Is It Time To Pivot? July 20, 2026

Locator: 51211INVESTING. 

Arab Spring: see wiki. The obvious question: compared to 2010 - 2015 (Arab Spring) except for the war in and around Iran, things are much quieter in the Arab world now than they were during Arab Spring. 

Why is the Arab world so quiet now? The chatbot response must be correct, or at least have an element of accuracy but yet I'm not satisfied with the answer. I'm not going to post that response; it's too long. If interested, readers can do their own query. But wow, right now, things appear quiet in the Arab World except for what's going in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Fascinating to read about it now, but I certainly don't understand why that is so. 

My hunch, just out of thin air, a rambling thought -- with the Fed focused on US inflation and the very possibility of the US Fed raising rates; the price of oil remaining higher longer, mostly due to the Iranian War; and the Chinese economy significantly faltering, the likelihood of a recession by next summer, is very much a possibility. I think it will be interesting to see whether central banks can thread the needle: not contribute to a recession while at the same time, tackling inflation.  

On another note, as an investor, I never, never, never thought I would be looking at the oil sector again, but maybe it's time. It's amazing the number of pundits who think the price of oil is likely to fall back to $60. I just don't see it. 

It seems it all goes back to the Chinese economy. And right now, the Chinese economy is not looking so great  

Link here. 

We'll Set This As A Marker For The Archives -- July 20, 2026

Locator: 51210ARCHIVES. 

Tag: Cramer look beyond tech

Update On TSMC's Fabs In Arizona -- July 20, 206

Locator: 51209TSMC. 

Updates

July 28, 2026: link here. This project now up to $14 billion.

Meta Platforms and the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock , on Tuesday announced a venture to develop and operate a data center campus in El Paso, Texas, a project that would cost about $14 billion in development.

The race to build out AI infrastructure has prompted tech giants to turn to debt sales worth tens of billions of dollars or seek external capital from fund managers such as BlackRock due to an unprecedented scale of investment.

Meta said BlackRock-managed funds will take an 80% ownership stake in the venture, with Meta retaining the remaining 20%. A portion of BlackRock’s investment will be financed through $12.5 billion in debt. Meta will also receive a $1 billion distribution to align ownership.

Meta will contribute land and in-progress construction assets worth about $2.3 billion, while BlackRock will make a cash contribution of about $4.9 billion, the company said.

The Facebook-parent earlier said it was building an over $10 billion data center project in El Paso, near the Texas-New Mexico border, among 28 data centers it has in either operation or under construction in the U.S.

Original Post 

I just posted a link to a WSJ article about Meta -- BlackRock -- El Paso and a $12-billion LDC. I didn't like the post because I didn't think I explained what I was thinking well enough. I was trying to articulate the amount of money being spent on all this tech. I just can't get my head around it. 

Just after posting that article, I got this article from a reader -- thank you -- and the link -- again, the amount of money is incomprehensible. I'll leave it there. Look at how this project in Phoenix has grown in just a few years.  I think this has been posted previously from a different source. But it's nice to see it again.

 

Again, in case you missed the link from above, here's the link so you can see the rest of the article: https://www.orionprop.com/topfive/phoenix-mayor-says-tsmcs-265-billion-investment-is-historic-on-multiple-levels/. 

Update On Investment Costs For 1GW LDC, Massive LDCs, Meta, El Paso -- July 20, 2026

Locator: 51208LDCS. 

TAG: LDC Meta Blackrock 2GW 5GW $10 Billion Hyperion $50 Billion  

I've never gotten the feeling that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink misunderstands investing opportunities. 

Before you read the WSJ article today about META's 1GW LDC in El Paso, Texas -- highlights posted below -- read a previously-posted blog --> link here. 

*****************************************
Now, Today's Article 

Link here. 

An incredibly interesting article. Look at that:

The world's largest investment firm, BlackRock,along with its infrastructure and private-credit arms, owns an 80% stake in this Texas LDC. Meta Platforms, which will use the data centers (plural?) owns the other 20%. The complex is expected to have around 1 gigawatt of capacity.  

This is a huge change just from a year ago, it seems. At that time, it seemed an LDC represented a $2 billion investment for 1GW capacity. So, what's going on? According to a chatbot:

  

Four New Permits; Four Permits Renewed -- End-Of-Day Report --- July 20, 2026

Locator: 51207B. 

AAPL: it was a tough Monday. Link here. 

************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.48

Active rigs: 24.

Four new permits, #43131 - #43134, inclusive:

• Operator: Phoenix Operating.
• Field: Ranch Creek (McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• Phoenix Operating has permits for four Leatherman wells, SEW 12-146-99, 
• to be sited 333 FSL and 2015 / 2105 FWL.

Four permits renewed:

• Formentera (2):
• Silver Hill (2): 

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 42205, 246 bopd, Silver Hill Energy, Nebraska 3 158-92-5-29-3MBHX, SWSW 4-158-92, Mountrail County;

 

End-Of-Day Notes --- July 20, 2026

Locator: 51205B.

Methane: remember when we only had ten years to save the earth? I think that was back in 1994 or thereabouts. Link here. 

Polestar won't be sold in the US: link here.

2024: Remember when the current CEO Mary Barra said that EVs would be profitable by 2030 and that the company would phase, by 2035, the ICEs for the vehicles most of us buy. This target was first established in 2021 and reaffirmed in late 2024.

Apple Updates -- New Phones -- Siri -- July 20, 2026

Locator: 51204MARKET.

 

 

Market -- July 20, 2026

Locator: 51204MARKET.

Mideast: continues. 

• two developments:
• sources suggest the leader of Iran has fled Iran; whereabouts either not known or simply not reported;
• Houthis have announced a martime blockade on Saudi Arabia
• analysis: these are both acts of desperation.

Apple: wow, AAPL is down over 2%, has lost $6 / share so far today and yet .... AAPL is well over $300 / share.  

YUM: US government to Taco Bell and. Taylor Farms. Sorry. Never mind.

Cafe Bustelo -- Update -- July 20, 2026

Locator: 51203CAFÉ.

We keep two brands of K-Cups in our house: Starbucks Pike Place and Café Bustelo Espresso Style. 

Gemini: I've never seen so many ads for Cafe Bustelo as I'm seeing now and promotions in stores, like Walmart. Is there something new going on at Cafe Bustelo? 

 

Anticipation -- Sunday Night, July 19, 2026

Locator: 51202B.

S&P: could reach 8,250 from the current 7,500 by year end (2026) -- Ed Yardeni CEO. Generally an optimist. Wiki seems to highlight: that he is most known for: monetary, fiscal policy affecting inflation and bonds. Expected one rate increase in July (didn't happen). No Fed meeting in August. Now, says possible rate hike in September but didn't sound particularly sure about that -- CNBC this morning. Seemed to suggest the new Fed chair is talking the talk but it may be difficult for Warsh to actually make any headway on the inflation front by raising rates. 

LCDs: as other states institute moratoriums on LCDs, Texas presses on: 

WTI: now above $84. Later: early morning, Monday, July 20, 2026 -- $82.37. The strait becomes less relevant every day. 

Cyclosporiasis -- Taylor Farms -- Taco Bell -- update: stories from various sources -- how AI interpreted the stories:

One wonders about Covid-19 and false positives?

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $84.27. Up $1.78; up over 2%.

New wells reporting:

• Tuesday, July 28, 2026: 41 for the month, 41 for the quarter, 394 for the year, 
• 43182, conf, Oasis, Cyclone 5502 11-17 3B,
• 43181, conf, Oasis, Cyclone 5502 11-17 2B,
• Monday, July 27, 2026: 39 for the month, 39 for the quarter, 392 for the year, 
• 42077, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, K&L Hegstad North W 158-92-3-27-MBHX,
• 41538, conf, Devon Energy, Stallion 33-28 6H, 
• Sunday, July 26, 2026: 37 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 390 for the year, 
• None.
• Saturday, July 25, 2026: 37 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 390 for the year,   
• None.

RBN Energy: new pipeline capacity unlocks supply potential for Permian natural gas. Link here. Archived.

Natural gas prices in the Permian spent the first half of the year in the red. Between the beginning of the year and mid-June, cash prices in the basin were above zero only 11 days, most of them during an extreme cold snap in January that caused production freeze-offs. Then, in mid-June, someone — well, Kinder Morgan, to be specific — flipped a switch and now Waha prices are once again in positive territory. The “switch” was a compression expansion on Gulf Coast Express (GCX), which added a desperately needed 570 MMcf/d of takeaway capacity. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the pace of Permian production growth and the timing of two greenfield pipelines that will come online later this year will help determine where Waha prices go from here.

When we wrote about the new infrastructure coming to the Permian in February (see Key to the Highway), we said this year would be “a tale of two halves.” The dashed oval to the left in Figure 1 below highlights the winter freeze‑off spike in Waha cash prices, which was followed by the subsequent slide into negative territory. To the right, the dashed vertical line marks the mid‑June startup of the GCX compression expansion, after which the cash price (yellow line) climbed back above zero and has, so far, mostly settled around $1.50/MMBtu. In other words, the dividing line between the two halves of the year isn’t magic, it’s new pipeline capacity opening up takeaway from the often-constrained Permian. (For more on the Permian Basin, see RBN’s monthly Arrow Model report, which tracks and forecasts shifting gas pipeline flows in Texas and Louisiana, and our weekly NATGAS Permian report, which focuses on key market drivers in the basin.)