Laser-Focused On Dividends -- OKE Raises Quarterly Dividend -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46586DIV.

OKE: increases quarterly dividend.

EIA: Electricity Rates Surge -- ISO-NE; Fall Significantly In ERCOT -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46585ELECTRICITY.
Locator: 46585RENEWABLE.

Electricity wholesale prices, 2024.

I find this one of the most interesting graphs this week: link here.

Eleven regions.

EIA: "in most US regions, 2024 wholesale electricity prices will be similar to those in 2023."

Exceptions, 2024  / 2023, year / year:

• only two regions show any notable increase: NYISO and ISO-NE
• greatest increase: ISO-NE
• from $48 to $60
• a 25% increase y/y
• only three regions show a notable decrease: ERCOT, Southwest, and California
  
• greatest decrease: ERCOT
• from an incredible $80 to $47
• a 41% decrease

EVs -- Reality Setting In -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46584EVS.

Themes, 2024, link here:

EVs: have lost their luster

• 2024 was to have been the break-out year for EVs
• high interest rates and the long UAW strike will push this transition out at least another three years (2027)
• it's obvious that EVs are luxury cars, and Americans are subsidizing rich folks to buy luxury cars
• state governments will realize that lost gasoline tax revenue is a huge problem for highway maintenance, much less new highways

Updates

Saturday, January 20, 2024: link here ---

From the linked article:

Tesla is on the cusp of an ignominious record. If shares close lower on Friday, it will be the tenth trading day of losses out of the first 12—the worst start of any year in Tesla’s history.

Shares fell nine out of the first 12 trading days to start 2015 and 2016. Still, Tesla’s recent performance looks absolutely glowing compared with some peers. Shares of Chinese EV makers NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto were off 4.5%, 4.1%, and 3%, respectively, in Friday trading.

For January so far, NIO shares were down 34%, while XPeng dropped 35%, and Li shares were down 25%.

There isn’t much new to pin Friday’s declines on. Instead it’s a continuation of a significant theme: Chinese EV price wars that have weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

Original Post 

Disruptive:

• EVs: link here. Scorecard. 
• cash burn
  
• graphite
• not for me. "Energy transition is dead" is followed here.
  
• EVs charging. 
• cold weather -- reality sets in
• resale value -- a deal-breaker
  

Tesla: All major EV auto manufacturers were down today, including GM, F, Tesla, Polestar, Lucid, Rivan, some significantly. From Barron's: 

The US Army:

My take from the Barron's article: this is all to be expected. It's a learning curve. Deal with it. 

Frankly, I'm getting tired of that attitude.

Nvidia, AMD, AI Chips -- The Fog Is Starting To Clear -- I Don't Know About You, But To Me, It's Starting To Look Like An Inflection Point -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46583CHIPS.

Tag: chips semiconductor "inflection point"

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

• Home page for tech: link here.
• The cloud: link here.  
• Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
• Spatial computing: link here.
• Generative AI: link here. 
• Apple Silicon: link here.
• Supercomputers: link here.

Updates

January 19, 2024:

Original Post

Everybody's talking. 

Quickly, the tech links today. 

Link here.

Link here.

Tickers today:

BRK-B, past five days:

Tesla: All major EV auto manufacturers were down today, including GM, F, Tesla, Polestar, Lucid, Rivan, some significantly. From Barron's: 

The US Army:

My take from the Barron's article: this is all to be expected. It's a learning curve. Deal with it. 

Frankly, I'm getting tired of that attitude.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Wholesale Electricity Costs; Four New Permits; Three Permits Renewed; One DUC Reported As Completed -- US -- 2023 / 2024

Locator: 46582ELECTRICITY.

Google cost of electricity US region

Link here.

*********************************
Money To Be Made In "Trading Energy"

Link here.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $73.98.

Active rigs: 39.

Four new permits, #40457 - #40460, inclusive:

• Operator: Slawson
• Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Comments:
• Slawson has permits for two Nightmaker wells and two Snakeeyes wells, in NENE 20-152-92; 
• to be sited 620 FNL and between 940 FEL and 1090 FEL;

Three permits renewed:

• Whiting (2): a Kaldahl permit, Ray oil field, Williams County; a G Bergstrom permit, Dollar Joe permit, Williams County;
• Enerplus: a fort Berthold permit, Eagle Nest, Dunn County.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 37326, 1,875, SOGC, Porcupine 5-19H, Little Knife:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	16	30583	29598	39781	42376	0	42316

Wells of interest:

• 19520, 1,038, SOGC, Hovden Federal 1-20H, t3/11; cum 295K 11/23; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	8000	7871	29600	5250	0	5137
BAKKEN	10-2023	6	1034	442	4830	1475	3	1449
BAKKEN	9-2023	1	1	225	0	4	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	29	3516	4001	6323	4365	4207	52
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	4228	4174	7967	4864	4704	43
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	4196	4281	8619	5091	2486	2492
BAKKEN	5-2023	26	2885	2243	7218	3593	0	3495
BAKKEN	4-2023	16	411	653	1523	497	0	437
BAKKEN	3-2023	16	1210	1141	2858	1446	0	1374
BAKKEN	2-2023	14	2011	2510	7040	2690	0	2637
BAKKEN	1-2023	30	4574	3880	19492	6333	0	6220

• 19269, 410, SOGC, Porcupine. 1-19H, t9/11; cum 280K 8/23; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	23	1631	2241	2317	4433	0	4346
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	2426	2229	3210	5457	0	5340
BAKKEN	6-2023	29	2260	2242	2958	5330	0	5221

• 31314, TA/A, SOGC, Porcupine 2-19H, Little Knife, t7/21; cum 169K 11/23; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	2603	2488	12203	2483	0	2370
BAKKEN	10-2023	2	120	0	300	46	0	35
BAKKEN	9-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	5	210	670	490	512	0	493
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	5807	5792	8710	10027	0	9910
BAKKEN	6-2023	29	5584	6279	8662	7979	0	7870
BAKKEN	5-2023	25	3625	2660	6962	4343	0	4249
BAKKEN	4-2023	1	0	0	133	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	19	2884	3406	4315	4402	0	4330

• The third well on that pad, #31515, is on the confidential status.

Apparently France Has Re-Run The Numbers -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46581COSTRENEWABLES.

Link here.

This is from the green energy advisor for France. The counterpart to our own John Kerry. By the way, in interviews, John Kerry says the same things.

My hunch: this guy / gal isn't going to hold his / her job for long.

Gasoline Demand -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46581GASOLINEDEMAND.

Link here. 

Quickly -- The Tech Links Today -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46580TSM.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Quick links.

• Barron's TSM: rising, bullish call for chip growth;
• Whispers TSM: conference call; 
• Yahoo: tech leads stock gains as chipmakers shine;
• Yahoo: TSMC bullish on AI demand; forecasts 20% revenue growth this year;

Off The Blog -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46579READING10K.

Breaking: Spirit Airlines -- on the way to bankruptcy?

I have a luncheon date, but when I get back it will be time to take a look at tech, but I will leave you with this chart. Several points to be made:

• this chart is a one-year look, but no matter what time-frame one looks, it's a disaster for BRK-B (three months; six months; one year; five years)
• we all had the same information one year ago; perhaps not five years ago, but a year ago, "everyone" knew; TSM was the big stock in the news today;
• Warren bought, then quickly sold TSM some months ago;
• this is why it's so important to read 10-Ks.

Josh: has it exactly right -- why the consumer is so resilient. LOL. 

March, 2024, rate announcement: absolutely matters now.

Re-Posting

Link here.

Also, when I bought JNJ years ago I never knew about JNJ's talcum powder issue. But other than that, the 10-Ks have been very helpful. LOL.

Oh, that's right ... there was also the Texaco fiasco -- involving Paul Getty or something along that line ... I’ve long forgotten ... but other than that the 10-Ks have been very helpful. 

Oh, yes, the whole thing with Lucent decades ago...

Oh, another one ... 3M ... multiple lawsuits, including the biggie -- the hearing protection issue -- I never even knew 3M was involved with hearing protection ... yeah, reading those 10-Ks have been a real hoot.

Now, back to Shakespeare and The Merchant of Venice --- which, by the way, also involves a lawsuit. LOL.

Oil: Surging Today -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46578WTI.

WTI: up almost 2%; up almost $1.40; trading right at $74.

Let's look at some of the stories earlier today:

• Bloomberg: oil surplus in 2023 confounded the bulls; it doesn't matter. LOL.
• IEA: raises oil demand outlook for 2024 third consecutive month.
• twitter: the oil boom almost no one sawing (nominee for Geico Rock Award 2024?)

Jerry's Decision -- Absolutely Brilliant -- And "First Take" Pundits Don't Get It -- With One Exception -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46577COWBOYS.

Updates

Later, 10:29 p.m. CT:  Molly on "First Take" had this exactly right. 

The others talked ad nauseum about the decision by Jerry Jones. Molly summarized it in less than 30 seconds: it was a business decision. Nothing more, nothing less. Some owners measure their success by the number of rings / pennants; others measure their success  by number of zeros after the "$" sign. Quick: name the owner of the team that won the last Super Bowl. Quick: name the owner with the most Super Bowl rings. Quick: name the owner of the most valuable NFL franchise.

The Cowboys are in a "financial pickle." Dak Prescott's contract comes to an end in 2024. But all of a sudden, that extension might cost Jerry Jones a whole lot less.

Mike McCarthy's final year in current contract is this year.

Oilmen can make a business decision in a New York minute. Others? Not so much.

Original Post

Wow, wow, wow. 

Jerry Jones sticks with Mike McCarthy.

Talking heads at First Take don't get it -- one exception. Molly. She got it right.

Maybe I'll write more on this later, but it all makes sense. And Molly got it just right.

I can't say I was surprised, but now that Jerry Jones has made the decision, his decision can be easily explained. It makes so much sense. 

But note: there was no announcement that any contracts would be extended. This implies: one and done; 2025: win or go home.

So that I remember my thoughts if I were to address this issue again later, some prompts:

• Dallas Cowboys: the most valuable team in the NFL;
• dollars: bottom line;
• Jerry Jones made his money in oil; history of risk aversion; contrarian.
• keep the conversation going
• Dak getting older; injury-prone? 
• Aaron Rogers 
• younger teams; time to re-build?
• age of the starting QBs for the 32 NFL teams: throw out the outliers (32+) and the average age appears to be about 24 years old. Dak? 30 years old. Not getting any younger. 

Amazing Charts -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46576CHARTS.

Everything suggests that we've reached the mid-winter nadir. All I see right now? Blue skies as far as I can see. Don't bother me with details or facts. LOL.

Most important data point today for investors bullish on America:

EIA petroleum report, link here:

• jet fuel supplied: up an astounding 6.2%, y/y -- and this is the slow season for flying; only ones flying at this time -- business travelers. In this week's EIAWPR nothing else matters. Period. Dot.
  

Most amazing chart, link here:

Unemployment claims, today, link here:

Birkenstock, link here:

Investors unhappy, stock falls, but the resilience of the American consumer:

Demand for Birkenstock's footwear, which retails for as much as $350 a pair, has remained resilient and the company has also benefited from efforts to boost sales through its own website and stores.

My favorite chart, link here and here:

 

Busy, Busy, Busy Day -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46575B.

So many "unexpected" data points today. 

Blue skies are here again, a musical interlude.

On the desktop today:

• oil surplus, 2023, unexpected;
• oil demand;
  
• France gets it;
• Europe's solar crisis;
  
• jobless claims; what a great country.
  
• money to be made; lots. Amazing. I've never seen a chart like this.
  
• PLUG; posted below.
  
• EVs;
• Birkenstock;
• TSM;
• chipmakers;
• electricity;
• monthly retail sales; most amazing chart.
  
• my favorite chart;
• China's energy problem; 
• most irritating commercial right now: Peyton Manning's Bud Lite, buying for the bar.
  

EIA petroleum report, link here: not reachable after embargo. Now being told that report has been delayed for 30 minutes.

• US crude oil in storage: decreased by 2.5 million bbls; now at 3% below five-year average;
  
• US crude oil imports: 6.6% more, y/y;
  
• refiners: 92.6%;
  
• distillate fuel: increased, and now only 3% below the five-year average;
  
• jet fuel supplied: up an astounding 6.2%, y/y -- and this is the slow season for flying; only ones flying at this time -- business travelers.

Days supply, US, crude oil: 25.9 days. Link here.

***************************
PLUG

Link here.

Ticker:

RBN Energy On The Bakken -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46574B.

OKE: announces hike in dividend. Bigger than usual; bigger than expected (?). Paying 5.5%. P/E 13.

Personal investing today: bought AMD. Still deciding for two other tickers but both will be in tech. Possibly CAT, DE or TSC. [Later: Oracle.]

Three big stories today:

• not on my bingo card today: RBN Energy, Bakken. See below.
• my favorite chart -- The WSJ
• TSM

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.61,

Sunday, January 21, 2024: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter, 41 for the year
39280, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-2MBHX,
39279, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-1MBHX,
39278, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-20MBHX,
39277, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-5MBHX,
30951, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 4B,
30915, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 TFH,

Saturday, January 20, 2024: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter, 35 for the year
39946, conf,  Resonance Exploration, Resonance Lodoen 12-36H INJ,
30914, conf, BR, Curtis 14-9 MBH,

Friday, January 19, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year
None.

Thursday, January 18, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: Bakken production growth will soon test infrastructure limitations. Archived.

In North Dakota’s Bakken production region, crude oil is king. The light, sweet crude produced there is attractive to buyers in the Midwest and Gulf Coast and is the primary driver of producer economics in the basin. And when the crude is produced, it comes along with a healthy dose of NGL-rich associated natural gas. But while those are valuable products in their own right, providing economic uplift when sold, it’s a double-edged sword. Natural gas and NGL volumes are increasing rapidly and will soon test the limits of takeaway capacity, with the potential to disrupt not only those commodities but also the crude production with which they’re associated. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss three potential limitations faced by Bakken producers: natural gas pipeline capacity, NGL pipeline capacity and, at the fulcrum of those two, the Btu heat content of the gas being piped out of the basin.