Locator: 46444MUSIC.
First female drummer listed --
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Two New Permits, One Permit Renewed, Eight DUCs Reported As Completed — January 2, 2024
Locator: 46443B.
WTI: $70.38. Big drop from the overnight high. Apparently the consensus is that the US Navy will take control of the sea lanes. Again.
Active rigs: 34.
Two new permits, #40417 - #40418, inclusive:
- Operator: Oasis
- Field: Indian Hiss (McKenzie County)
- Comments:
- Oasis has permits for two Fossum wells, SWSE 35-153-101;
- to be sited 335 FSL with one well 2237 FEL and the other well 2171 FEL.
One permit renewed:
- BR, an Ole permit, Haystack Butte, McKenzie County.
Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 36745, 356, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26EXH, Heart Butte, see maps below;
- 36746, 543, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26F, Heart Butte, see maps below;
- 39100, 4,901, MRO, Dennis USA 44-5H, Lost Bridge,
- 39101, 3,790, MRO, Velma USA 44-5TFH, Lost Bridge,
- 39216, 314, SOGC, Grasslands Federal 14-15-4H,
- 39217, 420, SOGC, Grasslands Federal 14-15-5H,
- 39412, 2,935, MRO, Huseby 21-17H, Killdeer, see maps below;
- 39828, 2,043, MRO, Leona 21-17H, Killeer, see maps below;
For the MRO wells in Killdeer oil field, there are many wells of interest, which I will get to later, if the spirit moves me. For now, the maps:
For the XTO wells in Heart Butte (FBIR), the maps:
The Bakken never ceases to amaze me. The well:
- 39100, 4,901, MRO, Dennis USA 44-5H, Lost Bridge, drilled 8/23; cum 164K 11/23;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 19536 | 19533 | 13088 | 50863 | 50615 | 66 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 28 | 23419 | 23451 | 18128 | 41201 | 40950 | 81 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2023 | 30 | 46191 | 46423 | 29404 | 65518 | 64553 | 765 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2023 | 28 | 75181 | 74740 | 65433 | 101103 | 99522 | 1315 |
The maps of the MRO wells in Lost Bridge noted above:
EVs -- Sales -- Rivian And Tesla -- January 2, 2024
Locator: 46442EVS.
Breaking news: Harvard president resigns. About time. My hunch, one very powerful individual, thinking long term, weighed in. Note that "the governing board still 'stood by her.'"
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Now Back To Autos
Autos:
Rivian:
Tesla: link here. Hits his 2023 target. Pretty amazing.
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More
From the CNBC link:
Shares of Rivian Automotive declined by almost 10% during early trading Tuesday after the company reported increased vehicle production during the fourth quarter but fewer deliveries than the previous period.
The company said it delivered 13,972 vehicles from October through December, down 10.2% from the third quarter of 2023 but in line with Wall Street’s expectations. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected Rivian to deliver about 14,000 vehicles during the quarter.
Rivian produced 17,541 EVs during the fourth quarter, an increase over the 16,304 it produced during the third quarter.
It produced 57,232 vehicles for the full year, all at its factory in Normal, Illinois. That topped the company’s full-year 2023 production guidance of 54,000 vehicles.
Rivian will announce its fourth-quarter earnings result after markets close on Feb. 21.
Rivian’s results come on the same day U.S. EV leader Tesla easily topped Wall Street’s expectations for fourth-quarter deliveries.
From the CNBC link:
Tesla just published its fourth-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report for 2023.
Here are the key numbers:
- Total deliveries Q4 2023: 484,507
- Total production Q4 2023: 494,989
- Total annual deliveries 2023: 1,808,581
- Total annual production 2023: 1,845,985
In 2022, the Elon Musk-led automaker reported annual deliveries of 1.31 million and production of 1.37 million electric vehicles. The new numbers represent delivery growth of 38% year over year and production growth of 35% year over year. In 2022, the company reported 40% growth year over year in deliveries from 2021.
In its last earnings call in October 2023, Tesla execs offered guidance that the company would notch at least 1.8 million deliveries for the full year, a number they had revised down from a 2 million goal earlier.
Analysts had expected Tesla to report deliveries of 477,000 for the year-ending quarter, according to a consensus of estimates compiled by StreetAccount as of Dec. 28. Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales reported by Tesla but are not precisely defined in the company’s shareholder communications.
During a third-quarter earnings call in October, Tesla CEO Musk said the company’s Model Y entry-level SUV was likely to “be the bestselling car on Earth, but not just in revenue, but in unit volume,” for the year. Tesla does not break out delivery and production numbers by individual model but reported combined numbers of:
Tesla produced 476,777 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during the quarter and reported 461,538 deliveries for these models. It didn’t break down Model S or X production or delivery numbers, instead batching them into “Other Models.” It produced 18,212 other models and delivered 22,969 during the quarter.
RBN Energy Top Ten Prognostications For 2024 -- See #9 -- January 2, 2024
Locator: 46441B.
WTI: $71.07. Looks like the US Navy is going to control the Red Sea, take it back from the Houthis / Iranians; and, Israel presses on in Gaza without risking Mideast war expansion.
Tuesday, January 2, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year.
None.
Monday, January 1, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year.
39960, conf, Blue Flint Sequester, Mag 2,
39232, conf, Grayson Mill, Reidle 6-3F 4H,
Sunday, December 31, 2023: 45 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 764 for the year.
None.
Saturday, December 30, 2023: 45 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 764 for the year.
39289, conf, Hess, GO-Tong Trust A-LWW-157-96-2032H-1,
RBN Energy: top ten RBN Energy prognostications for 2024 -- year of the dragon -- breathing fire?
Think energy markets are getting back to normal? After all, prices have been relatively stable, production is growing at a healthy rate, and infrastructure bottlenecks are front and center again. Just like the good ol’ days, right? Absolutely not. It’s a whole new energy world out there, with unexpected twists and turns around every corner — everything from regional hostilities, renewables subsidies, disruptions at shipping pinch points, pipeline capacity shortfalls and all sorts of other quirky variables. There’s just no way to predict what is going to happen next, right? Nah. All we need to do is stick our collective RBN necks out one more time, peer into our crystal ball, and see what 2024 has in store for us.
We’ve been in this prognostications business for 12 years now, and it’s not getting any easier. But even with the unpredictability that’s now an expected feature of energy markets, we have maintained our long-standing tradition of not only predicting what will happen in the year ahead, but also looking back to see how we did with our predictions for the previous year. Yes, we check our work! We generally did OK last year, and you can judge for yourself in our 2023 Prognostications scorecard that was posted yesterday.
2024 — Year of the Dragon
Way back in 2013, when we first delved into the mysterious art of energy market prognostication, we needed all the help we could get. So we sought guidance from the Chinese zodiac, which turned out to be a highly valued means of assessing the future. For example, 2015 was the Year of the Goat — oil was definitely the goat that year after the Shale Era’s initial oil price crash. And 2018 was the Year of the Dog, prompting us to wonder, “Who let the dogs out?” Greed seemed palpable in 2019’s Year of the Pig. And naturally, 2020 was the Year of the Rat, 2021 the Year of the Ox, 2022 the Year of the Tiger, and 2023 the Year of the Rabbit — with those wascally wabbits being zany, tricksome, even a bit emotionally unstable. That sure sounds familiar.
What does 2024 have in store for us? It’s the Year of the Dragon. The zodiac tells us the Dragon will bring boundless energy and inspiration for a positively changing world in 2024. Or ... the Dragon will roast us all with its fiery breath. Our crystal ball tells us we’ll see the Dragon’s positive side, with market conditions getting better. But there are a lot of risk factors out there. In today’s Prognostications, we’ll delve into some of the most important and interesting developments that we see ahead in 2024.
10. LPG is headed into uncharted territory, with maxed-out export capacity and soaring production.
9. Bakken producers will test NGL and natural gas takeaway capacity limits.
8. The years of natural gas storage wandering in the economic wilderness are over.
7. Canada needs more U.S. Gulf Coast natural gasoline for diluent. How will it get there?
6. Natural gas with high nitrogen content is not good for LNG, but more is coming in 2024 anyway.
5. Cheap natural gas prices will make 2024 a good year for ethane buyers. Not so good for producers.
4. Canadian crude flows into the U.S. will drop in 2024, narrowing the WTI-WCS differential.
3. Eagle Ford has a new lease on life and it’s dry gas from deep South Texas.
2. Permian crude oil takeaway pipelines are finally filling; the Midland-to-Houston price differential is coming back.
1. Energy markets have fundamentally and permanently shifted and we’ll see the implications in 2024.
GDP Now Drops Slightly -- Januuary 2, 2024
Locator: 46440ECON.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source
Personal investing: will be buying the following this week; selling nothing --
- AAPL: AAPL bucket
- CAT: big cap bucket
- WMT: big cap bucket
- MSFT: tech / big cap bucket
- Daimler: auto bucket
- RACE: auto bucket
- CVX: energy (possibly; not yet sure); link here.
Autos:
GDPNow: Link here. The trend is "down," but GDP continues to grow.
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Ships
From Judah and Lev in Portland, Oregon.
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