, 98, Oasis, Andrews Federal 5304 12-24 3B,
  • 39910, 98, Oasis, Andrews Federal 5304 12-24 4BX,

Week 17: April 22, 2024 -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 46874TOPSTORIES.

Top story:

  • Peace breaks out in the Middle East 
  • No one seems to notice

Top international non-energy story:

  • Ukraine
    • Additional US money for Ukraine, Israel

Top international energy story:


Top national non-energy story

  • Trump criminal trial has begun

Top national energy story:

  • WTI trading in narrow range, $82 - $84

Focus on frackinglink here.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's quick connectslink here.

*************************************
Market

Market at the close:


For the archives -- what's going on that affected the market today:

  • some tech stocks reported great earnings; GOOG announces a dividend for the first time;
  • personal consumption expenditures "index" seems to be plateauing in the 2.8 - 3.0% range; possibly increasing
  • GDP estimate, GDPNow, for 2Q24, jumped from 1.6% actual 1Q24 to 3.9% estimate 2Q24
  • relatively quiet in the Mideast; though more and more it appears that Israel is yet to move into southern Palestine (Rafah) to clear out Hamas
  • analysts pretty much agree that any "rate cut" in 2024 is getting less and less likely

Inflation -- April 26, 2024

Locator: 46873INFLATION.

With regard to the inflation report this morning, from Carl Q

Posted earlier:

Overview:

  • inflation: OMG --- headlines scary; facts anything but scary
    • just before the announcement; Dow up nicely (pre-market)
    • right after the announcement, Dow drops (pre-market)
    • by end of today, all will be forgotten
    • probably by noon, all will be forgotten

 As noted, by noon all was forgotten:

Intel -- INTC -- April 26, 2024

Locator: 46872TECH.

The morning after, it keeps getting worse. When you lose CNBC .... link here. Intel. INTC.



Posted earlier:

Intel earnings:

  • morning after earnings release: INTC drops 10%;
  • guidance was bad
  • missed whisper numbers
  • whisper numbers;
  • CNBC: also, here;

But look at this guidance:

But for me, an investor, I really don't know what business Intel is in any more and with whom are they competing? Design, fabricators, CPUs, GPUs, memory; smart phones, laptops ; with whom have they partnered?

Look at ticker, after market:

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The Book Page

I can't recall for sure. I thought I had seen this book, perhaps even read much of it recently. It came out in the late 2023. But I honestly don't recall.

I will add it to my 2023-2024 winter reading program. It will be the last book so added and now I will start my 2024 summer reading program.

Link here.

The book:

The Princes in the Tower, Philippa Langley, c. 2023.

Can It Get Any Worse? PEMEX Net Profit Plummets 92% — 1Q24

Locator: 46871MEXICO.

Link here.

US Personal Income At All-Time High -- April 26, 2024

Locator: 46870ECON.

Link here.


Link here


Market at mid-morning:


Thank goodness, CVX, XOM spoiled the party. Otherwise, the euphoria would have been uncontrollable.

Can It Get Any Worse? Worse Day On Record? Hertz Global -- Aptil 26, 2024

Locator: 46870EVS.

EVs: more bad news. This was a $30-stock at one time. My hunch: Phil Le Beau won't be reporting this story.


 

Wow! Breaking News Now, 2Q24: 3.9% Forecast. GDPNow — April 26, 2024

Locator: 46869ECON.

Inflation to grind higher. No longer “sticky” at 2.8%.

Fed rate: talk will turn to higher rates. 

Link here.

**************************
Hess: 1Q24

Link here.

Are folks paying attention? Look at the y/y increase in net income. Wow.

Let's see:

  • production, y/y: 27%.
  • income, y/y: 146% (no typo)

**************************
An Apple Misstep?

There are certainly indications that Apple / Tim Cook misstepped with regard to memory upgrades. Tim's logic may have protected margins but probably cost the company bragging rights. I doubt the average consumer even paid attention but Apple's policy with regard to memory upgrades was certainly not helpful. One gets the feeling Tim hates paying thirty-party vendors when he can get same/better results with other methods.

********************
Personal Investing

No change in strategic investment plan.

Am closing out my KMI position over next few week to simply streamline my portfolio; will continue to build CHRD position.

No recommendation. See disclaimers.

For extended family member concerned about AAPL: today would be another great day to sell some shares in APPL. Comment made for one single individual.

Clearnig Off The Desk -- April 26, 2024

Locator: 46868B.

Clearing the desk.

EVs: more bad news.


Economy:

  • US GDP, Carl Q: on top of the world. And not just by a little, but a lot
    • but even better, look at the trends
      • up: US, India
      • down a lot: Japan, EU, UK
      • down, but perhaps just taking a breather, recession? China
    • but that EU, UK drop is stunning -- because the lines crossed in 2012, the stunning drop is easily missed
    • but EU, UK look dreadful; Why? Energy and regulations
    • at least two many EU/UK energy companies are looking to get listed on NYSE; they've had enough
  • US spending: on a tear -- Carl Q
    • the last two months were the strongest personal spending growth numbers in over a year! Link here.
  • inflation: OMG! Link here.
    • but wait, there's more -- one hour after inflation numbers were released, all was forgotten
    • DOW up 60 points in pre-market despite Big Oil underf performing
    • NASDAQ surges -- again pre-market


Energy
:

  • cloudy weather for solar energy in the US: link here.
  • but worse, US solar panel manufacturers want US policies to stop China dumping


Southern surge
: as expected, San Diego is now the top border region for migrant arrivals; link here;

  • absolutely predictable;
  • my only comment: why did it take so long?

CHIPS Act: link here.

  • the social media comments: talk about a lot of folks that simply don't get it


Energy
:

  • EIA: US natural gas-fired electricity generation consistently increased in 2022 and 2023;
  • link here;
  • AI revolution in the US: energy needs will surge

Personal investing:

  • I post my "investment buckets" as they change
  • in my Big Pharma bucket, I have only one stock: ABBV
  • today; at open, ABBV falls almost 3%

TGIF -- April 26, 2024

Locator: 46867B.

Overview:

  • earnings:
    • tech did great: MSFT, GOOG
    • Big Oil mixed: XOM, CVX;
  • inflation: OMG --- headlines scary; facts anything but scary
    • just before the announcement; Dow up nicely (pre-market)
    • right after the announcement, Dow drops (pre-market)
    • by end of today, all will be forgotten
    • probably by noon, all will be forgotten
  • markets
    • NASDAQ should have a great day
    • Dow to grind higher
  • economy, inflation, Fed rates, consumer spending
    • yes, Virginia, higher for longer; there will be no Santa Claus rally this year
    • consumer spending is crazy; no way this kind of spending will result in lower inflation
    • indications: inflation no longer "sticky," but gradually will actually grind higher
    • inflation headlines: will gradually see less "sticky" and more "grind higher"
    • "sticky" would be nice; but now it's gonna be "inflation is grinding higher" 
      • sticky: Fed holds rates until next year
      • 'inflation grinds higher: Fed starts talking about raising rates
    • WMT CEO: says grocery prices ares going in the right direction
  • Comment: as I go through one doze news sources and read a gazillion headlines and almost as many ledes, I am really, really excited abou the US economy and investing
    • then I read commends on social media in reply to those headlines and ledes, and the pessimism and negativity is truly amazing;
    • it's always been there, nothing new, but, wow, how do these folks get through life
    • their glasses are always half empty; mine? Always half full
    • I think that's why I like Carl Q's tweets -- he seems to be "grounded" but yet seems optimistic

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $84.38.

Sunday, April 28, 2024: 56 for the month; 56 for the quarter, 255 for the year
39523, conf, Kraken, Blue 2-35-26-2H,
37520, conf, BR, Mazama 2C UTFH,

Saturday, April 27, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
None.

Friday, April 26, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: evolving LNG market could mean major changes for China's big three.

China regained its place as the world’s largest LNG importer in 2023, a title it lost in 2022 due to COVID-related shutdowns. Given that China only started importing LNG in 2006, the country’s demand growth — imports last year totaled 71.3 million metric tons (~9.5 Bcf/d), just under 18% of globally traded demand — can only be described as spectacular. But this unprecedented growth story is undergoing fundamental changes which are likely to result in major impacts to LNG commerce not only in China but in the Far East and possibly beyond. In today’s RBN blog, we look at some of these changes and ask how the Big Three national oil companies (NOCs) — CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec — could change their business models as smaller provincial gas utility buyers pursue their own LNG imports.

Thursday, April 25, 2024

Legacy Fund -- April, 2024, Deposits

Locator: 46866LEGACYFUND.

Legacy Fund

Monthly deposits.

Legacy Fund data here

North Dakota budget: probably easiest to read is at Ballotpedia.

North Dakota state office of management and budget.


*******************************
The Book Page 

I'm probably the only one that doesn't know / didn't know the meaning / origin of "Manitou" -- that is, until tonight. 

Wow, how many times have I see that word, how long have I known that word, or variations thereof, how many times have I mentioned the Manitou oil field on the blog, and hard-to-believe, I've never thought of looking up the word?

Then tonight, while reading "Rip Van Winkle" in The Legend of Sleepy Hollow and Other Stories or, the Sketch Book of Geoffrey Crayon, Gent., Washington Irving, introduction by Alice Hoffman, c. 2001.

"Rip Van Winkle" was the third story in the "anthology," and in an appendix to the story as it were, a posthumous note by Diedrich Knickerbocker, mentioned "Manitou," p. 41. While discussing the Catskill or Kaatsberg mountains along the Hudson River north of NYC, Knicerbocker: 

"In old times say the Indian traditions, there was a kind of Manitou or Spirit, who kept about the wildest recesses of the Catskill mountains, and took a mischievous pleasure in wreaking all kinds of evils and vexations upon the red men."

Pretty cool, huh?

One can confirm the meaning of "manitou" by looking it up, but yes, indeed, it is an old Algonquin word for a specific spirit living in the geographical location as noted.

I've had the book on my shelves for twenty years, I suppose, but only recently had an interest in reading about Washington Irving and this stories again. 

"With "Rip Van Winkle," and the "Sketch Book," Washington Irving is believed by many to have created the genre of the short story in America, mixing superstition and history, the European tradition of fairy tales and folktales, and local Indian legends." -- Alice Hoffman.

"Rip Van Winkle" was published in 1819. Interestingly, these stories of superstition and ghosts were a big deal in England at the time. Exhibit A: Emily Brontë's Wuthering Heights was published in 1847. More contemporaneously, Mary Shelley's Frankenstein was published in 1818.

************************
An Allegory

Intel Earnings; CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47075TECH.

Chips, link here, to Barron's

Intel earnings:

  • morning after earnings release: INTC drops 10%;
  • guidance was bad
  • missed whisper numbers
  • whisper numbers;
  • CNBC: also, here;

But look at this guidance:

But for me, an investor, I really don't know what business Intel is in any more and with whom are they competing? Design, fabricators, CPUs, GPUs, memory; smart phones, laptops ; with whom have they partnered?

Look at ticker, after market:

 *********************************
Tech Chips

Tech is tracked here.

Three major "chips": CPUs, GPUs, and memory.

Qualcomm and  Qualcomm Snapdragon modems.



Maybe The Energy Sector Ain't So Bad -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47074INV.

Link here

Maybe the energy sector isn't so bad. Was last year (and the years during the Covid lockdown) outliers?

5-4-3: Five New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed; Three Permits Renewed -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47073B.

Stock of the day:

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: $83.89.

Five new permits, #40696 - #40700, inclusive:

  • Operators: Zavanna (2); Hess (3)
  • Fields: Stockyard Creek (Williams); Manitou (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for three EN-Kiesel wells, SESW 19-155-94,
      • to be sited 543 FSL and between 2485 FWL and 2419 FWL;
    • Zavanna has permits for two Jersey wells, NWSW 22-154-99, 
      • both to be sited 616 FWL with one to be sited 1552 FSl and the other 1582 FSL

Three permits renewed:

  • CLR: three Chloe permits, SWSE 20-156-99, East Fork, Williams County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37929, n/d, BR, Parrish 3A TFH,
  • 37931, n/d, BR, Parrish 3B MBH,
  • 37933, n/d, BR, Parrish 4A MBH,
  • 37935, n/d, BR, Boxer 3B MBH,

Rambling On The Market Today -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47072INV.

BREAKING: Alphabet surges after earnings beat, first-ever dividend. Folks might want to prepare for tomorrow; after-hour tech trading reacting to the news.

I'm traveling so I'm not watching CNBC live on television.

I saw early this morning that the Dow dropped 300+ points.

I checked in after the close: the DOW dropped by more than 370 points.

The NASDAQ closed down 101 points, and yet this was one of my best days on the market in the past few weeks. Pleasantly surprised. I'm not going to look through my portfolio to understand why. I don't want to jinx things or be dismayed. LOL.
I made my trades earlier today and have one more huge trade tomorrow morning at the market open.

Some headlines from CNBC webpage and observations:

  • F: I still have to go back and blog about Ford. Very strange -- for lack of a better word -- analyst response to Ford's 1Q24 report.
  • tech:
    • MSFT cloud growth accelerates on back of AI push
    • SNAP shares soar by 25% -- sorry Josh -- his kids were correct
    • INTC: fell aftr providing weak forecast for the current quarter; still down't know what business it's in -- fell almost 2%
      • holy mackerel -- after hours, it got even worse; INTC droppe over 8% in after-hour trading
      • compare with AVGO: up $38 during the day; up another $12 after hours
      • QCOM: flat
      • NVDA: up %30 during the day; up another $16 after hours
    • AMD: up 2% during the day; up another 1% after hours
  • JPMback to "stagflation" 
    • becomes a stock-picker's market
    • perhaps stagflation for the bankers; not for tech
  • META: tumbles 10% on weak guidance and CEO's distaste for all the money wasted by his company
  • Southwest Airline's "open seating" business plan has been a debacle
    • fliers hate it;
    • rivals have touted high revenue growth for premium seating

Speaking of F, what did the other EV companies do:

  • TSLA: up nicely during the day and after hours
  • RIVN: down 4% during the day
  • GM: up slightly;

I don't know what the analysts and talking heads are saying; why they seem to be wringing their hands, but scrolling through CNBC and Yahoo!Finance -- wow, the news is incredible, it seems, for investors.

Yahoo!Finance has an article suggesting "no landing" vs a "soft landing." I've called it a "touch and go" for at least six months:

  • we'll touch an inflation low; the Feds will call it "great" -- close enough to 2% even if it's not exactly 2%;
  • and then the economy takes off, as in a "touch and go."

******************************
Disclaimer -- Briefly

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

US Tallest Skyscraper -- Update -- Oklahoma City -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47071ARCHIVES.

Google tallest skycraper us oklahoma city

****************************
The Book Page

The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century, THomas L. Friedman, c. 2005.

Norman Mailer: A Double Life, J. Michael Lennon, c. 2013.

  • 763 pages
  • 133 page, notes
  • 7 pages, selected biography
  • 30 pages, index


WTI Holding Steady -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47069B. 

Personal investing

  • raised cash by selling MCD, MRVL. Remain long-term holdings. Will re-establish positions in MCD, MRVL with portfolio dividends in June.
  • added to CAT position -- by rule.
  • UNP: up $10/share today; up 4.6%. No change in position; currently overweight.
  • no recommendation; see disclaimers.

CAT: link here.

Energy: link here.

US crude oil record exports, link here.

TipRanks, link here. best semiconductor chip (of the three) to buy on a dip -- AMSL, AMT, or MU?

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.93.

Friday, April 26, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
None.

Thursday, April 25, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
37519, conf, BR, Mazama 2B MBH,

RBN Energy: Sentinel Midstream's Texas GulfLink emerges as serious contender in export terminal race. Archived.

In the race to build the next deepwater crude oil export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico, Sentinel Midstream’s proposed Texas GulfLink (TGL) is currently in second place in the regulatory race, behind only Enterprise’s Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) — and seems to be emerging as a serious contender. The plan offers some compelling attributes, including Sentinel’s status as an independent midstream player and plenty of pipeline access to crude oil volumes in the Permian and elsewhere. In today’s RBN blog, we turn our attention to TGL and what it brings to the table.

GDPNow: 2.7 — Previous, 2.9 — April 24, 2024

Locator: 470628GDP.

GDPNow had predicted a 1Q24 GDP in range of 2.5+%.

First reading came in at 1.6%

Wouldn't this be in line with a "soft landing"?  Beats the alternative.

Market gave us a great buying opportunity. 

No complaints from me. 

By this time next week, the number will have been forgotten.

******************************
Disclaimer -- Briefly

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

F: A Most Interesting Report -- April 24, 2024

Locator: 470627FORD.

EVs are tracked here.

Link here.

Data points and comments from the article:

  • Ford's traditional business, known as Ford Blue, reported adjusted earnings that were down 66% compared to a year earlier 
  • Ford has faced years of inflated warranty costs, which have affected its earnings
  • sales of Ford Motor trucks and other commercial vehicles led the automaker to beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates for the first quarter, offsetting losses of its electric vehicles.
  • the automaker now expects to generate adjusted free cash flow of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, up from a previous outlook of $6 billion to $7 billion. 
  • its forecast for capital expenditures is now $8 billion to $9 billion, narrower than the $8 billion to $9.5 billion range it originally estimated.
  • EPS: 49 cents adjusted vs 42 cents expected;
  • automotive revenue: $39.89 billion vs $40.10 billion expected 
  • Ford’s overall revenue for the first quarter, including its credit business, increased about 3% year over year to $42.78 billion. 
  • net income for the period was $1.33 billion, or 33 cents per share, compared with $1.76 billion, or 44 cents, a year earlier
  • adjusted EBIT declined 18% year over year to $2.76 billion, or 49 cents per share.

This report seems it was written by Phil Le Beau.

Below is the story of Ford's EV business as reported by CNN: link here.

From the linked article: 

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion, or $132,000 for each of the 10,000 vehicles it sold in the first three months of the year, helping to drag down earnings for the company overall.

Ford, like most automakers, has announced plans to shift from traditional gas-powered vehicles to EVs in coming years. But it is the only traditional automaker to break out results of its retail EV sales. And the results it reported Wednesday show another sign of the profit pressures on the EV business at Ford and other automakers.

The EV unit, which Ford calls Model e, sold 10,000 vehicles in the quarter, down 20% from the number it sold a year earlier. And its revenue plunged 84% to about $100 million, which Ford attributed mostly to price cuts for EVs across the industry. That resulted in the $1.3 billion loss before interest and taxes (EBIT), and the massive per-vehicle loss in the Model e unit.

The losses go far beyond the cost of building and selling those 10,000 cars, according to Ford. Instead the losses include hundreds of millions being spent on research and development of the next generation of EVs for Ford. Those investments are years away from paying off.

And that means this is not the end of the losses in the unit - Ford said it expects Model e will have EBIT losses of $5 billion for the full year.

The company said it is its “intention” to be have EV pricing cover the actual costs of building each EV, rather than covering all the research and development costs, within the next 12 months. But a price war among EVs for about a year and a half has made even that measure of profitability very difficult said Ford CFO John Lawler. He said while Ford has removed about $5,000 in cost on each Mustang Mach-E, “revenue is dropping faster than we can take out the cost.”

In 2023, Ford Model e reported a full-year EBIT loss of $4.7 billion on sales of 116,000 EVs, or an average of $40,525 per vehicle, just more than a third of the first quarter loss.

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Buffett Watch -- Portfolio -- April 24, 2024

Locator: 470626BUFFETT.

There was an interesting data point regarding Warren Buffett on April 22, 2024 -- by Motley Fool, two days ago.

I'm curious if anyone else saw it. 

It is very, very, very subtle but if one follows Buffett close enough it was hard not to miss. 

Hint: compare the Motley Fool article with the Buffett portfolio watch noted dated September 30, 2023. In case that link breaks or disappears, the important note is within this screenshot:

Most recent --

Kiplinger, March 7, 2024, link here.  Top fifteen holdings in the BRK equity portfolio:

It will be interesting if anyone catches this. I'll come back to this later.

******************************
So, Here We Go
This Is What Jumped Out At Me

For the past year or so, or maybe even longer, we keep hearing that AAPL makes up  41% of BRK equity portfolio. So, that 41% stands out -- it's what I remember.

But in the Motley Fool article, the author said Apple accounts for 50% of the BRK equity portfolio.


That was such a huge jump, from 41% to 50%, I wondered if Motley Fool  was "rounding up," That would be very, very unusual for Motley Fool to round up -- certainly that amount. So, I checked, and, indeed, without rounding up, AAPL now makes up 50% of BRK's equity portfolio

Interestingly I have the same problem. Not by design, but completely "by accident" my equity portfolio is way over-weighted with AAPL, but that causes at least two problems:

  • the entire portfolio moves on the volatility of AAPL; and,
  • I lean toward a "growth" portfolio and AAPL is turning the portfolio into a "value" portfolio, and worse,
    • while the rest of the tech space is doing very well, not the same can be said for AAPL.

Bottom line, AAPL, relative to the rest of BRK's equity portfolio, increased in value to the rest of the holdings. Why isn't BRK reacting to that?

In the past year, these have handily beat the money market funds:

  • UNP: up 27% in one year
  • SCCO: up 48%in one year
  • NVDA; up over 206% in one year
  • JPM: up 43% in one year

Confusing:

  •  I find it interesting that BRK is not adding to its AAPL position when shares dip; or,sell some AAPL shares on periodic jumps in the share price. 

BRK does not seem to be an actively managed portfolio.

  • When it comes to BRK, it almost appears the managers have become passive investors, taking very little active interest in managing their equity portfolio. 

More confusing

  • I have not been selling any of my AAPL shares (in fact, I'm adding to my AAPL position on huge pullbacks) but I'm adding "new money" to my equity portfolio. Warren Buffett talks about his "secret sauce," dividends, and it's amazing, at least to me, he's not using that "new money" of balance a portfolio that is clearly no longer a diversified portfolio. 

The BRK equity portfolio. Confusing -- why so many ticker symbols that are so inconsequential?

  • 50% AAPL -- one ticker
  • 42% legacy, energy -- eight ticker symbols
    • BAC: 10%
    • AXP: 8%
    • KO: 7%
    • CVX: 6%
    • OXY: 4%
    • KHC: 4%
    • MCO: 3%
    • DVA: 1%
  • which leaves 8% --  approximately 52 other ticker symbols -- each ticker symbol representing less than 1% of the portfolio and the bottom 10 each representing 0.05% or less
  • nine ticker symbols each represent 0.02% or less
  • what an unusual portfolio; it's almost as if BRK has six or seven low-tier money managers that have their hobby horses and C-suite is letting them do what they want with handful of tiny holdings.

We can discuss all the reasons why Apple went from 41% to over 50% of the portfolio in dollar value despite the number of shares of AAPL staying the same. I'm not going to to that except to say the reasons were not good, at least in my mind.

I could write a lot, but I think I will leave it at that. 

13F: link here.

The entire portfolio:

See comments.