Population Trends By US State -- February 18, 2025

Locator: 48584POPULATION.

Link here.

Texas:

California:

This Was Not From "The Onion" -- February 18, 2025

Locator: 48583GOLD.

Link here.

End-Of-Day Report -- February 18, 2025

Locator: 48582B.

Another win for DOGE. Link here.

The New York Times must be going nuts:

I've never had so much fun following political reporting as I'm seeing now.  

Whether one agrees with Trump or not, one has to admit he is fascinating to watch (or scary).

Other presidents were advised to talk softly but carry a big stick. Trump seems to only have heard half of that advice.

The interesting thing is that Trump is not doing anything new -- there may be some minor exceptions -- everything he has done / is doing has been done in the past by Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden .... and best of all, by FDR and JFK.

Exhibit A: Obama cut hundreds of thousands of federal jobs; and, actually deported more illegal immigrants that Trump has so far (dynamic; needs to be fact-checked).

But legacy media is doing a great job reporting the "fails." But for every "fail, " Trump, et al, are scoring many, many wins.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.85.

Active rigs: 33.

Three new permits, #41619 - #41621, inclusive:

• Operators: Devon (2); BR.
• Fields: Ragged Butte (McKenzie); Elidah (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• BR has a permit for yet another Siverston well, SWSW 21-151-97, 
• to be sited 1815 FNL and 835 FWL; 1920-acre spacing: section 9/16/21-151-97.
• Devon has permits for two Sanders wells, SEE 33-151-101, 
• to be sited 350 FSL and 1010/1040 FEL: 1280-acre spacing, section 27/34-151-101.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38102, 75, BR, Stafford 01-34TFH, McKenzie County;
• 38359, 822, Petro Hunt, Sherven Trust 153-95-27A-26-1HS, McKenzie County; sections 26/27-153-95; see this post.
  

KFC Becomes TFC -- KFC Moves Headquarters To Plano (Dallas) Texas -- February 18, 2025

Locator: 48581KFC.

Plano, TX. 

Just up the road from us. 

Link here.

Most Fortune 500 companies in US headquartered in Plano. Or something to that effect. I don't know the specifics, but Plano, just north of Dallas has a boatload of Fortune 500 companies headquartered there.

Texas relocations are tracked here. Also here.

ISO-NE: Resource Mix -- Oil At 6% Vs Canadian Hydro At 3% -- February 18, 2025

Locator: 48580ISONE.

Energy:

• Texas has a "demand" problem.
• New England as a "supply" problem.

Despite wind providing as much energy as ever for New England, ISO-NE is still relying on oil at highest levels I've seen in some time. An astounding 6% of the resource mix is attributable to oil. Assuming "hydro" is not a limiting factor, my hunch is oil is very, very cheap compared to what Canada is charging New England for their "clean" energy.  Oil, at 6%, represents twice the resource mix compared to clean energy, "hydro" at 3%. Wow. They can't complete that Constitution pipeline fast enough!

Link here.

Apple -- The New M5 Chip -- An Update -- February 18, 2025

Locator: 48579APPLE.

Apple's M5 chip is tracked here.

I don't think there is much new here but it brings us up to date regarding Apple's next-generation M5 chip.

Link here.

Apple will bring its next-generation M5 chip to the MacBook Pro in the fall, followed by the iPad Pro in the first half of 2026, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman.

Gurman's latest claim flips the previously expected order of devices to transition from M4 to M5 chips, which was based on last year's M4 product launch order. Apple first introduced its M4 chip in an updated iPad Pro in May 2024, followed by the MacBook Pro in October, but it sounds like Apple will deviate from that timeline this time around.  

Before the release of M5 MacBook Pro models, Gurman says that Apple will launch updates to the Mac Studio and Mac Pro using its current generation M4 chip series. Those machines could arrive around Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference in June 2025.

The M5 series is expected to feature an enhanced ARM architecture and is reportedly being manufactured using TSMC's advanced 3-nanometer process technology.

Apple's decision to forgo TSMC's more advanced 2nm process for the M5 chip is believed to be due to cost considerations.

However, the high-end versions of the M5 will still feature significant advancements over their M4 equivalents, mainly through the adoption of TSMC's System on Integrated Chip (SoIC) technology.

This 3D chip-stacking approach vertically stacks the chips, which enhances thermal management and reduces electrical leakage compared to traditional 2D designs. Apple is said to have expanded its cooperation with TSMC on the next-generation hybrid SoIC package, which also combines thermoplastic carbon fiber composite molding technology.

Tech is tracked here. 

Chips are tracked here.

************************
Tesla: A Reminder

Tag: Tesla Musk Delaware incorporation Texas

Browsers For The NDIC Site -- February 18, 2025

Locator: 48578BROWSERS.

I was curious. I only use Safari and Chrome to access NDIC. At one time Firefox worked with NDIC but no longer.

So, I queried: does north dakota industrial commission website work with edge.

This was the first hit:

That's clearly wrong. When I click on that first hit, this is what I get:  

I "cut and paste" the URL that comes up with that search to either Safari or Chrome and it works fine.

I have never tried Internet Explorer (google says it won't work for NDIC) or Microsoft Edge.

Petro-Hunt Wells In Charlson Oil Field -- Sections 22/23-153-95 -- February 18, 2025

Locator: 48577B.

This is simply a random note. These wells are tracked elsewhere. 

Look at these incredible Petro-Hunt wells in the Charlson oil field, sections 22/23-153-95. Most of them -- if the paperwork / NDIC is up to date -- are still free-flowing -- no pump.

These wells are tracking toward one million bbls cumulative oil production. I assume with boe  .....

19979, AL, 817, Pertro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-1H, 2 sections, Charlson, t7/11; cum 620K 8/19; huge well; but old, but recent jump in production, 8/19; cum 786K 12/24; ....

• oil production: 785,894 bbls oil
• natural gas production: 1,332,499 MCF = 237,328 boe (link here) -- I have no idea if this is accurate; welcome to fact checking;
  
• oil plus natural gas, boe = 785,894 + 237,328 = 1.023222 million boe. Again, no idea if this is accurate. But it seems to fit; oil/natural gas ratio is often in the 75/25 ratio in an oil field. Over time, natural gas increases proportionately in an oil field.

 Updates

February 2, 2025

• 38359, drl, Petro-Hunt, Sherven Trust 153-95-27A-26-1HS, Charlson, noted that the well will come off confidential this next week; t--; cum npd February 18, 2025;
  

Original Post
Production Data May Be Updated Periodically 

This is an incredible location. There are a lot of wells here, but in the big scheme of things, many more wells are likely to be drilled, and I assume most of these are middle Bakken wells; if such, they still have the Three Forks to drill.

Charlson oil field:

• minerals in section 22-153-95
• minerals in adjacent section 23-153-95
• 1280-acre units
• 22/15-153-95
• 23-14-153-95
• 640-acre unit: 23-153-95
• 1280-acre units: 22/15-153-95
• 1280-acre units: 23/14-153-95
• 2560-acre unit: 23/22/14/15-153-95 (?); could be others

Wells of interest (when last checked, status of well):

• 27056, AL, a line well, sited in section 28, runs north along west section line of section 22; end in section 22; 1,803, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28D-21-2HS, t9/14; cum 372K 8/19; steady Eddy; down to 3,000 bbls/month, 8/19; spacing, 4 section (2560-are): sections 21/22/27/28-153-95; cum 473K 12/24;
  

• 30569, F, 564, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22C-15-6H, middle Bakken, 41 stages; 10 million lbs, 2 sections, Charlson, t10/18; cum 184K 8/19; huge well; very new, 8/19; cum 629K 12/24;
  
• 19979, AL, 817, Pertro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-1H, 2 sections, Charlson, t7/11; cum 620K 8/19; huge well; but old, but recent jump in production, 8/19; cum 786K 12/24;
  
• 22334, AL, 2,006, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22C-15-2H, Charlson, t12/12; cum 451K 8/19; steady Eddy; continues to do well at almost 3,000 bbls/month, 8/19; cum 524K 12/24;
  
• 26214,, AL, 2,122, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95 22C-15-3H, Charlson, t1/14; cum 569K 8/19; steady Eddy; holding up well; at 6,000 bbls/month, 8/19; cum 749K 12/24;
  

• 28018, F, 835, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-4H, Charlson, t10/16; cum 496K 8/19; huge well; still at 8,000 bbls/month, 8/19; cum 728K 12/24; cum 628K 12/24;
  
• 28017, F, 830, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-5H, Charlson, t10/16; cu 466K 8/19; huge well; still at 7,000 bbls/month, 8/19; cum 630K 12/24;
  
• 28016, F, 912, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-1HS, middle Bakken, 37 stages; 4.7 million lbs, Charlson, t11/15; cum 721K 8/19; huge well; still at 8,000 bbls/month, 8/19; cum 865K 12/24;
  
• 28015, F, 816, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-2HS, Charlson, four sections, t101/6; cum 538K 8/19; huge well; still at 10,000 bbls/month, 8/19; cum 692K 12/24;
  
• 30183, F, 724, Petro-Hunt, Sherven Trust 153-95-27A-7HS, middle Bakken, 26 stages, 2.1 million lbs; Charlson, two sections, t10/16; cum 208K 8/19; cum 289K 12/24;
  

• 29090, F, 1,032, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-6H, Charlson, t7/18; cum 242K 819; huge well; cum 492K 12/24;
  
• 29091, F, 1,031, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-5H, Charlson, t6/18; cum 223K 8/19; huge well; cum 371K 12/24;
• 32165, F, 1,090, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-4H, Charlson, t5/18; cum 254K 8/19; huge well; cum 526K 12/24;

• 33812, F, 1,480, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14 3H, Charlson, t7/18; cum 232K 8/19; huge well; cum 490K 12/24;
• 33813, F, 1,595, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14-2H, Charlson, t7/18; cum 396K 8/19; huge well; cum 749K 12/24;
• 33814, F, 1,773, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14 1H, Charlson, t7/18; cum 308K 8/19; huge well; cum 667K 12/24;
• 33817, F, 683, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-1411HS, two sections, Charlson, t7/18; cum 373K 8/19; huge well; cum 782K 12/24;

• 17799, AL, 457, BR, Guadalupe 11-23H, one section, Charlson, t3/09; cum 542K 8/19; huge jump 7/18; not re-fracked; cum 869K 12/24;

• 16452, AL, 265, Petro-Hunt, USA 14D-4-1H, one section, open hole, 425,000 lbs sand, Charlson, 10/07 cum 374K 8/19; huge jump 8/18; cum 435K 12/24;

 

Sentinel Update -- RBN Energy -- February 18, 2025

Locator: 48575B.

Student debt: US appeals court blocks Biden SAVE plan for student loans. 

Biden's SAVE plan was incredibly "minimal in nature," but even that was beyond the law.

The plaintiffs argued that Biden, with SAVE, was essentially trying to find a roundabout way to forgive student debt after the US Supreme Court blocked his sweeping debt cancellation plan in June, 2023 ... which probably means if this case were to be appealed to the US Supreme Court, the latter would not take the case.

Of course, the media reporting that story morphs into a story about US House GOP members looking to raise more money in this arena to pay for Trump's tax cuts. This, of course, has nothing to do with the headline story.

The long game: is the Southern District of New York the real prize for the DOJ?

Victor Davis Hanson: if I have time for but one "news" podcast, it's Victor Davis Hanson. Period. Dot. 

• This one, the most recent, is particularly good.

DEI: the "bell-shaped" curve -- we're way past the up-slope; way past the peak; and, now we're going down the slope, clearly ending DEI. 

Immigration; why are citizens / legal residents so angry in the US and Europe with regard to illegal immigration? Illegal immigrants are given more freedoms, more laxity, more benefits than citizens / legal residents. That's why they are angry.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.43.

New wells:

• Wednesday, February 19, 2025: 36 for the month, 81 for the quarter, 81 for the year,
• 40428, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred North 17-15 4H,
• Tuesday, February 18, 2025: 35 for the month, 80 for the quarter, 80 for the year,
• 40845, conf, CLR, Catron 5-26H,
• Monday, February 17, 2025: 34 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 79 for the year,
• 40854, conf, CLR, Taney 6-23H,
• 40853, conf, CLR, Taney 5-23H,
• 40409, conf, Enerplus, Valiant 150-94-06B-LL,
• 36621, conf, BR, West Kellogg 2B-UTFH,
• Sunday, February 16, 2025: 30 for the month, 75 for the quarter, 75 for the year,
• 40844, conf, CLR, Catron 4-26H,
• 40225, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living Tr-LE-156-98-2017H-1,
• Saturday, February 15, 2025: 28 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 73 for the year,
• 39840, conf, CLR, Harms West Federal 5-32H2,

RBN Energy: Sentinel's Texas GulfLink makes big strides forward in export terminal race. Archived.

In the race to build the next deepwater crude oil export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico, Sentinel Midstream’s proposed Texas GulfLink (TGL) has become one of the frontrunners. TGL’s plan gained its crucial Record of Decision (ROD) Approval from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration (MARAD) on February 14, but there is still some distance to go before a final investment decision (FID) is reached. In today’s RBN blog we’ll discuss Sentinel’s TGL plan, why it might be uniquely positioned to move forward, and the other contenders still in play. 

Let’s start with a refresher on the TGL project and efforts to build a deepwater export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico*. TGL, which at one point was considered a Dark Horse in the multi-year competition, would feature a deepwater platform (orange-and-white striped square in Figure 1 below) able to load a tanker at a rate of 85 Mb/hour, 2 MMb/d, which would allow it to fully load a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) in one day. The platform, located nearly 30 miles offshore Freeport, TX, would be connected via the 42-inch-diameter Texas GulfLink Pipeline (dashed orange line) to an onshore storage terminal at Jones Creek (aqua-and-white-striped tank icon west of Freeport) in Brazoria County. At the onshore facility, about 9 MMbbl of above-ground tanks would be supplied from the Houston area, including the Webster Terminal (pastel-yellow tank icon), giving the project access to significant volumes of Permian originated crude oil, in addition to other grades feeding that market.

[*Yes, we know that Gulf of Mexico has been renamed Gulf of America by the Trump administration. For now, we are going to stick with Gulf of Mexico not out of protest or spite, but because that is what it is still called by the majority of the energy market.]

Figure 1. Sentinel’s Proposed Texas GulfLink Project and Other Nearby Infrastructure. Source: RBN

We’ve written a great deal in the RBN blogosphere about the fierce, multi-year competition to build a deepwater terminal (see Gulf Coast Time). U.S. crude export volumes took off in the 2010s and were expected to continue growing along with production throughout the 2020s, driving the market to seek the most efficient export options. Prior to 2018, numerous terminals were proposed along the Gulf Coast including a number of offshore single-point mooring (SPM) facilities that would be able to fully load a VLCC without reverse lightering. However, in the downturn of 2020, some of those projects were scrapped, leaving four developmental projects and the one in-service offshore facility in Louisiana. 

Sentinel Update -- RBN Energy -- February 18, 2025

Locator: 48576B.

RBN Energy: Sentinel's Texas GulfLink makes big strides forward in export terminal race. Archived.

In the race to build the next deepwater crude oil export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico, Sentinel Midstream’s proposed Texas GulfLink (TGL) has become one of the frontrunners. TGL’s plan gained its crucial Record of Decision (ROD) Approval from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration (MARAD) on February 14, but there is still some distance to go before a final investment decision (FID) is reached. In today’s RBN blog we’ll discuss Sentinel’s TGL plan, why it might be uniquely positioned to move forward, and the other contenders still in play. 

Let’s start with a refresher on the TGL project and efforts to build a deepwater export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico*. TGL, which at one point was considered a Dark Horse in the multi-year competition, would feature a deepwater platform (orange-and-white striped square in Figure 1 below) able to load a tanker at a rate of 85 Mb/hour, 2 MMb/d, which would allow it to fully load a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) in one day. The platform, located nearly 30 miles offshore Freeport, TX, would be connected via the 42-inch-diameter Texas GulfLink Pipeline (dashed orange line) to an onshore storage terminal at Jones Creek (aqua-and-white-striped tank icon west of Freeport) in Brazoria County. At the onshore facility, about 9 MMbbl of above-ground tanks would be supplied from the Houston area, including the Webster Terminal (pastel-yellow tank icon), giving the project access to significant volumes of Permian originated crude oil, in addition to other grades feeding that market.

[*Yes, we know that Gulf of Mexico has been renamed Gulf of America by the Trump administration. For now, we are going to stick with Gulf of Mexico not out of protest or spite, but because that is what it is still called by the majority of the energy market.]

Figure 1. Sentinel’s Proposed Texas GulfLink Project and Other Nearby Infrastructure. Source: RBN

We’ve written a great deal in the RBN blogosphere about the fierce, multi-year competition to build a deepwater terminal (see Gulf Coast Time). U.S. crude export volumes took off in the 2010s and were expected to continue growing along with production throughout the 2020s, driving the market to seek the most efficient export options. Prior to 2018, numerous terminals were proposed along the Gulf Coast including a number of offshore single-point mooring (SPM) facilities that would be able to fully load a VLCC without reverse lightering. However, in the downturn of 2020, some of those projects were scrapped, leaving four developmental projects and the one in-service offshore facility in Louisiana.

******************************
Sentinel Midstream GulfLink

From earlier on the blog:

RBN Energy's top ten prognostications for 2025, link here: 

6. No offshore SPM crude oil terminal will be sanctioned in 2025. 

We really hope to be proved wrong on this one, but it just looks like this is a case where the benefits do not justify the cost. Since 2018, numerous offshore single-point mooring (SPM) terminals have been proposed along the Gulf Coast to fully load a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) without reverse lightering.

Currently, only the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) can handle VLCCs but it is limited to two ships per month on average, far below the one per day a couple of the SPMs could manage.

The remaining projects — Energy Transfer’s Blue Marlin, Sentinel Midstream’s Texas GulfLink, Phillips 66’s Bluewater Texas, and Enterprise’s Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) — have faced regulatory hurdles but made progress, with SPOT receiving its U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD) license in April.

Yet none have reached a final investment decision (FID) after nearly seven years of development. The problem is shifting market dynamics. Initially, U.S. crude exports to Asia (15,000 nautical miles from the Gulf Coast) justified VLCC efficiencies, but Europe now takes 45% of exports compared to 40% to Asia, driven by demand shifts due to the Ukraine war and declining North Sea production. The shorter 5,000-nautical-mile trip to Europe diminishes the economic advantage of VLCCs, making shippers hesitant to commit to long-term capacity deals for the SPM terminals. Granted there are still good reasons for one or more of the SPMs to be sanctioned. But it is more difficult today to get shippers signed up than it originally looked, and that’s a situation that will likely get worse before it gets better.

Also from April 25, 2024, also on the blog:

RBN Energy: Sentinel Midstream's Texas GulfLink emerges as serious contender in export terminal race. Archived.

In the race to build the next deepwater crude oil export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico, Sentinel Midstream’s proposed Texas GulfLink (TGL) is currently in second place in the regulatory race, behind only Enterprise’s Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) — and seems to be emerging as a serious contender. The plan offers some compelling attributes, including Sentinel’s status as an independent midstream player and plenty of pipeline access to crude oil volumes in the Permian and elsewhere. In today’s RBN blog, we turn our attention to TGL and what it brings to the table.

 From AI: