Huge Jump In Production After Neighboring Well, Different Formation Fracked -- January 28, 2017

Updates

January 29, 2017: I received this comment after posting the note below:

I watch the Bakken more than you and I worked for Hess 45 years ago. I can tell you without any reservations that a well shut in for any significant time will display an increase in production. The amount of increase is based on duration of being shut in.

You can see the original comment at this post; it's the first comment there. 

For those who have been following the blog know the background story to this, so I won't go through it again.  I address the issue in more depth at "FAQs", question #81.

Bottom line is this: folks who understand oil much better than I do; who have followed the oil industry longer than I have; who have often worked in the oil industry; who have written me on this issue, all agree that any increase seen in production after a neighboring well is fracked is due to simply to increased pressure that has built up while the well was shut-in or taken off-line to protect it while the neighboring well was fracked.

For readers: I would listen to the folks who understand the Bakken much better than I; who have followed the oil industry long than I have; who have often worked in the oil industry.

I think it's a fascinating phenomenon, production jumping from 9,350 boe/month to 32,000 boe/month after being shut in for three months. That data point alone begs the next question. Actually that raises several questions. Perhaps another day.

Original Post

Observation only; no comment. 

Check out the production profile for this well drilled/completed back in 2012. Note that it was off-line for about four months back in late summer/autumn, 2016:

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	18890	18619	3905	60345	52280	8005
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	22710	22443	6011	54512	45465	8988
BAKKEN	10-2016	21	19472	19607	7581	33363	17446	15876
BAKKEN	9-2016	1	1493	1077	998	2356	174	2180
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	8	1543	1629	386	3718	3560	144
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	6674	6624	1878	16056	15996	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	11	2500	2619	904	4282	3537	728
BAKKEN	4-2016	24	4763	4642	1266	14040	13228	764
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	6618	6860	1650	18814	18542	210
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	7237	7278	1665	18816	18758	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	8287	7981	2027	22133	21630	441

 
A neighboring / new well was fracked late summer/autumn, 2016, API: 33-053-06747-00-00, fracked 9/17-23/2015; 2.9 million gallons water; total mass, 19% proppant;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	23163	23797	6210	77575	77406	58
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	35844	36084	10758	89424	87090	2217
BAKKEN	9-2016	4	5464	4368	2234	9309	9275	3
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	13	10524	10759	1940	46534	46414	71
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	29145	29290	6278	112794	112636	48
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	34739	34823	7064	111921	108678	3136
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	37617	37083	4467	122637	121577	960
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	44583	44923	5288	141867	140859	903
BAKKEN	2-2016	24	43519	43447	9698	108313	108095	142
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	54350	54271	10297	134072	132061	1922
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	63293	63835	15005	152601	147947	4556
BAKKEN	11-2015	15	35158	34953	11139	63018	49687	13271
BAKKEN	10-2015	14	17528	16796	13243	40796	30295	10445

The earlier well:

• 22361, 4,971, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4-3H, a middle Bakken well, t12/12; cum 499K 11/16;

The more recent neighboring well, fracked mid-September, 2015:

• 30774, 1,844, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-5TFH; a Three Forks well;

*******************************************

Another well in the immediate area did not show any increase in production, except perhaps the first full month coming back on-line; it was also off-line about 2.5 months:

• 30776, 1,345, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, a Three Forks, t10/15; cum 235K 11/16;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	11187	11493	3798	52165	52051	39
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	17313	16853	6581	60133	58564	1491
BAKKEN	9-2016	1	348	401	180	825	822	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	14	5354	5439	1250	32961	32876	50
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	12849	12917	3356	76260	76154	32
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	15508	15542	3656	84073	81636	2356
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	16616	16388	3558	73073	72441	572
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	21449	21670	4070	78193	77637	498
BAKKEN	2-2016	24	25532	25529	4190	70867	70724	93

*****************************************
Disclaimer: the NDIC map was hard to read due to all the horizontals; there may be errors. In addition, the narrative was done quickly and there are likely to be factual and typographical errors. Again, no conclusions/analyses are being drawn; this is simply being posted as an observation.

Huge CLR Well Back On Status -- January 28, 2017

Back on-line:

• 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, s1/11; t9/11; AL; cum 1.507 million bbls 11/16; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs; middle Bakken; runs south; 4 section spacing; this is an incredible well; still 19,000 bbls in October, 2015; off-line all of 8/16; back on-line; sundry form says valve on LACT line was cracked open; small oil spill; resolved;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	29	10539	10689	355	11311	11096	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	11462	11484	315	12258	12010	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	19	8745	8486	137	8366	8217	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	237	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	30	10534	10558	350	11332	10035	1065
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	11354	11279	440	12596	8945	3412
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	12067	11991	479	14115	13656	212
BAKKEN	4-2016	27	10189	10128	528	11146	10973	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	22	7488	7556	378	8345	8035	148
BAKKEN	2-2016	28	14342	14489	508	17102	14948	1937
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	16387	16135	573	17603	14354	3001

Re-Completed QEP Well With New Frack Data -- January 28, 2017

QEP re-completed this well (reported previously). API: 33-053-05828. Now with data for second frack.

• 28168, 649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, t12/14; recomplete, summer, 2015, cum 24K 11/16;  

FracFocus confirms:

• original frack: 10/6-8/2014; 1.7 million gallons of water; total mass, 14% sand;
• new frack: 9/18-21/2015; 2.2 million gallons of water; total mass, 12% sand;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	3560	3591	3106	5127	5110	17
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	4817	4720	4588	7070	6700	370
BAKKEN	9-2016	11	2188	2138	2332	3076	2796	280
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	1	153	151	345	200	190	9
BAKKEN	12-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	0	0	57	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	23	5513	5456	7394	6708	4776	1932
BAKKEN	9-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	0	0	12	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	2	1263	1251	12	1394	975	411
BAKKEN	6-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	0	0	16	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	14	1102	1126	940	1379	0	1367
BAKKEN	12-2014	22	3393	3353	2161	3087	0	3055
BAKKEN	11-2014	0	0	22	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	19	1634	1612	1324	308	0	298

Statoil's Skarston Wells In Banks Oil Field All Seem To Be Back On-Line -- January 28, 2017

Updates

December 19, 2018: first / oldest Skarston well with huge jump in production; not re-fracked.
 
From an earlier post:

From July 15, 2016: the 8-well Skarston pad plus the oldest ninth Skarston well in immediate area. It sounds like Statoil asked for a waiver for delayed production until 4/16. Check back in two to three months (9/16) to see if all wells back on status. Mostly curious if #21664 comes back on status. Reader has asked me to keep track of these wells; reader is curious if/when they come back on status.

Original Post

January 28, 2017: #21664 appears to be back on status as of 10/16; some production 10/16 and 11/16. It appears that all Skarston well at the link were back on status, autumn, 2016. These are some incredible wells. If I remember, I will come back and provide production profiles for some of these wells.

The Skarston wells are tracked here.

For example:

• 25858, 5,010 (with natural gas, about 6,553 boe/d), Statoil, Skarston 1-12 5H, Banks, 41 stages, 9.2 million lbs, F, t3/16; cum 213K 11/16;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	21774	22100	9156	38671	32791	4393
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	26481	26940	12460	49782	38024	10044
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	16282	16167	7687	26308	15100	10484
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	39377	38891	17800	69921	64475	2802
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	30634	31509	18737	51855	49147	678
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	37691	37667	21588	59468	56526	446
BAKKEN	5-2016	20	29010	27753	22220	41294	35571	4093
BAKKEN	4-2016	0	0	489	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	11743	11254	8749	6772	5568	940

Bureaucracy-101: January 28, 2017

The US agency that regulates pipelines: FERC. Data points:

• composed of five presidential-appointed / Senate confirmed commissioners
• all positions not always filled; currently only three commissioners
• a quorum (three commissioners) is needed to conduct business
• President Trump elevated a "junior" commissioner to head the agency
• this action by Trump, apparently, miffed the "senior" commissioner who was passed over
• the "senior" commissioner -- being miffed, tendered his/her resignation
• FERC will have two commissioners for most of 2017
• with only two commissioners, the FERC cannot conduct business (they need three members for a quorum)

Currently, the three commissioners: two women and a man.

Guess whether Trump appointed a woman or the male to be the head of the agency?

Cap And Trade: Alaska, California, Forests, Coal -- January 28, 2017

I may have this wrong, but this is how I read this story from Penn Energy:

Alaska Aleut, Eskimo, and Indian shareholders

• Chugach Alaska Corporation
• Alaskan's Prince William Sound
• natives rely on commercial fisheries and a subsistence lifestyle
• want to protect 115,000 acres of its forested land from development and coal acreage from development

Meanwhile, California has strict "cap and trade" laws

• California CO2 emitters will "buy" ("protect") that Native American forested land from developement
• CO2 emitters will purchase "credits" from the Chugach Alaska Corporation
• terms are confidential 
• the agreement will also buy/sell coal rights on 62,000 acres on behalf of New Forests, a sustainable forestry investment firm; forests to Nature Conservancy and Native Conservancy land trust; coal will not be developed
• of the land being protected, the forest and the coal field overlap on 11,000 acres

Precedent / Future

• for forests, this is not an unusual move
• other states protecting forests: Michigan, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, Arizona
• other Alaska Native corporations pursuing similar projects
• the "coal" angle is setting a new precedent

Random Update: CLR's Bridger - Bonneville Wells In Rattlesnake Point: One Older Bridge Well Off-Line -- Getting Ready To Frack In The Area Or Other Reasons? -- January 27, 2017

I track CLR's Bridger / Bonneville wells here.

Last update was early December, 2016.

I am waiting for three B-B wells to be fracked; they remain SI/NC.

I am tracking three neighboring wells:

• the next data point to watch will be the production profile of #17089 when #31846 is fracked
• the next data point to watch will be the production profile of #29552 when #31847 is fracked
• the next data point to watch will be the production profile of #29554 when #31845 is fracked

Of those three (17089, 29552, and 29554)  one has been taken off-line:

• 17089, 400, CLR, Bridger 44-14H, t4/08; cum 139K 11/16;

Was this well taken off-line in anticipation of fracking neighboring wells, or might there be another reason. The file reports not are not helpful. 

Recent production profile for #17089:

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	6	335	644	87	433	66	367
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	2106	2220	602	2532	159	2373
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	2319	2231	677	2778	34	2744
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	2141	2021	605	2542	247	2295
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	2076	2036	667	2494	16	2478
BAKKEN	2-2016	26	2085	2201	935	2472	34	2438
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	2849	2922	1090	3370	37	3333

Stuck At 38 -- January 28, 2017

Active rigs:

	1/28/2017	01/28/2016	01/28/2015	01/28/2014	01/28/2013
Active Rigs	38	46	148	191	190

Note of thanks: a big "thank you" to readers for not sending me e-mail or comments about typographical errors. There have been more than the usual number of typographical errors this past week. I will eventually get to most of them. If someone sees a major factual gaffe, or an "alternative fact" that simply seems wrong, please let me know.

Update On North Dakota's $2 Billion Fertilizer Plant -- January 28, 2017

Data points from The Grand Forks Herald:

• Northern Plains Nitrogen fertilizer plant
• Grand Forks, ND
• $2 billion
• path unclear
• "seed money" in place
• project first announced in 2013
• had hoped to have it up and running sometime this year
• low commodity prices driving farmers away from corn and wheat (use nitrogen)
• farmers moving to soybeans (don't use nitrogen)
• promoters remain optimistic
• other suppliers too far away: Iowa and Mexico

Maybe Mexico is a bit far, but Iowa? No, not really. Except you have to go through Minnesota on Warren's trains.

Having said that, this is the kind of project noveau riche Bakken mineral owners ( The Millionaires' Club) and the ND State Bank of North Dakota should support. 

South Dakota, For Raising A Family, Ranked #1 For "Family Fun" -- January 28, 2017

The link is here.

North Dakota: #1 State To Raise A Family; South Dakota Ranked #1 In "Family Fun" -- January 28, 2017

I assume the poll / study was commissioned by the North Dakota State Tourism Board and the American Petroleum Institute, funded by Oasis, Continental Resources, Halcon, et al, looking for a gazillion workers that will be needed over the next few decades, but here it is:

North Dakota was ranked #1 overall.

But this is the best part, look at the categories and North Dakota's ranking:

• family fun: 13 -- truly beyond the pale. I cannot imagine the "family fun" in ND being this high -- #13; but then, SOUTH DAKOTA was ranked #1 for family 1 -- I assume buffalo riding and the STURGIS MOTORCYCLE RALLY put the state #1;
• health and safety: 7 (if we keep the kids off the oil rigs, ND's ranking will improve)
• education and child care: 7 (about right, but most surprising, perennial #1 Iowa dropped to #13; #1 this year is New Jersey and #2 is Vermont)
• affordability:   6 (had it not been for the Bakken, ND would have ranked higher)
• socioeconomics: 2 ("everybody is the same")

That South Dakota rating for "family fun" is so off the chart, it deserves a stand-alone post. 

The Entire State Of California -- North And South -- Setting Rain/Snow Records -- January 28, 2017

Two global warming links today:

• record snowfall in northern California -- state of emergency declared
• record snowfall in southern California 

Data points from those two articles:

• Squaw Valley, CA: more than 8 feet of snow fell in five days
• Mammoth Mountain Ski Area, CA: more snow has fallen this January than any other month in the resort's recorded history -- that's any month, not just January, and the month is not yet over; as of January 24, 2017, 246 inches (20.5 feet) had fallen
• Mammoth Mountain: previous monthly record -- 209 inches set in December 2010
• Tahoe City, CA; snowiest January since 1952; again, the month is not over; 135 inches for the month, so far
• there is so much snow on the Sierra Nevada that some ski lifts had to close; chairs were buried
• a series of storms  have dumped more than 300% of normal January precipitation to most of the state

One wonders if Algore will change his slide presentation to reflect how the warmists so successfully predicted all of this.

By the way, some readers my have noted that I moved "global warming" links at the sidebar farther down. I am trying to gradually move away from posts on "global warming" -- Trump has just kept me too busy. So, a big "thank you" to a reader alerting me to these snow stories, and I assume the Kennedys were happy to see the notes, always looking for places to show their grandchildren what snow looks like.