Weekly US Crude Oil Inventory Number Plunges -- API -- June 26, 2018; T+28

API: US crude oil inventory plunges. Forecast for a 2.5 million bbl draw; in fact, the actual draw was 9.228 million bbls. If the EIA number confirms a similar draw tomorrow -- one word, wow. Hold on to your wallet when stopping to fill up with gasoline.

WTI: surges. Up almost 4%. Closes at $70.77.

LLS: closes at $75.66.

Canadian dollar: holds at US 75 cents.

Stunned? Surprised? I don't know but here it is: remember -- this is the US District Court for the District of California -- a BusinessWire story -- the court has issued a ruling dismissing the climate change lawsuits filed against Chevron Corporation by the cities of San Francisco and Oakland. A lot of legalese, but basically a frivolous suit thrown out. 

Permian pipeline project announced: will cross an international border. Oh-oh. From oilprice.com: Kinder Morgan, flush with new cash from Canada -- having sold the Trans Mountain Pipeline project to Mr Trudeau-- announces a new Permian pipeline project. By the way, if I'm not mistaken, a Kinder Morgan subsidiary may have sold the project to Canada, but the company will still get first shot at the contract to build it. What a hoot. If built, Canada will eventually sell it back to Kinder Morgan, no doubt. Now, back to the linked article:

• Kinder Morgan will team up with Apache Corp and a Blackstone subsidiary
  
• a US$2-billion, 2-billion-cf gas pipeline project from the Waha area to the Gulf Coast and to Mexico
• will be interesting to see if the new Mexican president will "buy into this" project with all the animosity between the two countries
• scheduled to begin operations in 2020
• the article suggests that the Permian play is an oil-dominated play (I tend to disagree; makes me wonder about the writer's credentials)
• this is KMI's second such project in the Permian
• two months ago KMI started construction of the Gulf Coast Express Project
• US$1.75 billion; 1.98 billion cubic feet of natural gas from the Permian to Agua Dulce in Tex
• should be operational in late 2019
• already fully subscribed for the long term

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Screen Shot Of The Day

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Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?

First it was the Permian. Then the Gulf of Mexico. Now it's Norway that is setting new production and discovery records.

From oilprice.com: Norway's oil discoveries on track for best year since 2010. A nice reminder that Statoil is now Equinor. From the linked article:

[C]ompanies [exploring on the Norwegian Continental Shelf] are on track to find nearly 1 billion barrels of oil equivalents this year.

These calculations show that the resources found per well could reach their highest since 2010—the year in which the giant Johan Sverdrup oil field was discovered in the North Sea with resources estimated at between 2.1 billion and 3.1 billion barrels of oil equivalents.

Johan Sverdrup—with production start planned for late 2019—will be one of the most important industrial projects in Norway in the next 50 years and will be the main contributor to Norway’s rising oil production until 2023.

Peak oil? What peak oil?

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Peak Natural Gas? Nope, Not Yet

 We should see the official EIA data tomorrow. From SeekingAlpha today:

North Dakota's policy / guidance regarding flaring at this site. It may show up on your desktop as a pdf.

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Peak Water

Keeping to its announced schedule, the US Army Corps of Engineers is releasing 60,000 cubic feet per second from the Garrison Dam in an effort to low flood waters in the Bakken. Today's report:

Apparently Someone Missed The Three-Day Forecast -- June 21, 2018; Long-Term Forecast -- Arctic Sea Ice Volume Growing At Alarming Rates

Updates

June 27, 2018: Arctic Sea almost completely frozen over. It's summer in the northern hemisphere. Source here.

Original Post 

Pardon the interruption. I was going to post this "growing ice" story at the bottom of this post but in certain respects it's more important than the Garrison story.

Huge correction: a huge "thank you" to a reader. I posted this as an "Antarctic" story originally -- no wonder I was confused. It's my understanding that the Antarctic is declining a bit this year, so when I saw the story below, I was confused. Then a reader noted that this was an article on the Arctic and not the Antarctic. It's been corrected.  

I've been following the Antarctic/Arctic ice story this year closer than usual. We're getting a lot of conflicting information -- apparently it depends which source one uses to follow the Antarctic/Arctic ice volume. This story and the graphic below pertains to the Arctic.

This is from the recognized best source -- the DMI -- the Danish Meteorological Institute. In addition to the graphic, there is an explanation why the story is so confusing this year -- lots of "fake news."

The blackest line (on the chart below) shows current Arctic sea-ice volume. Note that it is greater than in 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and is on track to break the 2004 to 2014 mean.

“Actually the current news should not be that there is less sea-ice, but more,” says ready Caleb Shaw. “How much more? The DMI “volume” graph suggests there is 4500 km³ more ice this year than last year. But the media? Crickets.”

Crickets.

The graphic:

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Back to the Bakken

 
Three days ago, it was reported that the US Army Corps of Engineers would be increasing the Garrison Dam release from the usual 44,000 cfs to 52,000 cfs.

We know that the earth is going to be 0.2 degrees warmer a hundred years from now but apparently we all missed the forecast for more rain.

This from The Bismarck Tribune:

Operations manager Todd Lindquist confirmed Wednesday evening that water releases from Garrison Dam will be increased again from 52,000 cubic feet per second, equal to 388,987 gallons per second, to 60,000 cfs by Saturday. On Wednesday, the flows had reached 48,700 cfs, according to a daily report by the corps.

Just on Monday, the levels were expected to reach the 12-foot stage overnight near Bismarck, but now those water levels will reach 13 feet by Saturday, Lindquist said. 

“The increased flows from the Garrison Dam represent a real concern for downstream communities,” said Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., on Wednesday. “We need to ensure the entire river system is being managed in a way that prevents an unexpected rise in river levels, that includes releases from Garrison Dam as well as from dams further downstream."

And this from MyNDNow:

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers today made it official today: Garrison Dam water releases will increase to 60,000 cfs by Friday.

In a statement issued this morning, the Corps' Missouri River Basin Water Management Division said releases will be stepped up from 52,000 cfs to 60,000 cfs over the next three days.

The Garrison reservoir is currently at 1851.6 feet. It is expected to peak near 1852.4 feet in the next two weeks as runoff from the remaining mountain snow pack tapers off.

The 60,000 cfs release rate is expected to continue into mid-July.

The increased release means the river stage near Bismarck will rise from 11.5 feet to 13 feet.

Flood stage at Bismarck is 14.5 feet.

Garrison releases are being increased due to recent rains in the area from Fort Peck to Garrison.

“Widespread rains across much of the Missouri River Basin have increased inflows into the System dams and have also increased flows on tributaries downstream of the System,” said John Remus, Chief of the Missouri River Basin Water Management Division.

One can't make this stuff up.  

And then more, from Don. Thank you. This is from MyNDNow.com. 

The rising levels of the Missouri River. The water level has raised concern as the Army Corps of Engineers continues to release more water from the Garrison Dam. For a lot of North Dakotans, it's creating fear of a repeat of the 2011 flood.

Our Malique Rankin has been researching water releases from the Army Corp.
She compares and breaks down for us how those numbers look in 2018, in comparison to 2011.

During the 2011 flood, on May 30th, water was released from the dam at 85,000 CFS.

To put that in perspective, that's 25,000 CFS more than the rate we are expected to hit this weekend. In 2011, releases hit a high on June 17th, at 150,000 cubic feet per second. Releases were rising on a near daily basis for weeks in June. 

There is a tag for the 2011 flood at the bottom of the blog.