First things first: wow, I really missed this. The other day, yesterday, actually, I wondered out loud why Jeff Bezos would spend so much money on a big budget movie. After watching the movie a second time and sleeping on it overnight, it now all makes sense.
Ukraine: when this is all said and done, there will be huge "repercussions" -- I think the one that bothers me the most, even more than energy (and there's a reason for that) is agriculture.
This might be the time for President Biden to worry more about US farmers planting more than US shale drilling more. Unfortunately, Biden will lead from behind, and we will realize this autumn that the US should have been pulling out all stops to encourage farmers to plant more. There are so many things the US government could do to encourage so much more planting of wheat, corn, soybeans. We have two months, tops, to get things going.
Link here, leading from behind:
Ukraine: it will be impossible to quantify, I suppose, to what extent Russian money flowing into US economy will impact the US surging economy, but my hunch it will not be trivial. This is just the beginning, link here:
From Zillow, parameters: only those homes selling in the $500,000 to $1 million range, 253 results. We can compare this using same parameters in one year:
Europe will have to deal with the humanitarian crisis. The moneyed and elite will find their way to England and America, probably not Germany, and probably not France. And they won't be going to Florida only. New York City will be high on their list.
Some of those oligarchs will moor their yachts next to John Kerry's in Rhode Island.
One more reason I'm not worried about stagflation. We're gonna have inflation but not 'stag.
From wiki:
In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high.
It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment. The term, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is generally attributed to Iain Macleod, a British Conservative Party politician who became Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1970.
Macleod used the word in a 1965 speech to Parliament during a period of simultaneously high inflation and unemployment in the United Kingdom.
Warning the House of Commons of the gravity of the situation, he said: "We now have the worst of both worlds—not just inflation on the one side or stagnation on the other, but both of them together. We have a sort of 'stagflation' situation. And history, in modern terms, is indeed being made."
With surging economy coming out of the Covid-19 lock downs, growth has got to slow down, but growth quarter-over-quarter coming out of a world war or a Covid-19 lock down is less important than comparing historical growth, year-over-year or "four-year periods-over-four-year periods."
According to the definition of stagflation above, Iain Macleod was concerned about three things: inflation, a slowing growth rate; and unemployment that remains steadily high. Two of those three bother me, and one much more than the other.
I don't know anything about macro-economics but I would rather track these three with regard to stagflation: inflation, labor productivity, and unemployment.
From trading economics, historical, labor productivity:
From the White House Bureau of Labor Statistics:
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The Art Page
Wow, wow, wow, just arrived. An anniversary present for my wife (wink, wink -- really for me). There's actually a "connection" (for me) between US shale and this book. LOL. More on that later. I'm getting ready to watch Carl Reiner's Fatal Instinct.
From Rizzoli.
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