Thursday, February 20, 2025

BR -- Charlson Oil Field -- February 25, 2025 -- To Be Completed Later

Locator: 48598B.

Drilling / fracking activity?

 

The five wells on confidential list, the lower map:

  • 36825, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2A MBH, Charlson,
  • 36826, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2B TFH, Charlson,
  • 36827, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2C TFH, Charlson,
  • 36828, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2D MBH, Charlson,
  • 36829, conf, BR, Three Washers 2E TFH-ULW, Charlson,

The three wells inside the oval in the upper map:

  • 20635, 2,477, BR, Frio 24-34H, t6/12; cum 328K 7/24; off line since 7/24;
  • 20636, 1,363, BR, Brazo 24-34H, t6/12; cum 224K 7/24; off line since 10/24;
  • 20637 1,980, BR, Llano 34-34H, t6/12; cum 357K 7/24; off line since 11/24;

Three other wells of interest in the northwest quadrant of section 34, not shown on either map:

  • 33931, 53, BR, Three Sons 1A TFH-ULW, Charlson, t7/18; cum 181K 12/24; sporadic / variable production since at least 12/23;  maybe earlier;
  • 33932, 208, BR, Three Rivers 1B MBH, Charlson, t7/18; cum 266K 12/24; off line 11/24 - 12/24 (most recent data)
  • 33933, 192, BR, Three Rivers 1C TFH, Charlson, t7/18; cum 207K 12/24; off line 11/23 - 10/24; now back on line with jump in production.

End-Of-Day Report

Locator: 48597B.

The biggest story of the day: Amazon gains creative control of James Bond franchise from the Broccoli family. More on this later. This is a big story.  Link here.

Another win for Trump:

Rivian: link here.

The market was not impressed with Rivian losing only $2 billion / year.

The company forecast deliveries of 46,000 units to 51,000 units for 2025, compared with 51,579 vehicles delivered last year. The benchmark going forward: 50,000.

Market: on a day that the DJI has fallen or is going to fall more than a 100 points, I generally don't check in. Today, was such a day. I saw early on that the DJI was going to fall by a couple hundred of points (Walmart-related, it was said) and for that reason, I did not look at the market all day.

A reader reached out to me at 11:00 a.m. this morning -- or thereabouts -- saying they had an appointment with their Schwab broker later this afternoon-- and wanted my thoughts on selling AAPL today. Their broker wants them to sell some of their AAPL because they are overweight in that stock.

The market was down, and Apple announced a new product yesterday. Generally speaking, Apple analysts are never impressed by new Apple products and following a new product announcement, Apple generally sells off. Coupled with this being a down day for the market, I thought AAPL would not do well at all. [One wonders to what extent a small short squeeze might have influenced AAPL's share price today.]

So, I assumed that's what AAPL would do today. Fall.

I told the reader that I would not be selling but everyone's situation is different. I have a 30-year horizon and will continue to add a few shares of AAPL whenever I can, shares which I will never see -- repeat: shares that I will never see -- and will be passed on to our five grandchildren.

But having provided that advice, I was curious -- I just checked the indices over at CNBC and saw that indeed the DJI had fallen 500 points (Walmart-related, "they" say). The other indices also fell but not by much in the big scheme of things.

My assumption was that AAPL probably gave up a few dollars per share, maybe as much as $3.00 but certainly not as much as $5.00 but nothing regarding AAPL surprises me any more.

I about dropped off my chair to see AAPL solidly in the green today at the close, up about a dollar per share. Completely unexpected. I see that immediately after the market closed, AAPL was down 15 cents, so there's that.

I took a chance. I decided to take a look at my entire Schwab portfolio. Wow, wow, wow -- one of my best days since the beginning of the year. I have no idea why. I won't check anything else. 

But at least I feel good for my reader that AAPL held strong today. 

With regard to Walmart -- their board was so concerned about the company's future, they announced they will raise the quarterly dividend by 17 percent, from 20 cents to 23.5 cents. At least that's what I thought they said. I could be wrong. Please fact-check everything I write. I often make typographical and/or content errors. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.57.

Active rigs: 30.

Seven new permits, #41625 - #41631, inclusive:

  • Operators: BR (5); Hess (2)
  • Fields: Haystack Butte-Bakken Unit, McKenzie County; Truax (Williams County)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for two SC-Mari wells, NWNW 22-153-98; 
      • to be sited 338/355 FNL and 517/519 FWL;
    • BR has permits for five HBU Badlands wells, SENW 24-148-98, 
      • to be sited 1799/1862 FNL and 2600/2624 FWL and 2626 / 2577 FEL.

Note: the new field -- the Haystack Butte-Bakken Unit. (HBU)

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38491, 797, Petro-Hunt, State 153-95-17B-16-1H, McKenzie County;
  • 40759, 576, Slawson, Fish Finder 5-21-9H, Mountrail County;
  • 40688, 523, Slawson, Fish Finder 4-21-9H, Mountrail County;

Maps Of The Day -- Petro-Hunt -- Charlson Oil Field -- February 20, 2025

Locator: 48596B.

Coming off confidential list tomorrow: 

  • 38671, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-33 1H,  Charlson:


 


The wells in the bottom map:
  • 38667, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-33 5H, Charlson, t--; cum --;
  • 38668, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-33 4H, Charlson, t--; cum --;
  • 38669, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-33 3H, Charlson, t--; cum --;
  • 34653, 651, Petro-Hunt, USA 3D-10-5H, Charlson, t6/21; cum 490K 8/24; off line since 8/24;
  • 17668, 1,163, Petro-Hunt, USA 3D-4-4H, Charlson, t9/09; cum 857K 8/24; off line since 8/24;
  • 34654, 903, Petro-Hunt, USA 3D-10-6H, Charlson, t1/21; cum 575K 8/24; off line since 8/24;
  • 38670, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-33 2H, Charlson, t--; cum --;
  • 38671, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-33 1H,  Charlson,


 

The wells in this map:

  • 34655, 1,748, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-1H, Charlson, F; t8/19; cum 787K 12/24;
  • 34656, 1,131, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-2H, Charlson, AL; t8/19; cum 459K 12/24;
  • 34657, 1,328, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-3H, Charlson, F; t8/19; cum 913K 12/24;
  • 34658, 1,050, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-4H, Charlson, F; t8/19; cum 587K 12/24;

This Story Didn't Age Well -- February 20, 2025

Locator: 48595FBI.

This story was posted shortly after Trump was elected to his second term and well before he took the oath of office.

Link here

We won't know the "final" average -- but as far as his most important cabinet appointments, all completed within 30 days. Speaks volumes on several layers. Look at Biden's record.

Kash Patel: 51 - 49. Collins and Murkowski vote "no," along with all Democrat senators and two who claim to be independents. Had Mitch McConnell voted "no," JD Vance would have had to come in with another tie-ending vote. Wow, what theatrics. 

Trump Solves The Egg Price Problem -- At Least In Texas -- One Month In Office -- February 20, 2025

Locator: 48594EGGS.

North Texas. DFW area.

Walmart.

No restrictions on number of eggs one wants to buy.

Full dozen of large eggs: $3.68.

In Mitch McConnell's state: as much as $6.00 / dozen -- and regular, not large:

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Mileage
2012 Honda Civic 

Purchased in late 2011, in Williston, ND:

Short Sleeve Weather Just Around The Corner In The Bakken? February 20, 2025

Locator: 48593B.

The Buzz -- Part 2 -- Apple -- February 20, 2025

Locator: 48592APPLE.

Link here.

The above article is very, very long and incredibly detailed. But of all the attributes of this modem is this fact: unlike a chip from other supplier, this chip (model) is optimized for the iPhone in which it is placed. It is not an off-the shelf modem designed by a third party, nor it is a custom-designed modem, designed by a third party that has allegiances to more than one customer. In this case, the Apple C1 modem is designed to be integrated into the final product from day 1. 

See disclaimer: I have no interest in the iPhone 16e as an investment story. I am only interested in the iPhone 16e story because I find the story so incredibly compelling. I have every intention of upgrading from my third generation SE but there is no hurry. This new 16e is going to be around for at least two years, probably four, and possibly longer, depending.

Apple, C1: I am really, really jazzed about the new iPhone 16e. I may track the iPhone 16e here. There are several layers of issues here:

  • the iPhone 16 family
  • the price of the new iPhone 16e: are you kidding me?
    • at $25 / month and folks have the audacity to say this is too expensive for perhaps the most important / must-have device Americans use / need 24/7.
    • the price of a dozen eggs each week
    • over four years? $12 / month
  • the capability of the new iPhone 16e
  • satellite capability -- ya think DOD might want these for their troops? See below.
    • this means every iPhone going forward has / will have this capability
  • I will expand on all of this later -- but for me the two biggest things -- the long list of "improvements" that the iPhone 16e has -- it's truly overwhelming ... perhaps the biggest one that caught my eye -- generally when Apple adds more "capacity", the cost goes up significantly -- in this case the cost went up but the capacity was so much greater than anyone imagined.

Best iPhone alternatives, link here:

The link for the best overall iPhone alternative takes you to Amazon:

Satellite?


Does MSFT still charge for some of these apps?  

With iPhones, nearly 100 apps are included, already downloaded, ready-to-go, at no additional cost -- including word documents, spreadsheets, notes, "FindMe," the best browser out there, and so much more. At wiki, the entire list.

Apple shows 75 pre-installed apps at no extra cost. 

And they just work. For some reason, this Apple link does not include the pre-installed brower, Safari. And I was surprised that Firefox is pre-installed. I was unaware of that. Also, "Maps" not listed in some of these links but "Maps" is obviously pre-installed: both Google maps and Safari maps. And, now, of course, the AI app. Will this show up as SiriGPT? Just a very few here:


 ChatGPT
???

Once folks start using ChatGPT, your life will change forever.

The Buzz -- Part 1 -- February 20, 2025

Locator: 48591BUZZ.

The buzz. It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. 

Must-watch TV tonight: NHL. USA vs Canada. The big question: will there actually be any hockey played? A bigger question: will Trump actually attend? LOL.

NYTimes: as usual, The New York Times completely misreads this. If y'all listened to Trump, you would know what's going on.

WMT: tumbles. How worried is Walmart about this? Not at all. Walmart raises its quarterly dividend from 20 cents / share to 23.5 cents / share. Is a 3.5-cent-jump on 20 cents = a 17.5% jump in its quarterly dividend?


iPhone 16e: Link to TWSJ. The entire iPhone 16 family.

Before the iPhone 16e was released: link to TWSJ.

C1: incredible. More will be posted. One can start here. Or here:

Buffett: cuts holdings in banks. Holds AAPL position. Speaks volumes. Link to TWSJ here.

Medicare vs Medicare Advantage. DOGE. Finally, I get it. No longer worried. No longer concerned. But it explains all the telemarketer calls. Link to Barron's.

DOA: EPA, California waiver. Finally, a link without a paywall.

Ukraine: British troops on ground? Can't even get there without US air. Link here. The bigger story here? It's a sad day when the Brits / Europeans can't even get their troops to the front line ... on their own continent.

Europe: dire straits. Link here. Things have gotten pretty bad when Americans are starting to "vote" for Putin, and not Zelenskyy. But when Zelenskyy admits he can't account for $6 billion of the money the US sent him .... I think most of us can figure out who has it, even if we don't know where it is ...

Mexico: cars. More than any American even knows. Link here. No wonder Mexico is running scared.

Nissan: six models under $30,000. Link here.

LA ports: surge. But it's not what it seems. Link here. There are so many story lines here. Amazing. American exceptionalism.

Boeing: it's worse than any American even knows. Link here. Trump himself wants "out." Secretary of Defense: wants DOD to cut annual budget by 8% each year for the next five years. I think it's easy to connect those dots.

aaaaaa


 

The Buzz And The Bakken -- February 20, 2025

Locator: 48590B.

The buzz -- headline without links. It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.  Links, additional details, and updates are provided here.

Must-watch TV tonight: NHL. USA vs Canada.

WMT: tumbles. How worried is Walmart about this? Not at all. We'll explain.

C1: incredible.

Buffett: cuts holdings in bank. Holds AAPL position.

Medicare vs Medicare Advantage. DOGE.

DOA: EPA, California waiver.

Ukraine: British troops on ground? Can't even get there without US air.

Europe: dire straits.

Mexico: cars. More than any American even knows.

LA ports: surge. But it's not what it seems.

Boeing: it's worse than any American even knows. 

Politics:

 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.52.

New wells:

  • Friday, February 21, 2025: 39 for the month, 84 for the quarter, 84 for the year,
    • 40437, conf, Enerplus, Icon 150-94-06B-18H,
    • 39941, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2032-5BH,
    • 38671, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-33 1H,
  • Thursday, February 20 2025: 36 for the month, 81 for the quarter, 81 for the year,
    • None.

RBN Energy: a big propane wholealer's exit raises questions for its peers.

The decision by the U.S.’s largest independent propane wholesaler to exit the business serves as a reminder of the challenges and risks that companies like it face. The move also highlights the fact that some other independent wholesalers believe that by increasing their scale and scope they can compete more effectively with their two classes of competitors: affiliates of big midstream companies and affiliates of propane retailers. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what the latest M&A activity in the propane space reveals. 

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Encore

 Reminder: this RBN story is now fully available -- 

RBN Energythe Permian-focused E%P expands again through M&A. Archived.

We defy you to name an oil and gas producer that’s been on the buying side of more $1-billion-plus M&A than Permian pure play Diamondback Energy, which announced February 18, 2025, that it had agreed to purchase a chunk of Midland Basin assets from Double Eagle IV, one of the Permian’s largest privately held producers, for just under $4.1 billion.
You’d be equally hard-pressed to find a team that’s assembled and flipped more Permian acreage and production than the folks at Double Eagle. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the newly announced Diamondback/Double Eagle IV deal and what it gives Diamondback, the fourth-largest producer in the Permian after ExxonMobil, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum.

Travis Stice, who has served as the company’s CEO for the past 13 years and chairman for the past three, has said that “M&A is as fundamental to Diamondback Energy as the air we breathe.”

No argument there, as evidenced by the E&P’s seemingly insatiable appetite for top-tier Permian acreage and oil-focused production. Midland-based Diamondback started a long string of multibillion-dollar deals in 2017 when it bought assets from Brigham Resources for $2.55 billion. The E&P followed that up in 2018 with agreements to acquire Ajax Resources for $1.25 billion and Energen for a whopping $9.2 billion, thereby increasing Diamondback’s Permian production by 75% and more than doubling its proved reserves. In the months after COVID hit in early 2020, the company bought QEP Resources and Guidon Energy for a total of $3 billion, and in 2022 it shelled out $1.6 billion for FireBird Energy and $1.5 billion for Lario Petroleum.

You’d think that after seven deals totaling more than $19 billion that Diamondback might have finally had its fill. After all, over just a few years it had rocketed to #5 on the list of publicly held Permian producers — and one of the biggest E&Ps in the U.S. for that matter.