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Saturday, January 28, 2017

Huge Jump In Production After Neighboring Well, Different Formation Fracked -- January 28, 2017

Updates

January 29, 2017: I received this comment after posting the note below:
I watch the Bakken more than you and I worked for Hess 45 years ago. I can tell you without any reservations that a well shut in for any significant time will display an increase in production. The amount of increase is based on duration of being shut in.
You can see the original comment at this post; it's the first comment there. 

For those who have been following the blog know the background story to this, so I won't go through it again.  I address the issue in more depth at "FAQs", question #81.

Bottom line is this: folks who understand oil much better than I do; who have followed the oil industry longer than I have; who have often worked in the oil industry; who have written me on this issue, all agree that any increase seen in production after a neighboring well is fracked is due to simply to increased pressure that has built up while the well was shut-in or taken off-line to protect it while the neighboring well was fracked.

For readers: I would listen to the folks who understand the Bakken much better than I; who have followed the oil industry long than I have; who have often worked in the oil industry.

I think it's a fascinating phenomenon, production jumping from 9,350 boe/month to 32,000 boe/month after being shut in for three months. That data point alone begs the next question. Actually that raises several questions. Perhaps another day.

Original Post
Observation only; no comment

Check out the production profile for this well drilled/completed back in 2012. Note that it was off-line for about four months back in late summer/autumn, 2016:

Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2016311889018619390560345522808005
BAKKEN11-2016302271022443601154512454658988
BAKKEN10-20162119472196077581333631744615876
BAKKEN9-201611493107799823561742180
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-201681543162938637183560144
BAKKEN6-20163066746624187816056159960
BAKKEN5-2016112500261990442823537728
BAKKEN4-2016244763464212661404013228764
BAKKEN3-2016316618686016501881418542210
BAKKEN2-20162972377278166518816187580
BAKKEN1-2016318287798120272213321630441
 
A neighboring / new well was fracked late summer/autumn, 2016, API: 33-053-06747-00-00, fracked 9/17-23/2015; 2.9 million gallons water; total mass, 19% proppant;

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20163023163237976210775757740658
BAKKEN10-20163135844360841075889424870902217
BAKKEN9-20164546443682234930992753
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20161310524107591940465344641471
BAKKEN6-2016302914529290627811279411263648
BAKKEN5-201631347393482370641119211086783136
BAKKEN4-20163037617370834467122637121577960
BAKKEN3-20163144583449235288141867140859903
BAKKEN2-20162443519434479698108313108095142
BAKKEN1-2016315435054271102971340721320611922
BAKKEN12-2015316329363835150051526011479474556
BAKKEN11-201515351583495311139630184968713271
BAKKEN10-201514175281679613243407963029510445

The earlier well:
  • 22361, 4,971, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4-3H, a middle Bakken well, t12/12; cum 499K 11/16;
The more recent neighboring well, fracked mid-September, 2015:
  • 30774, 1,844, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-5TFH; a Three Forks well;
*******************************************

Another well in the immediate area did not show any increase in production, except perhaps the first full month coming back on-line; it was also off-line about 2.5 months:
  • 30776, 1,345, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, a Three Forks, t10/15; cum 235K 11/16;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20163011187114933798521655205139
BAKKEN10-2016311731316853658160133585641491
BAKKEN9-201613484011808258220
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-201614535454391250329613287650
BAKKEN6-20163012849129173356762607615432
BAKKEN5-2016311550815542365684073816362356
BAKKEN4-201630166161638835587307372441572
BAKKEN3-201631214492167040707819377637498
BAKKEN2-20162425532255294190708677072493

*****************************************

Disclaimer: the NDIC map was hard to read due to all the horizontals; there may be errors. In addition, the narrative was done quickly and there are likely to be factual and typographical errors. Again, no conclusions/analyses are being drawn; this is simply being posted as an observation.

Huge CLR Well Back On Status -- January 28, 2017

Back on-line:
  • 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, s1/11; t9/11; AL; cum 1.507 million bbls 11/16; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs; middle Bakken; runs south; 4 section spacing; this is an incredible well; still 19,000 bbls in October, 2015; off-line all of 8/16; back on-line; sundry form says valve on LACT line was cracked open; small oil spill; resolved;
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-201629105391068935511311110960
BAKKEN10-201631114621148431512258120100
BAKKEN9-20161987458486137836682170
BAKKEN8-2016002370000
BAKKEN7-201630105341055835011332100351065
BAKKEN6-20163011354112794401259689453412
BAKKEN5-20163112067119914791411513656212
BAKKEN4-201627101891012852811146109730
BAKKEN3-2016227488755637883458035148
BAKKEN2-201628143421448950817102149481937
BAKKEN1-201631163871613557317603143543001

Re-Completed QEP Well With New Frack Data -- January 28, 2017

QEP re-completed this well (reported previously). API: 33-053-05828. Now with data for second frack.
  • 28168, 649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, t12/14; recomplete, summer, 2015, cum 24K 11/16;  
FracFocus confirms:
  • original frack: 10/6-8/2014; 1.7 million gallons of water; total mass, 14% sand;
  • new frack: 9/18-21/2015; 2.2 million gallons of water; total mass, 12% sand;
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2016303560359131065127511017
BAKKEN10-20163148174720458870706700370
BAKKEN9-20161121882138233230762796280
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-20160020000
BAKKEN1-201611531513452001909
BAKKEN12-20150000000
BAKKEN11-201500570000
BAKKEN10-201523551354567394670847761932
BAKKEN9-20150000000
BAKKEN8-201500120000
BAKKEN7-2015212631251121394975411
BAKKEN6-20150000000
BAKKEN5-20150000000
BAKKEN4-20150000000
BAKKEN3-20150000000
BAKKEN2-201500160000
BAKKEN1-20151411021126940137901367
BAKKEN12-201422339333532161308703055
BAKKEN11-201400220000
BAKKEN10-2014191634161213243080298

Statoil's Skarston Wells In Banks Oil Field All Seem To Be Back On-Line -- January 28, 2017

Updates

December 19, 2018: first / oldest Skarston well with huge jump in production; not re-fracked.
 
From an earlier post:
From July 15, 2016: the 8-well Skarston pad plus the oldest ninth Skarston well in immediate area. It sounds like Statoil asked for a waiver for delayed production until 4/16. Check back in two to three months (9/16) to see if all wells back on status. Mostly curious if #21664 comes back on status. Reader has asked me to keep track of these wells; reader is curious if/when they come back on status.
Original Post

January 28, 2017: #21664 appears to be back on status as of 10/16; some production 10/16 and 11/16. It appears that all Skarston well at the link were back on status, autumn, 2016. These are some incredible wells. If I remember, I will come back and provide production profiles for some of these wells.

The Skarston wells are tracked here.

For example:
  • 25858, 5,010 (with natural gas, about 6,553 boe/d), Statoil, Skarston 1-12 5H, Banks, 41 stages, 9.2 million lbs, F, t3/16; cum 213K 11/16;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2016302177422100915638671327914393
BAKKEN10-201631264812694012460497823802410044
BAKKEN9-20163016282161677687263081510010484
BAKKEN8-20163139377388911780069921644752802
BAKKEN7-2016313063431509187375185549147678
BAKKEN6-2016303769137667215885946856526446
BAKKEN5-20162029010277532222041294355714093
BAKKEN4-2016004890000
BAKKEN3-2016311174311254874967725568940

Bureaucracy-101: January 28, 2017

The US agency that regulates pipelines: FERC. Data points:
  • composed of five presidential-appointed / Senate confirmed commissioners
  • all positions not always filled; currently only three commissioners
  • a quorum (three commissioners) is needed to conduct business
  • President Trump elevated a "junior" commissioner to head the agency
  • this action by Trump, apparently, miffed the "senior" commissioner who was passed over
  • the "senior" commissioner -- being miffed, tendered his/her resignation
  • FERC will have two commissioners for most of 2017
  • with only two commissioners, the FERC cannot conduct business (they need three members for a quorum)
Currently, the three commissioners: two women and a man.

Guess whether Trump appointed a woman or the male to be the head of the agency?

Cap And Trade: Alaska, California, Forests, Coal -- January 28, 2017

I may have this wrong, but this is how I read this story from Penn Energy:

Alaska Aleut, Eskimo, and Indian shareholders
  • Chugach Alaska Corporation
  • Alaskan's Prince William Sound
  • natives rely on commercial fisheries and a subsistence lifestyle
  • want to protect 115,000 acres of its forested land from development and coal acreage from development
Meanwhile, California has strict "cap and trade" laws
  • California CO2 emitters will "buy" ("protect") that Native American forested land from developement
  • CO2 emitters will purchase "credits" from the Chugach Alaska Corporation
  • terms are confidential 
  • the agreement will also buy/sell coal rights on 62,000 acres on behalf of New Forests, a sustainable forestry investment firm; forests to Nature Conservancy and Native Conservancy land trust; coal will not be developed
  • of the land being protected, the forest and the coal field overlap on 11,000 acres
Precedent / Future
  • for forests, this is not an unusual move
    • other states protecting forests: Michigan, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, Arizona
    • other Alaska Native corporations pursuing similar projects
  • the "coal" angle is setting a new precedent

Random Update: CLR's Bridger - Bonneville Wells In Rattlesnake Point: One Older Bridge Well Off-Line -- Getting Ready To Frack In The Area Or Other Reasons? -- January 27, 2017

I track CLR's Bridger / Bonneville wells here.

Last update was early December, 2016.

I am waiting for three B-B wells to be fracked; they remain SI/NC.

I am tracking three neighboring wells:
  • the next data point to watch will be the production profile of #17089 when #31846 is fracked
  • the next data point to watch will be the production profile of #29552 when #31847 is fracked
  • the next data point to watch will be the production profile of #29554 when #31845 is fracked
Of those three (17089, 29552, and 29554)  one has been taken off-line:
  • 17089, 400, CLR, Bridger 44-14H, t4/08; cum 139K 11/16;
Was this well taken off-line in anticipation of fracking neighboring wells, or might there be another reason. The file reports not are not helpful. 

Recent production profile for #17089:

Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20160000000
BAKKEN10-20160000000
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-201663356448743366367
BAKKEN6-2016302106222060225321592373
BAKKEN5-201631231922316772778342744
BAKKEN4-2016302141202160525422472295
BAKKEN3-201631207620366672494162478
BAKKEN2-201626208522019352472342438
BAKKEN1-2016312849292210903370373333

Stuck At 38 -- January 28, 2017

Active rigs:


1/28/201701/28/201601/28/201501/28/201401/28/2013
Active Rigs3846148191190

Note of thanks: a big "thank you" to readers for not sending me e-mail or comments about typographical errors. There have been more than the usual number of typographical errors this past week. I will eventually get to most of them. If someone sees a major factual gaffe, or an "alternative fact" that simply seems wrong, please let me know.

Update On North Dakota's $2 Billion Fertilizer Plant -- January 28, 2017

Data points from The Grand Forks Herald:
  • Northern Plains Nitrogen fertilizer plant
  • Grand Forks, ND
  • $2 billion
  • path unclear
  • "seed money" in place
  • project first announced in 2013
  • had hoped to have it up and running sometime this year
  • low commodity prices driving farmers away from corn and wheat (use nitrogen)
  • farmers moving to soybeans (don't use nitrogen)
  • promoters remain optimistic
  • other suppliers too far away: Iowa and Mexico
Maybe Mexico is a bit far, but Iowa? No, not really. Except you have to go through Minnesota on Warren's trains.

Having said that, this is the kind of project noveau riche Bakken mineral owners ( The Millionaires' Club) and the ND State Bank of North Dakota should support. 

North Dakota: #1 State To Raise A Family; South Dakota Ranked #1 In "Family Fun" -- January 28, 2017

I assume the poll / study was commissioned by the North Dakota State Tourism Board and the American Petroleum Institute, funded by Oasis, Continental Resources, Halcon, et al, looking for a gazillion workers that will be needed over the next few decades, but here it is:

North Dakota was ranked #1 overall.

But this is the best part, look at the categories and North Dakota's ranking:
  • family fun: 13 -- truly beyond the pale. I cannot imagine the "family fun" in ND being this high -- #13; but then, SOUTH DAKOTA was ranked #1 for family 1 -- I assume buffalo riding and the STURGIS MOTORCYCLE RALLY put the state #1;
  • health and safety: 7 (if we keep the kids off the oil rigs, ND's ranking will improve)
  • education and child care: 7 (about right, but most surprising, perennial #1 Iowa dropped to #13; #1 this year is New Jersey and #2 is Vermont)
  • affordability:   6 (had it not been for the Bakken, ND would have ranked higher)
  • socioeconomics: 2 ("everybody is the same")
That South Dakota rating for "family fun" is so off the chart, it deserves a stand-alone post

The Entire State Of California -- North And South -- Setting Rain/Snow Records -- January 28, 2017

Two global warming links today:
Data points from those two articles:
  • Squaw Valley, CA: more than 8 feet of snow fell in five days
  • Mammoth Mountain Ski Area, CA: more snow has fallen this January than any other month in the resort's recorded history -- that's any month, not just January, and the month is not yet over; as of January 24, 2017, 246 inches (20.5 feet) had fallen
  • Mammoth Mountain: previous monthly record -- 209 inches set in December 2010
  • Tahoe City, CA; snowiest January since 1952; again, the month is not over; 135 inches for the month, so far
  • there is so much snow on the Sierra Nevada that some ski lifts had to close; chairs were buried
  • a series of storms  have dumped more than 300% of normal January precipitation to most of the state
One wonders if Algore will change his slide presentation to reflect how the warmists so successfully predicted all of this.

By the way, some readers my have noted that I moved "global warming" links at the sidebar farther down. I am trying to gradually move away from posts on "global warming" -- Trump has just kept me too busy. So, a big "thank you" to a reader alerting me to these snow stories, and I assume the Kennedys were happy to see the notes, always looking for places to show their grandchildren what snow looks like.