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Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Inflation Watch -- May 8, 2024

Locator: 47105INFLATION.

Coke: currently running about $5.25 for a 6-pack, 500-ml plastic, now available at $3.00.


And "four" will last until the next sale.

Salmon:"always: $9.99 / pound for as long as we've lived in the area, now $8.99 and with a loyalty card, which we have, down to $7.99.

Investing -- May 8, 2024

Locator: 47104INV.

Unless the apple cart is upset by global geo-politics, everything suggests 2024 - 2027 could be a great few years for investors.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple

************************
The Book Page

A History of the Jews in America, Howard M. Sachar, c. 1993, should have been titled:

A History of American Capitalism and Exceptionalism

Three takeaways / comments:

  • this book should be a mandatory prerequisite for an MBA
  • Lower East Side, NYC -- an incubator for American exceptionalism
  • the degree of anti-semitism in the US is every bit as bad as the US history of slavery

Some can argue anti-semitism in the US was institutionalized to same degree as slavery and continues to exist today. In some ways, it may be getting worse. Exhibit A: two Ivy League / elite universities whose presidents have recently been removed. A third and possibly a fourth are likely revising their resumes, or their speeches in which they plan to spend more time with their families. Exhibit B: President Biden has been forced to acknowledge it / address it in major policy speeches.

*************************
A Musical Interlude

Link here.

Anticipation -- Enerplus' Value Pad -- Spotted Horn -- May 8, 2024

Locator: 47103B.

This pad is tracked here.

The wells:

  • 40409, drl/drl, Enerplus, Valiant 150-94-06B-LL, Spotted Horn,
  • 23541, IA/1,545, Enerplus, Honor 150-94-06B-18H TF, Spotted Horn, t10/14; cum 788K 8/23;
  • 40438, drl/drl, Enerplus, Strength 150-94-06B-18H, Spotted Horn,
  • 40437, drl/drl, Enerplus, Icon 150-94-06B-18H, Spotted Horn,
  • 23542, IA/1,007, Enerplus, Grace 150-94-06B-07H, Spotted Horn, t10/14; cum 426K 12/23;
  • 40436, drl/drl, Enerplus, Prowess 150-94-06B-18H, Spotted Horn,
  • 26608, IA/1,601, Enerplus, Courage 150-94-06A-18H, Spotted Horn, t10/14; cum 71K 10/23;
  • 40434, with rig, drl/drl, Enerplus, Purpose 150-94-06A-18H, Spotted Horn,
  • 26609, IA/1,703, Enerplus, Pride 150-94-06A-18H TF, Spotted Horn, t10/14; cum 661K 10/23;

The map:

Anticipation -- Petrogulf -- Antelope Three Tribes Wells -- May 8, 2024

Locator: 47102B. 

The wells:

  • 31920, conf, Petrogulf, Three Tribes 151-94-7H, Antelope,
  • 31921, conf, Petrogulf, Three Tribes 151-94-8HTF, Antelope,
  • 31922, conf, Petrogulf, Three Tribes 151-94-18HTF, Antelope,
  • 31923, conf, Petrogulf, Three Tribes 151-94-19H, Antelope,

The map:

Updating An Incredible MRO Pad In Reunion Bay -- May 8, 2024

Locator: 47101B.

These wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 34103, 7,471, MRO, Dye USA 14-14TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 504K 12/20; full production here; cum 527K 5/21; cum 545K 8/21; cum 568K 3/22; cum 570K 5/22; cum 620K 3/24; note the jump in production, 11/23 -- drilled just five years ago -- 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2024314539457339871729216789287
BAKKEN2-2024296076604841112143420812380
BAKKEN1-2024298406826745622003219323490
BAKKEN12-20233146354594266983537942313
BAKKEN11-202310668693253105498855
BAKKEN10-20230000000
BAKKEN9-20232118521848119732243066116
BAKKEN8-20233128662877182150184716241
BAKKEN7-20233122862304147844444158230
BAKKEN6-202330204520501520330432590
BAKKEN5-20233119131927140132022958200
BAKKEN4-20233018371841102029652753171
BAKKEN3-202331144914193872769262995
BAKKEN2-202328150114612183052291397
BAKKEN1-2023319359311171669160245
BAKKEN12-2022319459681311800167210
BAKKEN11-202230131013292552369218328
BAKKEN10-2022311621160174735093036151
BAKKEN9-20223012111211108510838320
BAKKEN8-20223113481345109711799010
BAKKEN7-202231145614451067192415500
BAKKEN6-2022291260123279829242251195
BAKKEN5-202241731971025264660
BAKKEN4-2022241168117356136893205105
BAKKEN3-2022312129214110884933424648
BAKKEN2-20222825232611166349123947363
BAKKEN1-2022313742369726607838686462
BAKKEN12-2021312679269827755395460349
BAKKEN11-20213026622742142366705655394
BAKKEN10-202131537053402447107878984664
BAKKEN9-20212647344814165974486233597
BAKKEN8-20213160886111189789077791335
BAKKEN7-20213162846238186737423054346
BAKKEN6-20213051775067178259625029285
BAKKEN5-202131564056422398107639348383
BAKKEN4-2021305480542839981598414336301
BAKKEN3-20213128042903136746653796326
BAKKEN2-2021285148507233211038281181148
BAKKEN1-202131434342943051103259500239
BAKKEN12-202011125813581131312029080
BAKKEN11-20202958545895447525429236920
BAKKEN10-20203164946494471828899271340
BAKKEN9-20203056645764514124638231230
BAKKEN8-20203158865857506429356218450
BAKKEN7-20203180257951562432516254260
BAKKEN6-20203079208016579135680270580
BAKKEN5-20203190909194945335712276460
BAKKEN4-2020301240312205871026672205080
BAKKEN3-20202176598048554614476110440
BAKKEN2-202028967193965538145199814234
BAKKEN1-202022693766923065694948260
BAKKEN12-2019514081596740413830980
BAKKEN11-2019271025210204480330064248080
BAKKEN10-2019311333313290568635903338610
BAKKEN9-2019241494015010852023962205191576
BAKKEN8-2019241026910394509619596525913001
BAKKEN7-201931155091540712287355121777615126
BAKKEN6-201930167791679310486359731573617768
BAKKEN5-20193122920229281658334203806923899
BAKKEN4-20193021410213991662929893548722272
BAKKEN3-201931285122855319492487011174234421
BAKKEN2-201928401914031426093606311829739263
BAKKEN1-201931583835826431530734672603943319
BAKKEN12-201816271852729622478340661589516232
BAKKEN11-2018204249443110321275539156352180
BAKKEN10-2018259290592080762411197800114397
BAKKEN9-2018318604003640354

Grapevine Lake Flooding -- May 8, 2024

Locator: 47100LAKE.

Grapevine Lake, Grapevine, Texas.

North Texas, suburb of DFW, just north of the airport.

Photograph by Kiri Nevin while paddleboarding tonight.

Rule of thumb: an inch of rain in the air will result in a one-foot rise in water level three days later.

Lately, we have had several inches of rain in the air.

Beneath these "coverings" are picnic tables. That's how much flooding there's been in the last few days.

Page Views -- May, 2024

Locator: 47099B. 

Page views:

  • tonight: 9:46 p.m. CDT, May 8, 2024: 17,821,892
  • last night: 10:00 p.m. CDT, May 7, 2024: 17,818,870
  • page views in past 24 hours: 3,022


 

 

 

Activity In East Fork -- May 8, 2024

Locator: 47098B. 

The wells:

To the east:

  • 40670, conf, CLR, Carpenter 2-13H, East Fork,
  • 40661,
  • 40671,
  • 40551,
  • 40672,
  • 40662,
  • 40673,
  • 40663,
  • 40674,
  • 40664,
  • 40675,
  • 40665, conf, CLR, Sandhill 7-24HSL, East Fork,
  • 19931, 1,257, CLR, Breitling 1-23H, East Fork, t9/11; cum 276K 3/24;
  • 20885, 359, CLR, Christopherson 156-99-2-11-1H, East Fork, t6/12; cum 294K 3/24;

To the west:

  • 40636, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 4-35H, East Fork,
  • 40557,
  • 40637,
  • 40638,
  • 40639, with rig, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 6-35H,East Fork,
  • 40640,
  • 40641, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 7-35HSL, East Fork,
  • 22866, 763, CLR, Carpenter 1-12H, East Fork, t8/12; cum 294K 3/24;
  • 18826, 516, Hess, Twilight 1-24H, East Fork, t3/11; cum 207K 3/24;

The maps:



Rockport Energy Solutions LLC

Locator: 47097B.

Operators are tracked here.

Rockport Energy Solutions LLC

  • Is this the first time Rockport Energy has been mentioned on the blog? Possibly. "Well search" over at the NDIC website suggests this as the very first permit for "Rockport Energy Solutions LLC" in North Dakota.
  • company's website;
  • company's history from its website:

 

New Operator In The Bakken -- Rockport Energy Solutions LLC -- May 8, 2024

Locator: 47096B. 

WTI: $78.99.

Active rigs: 40.

Two new permits, #40730 and #40831.

  • Operators: Oasis, Rockport Energy
  • Fields: Sorkness (Mountrail); Ranch Coulee (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has a permit for a Nordby well, NWNE 12--157-93, 
      • to be sited 324 FNL and 2433 FEL;
    • Rockport has a permit for a Camden well, SWNE 15-146-98;
      • to be sited 1485 FNL and 2085 FEL;

Eight permits renewed:

  • Grayson Mill (6): five Darlene Federal permits, Westberg oil field (McKenzie); one Orville permit, Todd oil field (Williams);
  • BR (2): two Keene permits, Little Knife (Dunn County)

Rockport Energy Solutions LLC

  • Is this the first time Rockport Energy has been mentioned on the blog? Possibly. "Well search" over at the NDIC website suggests this as the very first permit for "Rockport Energy Solutions LLC" in North Dakota.
  • company's website;
  • company's history from its website:

Done For The Day -- Will Be Back Later Tonight -- CNBC Is Re-Running Interviews From Yesterday -- May 8, 2024

Locator: 47095B. 

Good luck to all. 

But before I go, let's look at tech:

  • NVDA: down 0.71%
  • AMD: down 0.86%
  • MU: down 0.45%
  • INTC: down 2.99%
  • QCOM: down 0.4%
  • AVGO: up 1.53%

And then music, fashion, and health:

  • AAPL: up 0.063%

Bill Baruch just bought more AAPL.  Also bought more AMGN. Whoo-hoo!

AMGN: up 0.98%.

SRE: Wow, I missed this. Climbing the wall of worry. Up 1.34% today. Trading at $75. Not long ago it was trading for $66 (April 16, 2024). Are you kidding me? $66 less than a month ago? Now trending to break through $75. I can take Sophia shopping tonight. LOL.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

Economy on fire! GDPNow! Link here. 4.2! Was 3.3 on May 2, 2024.

I just don't get it. CNBC talking heads seem more interested in a rate cut (LOL) than a booming economy. Give me that binary choice, and it's a booming economy every time.

Longest, most spectacular bull market in history.

*************************
The Book Page

From A History Of The Jews In America, Howard M. Sachar, 1993, pp. 336- 337.

Like Macy's, Sears Roebuck was not founded by Jews ... Richard Sears sold a $75,000 half-interest in his company to Aaron Nusbaum -- of ice-cream concession fame at the 1893 Chicago World's Columbian Exposition  -- to hedge his investment, Nusbaum in turn sold half his interest to a brother-in-law, Julius Rosenwald ... the son of a Westphalian immigrant who had graduated from peddler to clothing-store proprietor ... 

... when Richard Sears retired in 1908, Rosenwald, as company chairman, moved vigorously to open scores of retail outlets .. propelled Sears into first place among the nation's mass-merchandising operations .. financial integrity ... the name Sesars Roebuck had become perhaps the most respected in American retail business.

From Otto Kahn to Simon Guggenheim to Albert Lasker these financially successful Central European Jews turned almost instinctively to philanthropy as the appropriate expression of their gratitude to the American people.

Yet no Jewish millionaire quite matched the record of Julius Rosenwald, either in munificence or sheer breadth of social compassion.

Deeply moved by Booker T. Washington's autobiography, Up from Slavery, Rosenwald determined to contribute a major portion of his resources to black education.

In accordance with his "seed-corn" approach, he offered to donate half the cost of a new school for blacks to any southern community whose citizens would raise the other half. The inducement worked. Private citizens and 83 county governments in 15 southern states ultimately shared with Rosenwald the costs of constructing 5,347 black schools and colleges

Other projects of Rosenwald's included research and experimental medical programs for middle-class patients.

Form the clinics he established at the University of Chicago emerged the Blue Cross health-insurance program. 

Interspersed withRosenwald's social-welfare undrtakings were occasional bloc gifts to the city of Chicago, the Universitiy of Chicago, the Chicago Hebrew Institute, the Zionist agricultural experiment station in Athlit, Palestine, and fully $3.6 million contributed to the Joint Distribution Committee, including the JDC's Agro-Joint program in the Soviet Union. 

Not least of all, at Rosenwald's instructions, the entirety of this $70-mlllion charity foundation was expended within twenty-five years of his death. It was twic the amount he had left his own family.

And then, a few pages later, post WWII, "from Cold War to belle epoque" -- page 641 ...

The wealth of the German-Jewish veterans no longer shimmered in pristine inaccessibility.

Neither any longer did it dominate as wide a spectrum of the American-Jewish economy.

By the 1950s, German-Jewish leadership remained primus inter pares only in its traditional sectors of investment banking and department-store merchandising.

In the former, most notably, that influence continued pre-eminent at least for two decades.

Lehman Brothers had burgeoned out as a leading Wall Street power after it joined with Goldman, Sachs in its renowned public offering for the  Sears, Roebuck company (owned by Sachs' cousin-in-law Julius Rosenwald).

Afterward the two banking houses jointly underwrote a series of venture companies that became household words, including Woolworth, Continental Can, and Studebaker.

Althoug the formal relationship between Goldman, Sachs and Lehman Brothers ended in the late 1920s, each house continued to flourish on its own.

*********************
Commentary

It should not escape the reader that overlaying the "Jewish American story" with the "longest, most spectacular bull market in history" morphs into the Warren Buffett playbook. Period. Dot.

************************
It's Already Begun

Weekly Petroleum Report -- May 8, 2024

Locator: 47094WTI.

Weekly petroleum report, link here:

  • US crude oil storage decreased 1.4 million bbls; remains 3% below the five-year average;
  • refiners: 88.5%
  • jet fuel supplied: up 3.5% from one year ago

SPR:

  • a few days ago, Biden administration said WTI priced too high to refill the SPR at this time
  • then, DOE grilled by Congress on low storage of crude oil
  • yesterday, Biden administration reverses itself and says it will solicit 3.3 million bbls to add back to the SPR
  • 3.3 / 460 = 0.7% -- inconsequential; it's simply about money
  • link here and here;

Apple ad, link here and here.

"Boring Is Good For Bull Markets" -- Mike Santoli -- May 8, 2024

Locator: 47093B.

Longest, most spectacular bull market in history.



*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.07.

Thursday, May 9, 2024: 12 for the month; 76 for the quarter, 275 for the year
40117, conf, Neptune Operating, Heen 35-26 5H,
39468, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-LE-157-93-1522H-1,
37107, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3B MBH, 

Wednesday, May 8, 2024: 9 for the month; 73 for the quarter, 272 for the year
40119, conf, Neptune Operating, Heen South 5-8-17 7H,

RBN Energy: cut in Mexican crude exports has US refiners looking for alternatives.

Mexico’s efforts to start up the newest addition to its refining system — the Olmeca refinery — are causing headaches for global buyers of its crudes. Few are convinced that the plant near the country’s key Dos Bocas oil port is ready for service. Yet its operator, PetrĂ³leos Mexicanos (Pemex), surprised many with cuts to its crude exports in April, which were reportedly made to ensure the complex will have enough feedstock and could continue through 2024. In today’s RBN blog, we will discuss what led to the export cuts, the implications for importers, and potential replacement options.

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Anticipation: Earnings On Tap -- May 7, 2024

Locator: 47092EARNINGS.

Reminder tomorrow:

Reminder, today:

Look at that, tomorrow, anticipation: ERF, STR, OMG.

*************************
The Book Page

This week, I'm continuing to read A History of the Jews in America, Howard M. Sacher, c. 1993.

Absolutely fascinating. A great summer / beach book.

US Jobs And Women -- May 7, 2024

Locator: 47091JOBS.

Link here.

So, let's fact check that. Yup, that's true.

From Axios:

Five New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 7, 2024

Locator: 47090B.

WTI: $78.31.

Active rigs: 40.

Five new permits, #40724 - #40728, inclusive:

  • Operators: Phoenix Operating (4); Oasis
  • Fields: Burg (Divide County); Eightmile (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Phoenix Operating has permits for four Axel Ferrari wells, SESW 24-160-99, 
      • to be sited 330 FSL and between 1366 FWL and 1486 FWL
    • Oasis has a permit for yet another Aune Federal well, lot 3, section 30-153-102, 
      • to be sited 2546 FNL and 340 FWL

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported to be completed:

  • 39542, 3,159, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26H, Banks,
  • 39985, 4,109, MRO, Westrum 14-16H, Jim Creek,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20243124015239663893816426152671105
BAKKEN2-202451088910858176387158710138
  • 40065, n/d, MRO, Coombs 11-2H, Killdeer,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20243117345172655365514066122651717
BAKKEN2-2024500152000

Earnings Announcements After Market Close -- CRC, OXY, CHRD -- May 7, 2024

Locator: 47089EARNINGS.

Reminder, today:

Look at that, today, anticipation: CHRD, OXY, CRC, OMG. 

OXY: Ticker today: flat during normal trading hours; flat after hours pending announcement; earnings report here. EPS: 75 cents.

OXY is scheduled to release first-quarter 2024 results on May 7, after market close. In the last four reported quarters, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 3.39%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 56 cents per share on revenues of $6.7 billion.
The top and bottom-line estimates suggest a decline of 7.7% and 48.6%, respectively, from a year ago. Missed on sales. Ticker down in after hour trading. Wow, you just get the feeling that nothing is going right for Buffett right now.

CRC:  Ticker today: up slightly during normal trading hours; flat after hours pending announcement;

California Resources Corporation Common Stock is expected to report earnings on 05/07/2024 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Mar 2024. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 2 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.58. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $2.63.

Link here for earnings.


CHRD: after market close; consensus EPS, $4.81; consensus revenue estimate is $766.26 mllion. Ticker today: up slightly during normal trading hours; flat after hours pending announcement; earnings here. Dividend: all in — $2.94.

NPUs -- May 7, 2024

Locator: 47088AAPL.

Biggest takeaways from this mornings iPad release announcement:

  • CPUs, GPUs, and NPUs
  • 3-nm technology

Link here

Apple M4:

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Inflation Watch -- May 7, 2024

Locator: 47087INFLATION.

12-pack, 12-oz bottles. 

$12.99 / 2 = $6.50 / six-pack.

That seems less than upwards of $11.99 / six-pack often seen not too long ago. Just saying.

*****************
The Book Page 

Tolstoy, War and Peace, "... every army moves on waves of ignorance and misinformation."

Norman Mailer remembered having read that when writing The Naked and the Dead.

Then, epitomized in the Coen Bros Burn After Reading.

Apple Special Event -- May 7, 2024

Locator: 47086AAPL.

Updates

May 7, 2024: what's wrong with the iPad? Opinion at Bloomberg. I love my iPad. I use it for entertainment. When I want to work, I use my laptop. In a world of apps, it's all about the iPad. 

Original Post

Biggest takeaways:

  • CPUs, GPUs, and NPUs
  • 3-nm technology

Apple Special Event. On Safari, apple.com. On now.

Starts with quick update / review by Tim Cook.

MacBook Air: world's best-selling 13-inch laptop and 15-inch laptop.

iPad: an amazing device in all respects. Great versatility. Huge updates today:
"GoodNotes" and iPencil -- for college students
streaming and social media with high resolution 


new iPad Air

  • first time ever, two sizes
    • 11-inch: updates
    • 13-inch: all new
  • M2
    • includes neural engine
  • 128GB
  • $599 and $799
  • order today; available next week

new iPad Pro

  • 256 GB
    • $999 and $1299 
    • can be ordered today; available next week
  • features Cher song at introduction! Brilliant!
    • and not just a few seconds
  • two sizes
    • new 11-inch
    • new 13-inch
  • 5.1 mm thin; and 5.3 mm thin
    • thinnest Apple product ever
  • 0.98 lb and 1.28 lb
  • OLED to iPad for the very first time
    • tandem OLED: two OLED panels to get full-screen brightness
    • breakthrough visual quality
    • ultra retina XDR 
    • nano-texture glass option: even less glare for high-end users
  • Apple silicon
    • from M2 to M4 -- wow, leaped past M3
    • introducing M4
    • second-generation 3-nm technology
    • CPU: four performance cores; 6 efficiency cores
    • 10-core GPU
    • uses half the power of M2
    • same performance of non-Apple with one-fourth the power
    • NPUs -- Apple has been adding neural engines for years; rest of industry just now starting to add NPUs
    • 38 trillion operations per second
    • need to explore the M4 more
  • iPadOS
    • Proapps
  • creativity
    • Final Cut Pro
    • Logic Pro
  • Cameras and microphones
    • 12 MP camera
  • new Magic Keyboard

Apple Pencil

  • entirely new Apple Pencil being introduced
  • Apple Pencil Pro
  • supports "Find My" -- wow!!! Absolutely needed!

College generation now talking about taking entire Apple Suite into the college library:

  • laptop
  • tablet
  • smart phone
  • watch





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