Alison's Quick Connects -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50823B. 

Quick connects:

• Data center dilemma: Who decides where they go in North Dakota? -- North Dakota Monitor

• Construction underway on Basin Electric's massive $4 billion power plant -- Bismarck Tribune

• Judge agrees to toss $28M judgment related to DAPL protests -- North Dakota Monitor

• North Dakota oil technology could aid geothermal energy development -- Bismarck Tribune

• WBI Energy's proposed $3.2 billion Bakken East Pipeline draws strong shipper interest -- pgjonline.com

• If Bakken East gas line is built, state should similarly back a line to Grand Forks -- Grand Forks Herald

• Energy and Environmental Research Center forced to cut staff due to funding delays -- Bismarck Tribune

• Could canceled mine project offer roadmap for opponents of new South Dakota oil pipeline -- The Guardian

• What does the Public Service Commission actually regulate in the data center boom? -- Grand Forks Herald

• Summit pipeline rerouted to storage site in Wyoming; North Dakota future unclear -- North Dakota Monitor

• Forest Service dedicated to reclaiming oil sites in Little Missouri Nat'l Grassland -- Dickinson Press

• BLM teeing up another round of oil leasing; 66 parcels across MT and ND headed for auction -- Oil Price

• Opinion: What the history of the Powerline War can tell us about North Dakota's future -- InForum

• North Dakota governor contributes nearly $200,000 to 20 allies, reports show -- North Dakota Monitor

• North Dakota judge Daniel Traynor nominated to serve on Eighth Circuit US Court of Appeals -- KFYR-TV

• Rep. Julie Fedorchak promotes Trump Accounts as investing in kids' futures -- North Dakota Monitor

• Preliminary report offers details in Minnesota plane crash that killed ND Rep. Liz Conmy -- Dickinson Press

• State workforce will shrink by 101 employees after a round of buyouts is completed -- North Dakota Monitor

• Growing number of Republican incumbents aren't seeking party endorsements -- Grand Forks Herald

• Behind the Drought Monitor: Insights from the North Dakota State Climatologist Daryl Ritchison -- KX News

• Tribal law enforcement academy to be located at Camp Grafton in North Dakota -- Bismarck Tribune

• Candidates Alex Balazs and Julie Fedorchak prepare for second primary faceoff -- Dickinson Press

• Governor Armstrong orders half-staff flags for national Peace Officers Memorial Day -- Dickinson Press

• Drivers in northwest North Dakota urged to stay off roads; blowing dirt hampers visibility -- Valley News Live

• Additional $20 million in federal rural health grants announced for North Dakota -- Bismarck Tribune

• No injuries in industrial fire in Williston; evacuations unnecessary due to risk level -- Bismarck Tribune

• Firefighters try to push back on fast-moving fire near Grenora in busy week for northwest ND -- KFYR-TV

• Williston to seek new finance director and auditor as Hercules Cummings submits resignation -- KFYR-TV

• Senator Hoeven working to secure federal support for new facilities at Dickinson Airport -- John Hoeven

• $100K winning Powerball ticket was sold at a Williston gas station over the weekend -- Williston Herald

• Kind Hearts Project to host annual 100-bike giveaway for children at Legacy Square -- Dickinson Press

• Minot City Council is set to finalize its $888 million five-year Capital Improvement Plan -- KX News

• Ray kicks off community complex project including football, baseball fields, plaza, pool -- Williston Herald

• Community leaders and business professionals gathered for State of Region 8 -- Bowman County Pioneer

• Free school meals measure in North Dakota approved for November vote -- North Dakota Monitor

• North Dakota ranked 41st in nation for teacher salaries over 2024-2025 school year -- North Dakota Monitor

• Federal cuts would be 'death knell' for ND tribal colleges, campus presidents say -- North Dakota Monitor

• State superintendent candidate: 'We've got a major decline in our educational system' -- Williston Herald

• Verlinde, Kruger in contested race for school board; Divide County has 3 seats up for grabs -- The Journal

• One write-in candidate was among the two winners in Ray Public School board election -- The Journal

• Watford City High School senior awards night reaches historic scholarship totals -- McKenzie County Farmer

• Union representing teachers in Minot Public Schools ratified a new contract, includes pay raise -- KFYR-TV

• State superintendent wraps up schools tour for the year in Fargo having visited 50 districts -- Williston Herald

• Williston State College cuts ribbon for Jane S. Nelson Healthcare Training Facility -- Williston Herald

• Trump says Iran ceasefire is on 'life support' and proposes gas tax pause as strait stays closed -- KFYR-TV

• Millions of Americans are unknowingly financing electric grid projects before they get any benefit -- Reuters

• Global coal shipments surge as buyers scrambled for fuel amid massively disrupted oil supply -- Oil Price

• OPEC output declined to lowest level since 2000; production fell by 830,000 barrels per day -- Oil Price

• EIA launches new oil, LNG chokepoint datasets amid ongoing disruption from Hormuz crisis -- World Oil

• Recent poll shows close to half of Americans are strongly against AI data centers in their area -- The Hill

• Trump says temporarily suspending federal 18.4 cent/gallon gasoline tax 'a great idea' -- Just The News

• Global oil demand set to exceed supply in the current year amid ongoing Middle East conflict -- Oil Price

• US energy production climbed to fresh all-time high in 2025 for the fourth consecutive year -- E&E News

• Ottawa and Alberta meet to advance plans for a major, new 1 million barrel per day oil pipeline -- Oil Price

• EPA head Zeldin details how tax dollars funded activists and wasteful green energy schemes -- Breitbart

End-Of-Day Report -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50822B.

WTI: $105.60.

Active rigs: 22.

Four new permits, #42942 - #42945, inclusive:

• Operators: Oasis (3); Devon Energy
• Fields: Gros Venture (Burke); Cottonwood (Burke); and, Camp (McKenzie)
• Comments: the new permits:

• 42942, loc, Devon Energy, Lindvig North 14-15-16-17F-5H, Camp, NESE 152-101-14, 2584 FSL and 1162 FEL;
• 42943, loc, Oasis, Isabella 6093 43-36-2BX, Gros Ventre, SWSE 160-93-36, 701 FSL and 2519 FEL;
• 42944, loc, Oasis, Isabella 6093 43-36-3B, Gros Ventre, SWSE 160-93-36, 682 FSL and 2492 FEL;
• 42945, loc, Oasis, Isabella 6093 43-36-4BX, Gros Ventre, SWSE 160-93-36, 663 FSL and 2465FEL;

Sixteen permits canceled:

• SOGC: six Yauch permits; six Forest USA permits; two Horovitz permits; and, two Diamond permits.

Market Today -- Trump's Visit To China -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50821CHINA.

Personal portfolio:

• I expected a loss of as much as 2% when I saw the price of oil and the market indices at the open;
• in fact, my portfolio closed the day down 0.35% which I consider a huge win.

Trump's trip to China:

• at best I thought Trump might break even;
• I assumed Trump was going to come away worse than he did
• nightly news reporting: networks seemed to have trouble coming up with negative stories
• mostly a break-even trip;
• I expected much, much worse.
• in the big scheme of things: a nothing-burger.  

Taiwan:

• if done like Hong Kong, Trump seems to exude a willingness to support Number Eleven
• quick: who's the elected leader of Taiwan? 

BRK's Power Bet -- An Analysis -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50820BRK.

BRK-B this past year: there seems to be a pattern --

Link here. 

When I listened to Greg Abel's comments at the annual meeting just a week or so ago, I had the same thoughts.

MMF -- Flat -- Minimal Change Week Over Week -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50819MMF.

TAG: MMFs MMF 

My favorite chart. 

The US equity markets have been on fire the past couple of weeks. 

Link here. 

Big Stories From The Oil Patch -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50818OIL.

Each day the strait is closed, the more irrelevant the strait becomes.

The big stories:

• North America: 
• improved shale production: Permian, Bakken -- posted earlier in the blog;
• export terminals along the Gulf Coast 
• Canada's TransMountain Pipeline -- see below --  
• Mideast -- pipelines
• UAE:
• The UAE is accelerating construction of a new West-East oil pipeline to Fujairah, scheduled to be operational by 2027, aimed at doubling its crude export capacity to roughly 4 million barrels per day (bpd). This strategic project bypasses the Strait of Hormuz to secure oil exports amid rising regional tensions
• Saudi Arabia: 
• As of April 2026, Saudi Arabia has restored the East-West pipeline (Petroline) to its full capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day (bopd) following attacks. The 1,200 km pipeline serves as a critical alternative route, allowing the kingdom to transport oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and bypass the restricted Strait of Hormuz
• different plays:
• South America: 
• Venezuela: recently covered by RBN Energy:
• Argentina: Vaca Muerta -- Rystad, link here:

Canada's TransMountain Pipeline:

Top Texas Story Today -- Toyota Plans $2 Billion Expansion Project -- It Won't Be EVs -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50817TEXAS.

Huge story. Announced yesterday. Announced literally the same day I posted the fasted growing cities in the US: top five were all in Texas.

Toyota: 

 Meanwhile, Honda, bet on the wrong horse: the comeback won't be easy -- WSJ -- 

Used EVs are now the most affordable car in the US -- The WSJ:

WTI Surges After Trump Talks With Number 11 -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50816B.

China says it will start buying US oil. Traders responded. WTI up $4.27.

*********************************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $105.50.

New wells reporting:

• Sunday, May 17, 2026: 44 for the month, 144 for the quarter, 301 for the year, 
• 41955, conf, Kraken Dwyer EAst 26-35 7H, 
• 41858, conf, Devon Energy, Finn 13-25F XW 1H, 
• 41497, conf, Hess, BW-Wilson-149-99-3625H-6, 
• 41496, conf, Hess, BW-Wilson-149-99-6325H-5, 
• 41495, conf, Hess, BW-Wilson-149-99-3625H-4, 
• 41452, conf, Devon Energy, Wagenman 32-29 6H, 
• Saturday, May 16, 2026: 38 for the month, 138 for the quarter, 295 for the year, 
• 41957, conf, Kraken, McCabe 24-13 5H, 
• 41751, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 1301 2BH, 
• Friday, May 15, 2026: 36 for the month, 136 for the quarter, 293 for the year, 
• 41958, conf, Kraken, McCabe 24-13 6H, 
• 41843, conf, Hunt Oil, Kandiyohi 159-90-5-17H-1, 

RBN Energy: fuel waiver may lower costs, boost gasoline supplies. Link here. Archived. 

By mid-May, the U.S. would typically be a couple of weeks into “summer refining season,” a monthslong period when refineries and refined product terminals are required to supply gasoline with lower Reid vapor pressure (RVP) — and a lot less butane. However, an emergency fuel waiver by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is allowing them to market gasoline with an RVP of up to 10 pounds per square inch (psi) for E10 and E15 gasoline. In addition, the waiver streamlines compliance, making it easier for midstream operators to blend butane up to the RVP limit. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the waiver — temporary but likely to be extended — may well increase summertime gasoline supply and improve refinery and blender economics.

We’ll begin with a two-part warning, not to scare anyone off, but just to prepare you. First, producing and blending gasoline is complicated; second, government regulation of gasoline specifications only adds to that complexity. 

As we said a couple of years ago in Wasting Away in Butane Blendingville, gasoline is among the most complex hydrocarbon products out there, with as many as a dozen specs — each with its own characteristics, such as octane, RVP, distillation points, aromatics, olefins, etc. — that when combined need to meet the exacting standards of regulators and, at the same time, turn as big a financial return as possible. And, to keep things interesting, federal and state regulations ratchet down the allowable RVP levels each spring and ratchet them up in late summer (often to different levels in different markets, and even at different dates).

Because of varying summer temperatures across the country and because certain parts of the U.S. face more serious challenges regarding smog than others, the EPA over the years has designated areas where even stricter summertime limits are enforced. Some states, like California, New York and Illinois — established even lower RVP caps of their own (with the EPA’s blessing) to address specific pollution concerns.

Figure 1. EPA’s Long-Standing Summer Requirements for RVP Levels in Gasoline. Source: EIA