I think I've been hearing this for the past two years -- stagflation this year, or next year, or maybe the year after that.
Unlike defined metrics for a recession, there are no defined metrics for a stagflation. Apparently it's like pornography: economists know it when they see it.
I was curious. How far back -- in modern history -- have economists been warming about stagflation?
From The Los Angeles Times June 16, 2011, over a decade ago:
Reporting from Washington —
Higher prices seeped from the gas pump into the broader U.S. economy in May, adding new hurdles for the sluggish recovery and the government’s options for boosting it.
The combination of a stagnant economy and rising inflation led some economists to worry that the country might be headed toward a repeat of the 1970s phenomenon of stagflation, which hobbled growth for years.
Wednesday’s Labor Department report rattled financial markets already spooked by the worsening debt situation in Greece and raised the specter that the Federal Reserve might have to raise interest rates sooner than expected to blunt inflation pressures.
The report helped accelerate the recent slide in the stock markets. The Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 178.84 points, or nearly 1.5%.
Economists cautioned that inflation is volatile and could sink in coming months if gasoline prices continue their recent downward trend.
Data points, first number in bold black, Juneteenth, 2011; bold red, April 15, 2022:
- market
- Dow: 12,217; 34,415
- S&P 500: 1,366; 4,293
- NASDAQ: 2,813; 13,351
- AAPL: 19 (no typo); 165
- CVX: 105, 172
- unemployment rate: 8.5%; 3.6%
- inflation rate: 3.0%; 8.5%
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