Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Kennedy Clan Making Plans For Colorado Skiing? -- December 15, 2015; Denver Snowfall Shatters Record -- All The Way Back To 1893

CBS Denver is reporting: Biggest Storm This Season Breaks Daily Snowfall Record In Denver
As of 5 p.m. the official measurement since midnight at Denver International Airport was 7.7″.
That is both the biggest one day snowfall so far this season and a new record for December 15.
The previous daily record for December 15 was 2.8″ set in 1897.
Today: almost 8 inches. Previous record, all the way back to 1897 was less than 3". And to think the Kennedy clan thought their children / grandchildren would never see snow again.

************************
The Ledecky Page

The video of the post-race interview with Katie after the Ledecky 1,000-yard freestyle under 9:00 minutes was just posted on YouTube. Here is the video of the race itself.


Ledecky now owns the 500, 1000, 1650-yard freestyle American record trifecta as well as the 400, 800, 1500-meter free World record triple.
500y free 4:26.58 2015
1000y free 8:59.65 2015
1650y free 15:13.30 2014
400m free 3:58.37 2014
800m free 8:07.39 2015
1500m free 15:25.48 2015

**********************
CNN GOP Debate Poll Over At Drudge

This is a dynamic link. Trump is at 50% and Cruz is at 25%. But this is what surprises me: the near front-runner with Donald Trump some weeks ago was Ben Carson. Tonight the Drudge polling puts him at 1.5%. Jeb! -- pert-near tied with Carson at 1.8% (and that's rounding up). There was talk earlier today that Rand Paul was thinking of getting out of the race. If he does, one wonders where his supporters would go. My hunch: most to Cruz. I can't imagine any Cruz supporter going anyplace other the current two front-runners.
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Only One New Permit Issued In North Dakota Today -- December 15, 2015

Wells coming off confidential list Wednesday:
  • 28280, 2,616, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-17C-8-6H, Eagle Nest, 54 stages, 4.5 million lbs, t6/15; cum 86K 10/15; see also this post;
  • 30949, 233, Sedalia Energy, Thompson 13-31 H, Lake Darling, a horizontal Madison well, not stimulated (not fracked), a short lateral, TD of 9,207 feet, payzone: Mississippean Bluell Pay Bench 3 Target, Renville County, wellbore in target 100% of the whole length, 13 operational days, geologist report dated 6/30/15; a sundry form was received October 9, 2015, with company's intent to drill a second lateral also in the Bluell B3 payzone, t7/15; cum 8K 10/15;
  • 31004, SI/NC, XTO, Rita 44X-34HXE, North Tobacco Garden, no production data;
  • Note: Sedalia has about 21 permits/wells in North Dakota. All of them are in the Lake Darling and Pratt oil fields. It looks like Sedalia has three permits/wells in the "modern era." This is the first permit/well since two in 2014.
*************************************

28280, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-17C-8-6H, Eagle Nest

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2015117969574
9-2015103727955
8-2015102225388
7-2015341290
6-2015191520

30949, see above, Sedalia Energy, Thompson 13-31 H, Lake Darling:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-201516600
9-201518870
8-201529550
7-20158750

 *****************************************

Active rigs:


12/15/201512/15/201412/15/201312/15/201212/15/2011
Active Rigs64182191181198

There was only one new permit issued today --
  • Operator: Statoil 
  • Field: East Fork (Williams)
  • Comment:
There were two permits renewed, a Resonance Ballantyne permit for a well in Bottineau County; and a Triangle USA permit for a Simpson well in McKenzie County.

There were four (4) producing wells completed:
  • 28436, 274, Zavanna, Arrowhead 10-3 3H, East Fork, t11/15; cum --
  • 28437, 388, Zavanna, Arrowhead 10-3 2TFH, East Fork, t12/15; cum --
  • 28438, 747, Zavanna, Arrowhead 10-3 1H, East Fork, t12/15; cum --
  • 30234, 1,844, BR, Sun Notch 43-32TFH, Sand Creek, t11/15; cum --
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Random Update Of QEP State Wells In Section 16-150-95 -- December 15, 2015

Updates

October 19, 2017: production data updated.

October 22, 2016: another update of these interesting wells; is there something going on with #28168 and a recompletion to explain all this? 

August 7, 2016: up to a full 25 days in 6/16, compared with only 11 days 5/15; up to 5,636 bbls in 6/16; t10/10; cum 618K 6/16;

April 10, 2016: of these six wells, QEP had a frack problem with #29326; QEP said they would come back to re-frack. I don't see sundry form regarding a new re-frack, but here is the updated production profile which suggests something has been going on:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2016936283513110844834294185
BAKKEN1-2016001040000
BAKKEN12-201541474149740218551739116
BAKKEN11-2015301936019451418924026223331693
BAKKEN10-20153132349321509808332491919713927
BAKKEN9-2015298928734621692984708


April 10, 2016: in the original post, six wells were noted to be "back on the confidential list." Those wells have now been reported:
  • 29324, 1,963, QEP, Jones 3-15-23TH, Grail, 50 stages, 10.3 million lbs, t9/15; cum 345K 8/17; only 8 days in 12/15; 
  • 29325, 2,308, QEP, Jones 5-15-22TH, Grail, 4 sections, 50 stages, 13 million lbs, t9/15; cum 289K 8/17; only 8 days in 12/15;
  • 29326, 904, QEP, Jones 3-15-22BH, Grail, 2 stages on 9/9/15; 219K sand, t10/15; cum227K 8/12; only five days total in 12/15 and 1/16; in a sundry form received October, 2015, QEP said they will come back and complete the frack at a later date; a follow-up form received in November, 2015, says QEP planned to re-complete the well; API 33-053-06235; FracFocus show the well was fracked beginning 9/8/15 and completed 2/15/15: 5.9 million lbs water;
  • 29327, 2,261, QEP, Jones 6-15-22TH, 50 stages, 9.5million lbs; Grail, t9/15; cum 321K 8/17; only seven days in 12/15;
  • 29328, 2,312, QEP, Jones 4-15-22BH, Grail, 50 stages, 13.8 million lbs, t9/15; cum 364K 8/17; only 8 days in 12/15;
  • 29329, 2,291, QEP, Jones 15-22 16-21LL, 2 sections, Grail, 50 stages, 13.8 million lbs, t9/15; cum 401K 8/17; only 8 days in 12/15;
Original Post
 
This is a very, very long note. The typical disclaimer holds: in a long note like this, there will factual and typographical errors. I may see things that do not exist, and miss things that are much more important. I am doing this for my benefit to help me understand the Bakken. Do not quote me on any of this. If this information is important to you, go to the source. I welcome comments.

N.B. When I went back to update QEPs State wells located in section 16-150-95, I noted that the wells had been taken off-line since I last visited, and when they came back on-line, production in some of them had noticeably increased.

 N.B. When I went back to update these wells (the QEP State wells in section 16-150-95, which I refer to as the index wells for this note), I noted that six horizontals seen on an earlier screen shot were no longer there. Those laterals had been drilled to total depth and were not confidential. However, prior to being fracked, they were put back on the confidential list (or put on the confidential list for the first time) and the horizontals were removed the NDIC GIS map server -- something I had not noticed that the NDIC would do -- remove horizontals from the map if the wells went confidential. This will be important in light of all the SI/NC (DUC) wells.

So, now, unto the story.

I posted this screen shot on March 20, 2015.

OLD



Today -- moments ago -- I went back to the GIS server to see what that area looks like today. Here is the screen shot today. Note the new laterals to the far west (left side) and the same "index wells" in the center. However, what do you notice to the right, the east? The six horizontal wells that looked like a "Daddy Longlegs" spider to the east (the right side) in the March 20, 2015, are NOT in the screen shot today:

NEW 



Narrative

I will look at the six wells whose laterals are missing in today's screen shot; the wells themselves are now "yellow" -- indicating they are on the confidential list. Let's see what the file report says:
  • 29329, back on conf, QEP, Jones 15-22-16-21LL, Three Forks B1, 1280-acre,
  • 29328, back on conf, QEP, Jones 4-15-22BH, middle Bakken, 1280-acre,
  • 29327, back on conf, QEP, Jones 6-15-22TH, Three Forks B1, 1280-acre,
  • 29326, back on conf, QEP, Jones 3-15-22BH, middle Bakken, 1280-acre,
  • 29325, back on conf, QEP, Jones 5-15-22TH, Three Forks B1, 1280-acre,
  • 29324, back on conf, QEP, Jones 3-15-23TH, Three Forks B1, 1280-acre,
A letter from QEP to NDIC dated April 9, 2015: the six wells on the Jones 4-15X pad have "reached TD. Based on QEP's current back log in completion schedule, the completion operations for the wells listed below will be delayed (and then the six wells are listed)."

The middle Bakken for these wells at 10,600 feet.

The Three Forks for these wells at 10,710 feet.

Although these wells are on the confidential list, because oil from these wells have been sold, oil runs and MCF sold must be reported:
  • 29329, Three Forks, sundry form received April 10, 2015: "well drilled to TD, liner set, waiting on completion."
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20153570539663
9-20151527315952
  • 29328, middle Bakken:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20152905225242
9-2015175736654
  • 29327, Three Forks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20153097026471
9-20151023311546
  • 29326, middle Bakken:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20153210319232
9-2015873984
  • 29325, Three Forks:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20152645320101
9-201545494394
  • 29324, Three Forks:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20153382435292
9-20151366851

Based on the data above, it looks like the wells were completed/fracked sometime in July/August/September, 2015, timeframe (7/15 - 9/15).

Now let's go back to the production profiles for the index wells. This was the synopsis of one of the five index wells as of December 16, 2014 with updates:
18973, 2,579, QEP/Helis, State 1-16/21H, Blue Buttes, t10/10; cum 567K 10/15; inactive 4/14; looks like it might be back on line as of 10/14; yes, now shown to be active, 12/14; huge jump in production in 12/14; coming back on line after permission to commingle production from multiple wells; large production number could be due to 'mis-allocation' during early commingling; random update, March 20, 2015; random update, May 7, 2015; 
These are the Index Wells:
  • 18973, 2,579, QEP/Helis, State 1-16/21H, Blue Buttes (scout ticket - a mistake; this is a Grail well), Three Forks; t10/10, cum 484K 1/15; inactive since 4/14; looks like it might be back on line as of 10/14; yes, now shown to be active, 12/14; huge jump in production in 12/14; coming back on line after permission to commingle production from multiple wells; 24 stages; 2.9 million lbs; t10/10; cum 567K 10/15;
  • 28165, 1,444, QEP, State 1-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 32 stages, 5.4 million lbs, t10/14; cum 119K 10/15;
  • 28166, 2,204, QEP, State 2-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 33 stages; 8.6 million lbs;  t10/14; cum 215K 10/15;
  • 28167, 2,761, QEP, State 2-16-21TH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), Three Forks B1, 39 stages; 9.9 million lbs; t10/14; cum 296K 10/15;
  • 28168,  649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 36 stages; 4.6 million lbs; t12/14; cum 13K 10/15;
These are the production profiles for the index wells:
  • 18973, Three Forks, t10/10:  something happened in the summer/autumn of 2014 when the well was taken off-line; when it came back on-line, production jumped significantly. Between June, 2015 and September, 2015, this well was taken off-line and when back on line, production again jumped significantly. Remember, this is an index well. From the narrative above, it appears six middle Bakken/Three Forks wells were fracked in this time period.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2015312049120692792030519217308789
BAKKEN9-20153015508151861656420487142276170
BAKKEN8-20152117132351611546
BAKKEN7-20151816771734130024221696715
BAKKEN6-201530707571442679751251762303
BAKKEN5-20153188558829277191698512589
BAKKEN4-2015309174935839641041790431304
BAKKEN3-201531111681103235051058894281081
BAKKEN2-2015288865875340641043587611522
BAKKEN1-201512401240991069255002505
BAKKEN12-2014301220612061477914089013975
BAKKEN11-201430000000
BAKKEN10-201431000000
BAKKEN9-20140000000
BAKKEN8-20140000000
BAKKEN7-20140000000
BAKKEN6-20140000000
BAKKEN5-2014111023100
BAKKEN4-2014255465579058740800
BAKKEN3-20143155995821607259721760
BAKKEN2-20142844904158368463242520
BAKKEN1-20143152995296487633759200
BAKKEN12-20132971997195690839980380
BAKKEN11-20133050735227382414337540
BAKKEN10-20133069326825665613757400
BAKKEN9-20133051725145418414337350
BAKKEN8-20133152055319459352531280
BAKKEN7-20132944834461450447840840
BAKKEN6-20133049474847367453145310
BAKKEN5-20133152475341492539653960
BAKKEN4-20133076227631835949794970
BAKKEN3-20133187838689974837483740
BAKKEN2-20132870887021545392639260
BAKKEN1-20133116171769155200420040
BAKKEN12-20123178387730840789878980
BAKKEN11-20123078817892882702970290
BAKKEN10-20123183928229865719371930
BAKKEN9-20123078257902850877464592315
BAKKEN8-201231860487209201272212522200
BAKKEN7-201231862586158541111078403270
BAKKEN6-2012308958894294712932113921540
BAKKEN5-201231119531199913191587015570300
BAKKEN4-201219891191541052838983890
BAKKEN3-20121695139122849899289920
BAKKEN2-2012510631528107130513050
BAKKEN1-201231104531020690711064110640
BAKKEN12-20113197119582905889188910
BAKKEN11-20111270368098512489648960
BAKKEN10-201131120171187512851271092793431
BAKKEN9-201130126711275914091243553357100
BAKKEN8-2011311493014982175218530735011180
BAKKEN7-201126170261569520341955119221330
BAKKEN6-201120108511192512521518414754430
BAKKEN5-2011291722717806176415862134122450
BAKKEN4-2011292003319476206519146141944952
BAKKEN3-201131238572408324042941928599820
BAKKEN2-2011262094820562191119134110348100
BAKKEN1-201130215912142618122445723748709
BAKKEN12-2010293216932642301039155314527703
BAKKEN11-20103040400407329039548021094243860
BAKKEN10-201081717915529521124215024215
  • 28165, middle Bakken, t10/14: as in the previous index well, note that this well came off-line in the summer of 2015, and went back on-line in late August. Six neighboring wells were probably fracked in August, 2015. When this well came back on line, productivity surged, again, as it did in the previous well.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2015312285123369671531547224629085
BAKKEN9-20152929085286268105378272626711391
BAKKEN8-201511177591755770451663815874614
BAKKEN7-20150000000
BAKKEN6-20150000000
BAKKEN5-20150000000
BAKKEN4-20150000000
BAKKEN3-201500110000
BAKKEN2-20151584700182714600104
BAKKEN1-201513881588323098921009112
BAKKEN12-2014231208812166501914246014133
BAKKEN11-20142721431212911227925501025342
BAKKEN10-201431595958776326989109854
  • 28166, middle Bakken, t10/14: it appears this well was taken off-line in early August and then placed back on line, but productivity not increased.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201525108501097254761401099754035
BAKKEN9-201515791577864821917163652760
BAKKEN8-2015744024513196056585412209
BAKKEN7-2015311686316772436221492150466340
BAKKEN6-201526649066243432693647792126
BAKKEN5-201531129091285624401333712380857
BAKKEN4-2015301212112506329712870111671610
BAKKEN3-2015311998719764559523128206222365
BAKKEN2-2015201684116922459020901175603051
BAKKEN1-2015312805827941906734444034133
BAKKEN12-2014292414724258858131175030949
BAKKEN11-20143038553383752535659651059364
BAKKEN10-2014311613015909826623767023668
  • 28167, Three Forks B1, t10/14: taken off line in August/September, 2015, timeframe; production may have increased a bit. Remember, Bakken wells decline quickly after first five to eight months, and this well was a year old, and productivity appeared to on the downslope, and then went up, maybe slightly, after coming back on line in 10/15.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20152826663265176031400952854811547
BAKKEN9-20150000000
BAKKEN8-2015411110000
BAKKEN7-2015171157711691128216374114694832
BAKKEN6-20152621456216975691391672703612030
BAKKEN5-2015312910128981478555421516233574
BAKKEN4-2015292737227563679040515352265080
BAKKEN3-2015222028620075449322698202342321
BAKKEN2-2015181793218077280221861183623191
BAKKEN1-2015313390533868594241700041324
BAKKEN12-2014293798038041600047603047247
BAKKEN11-20142549630493951043360573060204
BAKKEN10-2014312039520116804131493031367
  • 28168, middle Bakken, t12/14: and this little piggy went to market; I can't make anything out of this well.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201523549054567470670847761932
BAKKEN9-20150000000
BAKKEN8-201500120000
BAKKEN7-2015212631251121394975411
BAKKEN6-20150000000
BAKKEN5-20150000000
BAKKEN4-20150000000
BAKKEN3-20150000000
BAKKEN2-201500160000
BAKKEN1-20151411021126940137901367
BAKKEN12-201422339333532161308703055
BAKKEN11-201400220000
BAKKEN10-2014191634161213243080298

Now, where were these index wells in relation to the newer wells (still on confidential list, and probably fracked in the July - September, 2015, timeframe)?
  • #28165 is closest; this middle Bakken well surged in productivity after neighboring wells fracked; this horizontal, the closest to the new wells, is about 750 feet away from the nearest new well that was fracked;
  • then comes 28166; this middle Bakken well did not show much increase;
  • then comes 18973; this Three Forks well had one of the biggest boosts in productivity; this well is about 1,900 feet from the nearest new well that was fracked;
  • then comes 28167; this Three Forks well might have shown a slight increase in productivity;
  • and finally, the horizontal farthest from the newly fracked wells is #28168: a lousy well; a middle Bakken well; this well was almost 3,000 feet from the nearest new well that was fracked;
Two comments:
  • the jump in production may have nothing to do with effect from neighboring wells that are being fracked; there could be other explanations
  • even if there is a jump in production associated with a neighbor well being fracked, it may not offset the loss in production that occurred when the well was taken off-line; I assume operators minimize the time a well is taken off-line, especially if it's a good well
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