What Will Invading Gaza Strip With Hundreds Of Israeli Tanks Accomplish In A Guerilla War? October 10, 2023

Locator: 45719ISRAEL.

Apparently, the Israelis are "softening" the Gaza Strip from the air while massing hundreds of tanks along the Gaza Strip / Israeli border preparing for a major invastion.

How in the world does one "fight" a guerilla war with tanks?

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to sort out the first step.

Hint here:

Second hint: every US airport and every military air strip does what I'm suggesting / thinking.

Manhattan Island vs Gaza strip:

• length: both about 25 miles long
• width:
• Manhattan Island: 2.3 miles wide; less than half the width of Gaza Strip
• Gaza Strip: 6 miles wide
• population
• Manhattan: 1.6 million people (I don't know if that's residing population or residing population plus daily, commuting workers)
• Gaza Strip: 2.0 million
• density:
• Manhattan: 75,000 per square mile
  
• Gaza Strip: 15,000 per square mile
  

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For The Archives

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Meanwhile

My hunch: she supports live-birth abortions, also.

Russian Foreign Exchange Reserves -- September, 2023

Locator: 45718RUSSIA.

Link here.

Goldman Sachs Dallas Campus -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45717TECH.

Goldman Sachs -- new Dallas campus.

Missed Again? BRK / Warren Buffett -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45717TECH.

Link here. 

This is the company that Warren Buffet can't seem to sell fast enough.

Pemex Update -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45716B.

Link here.

Tomorrow? If You Know, You Know -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45715B.

Updates

October 11, 2023: Dan Pickering --

Link here: confirmed here and a great thread. Javier Blas.

Original Post

Link here.

Reminder: Disclaimer -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45714B.

I haven't posted the full disclaimer in a long time.

A short summary -- a very, very short summary -- is also in the sidebar to the right. 

Full disclaimer here. Follow the "welcome" link at the top of the page.

Briefly:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

NOG: Pricing Of Public Offering Of Common Stock -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45714NOG.

Link here. 

NOG: 93.02 million shares outstanding; link here.

7.475 million shares being offered in new offering. Link here.

7.475 / 93.02 = 8%.

At close, today: up 0.82%; up 33 cents; trading at $40.82.

After hours, after announcement, down 3.97%; down $1.62; trading at $39.20.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Active Rigs Jump To 36 In North Dakota -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45713B.

Covid: Florida / DeSantis lose; settle lawsuit; will pay attorneys fees. Court rules state must release Covid-19 data relating to 2021 infections and vaccination data. 

The state and Desantis had argued for two years that such information did not exist. Legal fees: $152,250.

As one wag cleverly said, "it's only illegal if one is caught." And, "if you contemplate doing something illegal, know the risk." I first learned about these calculations during the Clinton administration.

In this case: $152,250. Seems like a small price to pay if one wants to hide something.

Covid: new cases, USA:

 Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $85.97.

Three new permits, #40245 - #40247, inclusive:

• Operators: Empire North Dakota (2); Hunt Oil
• Fields: Starbuck (Bottineau); Ross (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Empire North Dakota -- getting quite active -- has permits for two wells, a Walleye and a Pike, SESW 32-161-78; 
• Walleye to be sited 155 FSL and 2500 FWL; Pike to be sited 1220 FSL and 2500 FWL;
• Hunt has a permit for a Palermo MCNIC well, SESE 21-156-90, 
• to be sited 1285 FSL and 400 FEL

Three permits renewed:

• MRO: all in Lot 2 section 6-150-93; a Cecelia USA, Reunion Bay; a Riley USA and a Bracklin USA both in Antelope oil field; and all three in Mountrail County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38986, 960, CLR, Kiefel 3-26H,
• 39738, 734, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-36-25H,

How Would You Like To Be The Economist That Predicts 1970s-Style Stagflation The Day The Newest GDP Estimate Is Released? October 10, 2023

Locator: 45712GDP.

Wow, I love to blog. If I didn't blog, I wouldn't be following this "stuff" at all. I would probably have a life.

Disclaimer: the actual "GDP" number always seems to be a whole less than the estimates. So, take this latest estimate with a grain of salt.

Link here.

This is just amazing. 

The "newest" estimate was just released. And ... drum roll ... it was better than the estimate from five days ago, jumping from 4.9% to 5.1% -- clearly the best GDP in the world, and if this is the only blue dot in the universe, this is the best GDP in the universe. Certainly better than Palestine's GDP. Which, if the Israelis have anything to say about it, will be negative by the end of the year no matter how much money the Biden administration flies in by C-130 or Iran drones in. LOL. New verb ... did you all catch that?

But I digress. The new estimate:

Most amazing, Trump's bank just hinted at 1970s-style stagflation.

The link (no, I'm not going to give it; if interested, you can find it).

The MarketStreet article was so bad on so many levels.The headline mentioned "stagflation," but if the article did mention the word, I missed it. And if it did, the writer, probably a robot, never even defined "1970s-style-stagflation," a British term, not an American term. 

Quick: what are the three components of "stagflation" and which ones (singular or plural) has/have suggested "stagflation"? Spoiler alert: none.

I have a rebuttal to that article -- it's very, very, very long -- I posted it briefly this morning but have since put it in draft form waiting for the Bank of Atlanta's newest GDP estimate for 3Q23.

I don't think I will post my rebuttal because there's no news in the pseudo prediction made by Trump's bank. We all agree there will be a recession. We're all going to be correct; we've all predicted a recession. 

Of the two percent of all Americans that follow the economy as closely as Steve Liesman, all agree that there will be a recession. No one says precisely when we will see that recession which has now been predicted at least since 2011 but we all agree that there will be a recession. Just as we all agree that the Cowboys won't be going to the Super Bowl any time soon.

Because of Covid, I don't consider anything of an economic basis between 2020 and 2022 very relevant, so if there was recession somewhere between 2020 and 2022, es macht nichts. Anyone can manufacture a recession by shutting down the entire country for two years.

But again, I digress.

For the record:

• GDP estimate for 3Q23 has increased once again; 
• again, the highest in the universe, and,
• that recession that we will have has moved to the right, again.

It gets tedious.

Israel Orders Chevron To Shut Down Gas Platform Near Gaza -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45711ISRAEL.

Link here.

Unlike Ukraine, this action in Gaza won't take quite as long, regardless of whether the US is willing to help or not. My understanding is that the US House is not fully committed to helping the Israelis. At least that's my impression. Right now, members of the US House are more concerned with ... well, you know.

Israel also shuts down underwater pipeline from Israel to Egypt. Israel will provide natural gas to Egypt via another pipeline. Link here.

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Williams (WMB) Prevails Over ET

It's only in the millions -- no "billion-dollar-handle" -- but still -- half a billion dollars -- good for them.

From Bloomberg's daily legal briefing:

Tech -- Daimler, AMD -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45710TECH.

Nvidia: remains the gold standard. But there's nothing wrong with being #2. It should be noted that AMD's CEO is on record stating she doesn't believe in moats. For the record, I'm a huge believer in moats, and in the tech industry, the biggest moat is a huge cash horde and a huge market cap.

Daimler: huge, huge deal for tire manufacturers.

Stagflation -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45709ECON.

Stagflation: definition -- inflation, static/declining economic growth, rising unemployment. Wiki.

Links below in order of number of "hits" by readers (popularity of posts):

June 22, 2023: 

• the US is in an incredibly good place;
• stay-flation, not stagflation.
• expect a very, very scary summer.

April 16, 2022:

• I think I've been hearing this for the past two years -- stagflation this year, or next year, or maybe the year after that. 
• Unlike defined metrics for a recession, there are no defined metrics for a stagflation. Apparently it's like pornography: economists know it when they see it.  
• I was curious. How far back -- in modern history -- have economists been warming about stagflation? 
• From The Los Angeles Times June 16, 2011, over a decade ago.

March 6, 2022:

• One more reason I'm not worried about stagflation. We're gonna have inflation but not "stag."
• With surging economy coming out of the Covid-19 lock downs, growth has got to slow down, but growth quarter-over-quarter coming out of a world war or a Covid-19 lock down is less important than comparing historical growth, year-over-year or "four-year periods-over-four-year periods."
• According to the definition of stagflation above, Iain Macleod was concerned about three things: inflation, a slowing growth rate; and unemployment that remains steadily high. Two of those three bother me, and one much more than the other.
• I don't know anything about macro-economics but I would rather track these three with regard to stagflation: inflation, labor productivity, and unemployment. 

October 7, 2021:

• Stagflation: this is my pet peeve. A few weeks ago, this was a "thing" on CNBC -- 
• although CNBC seems to have moved on; not mentioning stagflation much any more
• there are a couple of different definitions of stagflation
•  I don't see either definition being met by current use of the word "stagflation" by CNBC talking heads
• at least one definition of "stagflation": a key component of "stagflation" is the concept of unemployment

October 11, 2021:

• Stagflation: Jim Cramer takes contrarian view on "stagflation." His views are in line with mine which I have posted. Bottom line: neither he nor I are concerned about "stagflation." 
• Stagflation: headline story today Goldman lowered GDP projections. Scary headline. But did anyone report the numbers? Here they are. Be sure to sit down before looking at this huge Goldman Sachs cut when they revised their 2021 / 2022 GDP forecast:

• for 2021: previous, 5.7%; revised, 5.6% -- give me a break; that's a headline story?
• for 2022: previous, 4.4%; revised, 4% -- ditto. 

July 8, 2022: 

• Jobs report: expectations and analysis. The WSJ. Before the numbers are reported.
• Actual: 372,000! Wow, wow, wow.
• Market will collapse. Put more pressure on Fed to keep raising rates.
• Participation rate: pretty much unchanged, around 62%.
• Interest rate has moved up. Ten-year treasury at 3.07% yield.  
• Unemployment rate stays unchanged at 3.6%. 
• Steve Liesman does not see report at inflationary.
• "some recession that we're having" (agree completely)
• a recession with 3.6% unemployment and 372,000 jobs added? 
• certainly not stagflation yet
• suddenly not worried about recession 

October 12, 2021: 

• Definition: In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment. Wikipedia.
• But now, we're talking about depression? LOL.

November 1, 2022:

• The term "stagflation" introduced by a Brit. The Brits are hypersensitive to high unemployment; the Americans hypersensitive to high inflation.
• September, 2022, numbers: employment in the US continues to surge even as the Fed raises rates to try to kill employments; third-consecutive-75-bp increase in the "Fed rate." Market takes it in stride. 
• WTI: up over 2%, trading at $88.37.
• Market suggests most investors still concerned about recession.

We'll quit here. 

October 10, 2023, for the US:

• inflation is moderating; dropped from an incredible 10% to 3%;
• unemployment: record lows;
• productivity (GDP): highest in the western world; above 4%, and growth, q/q;
  

 Unemployment, link here, October 10, 2023. During a recession I like to follow U-1, not U-3:

Disney: Child's Tickets Reduced In Price -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45708DIS.

ZeroHedge: their take, here. I find this absolutely amazing, going into the holidays. I was so skeptical, I did a google search:

Nvidia:

Rivian:

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In 'N Out Comes To School

Autumn fling event. Sophia's elementary school.

Appalachia Update -- Pipeline-Constrained -- Winter Coming -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45707B.

Skies: wow, what a gorgeous morning. Absolutely clear skies and just before dawn: bright crescent moon and Venus to the northeast, and Jupiter, a bit smaller but just as bright to the southwest.

Sales: Amazon, Walmart, Target and other large retailers launched US sales, dangling discounts on narrow selections of merchandise more than six weeks before Black Friday, one of the biggest shopping days of the year.

Renewables funds (investing): record outflow as rising rates, costs hit shares. Link here. The energy transition is over; we just don't know it yet. -- Peter Zeihan.

Smith and Wesson: new headquarters opened in Maryville, TN -- just half an hour from Knoxville, TX, and just minutes west from ... Springfield, TN. Previous home for S&W? Springfield, Massachusetts.

GM (investing): another workers' strike -- this time in Canada. Barron's. Fifteen percent is a long, long way from 40%.

Unifor workers at Ford ratified a new agreement in late September. The margin was relatively thin with 54% of workers voting yes. The deal included base wage increases of roughly 15% to 20% over the life of the three-year contract. It also included “significant increases to retirement programs including raised pension benefit rate and increased contributions,” according to Ford.

MNF: Green Bay loses to Las Vegas. 

Ledecky: nothing new here. I just don't want folks to forget about her as she prepares for the 2024 Olympics.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $86.02

Wednesday, October 11, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 596 for the year
39453, conf, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 3-2H,
39334, conf, CLR, Hegler 7-13H1,
38834, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-344-2H,

Tuesday, October 10, 2023: 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter, 593 for the year
39335, conf, CLR, Hegler 8-13H,

RBN Energy: Appalachia gas basis outlook in a pipeline-constrained world.

Appalachian natural gas producers and marketers are adapting to a new status quo — a world where new pipeline takeaway capacity out of the Northeast is hard to come by and is more or less capped ad infinitum. Without the assurance of pipeline expansions, regional gas producers are no longer drilling with abandon in hopes that the capacity will eventually get built. Instead, producers are practicing restraint by slowing drilling activity, delaying completions and choking back producing wells to manage their inventory during periods of lower demand and prices. In today’s RBN blog, we consider what this new playbook will mean for pricing trends in the supply basin.

PSA: Holiday Sales Begin Today -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45706RETAIL.

Amazon, Walmart, Target and other large retailers launched US sales, dangling discounts on narrow selections of merchandise more than six weeks before Black Friday, one of the biggest shopping days of the year.

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Brazilian Jiu Jitsu