Twenty years from now they're gonna say, "we underestimated the Bakken."
Link here.
I find this incredibly interesting. If "push comes to shove" it will be interesting to see how quickly US shale can ramp up; and load tankers to Europe. My hunch: very, very quickly. All those LNG export terminals are looking pretty good right now.
Link here. Beautiful scenery. At least this border is secure.
This is what is looks like five miles south of the crossing: empty.
"Pat, I'm ready to solve the puzzle."
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On Another Note
Can anyone see a situation in which Europe desperately needs oil and liquid natural gas, and all stops are pulled out by the US, the White House, drillers, and shippers to get as much oil and natural gas to Europe as possible, as fast as possible.
I'm convinced a case can be made for that. Ninety-five percent chance it won't happen, but a five percent chance it will?
Very, very few people are still alive who were actually alive during WWII. Those folks can tell us how fast things can change. Remember, that global war lasted four years, and it broke out very, very suddenly, peaking within months before it moved into steady state wartime situation.
There's a reason the White House just "named" Qatar a non-NATO ally of the US. Sources:
The United States is planning to designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally, President Joe Biden has told Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, a move that would formally upgrade the partnership between Doha and Washington.
A reader reminded me the "914s" have been released.
This is from my "links" page:
ISO NE: dinner time; link here.
The Concord Monitor: regularly reports on high cost of electricity / energy in New England; for example this article;
WTI: even at it's already high price, WTI surged 1.75%; up $1.50; trading solidly above $88.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $88.34 | 1/31/2022 | 01/31/2021 | 01/31/2020 | 01/31/2019 | 01/31/2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 32 | 13 | 54 | 65 | 59 |
Two new permits, #38765 - #38766, inclusive:
Active rigs: 33 but one is a SWD rig; did not check closely to see if any rigs listed twice;
Breaking: WTI now well over $88.00
Now, back to regular programming.
More federal money for North Dakota: North Dakota will receive up to $40 million to clean up abandoned oil and gas wells. Whoo-hoo! It appears only seven states will receive more than North Dakota, but not only is ND in the top seven or eight, it is also at the high end of federal money being disbursed. Link when I get it. Arrived in my e-mail from Department of Interior.
From the department:
The Department of the Interior today announced $1.15 billion in funding is available to states from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to create jobs cleaning up orphaned oil and gas wells across the country. This is a key initiative of President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which allocated a total of $4.7 billion to create a new federal program to address orphan wells. Millions of Americans across the country live within a mile of an orphaned oil and gas well.
Orphaned wells are polluting backyards, recreation areas, and public spaces across the country. The historic investments to clean up these hazardous sites will create good-paying, union jobs, catalyze economic growth and revitalization, and reduce dangerous methane leaks.
“President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law is enabling us to confront the legacy pollution and long-standing environmental injustices that for too long have plagued underrepresented communities,” said Secretary Deb Haaland. “We must act with urgency to address the more than one hundred thousand documented orphaned wells across the country and leave no community behind. This is good for our climate, for the health our communities, and for American workers.”
Plugging orphaned wells will also help advance the goals of the U.S. Methane Emissions Reduction Action Plan, as well as the Interagency Working Group on Coal and Power Plant Communities and Economic Revitalization, which focuses on spurring economic revitalization in the hard-hit energy communities.
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Winter Storm Slams Texas
I keep reading all those news stories that a winter storm slammed Texas.
Well, here's the video.
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The Market -- For The Archives
Wow, talk about an afternoon surge. After a slow start this morning, the market is now taking off. I guess mom-and-pop investors are not worried about the Fed raising the rate from 0.00000% to 0.25% or whatever they think it will be.
My favorite chart:
XLNX: wow. I've accumulated XLNX for decades. Today, I just happened to see it jumped $13, up over 7%, now trading about $191. This is still not a 52-week high. I wonder how much of this is due to a short squeeze. I think a lot of folks got burned on this one assuming the merger would not take place, after the Chinese delayed it. AMD is up almost $8.
Oil: "all" oil stocks are up.
Commodities are up: SCCO, FCX
AAPL: after soaring last week, up $12/share (?), AAPL is up another $3 / share today after a slow start.
PLUG: is up $2.76 on a $21 stock. Whoo-hoo!
It's hard to find anything that's trading down. If so, pretty much profit taking after recent jump in price. Even EPD is up a bit. LOL. What's ENB doing? Up nicely. EPD reports tomorrow, February 1, 2022, before market open; forecast, 54 cents EPS; "whisper number" is 57 cents.
Holy mackerel, NVDA is up $13.
SBUX: I've never invested in SBUX and the company if facing a lot of headwinds but I need to diversity out of energy, and I'm seriously thinking of looking at SBUX. I'll wait to see what Jim Cramer has to say this evening. SBUX reports earnings at 5:00 a.m. ET tomorrow morning (February 1, 2022); forecast, 79 cents EPS. The "whisper number" is 82 cents.
ARKK: must be having an incredible day ... let's check ... yup, up 8%.
S&P 500: up 83 points. Remember, under the 10:1 rule, this would equate to an 800 point jump in the Dow today; just saying.
Dow: regardless, the Dow was up a remarkable 400 points. Go back and look at my favorite chart.
I'm posting this for the archives for the grandsons and their mother who will end up managing the portfolio after I die. At 75 years of age, I turn the portfolio over to our younger daughter. The twins will be in first or second grade by then, home schooled, majoring in the "3-R's" with a minor in business and investing.
Prediction: the S&P 500 will hit 4,500 before it hits 4,600.
Note: the above companies fascinate me. I own shares in some but not all. I've been in and out of some of them over the years.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Fast Money:
Mad Money:
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Jason Day And The Early Morning Club
I’m writing this column at 4 a.m., but I need to level with you: It’s nowhere near as romantic as that sounds. I am not sitting in a hotel lobby, tuxedo bow tie unfurled, cigar smoldering in an ashtray, pecking at an old Underwood typewriter after a long night out with movie stars, rock gods and other assorted fabulous people.
The truth is I fell asleep last night right after reading to my kids. I passed out shortly before 9 p.m. with a copy of “Friendship According to Humphrey,” about a class pet hamster trying to adapt to a new frog in the room, resting atop my chest. (It’s a fun read. Humphrey is adorbs.)
I’m awake because over the past two years, I’ve joined a new club: the very, very early morning club. I know a lot of people have lives and jobs that require them to wake up extremely early, but this is a new lifestyle for me. It took two small children and one pandemic that kept us all home to figure out that if I was going to continue to be productive, and write nonsense humor columns like this one, I was going to need to be productive at an uncommon hour, sitting alone in the dark.
I'll expand on this later.
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Book Recommendation
Again, if interested in origin of solar system, earth, fossil fuel, origin of life, this is currently the best new book on the market right now for armchair/amateur biologists, geologists, fossil fuel aficionados.
From the book, pages 145 - 147:
The Permian: why did so much oil accumulate in such a small region of the continent?
To be continued in a future blog.
Breaking: 4.6 earthquake in north central Oklahoma, near the Kansas state line. Not near any of the oil fields as far as I can tell. This will be sorted out later
Now, back to regular programming.
ISO NE: now I know they're reading the blog. LOL. I was posting these graphics more than two years ago. Link here.
By the way, that's an old chart (January 24, 2022) -- NE ISO has burned coal in the past several days suggesting the utilities have run out of coal.
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And, Then There's Always California Hypocrisy
At the link, release date (most recent data): November 4, 2021; next release date, December, 2022. The numbers will change dramatically after the next release. It is noteworthy that Texas is among the top five lowest-cost states despite that "Texas freeze" in 2021.
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Shell Discovery Off Namibia
A bit of hyperbole? This is the headline:
Shell makes oil and gas discovery off Namibia's coast.
The story: Oil supermajor, Shell, has made a huge oil and gas discovery at a closely watched offshore well in the southern African nation of Namibia ...
So, how big was this discovery? Between 250 and 300 million bbls of oil and natural gas equivalent.
"A huge discovery..."
As the reader who sent me this story, if this is a "huge" discovery, how would Zacks describe the Bakken. The reader noted that NOG -- a non-operator that got its start in North Dakota -- has that much oil in the Bakken.
In fact, according to Zacks, this discovery is so "huge," "it is unclear if the discoveries are substantial enough for [Shell] to go ahead with the development of the country's first deepwater field."
The good news: if Namibia grants Shell the permits to drill, it's unlikely a Namibian judge will come back later and vacate the permit. Although, having said that, nationalization is always on the table.
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Driving Faux Environmentalists Nuts
There are stories now being reported that faux environmentalists are furious that oil companies and oil service companies are cashing in on carbon capture and sequestration. LOL.
This will make their heads explode: Schlumberger Tech got the contract for Northern Lights.
Northern Lights:
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California Fossil Fuel Utilities, 1 -- Solar, 0
It would be interesting to know more of the backstory on this one.
One wonders what brought all this on? California's economy is booming; the state has a record surplus in its coffers.
This makes no sense at all considering California's commitment to carbon emissions.
My hunch: they looked at the outyears, 2030 and beyond, and did the math. Wanted to nip a disaster in the bud, as they say.
California is already among the top five most expensive states for electricity. Rooftop solar will make it even worse. California knows this will drive high-energy commercial users out of the state:
It's also possible 90% of Californians who will not "buy into" rooftop solar have started a letter-writing campaign complaining that their solar neighbors are getting a free ride.
First things first, truckers in Saskatchewan headed towards Ottawa. Link here.
Now, back to regular programming.
Shell:
First it changes its focus, then it changes its name, now it completes simplification with single line assimilation. Link here at Rigzone.
The company formerly knowns as Royal Dutch Shell plc is now, simply, Shell.
As of early this morning, still two trading symbols, RDS-A and RDS-B but both appear to be trading at same price. It will probably take awhile for company to make the administrative changes for a new single ticker symbol. One would assume they would drop the "RD" from the RDS ticker.
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To Infinity And Kiri
OPEC Basket Price
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Penzeys
On April 20, 2021, I mentioned that "Penzeys BBQ 3000 is my go-to rub for Cornish hen."
Now this, "the spice company -- Penzeys -- that called Republicans racist begging for gift card purchases after losing customers."
Link here; https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/spice-company-that-called-republicans-racist-begs-for-gift-card-purchases-after-losing-customers.
I assume greater than 50% of their market self-identifies as Republican.
No further comment.
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Amazon Prime
Subscribers need to brace for a $20-increase in annual subscription cost.
Our younger daughter recently sent us a very light, small package from Portland, OR, using USPS. That very light, small package cost $17.91 to ship.
I don't think a $20-increase for an Amazon Prime subscription will break the bank.
In addition, I"m watching a lot more Amazon Prime Video these days. I watch no Apple original programming.
NOG: update. Announces closing of Permian Basin acquisition from Veritas Energy.
Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.
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Meanwhile, Earthstone Energy With Midland Basin Acquisition
One may want to read the history of Earthstone Energy, et al, at this post. Somehow it reaches back to Aubrey McClendon.
Link here. Will acquire the assets of privately held Bighorn Permian Resources located in the Midland Basin
NOG: update. Announces closing of Permian Basin acquisition from Veritas Energy.
Shooting oil in a barrel: Doomberg.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $87.07 | 1/31/2022 | 01/31/2021 | 01/31/2020 | 01/31/2019 | 01/31/2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 31 | 13 | 54 | 65 | 59 |
Monday, January 31, 2022: 55 for the month, 55 for the quarter, 55 for the year
Sunday, January 30, 2022: 53 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 53 for the year
RBN Energy: after MVP setback, is the Appalachia gas forward curve wrong?
There was no shortage of drama in the U.S. natural gas market last week. The February Henry Hub CME/NYMEX contract expired in a blaze of glory after frenzied short-covering led to the largest single-day percentage gain since Henry futures began trading in the 1990s. The Northeast was bracing for a weekend “bomb cyclone,” a particularly gnarly nor’easter that brought frigid temperatures and threatened to disrupt the market just as heating demand spiked. But there was another, more subtle but still seismic event that occurred, one that is likely to reverberate well beyond the near-term horizon. Namely, the Equitrans Midstream-led, 2-Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline — the only major expansion project left for increasing egress out of the Appalachian gas supply basin — lost two key federal permits, all but ensuring that the long-delayed project will miss its latest target in-service date of this summer, and potentially be held back another year, or more. In our Top 10 Prognostications for 2022 blog, #7 predicted more severe capacity constraints and weaker basis differentials for Appalachian gas producers. This is the latest indication that things could get worse — and sooner — than previously expected. In today’s RBN blog, we focus on our latest outlook for Appalachia’s gas takeaway constraints and basis pricing.
For those holding onto a glimmer of hope that the long-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) — a big and important greenfield Appalachia natural gas takeaway project — would finally come to fruition this year, it’s safe to say those dreams were shattered last week. On January 25, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit vacated federal permits from the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management that were needed to complete a 3.5-mile stretch of the mainline through the Jefferson National Forest along the West Virginia-Virginia border. The ruling said the permit approvals were premature — issued before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) environmental assessment — and failed to comply with the Forest Service’s 2012 Planning rule. The decision effectively sends the project back into the review process for the second time since construction began in 2018.
