The Market -- March 14, 2025

Locator: 48508MARKET.

Schwab. Link here.

The market. Link here.

EPA. Link here.

Beth. Link here. SoftBank, OpenAI, LDC, Japan.

Chevron. Link here.

Copper. Link here. Beating gold.

Apple: M4 MacBook Air is already on sale. Link here.

Musk wins again. xAI is now expected to remain the #1 AI model through the end of the ... March, April, and, June. Link here.

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Schwab

Link above.

Shares of the wealth management company ended Friday up 4.9% compared with a 2.1% gain for the S&P 500.

Shares of Schwab and other financial companies have struggled recently amid a broad decline in equity markets as investors weigh the impact of tariffs, inflation, and potentially slower economic growth. The S&P 500 has fallen 4%, and the Vanguard Financials Index Fund ETF, which tracks a broad index of financial stocks, is down 0.9%.

On Friday, Schwab said it hauled in $48 billion in core net new assets during February, a 44% increase from the $33.4 billion the company reported for February 2024. For January, Schwab reported $30.6 billion. Schwab’s monthly asset figures are closely watched by shareholders and analysts who are looking for signs of further growth. Schwab’s new CEO, Rick Wurster, has emphasized plans to grow the business this year.

I wonder if readers know ....

Seasonal Flu Update -- March 14, 2025

Locator: 48507FLU.

Link here.

Two important graphs for the archives.

Devon With Permits For Eight Wells In Wolf Bay -- Dunn County -- March 14, 2025

Locator: 48506B.

From today's daily active report.

Eight new permits, #41702 - #41709, inclusive:

• Operator: Devon Energy Williston
• Field: Wolf Bay (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Devon Energy has permits for eight Clark South wells, NWSE 34-147-92; 
• to be sited 1326 / 1521 FSL and 1945 / 2023 FEL;

Example, #41702:

The maps:

The existing wells in the area:

• 34052, 2,480, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HZ, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 597K 1/25; AL;
• 34494, 2,115, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HF, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 319K 1/25; AL;
• 34495, 2,429, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HY, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 436K 1/25; AL;
• 34053, 2,395, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HT, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 354K 1/25; AL;
• 34815, 2,328, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HIL, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 492K 1/25; AL;
• 34051, 3,477, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HD, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 332K 1/25; F;

Week 11: March 11, 2025 -- March 17, 2025

Locator: 48505TOPSTORIES.

Top story:

• Democratic Party implodes (favorability rating: 29%; record low; unprecedented; link here)
• Musk's Dragon 2 / NASA Crew-10 dock safely with the ISS. Boeing CEO watches (needs to be fact-checked).
  

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Top Stories

Geoff Simon's quick connects.

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The First 100 Days
January 20, 2025 - April 30, 2025

Eighth Week Of President Trump's Presidency

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The Top Stories

Most important story of the week: where was Pete Buttigieg?

• the FAA's preliminary report clearly shows blood on Buttigieg's hands
• where was Buttigieg?
• preliminary report released this past week, March 11, 2025
  
• NY Times reporting: link here.
• last major story on this crash in TNYT: February 13, 2025, according to NY Times own search engine
• "mid-air crash was years in the making" -- Buttigieg -- years as Secretary DOT prior to crash.
• Michael Whitacre: resume suggests he was eminently qualified to lead the FAA; what happened?
• interesting how little this story is gaining interest by mainstream media
• Buttigieg broke the cardinal rule of a Secretary of DOT. 
  

Top story of the week:

• The GOP spending bill to prevent a government shutdown passes easily
• Democrats implode: lowest favorability rating (29%) since 1922
  
• Schumer vs AOC; Old Guard vs the New Progressives
  
• Schumer: real-politik
• New Progressives: no clue
  
• AOC: setting herself up as the next Nancy Pelosi
  
• Hakeem Jeffries sets to distance himself from Schumer
• Democrats struggling to even name a credible Democrat spokesperson
  

Top international non-energy story:

• rift between US and traditional allies widens
  
• Ukraine-Russia closer to ceasefire; Trump / Putin "hold all the cards"
• Trump re-designates Houthis as terrorist group (Biden had taken them of the terrorist list, reversing Trump's first term designation); says today's strike is the beginning of a sustained (five-day?) mission to take out Houthi targets
• US-Israel: letting Iran know its on borrowed time if Iran does not cooperate; Israel feels time is right to take out Iran's nuclear sites.
  

Top international energy story:

•  Saudi budget requires $90-oil; oil currently around $70 / bbl
  

Top national non-energy story:

• Measles outbreak in southwest US continues to spread
  
• officially, 259 cases in Texas / New Mexico; actual numbers believed to be much higher.
  
• so far vaccine seems to "be working"; only two "fully-vaccinated" individuals diagnosed with measles 
• Texas families relying on advice of RFK, Jr: cod liver oil and vitamin A; the latter in short supply in west Texas; source: NYT.
  
• US Senator John Fetterman is a breath of fresh air; can one imagine Dr Oz in his place?
• Apple imploded; failed in AI; deep trouble; won't be solved any time soon; reputation at stake.
• Rory McIlroy wins the Players Championship on a St Patrick's Day three-hole playoff in spectacular fashion.
  

Top national energy story:

• Harold Hamm warns shale operators cannot survive on $60-oil

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• 
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

Friday EOD Report -- March 14, 2025

Locator: 48504B.

WTI: $67.18.

Active rigs: 32.

Eight new permits, #41702 - #41709, inclusive:

• Operator: Devon Energy Williston
• Field: Wolf Bay (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Devon Energy has permits for eight Clark South wells, NWSE 34-147-92; 
• to be sited 1326 / 1521 FSL and 1945 / 2023 FEL;

CR --> No, NOT CCR But CR -- March 14, 2025

Locator: 48503POLITICS.

There is no question national news media are going to have a blockbuster four years, financially.

Breaking: CR passes: 54 - 46. Along party lines with three exceptions. Politico today is very, very interesting, and worth a read!

Breaking:  Dem Senators Durbin, Schatz, Hassan, and Peters vote to advance GOP spending bill (continuing resolution -- CR).

If the CR passes -- deadline is tomorrow night, midnight, my thoughts:

• this was way too easy;
• has anyone even read the CR?
• has any newspaper (NYT, Washington Post, others) even published the major pieces of the CR?
• will anyone even care?
• will MAGA be disappointed that the government wasn't shut down?
• strange bedfellows with regard to the CR: MAGA, AOC
• Hakeem Jeffries: the US House did its part; why didn't Schumer?
  

Process update: US Senate voted 62-38 on a procedural vote to "keep the lights on." Link here. Friday afternoon, March 15, 2025. Ten democrats voted to move the process along. The math suggests one GOP senator voted against moving the process along. The only Republican to vote against the CR: Rand from Kentucky. The ten democrats:

• Schumer
• Durbin
• Masto (NV)
• Fetterman (PA)
• Gillibrand (NY)
• Hassan (NH)
• King (I-ME)
• Peters (MI)
• Schatz (HI)
• Shaheen (NH)

Four amendments:

• three amendments need 60 votes:
• one amendment needs a simple majority;
• the amendments:
• Van Hollen, D-MD: eliminate DOGE
• Duckworth, D-IL: reinstate veterans who were fired from federal jobs [defeated 47 - 53]
  
• Paul, R-KY: codify DOGE's cuts to foreign aid (needs simple majority)
• Merkley, D-OR: limit some of the bill's rescissions [defeated 47 - 53)

Headlines:

Daughter Well Prodution Jumps 10x -- Parshall Oil Field -- March 14, 2025

Locator: 48502B.

Coming off confidential list this weekend, one well on a four-well pad, sited in SESE 31-154-89:

• 40030, conf, Hunt Oil, Oakland 154-89-31-30H 3, Parshall oil field. It's still on confidential but likely to be a one-section well:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	12837	6513
12-2024	22402	7677
11-2024	25252	11775
10-2024	33571	14523
9-2024	16828	7006

The parent well in that section, still producing:

• 17012, 629, Hunt Oil, Moen 1-31H, Parshall, t6/08; cum 425K 1/25: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2025	31	5013	5056	2054	2565	2077	0
BAKKEN	12-2024	31	6338	6285	2833	2663	2173	0
BAKKEN	11-2024	30	6396	6372	3209	2506	2032	0
BAKKEN	10-2024	31	6658	6718	4428	2507	2017	0
BAKKEN	9-2024	30	7654	7651	4745	2703	2153	114
BAKKEN	8-2024	31	9009	8952	7738	2800	2163	147
BAKKEN	7-2024	16	1938	1958	5638	447	105	198
BAKKEN	6-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2024	30	596	620	198	825	344	7
BAKKEN	4-2024	12	299	229	138	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	564	747	195	757	296	0
BAKKEN	2-2024	29	610	450	195	684	300	0
BAKKEN	1-2024	28	692	709	225	756	357	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	29	543	523	630	549	226	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	638	821	208	878	339	78
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	560	383	172	778	263	39
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	724	708	225	949	488	0

TGIF -- March 14, 2025

Locator: 48501B.

USPS: to cut 10,000 jobs! OMG. Links everywhere and not one story provided the denominator.

• total USPS employee count: 640,469 (2023)
• of which 115,000 ar`e non-career
• 10,000 to be cut
• 10,000 / 640,469 = 1.56%
• in other words, if a meeting for local USPS employees was called in Bismarck, ND, to explain the cuts:
• 100 employees in the audience
• of the 100 employees in the audience, 18 would be non-career
• of the 100 employees, onepointsix (1.6) employees would be cut and because one can't cut 0.6 employees, it's possible two employees out of that 100 would be cut; or possibly one, or even more likely none. 
• and if one employee or two employees were cut, it might be non-career employees 
• in other words, this "top story" is not even "a story" and it won't even begin to make a dent in the USPS debt. 
• cost of a first-class forever stamp? 73 cents.
  

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $66.94.

New wells:

• Sunday, March 16, 2025: 41 for the month, 157 for the quarter, 157 for the year,
• 40866, conf, BR, West Kellogg 4B-MBH-B,
• 40302, conf, Hess, GO-John-156-98-0508H-2,
• 40033, conf, Hunt Oil, Shell 153-89-5-8H 1,
• 40030, conf, Hunt Oil, Oakland 154-89-31-30H 3, Parshall oil field, see this post;
  
• Saturday, March 15, 2025: 37 for the month, 153 for the quarter, 153 for the year,
• 41050, conf, BR, Phantom Backbone 7D-ULW,
• Friday, March 14, 2025: 36 for the month, 152 for the quarter, 152 for the year,
• 40875, conf, Oasis, Barnes Federal 5202 43-11 3B,

RBN Energy: PADD 4 pipeline connections, higher output help it balance crude market. Archived.

The Rocky Mountain region (PADD 4), with a population that is both smaller and more spread out than other parts of the Lower 48, consumes only around 650 Mb/d of refined products — just one-fourth the volume of the next-smallest PADD. That limits the need for refinery capacity, which matches the region’s average annual consumption and is only outstripped in the summer months. Yet, the Shale Revolution has impacted the Rockies as much as any other region, boosting production in the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) and Uinta basins, and the Montana portion of the Bakken. At the same time, the area has also seen increasing volumes coming in from PADD 2 and Canada. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at how PADD 4 dispenses these barrels and its role in balancing continental crude oil supply and demand. 

In Part 1 of this series, we explained how the U.S. is divided between five Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts, or PADDs (see Figure 1 below). With no production to call its own, PADD 1 relies on imported crude oil to supply its shrinking refinery base. But the East Coast’s population density also makes it the largest consumer of refined products. In Part 2, we put the spotlight on PADD 2 and how a 10% tariff on U.S. imports of Canadian crude oil could impact refineries in the Midwest and Great Plains. PADD 2 pipelines transport most Canadian exports, and its 25 refineries (combined capacity of 4.3 MMb/d) are, in many cases, significant consumers of heavy and light crudes from up north. In our PADD 3 blog, we looked at the critical role the Gulf Coast plays in crude oil and refined products markets, with its refineries being, on average, the most efficient and cost-advantaged in the world and its geography and infrastructure providing it ample export opportunities.

Figure 1. U.S. PADD Map. Source RBN

Today, we will look at PADD 4, the Rockies, a region without much refined product consumption but which has been expanding its crude oil production since the Shale Revolution. The five states in the Rockies consume about 650 Mb/d, which is evenly matched with its 644 Mb/d of in-region refinery capacity (see Figure 2 below). A little less than a third of that, 209 Mb/d, is in the Salt Lake City area, positioning “The Crossroads of the West” as PADD 4’s top refining center. Close behind is Billings, MT, host to 191 Mb/d of refinery capacity, which benefits from Canadian crude oil imports. The rest of the region’s capacity is spread across Colorado, Montana and Wyoming, with the largest refinery in the region being in Commerce City, CO. However, it is actually a combination of two or three smaller refineries, depending on how you count them.