One Last Check: WTI At $109 At Midnight, Eastern Time -- May 5-6, 2022

Ovintiv Reports A Monster Well -- May 5, 2022

The wells:

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38082, 3,238, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, four sections, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 236K 3/22;
  
• 36144, 80 (no typo -- typical for BR), BR, Phantom Shiop 3D MBH, Elidah, minimal production;
  
• 30818, 141, BR, Cleetwood 31-27MBH-A, Elidah, minimal production;

The BR wells are not yet interesting, with minimal production.

However, look at the Ovintiv well. The Ovintiv Rolla wells are tracked here.

• 38082, 3,238, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, four section, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 236K 3/22; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	49935	49764	23632	123371	122822	549
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	51907	52101	23775	113811	113811	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	58746	58668	27899	127661	127661	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	61042	61012	28899	119074	118877	197
BAKKEN	11-2021	8	14645	14168	4898	27237	27120	117

**********************
Halo Effect?

Any wells of interest near the Rolla well (#38082)? 

You betcha: three --

• 24452,
• 24453,
• 34454,

I'll come back to them later. I'm just too exhausted to post that data now.

CLR's SOUTH Charolais Federal Wells -- May 5, 2022

Tracked here.

Earlier today three CLR SOUTH Charolais Federal were reported as "plugged or producing":

• (#37901 - #37903, inclusive)

There are four wells on that pad, the fourth, #37904.

The wells:

• 37901, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 6-10H, Elm Tree, minimal production, 3/22;
• 37902, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 5-10H1, Elm Tree, no production data,
• 37903, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 4-10H, Elm Tree, minimal production, 3/22;
• 37904, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 3-10H2, Elm Tree, minimal production, 3/22;

Nearby is a 9-well pad where all wells are on DRL status.  

To the west, the nearest well that is producing:

• 37044, drl, CLR, Charolais South Federal 2-10HSL, Elm Tree, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 202K 3/22; full production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2022	20	26327	26208	31935	45172	27091	16927
BAKKEN	2-2022	7	120	242	103	111	60	48
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	30087	29994	9121	45619	44861	385
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	35319	35173	10695	49923	44853	4665
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	31694	31755	10393	46410	41581	4437
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	25014	25057	8130	37297	36182	710
BAKKEN	9-2021	29	20896	20876	6823	31064	26226	4476
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	25534	25503	8815	38855	32548	5903
BAKKEN	7-2021	6	6950	6683	2285	8724	7334	1390
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	5	526	526	689	882	0	882

The graphics:

Saudi Quota, Historical Saudi Production -- May 5, 2022

Three data points:

• New OPEC+ Saudi quota: nearly 10.7 million bopd production. 
• Historical Saudi production here.
• Reminder: we're coming into spring / summer when Saudi's domestic needs for crude oil increase significantly.

*******************************
All Signs Point To An Oil Super-Cycle

Oil tonight:

• Brent: $111.40; up about half-a-percent.
• WTI: $108.70; up 0.4% and lots of room to run, although I still maintain $5-gasoline is not good for the US.
  

Link here to Tsvetana Paraskova.

The $64,000 Question: Will Tesla Replicate This? May 5, 2022

There's a huge difference between Tesla and shale. Actually many "huge" differences.

Link here.

Update On Sempra Activity in Mexico -- May 5, 2022

I'm blown away by all the natural gas, all the LNG stories, right now. 

There's probably a handful of non-Bakken energy companies I really enjoy following. It's a long, long story. Earlier today, I posted a short note on that company, Sempra. 

A reader happened to catch that and sent me this note:

With all the news flying about, it can be daunting to try and keep track.

Just to be clear, the proposed LNG plant that you referred to today - Vista Pacifico at Topolobampo -  is their second project. The Energia Costa Azul is under construction and should be online in about 24 months. 

There is a third Mexican west coast project at Puerto Libertad that should receive FID shortly.

All the gas will be US sourced, mainly Permian and possibly Piceance.

The distance from West Texas to these plants is about the same as to the Gulf coast and pipes, storage and berths are already in place as they were originally designed to be import terminals.

A little sleuthing led me to this, from naturalgasintel.com, published just one month ago, April 4, 2022. Archived.

Two liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects planned for Mexico’s Pacific Coast have reached significant milestones in recent days.

The projects comprise Sempra Infrastructure’s Vista Pacífico LNG terminal planned for Topolobampo, Sinaloa, and Mexico Pacific Ltd.’s (MPL) liquefaction project envisioned for Puerto Libertad, Sonora.

Sempra Infrastructure and TotalEnergies SE are expanding their “strategic alliance” in North American energy with two agreements, one involving LNG exports and the other for offshore wind.

In the memoranda of understanding (MOU) announced Thursday, the San Diego-based unit of Sempra and the French major TotalEnergies outlined partnerships that intertwine their interests in gas exports and renewables in Mexico and California.

In one MOU, TotalEnergies is considering contracting about one-third of the capacity from a proposed LNG site in Mexico. Vista Pacífico LNG would be sited near Sempra’s refined products terminal in Topolobampo, Sinaloa. If the project is sanctioned, TotalEnergies could obtain around 1.3 million metric tons/year (mmty) of the terminal’s planned 4 mmty capacity. The energy major could also take a minority equity stake in the project, as it has with other projects.

The map:

There Is Hope For Humanity -- May 5, 2022

Sent to me by a reader. It's such a great memo I'm going to re-print it as I received it from the reader:

Meta To Hire Fewer People Than Expected, And Blames Apple 

BY Benzinga — 3:50 PM ET 05/05/2022

Meta Platforms Inc. -- the metaverse company previously known as Facebook Inc. -- recently lost daily users for the first time in its 18-year history.

Now the company is rethinking its expansion plans and partly blaming it on Apple Inc.'s new pro-privacy policies.

What Happened: Meta internal memos meant for employees were reported by Business Insider on Thursday and show that the firm is enforcing a hiring freeze and reducing hiring targets.

The company said it is reprioritizing in a move that will impact "almost every team across the company."

The decision follows the company reporting "slower revenue growth than anticipated," partly "due to a number of factors including the loss of signal from iOS changes," according to Meta chief financial officer David Vehner.

He also wrote that the company is in the process of "incorporating AI into our ads system to overcome signal loss from iOS changes."

Privacy And Tech: The report follows Apple enacting the App Tracking Transparency Framework in 2020, which allows iOS device users to choose whether they wish to be tracked or not across apps and websites owned by other companies.

Meta starkly opposed giving mobile users the opportunity to choose whether they should be tracked, by negating to apps the access to the Identifier for Advertisers -- making it harder to target personalized ads to that user.

When Apple first rolled out the feature, Meta acquired a full-page ad in The New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post arguing the change is bad for small businesses and that it limits "how personalized ads can be used does impact larger companies like us."

Meta also wrote that Apple will "limit businesses' ability to run personalized ads and reach their customers effectively."

The report follows Apple leaving the State Privacy and Security Coalition (SPSC) back in early April, accusing the group of lobbying for weak privacy laws that benefit the industry instead of the users. SPSC members include AT&T NYSE:T, Meta Platforms Inc. NASDAQ:FB Google owner Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:GOOGL and other major players in the technology and media industries -- which means that Apple is now clearly at odds with those.

The Apple tracking vs Metaverse frustration story is at least a year old. I was aware it was hurting Meta's bottom line.

I don't know if Apple was the first or how it all played out, but I do know that on any Apply product I'm on, when I go to a site that has the technology to track me, a dialogue box pops us and asks whether I want that site to track me. Out of habit I generally check "no" -- some exceptions -- but in the big scheme of things I really don't care one way or the other. 

But I certainly get a kick out of the Apple - Meta story. Pretty funny. 

************************************
The Recipe Page

Steak.

Oven.

Cast iron skillet. One of my favorite kitchen gadgets.

At this link be sure to read the social comments; lots of ideas. My favorite: 

Rub it with brown sugar, paprika, salt and pepper, sear for 2 minutes each side, then throw in 1/4 cup whisky, turn down to simmer and let it get up to 125 internal.

CLR 1Q22 Presentation -- May 5, 2022

Link here. Archived.

Sempra Update -- May 5, 2022

US LNG export terminals are tracked here.

Sempra Energy: expects FID on new Cameron LNG train in 2023. Link here. 

Sempra Energy earnings call transcript.

Lots of Sempra Energy news in 1Q22 earnings report:

Sempra Energy said Thursday -- May 5, 2022, that the venture that owns the Cameron liquefied natural gas plant in Louisiana remains on track to make a final investment decision in 2023 to build a new liquefaction train at the plant, Reuters reports.

Sempra said in its Q1 earnings report that Cameron LNG plans to complete development work on the fourth liquefaction train in the summer 2023, with the company "in a position to make a final investment decision thereafter."

Separately, Sempra said its infrastructure unit entered into a non-binding agreement with TotalEnergies  for Sempra's Vista Pacífico LNG project under development in Mexico.

TotalEnergies  would contract for roughly one-third of the long-term export production, and it would participate as a minority equity investor in the project.

Sempra also said it expects to close the sale of a 10% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners to a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority for $1.79B in cash during Q2; upon closing, Sempra will own a 70% controlling interest in Sempra Infrastructure.

More here. 

Slawson With Three New Permits; CLR Has Completed Three Charolais South Federal Wells -- Huge Day For EOG -- May 5, 2022

Permian gas: linked/posted earlier this morning. I have to go back and archive the entire article. It's that important. This link:

"Analysts": on twitter and oilprice I have a couple of favorite folks to follow. If they post something, it's important. 

A lot like my brother: he did not say much; he was very, very quiet but when he spoke, it was important. So, over at oilprice, Charles Kennedy. On twitter, it's RAWenergy@WAR527. The latter seldom re-posts an RBN Energy link so seeing this tells me how big a story this is. Archived.

Perfect storm:

• EOG in the Permian
• the Permian: a "gassier" play than the Bakken
• Putin's War: LNG becomes an even bigger story
• war: less than three months old
• sanctions yet to make huge impact
• Germany building new import terminals; floating, modular terminals will be in place by end of year, maybe before winter
• EOG: huge 1Q22 -- compare $$$ to one year ago
• everything suggests this is just the first inning of nine-inning game that might go into overtime
• if one can't connect the dots here --- EOG -- KMI Permian Highway / KMI Gulf Coast Express -- Putin's War ... the more one sees, the more excited one gets -- but that special dividend of $1.80 on top of its regular quarterly dividend of 75 cents -- 
• over at themes - 2022 -- LNG, export terminals.
  

Natural gas:

Link here.

This could go a long way explaining how/why EOG could declare a special dividend of $1.80 on top of a regular quarterly dividend of 75 cents.

Checking the prices:

• WTI: $108.50.
• natural gas: $8.834

Is anyone paying attention? Diversification is over-rated.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$108.50	5/5/2022	05/05/2021	05/05/2020	05/05/2019	05/05/2018
Active Rigs	39	17	25	64	62

Three new oil and gas permits, #38930 - 3893s, inclusive:

• Operator: Slawson
• Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Slawson has permits for three Lunker Federal wells in NWNW 33-152-91; 
• to be sited 250 FNL and between 1150 FWL and 1300 FWL
  

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38082, 3,238, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, four section, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 236K 3/22;
  
• 36144, 80 (no typo -- typical for BR), BR, Phantom Shiop 3D MBH, Elidah, minimal production;
  
• 30818, 141, BR, Cleetwood 31-27MBH-A, Elidah, minimal production;
  

Also, three CLR wells plugged or producing:

• three Charolais South Federal wells (#37901 - #37903, inclusive)

NOG And EOG Report Earnings -- EOG Declares Special Dividend Of $1.80 / Share -- May 5, 2022

Updates

May 6, 2022: the EOG dividend.

Original Post

NOG: record first quarter 2022 results; updates guidance.

EOG: first quarter results; adds quantitative guidance to cash return; declares a $1.80 / share special dividend. The special dividend is on top of the regular dividend of 75 cents. 

One random observation:

• EOG has 585 million shares outstanding
• 585 million x $2.55 = $1,500 million or $1.5 billion dollars in dividends in one quarter
• $10 million tops to drill and complete a well
• $1,500 million / $10 million = 150 wells
• again, one quarter -- dividends that could cover 150 new wells.
  

Note: I often make simple arithmetic mistakes. Feel free to fact-check those calculations.

This tells me that EOG is satisfied with their drilling program and see no need to change their strategic plan. It also suggests they don't see a significant drop in oil prices or oil demand.

Now, making this a bit more interesting, let's continue a bit of idle rambling. EOG is as much "gas" as it is "oil." In fact, it's now focusing on a play (the Permian) that is much "gassier" than the Bakken. 

So, note this, and after reading the headline, check out the link and see the social media replies. 

Link here.

This could go a long way explaining how/why EOG could declare a special dividend of $1.80 on top of a regular quarterly dividend of 75 cents.

Checking the prices:

• WTI: $108.50.
• natural gas: $8.834

Things Must Look Fairly Dire If The Biden Administration Already Seems Panicked To Begin Refilling The SPR -- May 5, 2022

The energy transition is dead. Tracked here. 

• ESG is dead, too. Tracked here.

Link here. 

Among the energy stories today, the most interesting is this one, the headline: the Biden administration is announcing plans to buy back 60 million bbls of oil to star the "long" process of "building back" the SPR.

Let's find the story.

Reuters has the story. 

The United States will take bids this fall to buy back 60 million barrels of crude oil for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the first step in replenishing the stockpile after a record-sized release this spring, the Department of Energy said.

The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden had announced on March 31, 2022, a release of a record 180 million barrels from the stockpile to help tame runaway energy prices, soaring since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [A time line folks might want to fact check.]

"As we are thoughtful and methodical in the decision to drawdown from our emergency reserve, we must be similarly strategic in replenishing the supply so that it stands ready to deliver on its mission to provide relief when needed most," said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm in a press release detailing the plan.

The call for bids on the initial 60 million barrels "will take place in the fall of 2022 to secure delivery in future years when prices are anticipated to be significantly lower than they are today," according to the press release.

Charles Kennedy also has the story.

Okay. So, what do we have?

An announcement that around the time of the mid-terms (2022), the US government will call for bids to start the process of "building back" the strategic reserve, with the first "delivery to be made in future years."

So many story lines. Let's begin.

We start with politics. Everything in Washington (DC) is politics so one has to look at this story not through oil-stained spectacles, but through Biden's political lenses. 

Biden's approval ratings are so low, everything he does it measured against how "it will play to the base."

Again, the language being used today is "buying oil" -- not swapping oil. Buying oil from Big Oil is probably the last thing the Biden administration wanted to propose.

So, how does this happen? What's going on?

Decisions like this come after a 50-minute PowerPoint briefing that has been vetted for the past six months.  The full PowerPoint briefing was 104 slides, including a title slide, and a "thanks to the following" slide.

President Biden's staff was shown all 104 slides but the president, in ten minutes was shown a Reader's Digest version of eight slides. 

The last two slides:

The bottom line: energy transition is dead.

If energy transition was going as well as everyone says it is going, there would be no need to re-fill the SPR beyond the swaps to replace the oil released this summer (2022).

But there is no way of sugar coating this for his base. His base will go nuts: buying yet more oil for the SPR! This is incredible. First, an admission that the "energy transition" is not only not going well, but it may be dead and if we don't get back to drilling and producing more oil, "we" (the United States) could be in great difficulty.

There's only a few takeaways.

First, "energy transition," that euphemism for "renewable energy," is dead. If not dead, it's going to take a lot longer than anyone thought.

The tipping point was Warren Buffett at his annual meeting less than a week ago: in one quarter Buffett bought so much CVX stock that an shares in an oil company became one of his top four equity positions. 

Warren Buffett's comment that energy transition will take much longer than anticipated was an understatement.

Prior to that was Peter Zeihan clearly stating that "energy transition" is dead. 

From my perspective this is quite incredible, for the Biden administration to talk about the need for buying more oil to begin the long process of refilling the SPR. This also tells me that the Biden administration agrees that we are not talking just a few more years of reliance on oil, but decades.

Energy transition was supposed to be accomplished by 2025 or 2030. But gonna happen. 

Like everything else in the news cycle, this story will be forgotten by most folks by this weekend but it certainly helps explain why Warren Buffet bought so much CVX in 1Q22 and then early this week revealed that he bought another five million shares of OXY. 

Now, for the snarky, political remarks. It is amazing how this administration consistently and continuously keeps making really, really bad decisions when it comes to energy.

By the way, where is all this new oil to "begin re-filling" the SPR supposed to come from? Federal land? Off-shore?

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Meeting Expectations -- May 5, 2022

Link here.

"NOPEC" -- NoGo -- LOL -- May 5, 2022

Yesterday I posted this:

Perfect storm:

• energy transition is dead ("everybody" now realizes that)
  
• Putin's War: a lot of Russian oil is taken off the market 
• we have an administration in Washington (DC) that doesn't understand what's going on and will (purposely or inadvertently) do everything to kill the US oil industry
• this administration in place for three more years; three more years to exacerbate situation 
• windfall profits tax will exacerbate price of gasoline at the pump;
• US E&P under-capitalization (multiple reasons)
• financial institutions coordinated moving investments to non-fossil fuel companies
• capital being moved from fossil fuel to renewable energy, tech, healthcare
• fossil fuel out of favor with managed funds 

Earlier this morning, I provided another example of "we have an administration in Washington (DC) that doesn't understand what's going on." The example earlier this morning: the US now looking to buy back 60 million bbls of oil. See this link.

Now, we have another example of "we have an administration in Washington (DC) that doesn't understand what's going on." The new example: US Senate committee will likely move "NOPEC" bill out of committee. LOL. One really thinks this will incentivize Prince Muhammad Bin Salem to produce more oil to export to the US? LOL. "NOPEC?" Another bullish development. 

The Good, Bad, And The Ugly -- May 5, 2022

Yesterday I posted:

Perfect storm:

• energy transition is dead ("everybody" now realizes that)
  
• Putin's War: a lot of Russian oil is taken off the market 
• we have an administration in Washington (DC) that doesn't understand what's going on and will (purposely or inadvertently) do everything to kill the US oil industry
• this administration in place for three more years; three more years to exacerbate situation 
• windfall profits tax will exacerbate price of gasoline at the pump;
• US E&P under-capitalization (multiple reasons)
• financial institutions coordinated moving investments to non-fossil fuel companies
• capital being moved from fossil fuel to renewable energy, tech, healthcare
• fossil fuel out of favor with managed funds

Now, this, early today, link here:

Also, link here with Ronald McDonald:

Wow, let me repeat: we have an administration in Washington (DC) that doesn't understand what's going on and will (purposely or inadvertently) do everything to kill the US oil industry.

The key phrase today is obviously: we have an administration in Washington (DC) that doesn't understand what's going on.

They announced an SPR release when price was "relatively" low, and now announce they want to buy back what they released at a higher price. 

I would assume the only place the federal government can "store" newly bought oil is in the SPR.

To flip-flop so soon speaks volumes. 

The "good" ("best') interpretation: the administration knows oil is going higher and they want to buy back before it gets higher (the federal government is not into "trading" oil for profit, so this argument makes little sense).

The "bad" ("another") interpretation: the administration now knows that algorithms take into account declining inventories, and the price of oil will increase, all things being equal, if the computers / robots see declining inventories. Robots don't care about politics or what feels good. 

The "ugly" ("scariest) interpretation: the administration is looking at demand projections for the US driving season which begins in .... drum roll ... 26 days, and, looking at yesterday's EIA "gasoline demand" chart realize "we" are going to be really, really short of crude oil this summer. 

Gasoline demand was up and the API forecast a huge draw on oil and refined products and yet refiners were only operating at 88% of their operable capacity as they switch from winter to summer and to the new E15 waivers. Imagine what happens to commercial inventories of crude oil when refiners get back to their more normal 92% operating capacity and shale operators hold the line, not increasing production -- some because they have made that decision for financial and strategic reasons; others because they simply can't get the workers needed to complete drilled wells. 

*************************************
The Book Page

Two "entries" today.

"Don't fear a red planet: the story of the world's only native comic shop." The Nation.

On June 4, 2017, nearly 200 people descended on a quiet block in Albuquerque, N.M. 

While the Jir Project, a band from Cochiti Pueblo, played in the shade, visitors from across the state poured into Red Planet Books and Comics, which claims to be the only Native comic book store in the world. 

Outside, artists exhibited their work and signed books, and inside, comic fans browsed the graphic novels, children’s books, and nonfiction works—mostly by Indigenous creators. The store’s founder, Lee Francis IV, a member of the Laguna Pueblo, hadn’t expected such a turnout and said that he sold nearly all the books shop had. The warm, festival-like atmosphere and scores of fans had welcomed the bookstore to the community.

Since that day in 2017, Red Planet has sold graphic novels, comics, games, toys, and collectibles to “Indigenerds” in New Mexico. Situated a block south of Route 66, Red Planet’s mission is clear from its exterior. A mural designed to look like a comic book cover engulfs the shop’s facade: One side lists a price of “505 cents,” a reference to the city’s area code, and the other “Vol. 1680,” the year of the Pueblo Revolt. Red Planet’s mission to celebrate Native creators is even clearer on the inside: Illustrations of Star Wars and Marvel characters hang alongside paintings of Sitting Bull and Interior Secretary Deb Haaland; Dungeons & Dragons sets sit near Cards For Decolonization; and copies of classic comics like March and Persepolis are shelved alongside Native-authored books like Code Talkers and If I Go Missing.

As it approaches its fifth anniversary this June, Red Planet has grown into something more: a space for artists, writers, and fans to imagine Indigenous futures beyond the Southwest and the traditional comic book format.

The second entry: "How Texas was born of revolution and settler-colonialism." 

Spain’s North American colonial empire was in its death throes when the Cherokees crossed the Red River in 1819. For almost a decade, Mexico had been wracked by a bloody war for independence that was now grinding toward a conclusion. Home to no more than three thousand Hispanos, Texas had never occupied a significant place in Spain’s imperial project. Nonetheless, it was not spared the wrenching upheaval of revolution, and in recent years the area had devolved into virtual anarchy.

So feeble was Spain’s hold over the northern frontier that Texas had begun to attract the attention of American adventurers, who launched a number of filibustering expeditions into the province. At first, such enterprises were undertaken in cooperation with Mexican revolutionists. But as the War of Independence dragged on, American soldiers of fortune began to pursue an agenda all their own, with the goal of establishing an independent Texas that could one day be annexed by the United States.

Despite the political chaos, Texas remained, for all intents and purposes, a Native American world, inhabited by a constellation of peoples as culturally distinct as the region was vast. Bowls’s Cherokees were not the first refugee Indians from the United States to find a home in East Texas. For several years, this remote corner of New Spain had become a destination of choice for Native Americans displaced by white encroachment.

A few Western Cherokees received permission from Spanish officials to reside in East Texas as early as 1807. About the same time, small groups of Alabama, Coushatta, and Biloxi Indians from the Lower South crossed the Sabine River into Texas, to settle in the bayou country between the Trinity and Neches rivers. Still others, the Shawnees, Delawares, and Kickapoos, Algonquin-speaking peoples from the Ohio River Valley, drifted into East Texas after Tecumseh’s efforts to establish a pan-Indian alliance ended in failure during the War of 1812.

Indian tribes / nations / peoples mentioned in the article:

• Western Cherokees, 1807
• Alabama, Coushatta, and Biloxi -- from the Lower South crossed the Sabine River into Texas, to settle the bayou country between the Trinity and Neches rivers
• Shawnees, Delawares, and Kickapoos, Algonquin-speaking peoples from the Ohio River Valley drifted into East Texas after Tecumseh's efforts to establish a pan-Indian alliance ended in failure during the War of 1812
• already living in East Texas when the above started arriving: the Native peoples already living there:
• a flourishing confederacy that extended into northern Louisiana and Arkansas; known collectively as Caddos, the woodland tribes that had been decimated by European diseases (think smallpox); one or two thousand still remained, living in small villages between the Sabine and Trinity rivers
• seminomadic Wichitas, driven off the Low Plains by the Osage several decades earlier, occupied the prairies of northeast Texas, while some drifted farther south, into the central part of the province, establishing fortified towns along the Brazos and Navasota rivers
• nomadic triibes, the Comanches and Apaches, vied for control of buffalo grazing lands, having displaced Tonkawa bands that now roamed the post oak savannahs closer to the coast
• along the Gulf Coast, several hundred Kranakawas fished and hunged in area bays and waterways, rarely venturing more than afew miles infland
• Bowls's Cherokees: crossed the Red River, made their way south, to the headwaters of the Trinity near present-day Dallas
• there they clashed wiith the Taovaya Wichitas, heavily timbered bosd'arc tree, essential for making bows
• the Cherokees followed well-worn Caddo trails into the forests of East Texas. An immense wedge of timberland comprising roughly one-third of the province, the area was part of a great pine belt that spanned much of the American South, a humid region of slow-moving rivers, languid creeks, and stagnant bayous. Its gently undulating landscape flattened out as it stretched southward, the pine barrens giving way to the wetlands of the Gulf Coast. The Cherokees settled between the Neches and Angelina rivers, about a day’s ride north of the small Spanish town of Nacogdoches. The Caddo Indians resented the newcomers, but unlike the Osage and Wichitas lacked the numbers to expel them.

WTI Moves Higher -- May 5, 2022

Updates

Later, 8:33 a.m. CT: yup, there it is. WTI up 2.485; up $2.67; trading at $110.50.

Original Post

Breaking headline: OPEC+ agrees to boost production by 432,000 bpd in June.

• of course, that will take Herculean efforts in Mideast to make up for loss of Russian production:
• oil prices after that announcement? Another surge:
• Brent: up 1.74%; up $1.93; trading at $112.10
• WTI: up 1.485; up $1.60; trending toward $110
• US SPR release: incredibly good timing; was desperately needed; kept WTI from surging to $120 ... or worse

OPEC+ agrees to boost production by 432,000 bpd in June.

• OPEC+: a quota of 42.558 million bpd for June
• Saudi Arabia: 10.663 million bpd
• Russia: 10.663 million bopd (no typo -- both Russia and Saudi have same quota)

Pre-market trading:

• CVX: up 0.51%; up 86 cents; trading at $168.45
• COP: up 1.62%; up $1.68; trading at $103.86 -- earnings released earlier today; beat.
• DVN: up 1.48%; up $1.00; trading at $68.74
• CLR: down 0.6%; down 36 cents; trading at $60.00
  

Others:

• SRE: unchange; trading at $164.51; earnings released earlier today; beat. A $124-stock
• ENB: up 0.46%; up 21 cents; trading at $45.19;
• EPD: down 0.37%; down 10 cents; trading at $26.97;
• KMI: up 0.41%; up 8 cents; trading at $19.36;
• OKE: up 0.43%; up 29 cents; trading at $67.64;

One Will Either Get The Vacccine, Or Covid, Or Both -- But Very Few Will Actually Escape One Or The Other -- Swedish Experience -- May 5, 2022

Most western countries are still recording new cases of Covid-19.

Sweden has gone either two or three consecutive days reporting no new cases.

Swedish experience:

228 "countries" are tracked. 

Some selected statistics.

Tests / 1 million population:

1. Denmark: 21.8 million / 1 million population
6. Spain: 10.1 million / 1 million population
12. UK: 7.6 million / 1 million population
22. Israel: 4.4 million
32. Italy: 3.6
38. USA: 3.0
57. Norway: 2.0
58. Finland: 1.9
64. Sweden: 1.8
72. Canada: 1.6
73. Germany: 1.5

Sort of supports the adage, if you don't test for it, it doesn't exist.

Deaths / 1 million population:

1. Peru: 6,296 / one million
18. USA: 3,059
31. UK: 2,561
57. Sweden: 1,834
90. Denmark: 1,067
WORLD: 804
111. Finland: 747
125. Norway: 547

Sort of supports the adage, everyone will either get the vaccine, the disease, or both.

Early on:

• Norway: strict
• Sweden: lenient
• 547/ 1834 = per capita, Norway had 30% of Covid-19-related deaths compared to Sweden.

Sort of supports the adage, once a meme is established, it never dies. Sort of like Covid sub-types. 

Studies, articles:

JAMDA, June 10, 2021:

Conclusions and Implications: In Swedish LTCFs, COVID-19 was associated with a large excess in mortality after controlling for an extensive number of risk factors. 

Beyond older age and male sex, several prevalent clinical risk factors independently contributed to higher mortality. These findings suggest that reducing transmission of COVID-19 in LTCFs will likely prevent a considerable number of deaths.

BMJ, December 22, 2021. The British Medical Journal is perhaps the most respected international medical journal, vying the London Lancet and the Boston NEJM for that distinction.

“Swedish statistics do not differ from other European countries,” Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist who has been the face of Sweden’s infamous pandemic strategy, tells The BMJ. 

“After two years of pandemic Sweden does not stand out. We are not the best, but we are definitely not the worst.”

In contrast to the stricter, often lockdown focused, approaches of many European countries—including its neighbours in Scandinavia—Sweden’s strategy has relied on individuals taking responsibility under non-binding recommendations.1 In the first six months of the pandemic, the government enacted extensive work from home measures for those that could, as well as remote learning for over 16s.

The public acquiesced and there was little debate about the stance, bar a group of 22 scientists who were outspoken about the high number of coronavirus deaths among the elderly, which was significantly higher than that of its Nordic neighbours—131 per million people compared with 55 per million in Denmark and 14 per million in Finland, which all adopted lockdowns.

Tegnell was among those insistent that the lockdowns imposed by other countries were excessive. 

Compared with other major European countries the number of overall cases and deaths in Sweden was low—just under 93 000 cases and 6000 deaths by 1 October 2020 compared with over 118 000 cases and 10 000 deaths in Belgium, which has a similar overall population size, or the 606 000 cases and 32 000 deaths seen in France and other larger countries, according to Our World in Data.

But by winter 2020 a second wave with the new alpha variant brought a spike in cases. 

In the six months between October 2020 and March 2021, the country saw 657 309 positive cases and 12 826 deaths.

The government’s measures were sharply criticised in an 800-page report (the second of this sort) published in October 2021 by the Swedish Corona Commission — the government commissioned inquiry into the pandemic response—which it noted were both late and insufficient, and called preparedness “non-existing.”

This was followed in November 2021 by a report from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, proposing the establishment of an independent expert unit for future pandemics, stating that authorities were “inadequately prepared” in terms of knowledge as well as equipment such as face masks, and that high mortality during the first two waves of the pandemic was because of “mild and tardy” measures to prevent the initial spread of infection.

Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf labelled Sweden’s handling of the pandemic a “failure” in his end of 2020 TV speech. Then prime minister Stefan Lofven agreed. 

“The fact that so many have died can’t be considered as anything other than a failure,” he said.

Anders Vahlne, a professor of virology at the Karolinska Institute and one of the scientists critical of the Swedish response, told The BMJ that it was shameful that the whole pandemic had been in the hands of a few civil servants who acted and reacted slowly, lacking flexibility and still not clearly acknowledging that the virus was airborne.

A year on, as the country faces up to a second winter of the pandemic and both delta and omicron variant threats, experts The BMJ spoke to are clear: Sweden’s situation remains precarious.

See graphic below correlating The BMJ article with subsequent experience. 

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List; COP, SRE Beat -- May 5, 2022

The Swedish Covid meme: a reader sent me an update regarding Sweden's experience with Covid. Memo to self: need to provide update. Let's call it fact-checking. Later.  

COP beats: link here.

SRE: huge beat. 

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$108.10	5/5/2022	05/05/2021	05/05/2020	05/05/2019	05/05/2018
Active Rigs	39	17	25	64	62

Thursday, May 5, 2022: 17 for the month, 82 for the quarter, 242 for one year

• 38242, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 15-97-18-19-12H, Siverston, no production data,
  
• 37845, conf, Hess, EN-Zunich-156-94-3328H-8, Manitou, nice well, first production, 11/22; t--; cum 125K 3/22;
  
• 34234, conf, Oasis, Borden Federal 5300 34-36 8B, Willow Creek, nice well, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 160K 3/22;
  
• 30259, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LEE-154-94-0705H-1, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  

RBN Energy: an update on the race to add Permian gas pipeline capacity. Archived.

The first Saturday in May is only a couple of days away, so brush off your seersucker jacket or find that Kentucky Derby hat, as it’s the only time of year most Americans watch an actual horse race. That’s kind of how it goes with the Permian natural gas market as well, with only intermittent interest from general gas market participants, usually when there’s a pipeline capacity issue leading to a noticeable impact on prices. Now is one of those times. Permian gas production is racing higher and the pipelines to get gas to market are quickly getting jammed up. Daily prices in the Permian are trading about 10% lower than those in Louisiana and the forward basis markets suggest they will deteriorate further in the months ahead. Naturally, midstream companies are quickly trotting out new pipeline projects, but sorting out the contenders is much like picking the winner on Saturday. You need data and at least a little luck, and we’re here to help out with the former. In today’s RBN blog, we lay out what we know and how we view the Permian gas pipeline derby.