Huge Jump In Production After Neighboring Well, Different Formation Fracked -- January 28, 2017

Updates

January 29, 2017: I received this comment after posting the note below:

I watch the Bakken more than you and I worked for Hess 45 years ago. I can tell you without any reservations that a well shut in for any significant time will display an increase in production. The amount of increase is based on duration of being shut in.

You can see the original comment at this post; it's the first comment there. 

For those who have been following the blog know the background story to this, so I won't go through it again.  I address the issue in more depth at "FAQs", question #81.

Bottom line is this: folks who understand oil much better than I do; who have followed the oil industry longer than I have; who have often worked in the oil industry; who have written me on this issue, all agree that any increase seen in production after a neighboring well is fracked is due to simply to increased pressure that has built up while the well was shut-in or taken off-line to protect it while the neighboring well was fracked.

For readers: I would listen to the folks who understand the Bakken much better than I; who have followed the oil industry long than I have; who have often worked in the oil industry.

I think it's a fascinating phenomenon, production jumping from 9,350 boe/month to 32,000 boe/month after being shut in for three months. That data point alone begs the next question. Actually that raises several questions. Perhaps another day.

Original Post

Observation only; no comment. 

Check out the production profile for this well drilled/completed back in 2012. Note that it was off-line for about four months back in late summer/autumn, 2016:

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	18890	18619	3905	60345	52280	8005
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	22710	22443	6011	54512	45465	8988
BAKKEN	10-2016	21	19472	19607	7581	33363	17446	15876
BAKKEN	9-2016	1	1493	1077	998	2356	174	2180
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	8	1543	1629	386	3718	3560	144
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	6674	6624	1878	16056	15996	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	11	2500	2619	904	4282	3537	728
BAKKEN	4-2016	24	4763	4642	1266	14040	13228	764
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	6618	6860	1650	18814	18542	210
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	7237	7278	1665	18816	18758	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	8287	7981	2027	22133	21630	441

 
A neighboring / new well was fracked late summer/autumn, 2016, API: 33-053-06747-00-00, fracked 9/17-23/2015; 2.9 million gallons water; total mass, 19% proppant;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	23163	23797	6210	77575	77406	58
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	35844	36084	10758	89424	87090	2217
BAKKEN	9-2016	4	5464	4368	2234	9309	9275	3
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	13	10524	10759	1940	46534	46414	71
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	29145	29290	6278	112794	112636	48
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	34739	34823	7064	111921	108678	3136
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	37617	37083	4467	122637	121577	960
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	44583	44923	5288	141867	140859	903
BAKKEN	2-2016	24	43519	43447	9698	108313	108095	142
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	54350	54271	10297	134072	132061	1922
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	63293	63835	15005	152601	147947	4556
BAKKEN	11-2015	15	35158	34953	11139	63018	49687	13271
BAKKEN	10-2015	14	17528	16796	13243	40796	30295	10445

The earlier well:

• 22361, 4,971, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4-3H, a middle Bakken well, t12/12; cum 499K 11/16;

The more recent neighboring well, fracked mid-September, 2015:

• 30774, 1,844, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-5TFH; a Three Forks well;

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Another well in the immediate area did not show any increase in production, except perhaps the first full month coming back on-line; it was also off-line about 2.5 months:

• 30776, 1,345, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, a Three Forks, t10/15; cum 235K 11/16;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	11187	11493	3798	52165	52051	39
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	17313	16853	6581	60133	58564	1491
BAKKEN	9-2016	1	348	401	180	825	822	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	14	5354	5439	1250	32961	32876	50
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	12849	12917	3356	76260	76154	32
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	15508	15542	3656	84073	81636	2356
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	16616	16388	3558	73073	72441	572
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	21449	21670	4070	78193	77637	498
BAKKEN	2-2016	24	25532	25529	4190	70867	70724	93

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Disclaimer: the NDIC map was hard to read due to all the horizontals; there may be errors. In addition, the narrative was done quickly and there are likely to be factual and typographical errors. Again, no conclusions/analyses are being drawn; this is simply being posted as an observation.