Nothing About The Bakken -- Urban Living And The ABC's Of Love -- September 27, 2017

I'm in my ramen noodle phase.

My wife and I enjoyed Tampopo. She generally does not watch a movie more than one time. Me? I can watch a movie I like over and over and over. I think I've watched Tampopo half a dozen times since I ordered it from Amazon about six months ago.

Surprisingly, there's another "ramen movie": The Ramen Girl. I want to watch it with my wife, but our schedules never seem to work out that we can watch it together. I've watched the first 15 minutes twice and I don't want to watch the rest of it without watching it with someone else. The movie looks incredible.

So, I'm watching it again tonight -- but just the first 15 minutes. I will save the movie until I can watch it with Mayumi (my wife, half Japanese, half Hispanic). Her Hispanic half is sweet; her Japanese half is ... well, let's just say it's not sweet. LOL.

So, I will watch the first fifteen minutes of this movie and then hope we can finish it together some evening. Right now, she's out in California with her Japanese and her Chinese friends.

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Amazon Fresh

This is really crazy. I like to have extra ink cartridges for my printer in the house in case my printer says I'm out of ink. The other night I replaced my last color and last black/white cartridge, so I went to Amazon.com to order new cartridges.

Wow, they are expensive. About the same price as one can find at Walmart. $35 for combination color and black/white cartridges (two cartridges). It's not worth ordering just one package so I order two: $70.

I place the order and go to "checkout." I'm unable to place the order: Amazon keeps directing me to something called "Amazon Fresh." I don't want "Amazon Fresh." I just want to order my ink cartridges and move on.

But I can't.

Finally, I click on the "Amazon Fresh" button. I'm now asked when I would like to have the cartridges delivered. They can be delivered in two hours. No kidding. All I have to do is click on the button and the cartridges will be here in two hours. Free shipping.

I don't want some guy trying to find my apartment in the middle of the night, so I click the button "8:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. the next morning."

Free shipping.

Amazon shows me a map: my house and the fulfillment center, just a few miles down the road.

This morning, at 9:14 a.m. the cartridges showed up at my doorstep.

Now the weird part: Amazon.com took $5 off the order as a promotion. Wow. I had no choice and yet Amazon.com took $5 off my purchase. What a great company. No wonder the company isn't making a profit.

But then they added a $6-tip for the person delivering the ink cartridges. So, $5 off for the purchase as a promotion and a $6-tip (that I had no control over) -- an extra $1 for free shipping.

I was very, very impressed. I saw the charge for the tip before I clicked on the last button so I had the option of opting out, but for a buck, I wanted to see how this would all work out.

And lo and behold, as noted, the ink cartridges showed up at 9:14 a.m., right in the middle of the two-hour window -- and cash back on the credit card for the order.

The ABC's of Love, Doyle and Debbie

Random Update Of Oasis Cook #19639 In Willow Creek -- September 27, 2017

This is pretty cool. Back on July 18, 2017, I noted that this well was taken off-line 2/17 and was curious if something was going on in the area. There certainly was.

The well:

• 19639, 2,414, Oasis, Cook 5300 42-12H, t9/11; cum 333K 2/17; taken off-line 2/17;

The graphic:

Neighboring wells:

• 30482, 870, Oasis, Cook 5300 12-13 6B, Willow Creek, t2/17; cum 7/17;
• 27352, conf, Oasis, Cook 5300 12-13 7T, Willow Creek; producing
• 27354, conf, Oasis, Cook 5300 12-13 9T, Willow Creek; producing,
• 27353, TA, non-contributory to the "story"
  

• 24707, 1,811, Oasis, Paul S 5300 13-13T, Willow Creek, take off-line 1/17 and back on status as of 6/17 but still not up to full month production; t10/13; cum 149K 7/17;
• 24708, AB/149 (no typo), Oasis, Cook 24-31H, Willow Creek, taken off-line and placed on AB status, t3/13; cum 34K 3/13;

Production profile of neighboring wells (note that two of them are still conf);

27354 (still confidential, but obviously recently fracked):

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2017	17035	11827
6-2017	2822	3988

27352 (still confidential, but obviously recently fracked):

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2017	18236	12272
6-2017	4830	6005

30482 (recently fracked and now on line):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	31485	31450	40140	24642	23886	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	18	13255	13476	27946	14188	12970	462
BAKKEN	5-2017	4	1492	1198	6485	722	722	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	7	5675	5637	5839	855	0	561

Now,  for the production profile of #19639 (recent production):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	5646	5221	15531	5027	4918	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	13	2046	1765	12294	2315	2206	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	8	566	581	409	986	919	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	1984	2106	1721	2815	2555	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	2535	2305	2272	3802	3550	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	30	2597	2766	2090	4739	4739	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	2354	2367	1788	4007	3755	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	2472	2471	1873	3218	2958	0

Eight New Permits -- September 27, 2017

Active rigs:

$52.03→	9/27/2017	09/27/2016	09/27/2015	09/27/2014	09/27/2013
Active Rigs	58	32	71	190	184

One permit renewed:

• Hunt Oil: one Oakland permit in Mountrail County.

Eight new permits:

• Operators: Enerplus (7); Sinclair
• Fields: Heart Butte; Mary
• Comments: Enerplus has permits for a 7-well "spider" pad in Heart Butte, SESW 32-149-92 (see below)

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The graphic for the Enerplus 9-well "spider" pad (originally a 7-well pad was proposed but on October 1, 2018, I noted that it had permits for nine (9) wells:

• 35131, loc, Huntsman,
• 35130, loc, Blackwidow,
• 34068, loc, Spider,
• 34067, loc, Cobweb,
• 34066, loc, Maratus,
• 34065, loc, Tarantula,
• 34064, loc, Trapdoor,
• 34063, loc, Orbweaver,
• 34062, loc, Recluse,

Update On Halcon's Plans To Exit The Williston Basin -- September 27, 2017

I haven't quite figured this one out yet. In a previous post, it was reported that Halcon would be exiting the Williston Basin. Today it is being reported that Halcon has sold all its non-operated assets in Williston buyer to a private buyer.

At Yahoo!Finance!, data points:

• mineral acres, if any, not mentioned
• about 2,000 bopd
• $104 million
• proceeds will be used to pay down debt

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Picture Perfect

The Political Page, T+250 -- September 27, 2017

Pitino Fired

Link here.

Must read. Absolutely incredible how criminal, amoral this whole program seems to have been -- and coming on top of kneeling-gate.

Hall of shame:

• Pitino: thought to be "bullet-proof" -- as much chance of him getting fired as the Pope being excommunicated
• Louisville head basketball coach Rick Pitino has been fired in the wake of the school’s latest scandal
• FBI investigation
• 10 people charged
• corruption and fraud scheme
• illegal payment of a recruit 
• 2016: escort service had been paid by the program to have sex with prospective round-ball players and their family members -- organized by the former director of basketball operatiosn
• Adidas rep named
• others named: from Arizona and USC
• 2009: Pitino involved in extortion battle; sexual relationship; abortion

And then this:

His on court resume—a career record of 416–141 and two NCAA titles, one with Louisville in 2013—has been outstanding, but the background of his coaching career continues to grow murkier.

"...to grow murkier?" Perhaps the media is being too harsh, I bet some will say. These things happen. 

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College Ranking

Speaking of Louisville, how do the colleges/universities rack and stack in the most recent WSJ/Times Higher Education College Rankings? The "top 10" are the same as usual, just rotating among the top ten. But how were the other 490 colleges ranked?

15: University of Southern California (my alma mater, graduate school; white privilege)
25: UCLA (my wife's alma mater)
26: Pomono College (colleague's undergraduate school)
38: Carleton (a mentor's alma mater)
46: University of California, Davis (post-graduate study for me)
56: University of Texas, Austin
153: St Olaf College (I spent one high school summer at St Olaf)
179: University of Arizona (alma mater for older daughter and her husband)
188: Baylor (Texas)
t-198: Rutgers University-Newark (former girlfriend's alma mater)
243: Luther (heard about this college often when growing up)
274: Augustana College (Sioux Falls) (my alma mater, undergraduate)
286: University of California (Santa Cruz) (one month undergraduate experience)
306: Auburn University (memories from my days in the US Air Force)
371: University of Wyoming (I noted that UND, NDSU, SDSU, and SDSU did not rank among the top 500)
437: California Lutheran University (former girlfriend's alma mater)
473: California State University, Long Beach (just saying)
489: California State Polytechnic University, Pomona (just saying)
489: Ohio University (really? this low? barely made the list)
I didn't see it on the list, probably missed it: South Dakota School of Mines and Technology

The Energy And Market Page, T+250 -- September 27, 2017

WTI: slightly above $52 at open. Closed at $52.03. Whoo-hoo.

Market: in early trading, the Dow is barely in the green, but by 11:00 a.m. already had 120 new highs on the NYSE, including: Navistar International; Union Pacific;

• new lows: 11

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WTI: On Sale!

John Kemp: the differential between WTI and Brent will drain the US WTI crude oil inventories.

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Weekly Petroleum Report

The weekly petroleum report, highlights:

• US commercial crude oil inventories: decreased by 1.8 million bbs; now at 471.0 million bbls
• upper half of the average range for this time of year
• total motor gasoline inventories increased 1.1 million bbls; in the upper half of the average range
• distillate fuel product supplies was up by almost 14% -- again, incredible numbers for many consecutive weeks
• refineries operated at 89% of capacity; improved but still way below where they should be

Re-balancing: remains unchanged. At current rate of change in US crude oil inventories, it will take 46 weeks to get back to historical levers.

The EIA will post the graphic tomorrow with the number of days of gasoline supply at current rate of usage.

Week	Date	Drawdown	Storage	Weeks to RB
Week 0	Apr 26, 2017		529.0	180
Week 1	May 3, 2017	0.9	528.0	198
Week 2	May 10, 2017	6	522.0	50
Week 3	May 17, 2017	1.8	520.2	59
Week 4	May 24, 2017	4.4	515.8	51
Week 5	May 31, 2017	6.4	509.9	41
Week 6	June 7, 2017	-3.3	513.2	60
Week 7	June 14, 2017	1.7	511.5	57
Week 8	June 21, 2017	2.5	509.0	62
Week 9	June 28, 2017	-0.2	509.2	71
Week 10	July 6, 2017	6.3	502.9	58
Week 11	July 12, 2017	7.6	495.3	47
Week 12	July 19, 2017	4.7	490.6	43
Week 13	July 26, 2017	7.2	483.4	38
Week 14	August 2, 2017	1.5	481.9	50
Week 15	August 9, 2017	6.5	475.4	35
Week 16	August 16, 2017	8.9	466.5	30
Week 17	August 23, 2017	3.3	463.2	29
Week 18	August 30, 2017	5.4	457.8	27
Week 19	September 7, 2017	-4.6	462.4	32
Week 20	September 13, 2017	-5.9	468.2	39
Week 21	September 20, 2017	-4.6	472.8	46
Week 22	September 27, 2017	1.8	471.0	46

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LEGO

The Lego NASA Apollo Saturn V remains "temporarily out of stock." This is the longest period of time I have ever seen a Lego product "temporarily out of stock."

We've talked about this before.

Random Look At An NP Resources Well In Southwestern North Dakota -- September 27, 2017

Someone asked recently about NP Resources drilling in a relatively-poor Bakken area south of and outside of McKenzie County.

We have our first example since that question was asked.

The well:

• 30724, 634, NP Resources, Beaver Creek State 41-36-2PH, Roosevelt, Three Forks, 35 stages; 5.3 million lbs; some ceramic; t4/17; cum 50K 7/17; 

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2017	30	13098	12968	23432	7891	7891	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	14344	14285	14674	8572	8572	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	16112	15991	43832	7674	7674	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	6416	6213	17775	2889	2889	0

The graphic:

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Let's compare the production from the above NP Resources well -- the first four months -- with the production of the first four to five months of production from older wells in Cabernet - Little Knife - Murphy Creek area, also in the south Bakken but considered a very, very good area. I will purposely find three older wells drilled at a time when costs were much, much greater than they are now (during the boom), and drilled by one of the best operators in the Bakken. The three wells:

19743, 1,002, MRO, Hartman 14-32H, Murphy Creek, t7/11; cum 197K 7/17:

BAKKEN	12-2011	28	4970	4836	2792	2341	1904	271
BAKKEN	11-2011	30	3316	3454	1005	1596	1237	181
BAKKEN	10-2011	31	4519	4536	1527	2190	1742	262
BAKKEN	9-2011	30	6561	6512	2312	2343	1791	372
BAKKEN	8-2011	31	9723	9868	4342	333	0	147
BAKKEN	7-2011	22	11841	11283	3795	6750	0	6618

17468, 878, MRO, Hendricks 34-20H, Murphy Creek, t7/11; cum 163K 7/17:

BAKKEN	12-2011	11	1299	1131	865	351	153	152
BAKKEN	11-2011	30	3203	3353	1765	1550	1087	286
BAKKEN	10-2011	31	3399	3561	1972	1845	1112	547
BAKKEN	9-2011	30	5556	5613	3518	2614	2169	265
BAKKEN	8-2011	31	8429	8242	5657	4241	3937	118
BAKKEN	7-2011	13	6822	6392	2607	3820	3310	433

17693, 225, MRO, Louie Hendricks 24-20H, Murphy Creek, t3/09; cum 202K 7/17:

BAKKEN	8-2009	31	2640	2736	930	1151	1151	0
BAKKEN	7-2009	31	3688	3633	1530	1529	1529	0
BAKKEN	6-2009	26	4056	4058	2270	1701	1701	0
BAKKEN	5-2009	26	2186	2212	1258	766	766	0
BAKKEN	4-2009	27	3977	3974	638	1619	1619	0
BAKKEN	3-2009	19	2389	2023	1005	762	762	0