Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Previous: 24.5 cents (previous four quarters); 22 cents prior to that;
New: 28 cents; record date, 6/4/21; payable: 7/1/21; 14%;
Earnings calendar from social media:
Monday, May 3, 2021: FANG, VNOM
Tuesday, May 4, 2021: COP, BRY, CDEV, CRK, DVN, PVAC, PXD, WTI
Wednesday, May 5, 2021: APA, CPE, XEC, LPI, MGY (?), MRO, PDCE, SBOW, SU, OAS, WLL
Thursday, May 6, 2021: DEN, MUR, SUN, EOG, EQT, ESTE (?)
Friday, May 7, 2021: BATL (?), BCEI, ERF, NOG
Note: OAS reported May 3, 2021;
This is getting to be as complicated as the NFL draft.
First, remember this from "Deals in 2020":
One of the deals: FANG buys QEP.
Naturally the first thought: what happens to QEP's assets in the Bakken? Certainly FANG isn't about to enter the Bakken.
Now, we know.
Oasis buys QEP's assets in the Bakken from FANG.
How CLR did not grab this is beyond me.
95,000 net acres.
$745 million.
$745 million / 95,000 net acres = $8,000 / acre.
Huge thanks to a reader for alerting me to this story. Thank you.
Oasis had 402,000 net acres in North Dakota; now with 497,000 net acres.
Streetinsider report here, 1Q21:
Wow, I love this blog.
Yesterday I spent a bit of time talking about "streaming content."
It was a long note, but the two most important data points in that very, very long note:
One has to agree there is at least one "thing" more valuable than the MGM catalogue, and Amazon just bought it.
The NFL's "Thursday Night Football" franchise is clearly more valuable than the MGM catalogue. That's arguable, of course, but ...
... this tells me the Amazon folks still have the pulse of America.
One source says Amazon has bought the next eleven seasons of "Thursday Night Football," starting in 2022. Another source says it's ten years beginning in 2023. Whatever.
This is the first time a streaming service will carry a full package of games exclusively.
I'm sure I'm wrong on this but this suggests to me the "NFL Network" is struggling.
For Apple, that moat is getting wider and wider ... and it's not good. For Apple. If Apple loses its battle with Epic, 2021 will go down as a most horrendous year for Tim Cook.
My hunch: Amazon Prime will go up in price -- but that's fine: I came for the "free shipping," but I stayed for Thursday night football. LOL.
Active rigs:
| $64.49 | 5/3/2021 | 05/03/2020 | 05/03/2019 | 05/03/2018 | 05/03/2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 16 | 30 | 63 | 62 | 50 |
Three new oil and gas permits, #38289 - #38291, inclusvie:
Two permit renewals:
Two permits canceled:
Doses over a 24-hour period:
In the data below, all rows are hidden except for data for Mondays going back nine weeks.
After Monday, March 1, 2021, numbers rose for the next two weeks, hitting a "Monday" hitting a high of 2.6 million doses administered on April 12, 2021 (6th column). The day before Fauci/CDC would announce a "JNJ vaccine" pause.
But then after the "JNJ pause" announcement, the numbers dropped significantly. On Monday, April 19, 2021, slightly less than two weeks after the announcement, the number of vaccinations over 24 hours dropped from a high of 2.6 million doses to 2.17 million does, and continued to drop linearly over the next two weeks, down to 1.189 million doses in the most recent 24-hour period -- below the hoped for two-million/day number ... and this is when it is recommended that everyone over the age of 16 be vaccinated.
The numbers should be surging, not dropping.
A drop from 2.645 million to 1.189 million doses: a 55% drop. One could argue we should be seeing three million doses every 24 hours now. If so, the 1.189 represents a 60% disappointment.
|
|
|
Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities |
Change from day before |
Vaccinations given |
Doses administered in past 24 hours. |
Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered |
Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday |
Average number of doses given / day in past seven days |
|
Monday |
May 3, 2021 |
312,509,575 |
0 |
246,780,203 |
1,188,734 |
78.97% |
21,817,570 |
2,287,393 |
|
Monday |
April 26, 2021 |
290,692,005 |
0 |
230,768,454 |
2,107,046 |
79.39% |
26,186,280 |
2,741,021 |
|
Monday |
April 19, 2021 |
264,505,725 |
0 |
211,581,309 |
2,174,495 |
79.99% |
26,709,420 |
3,127,038 |
|
Monday |
April 12, 2021 |
237,796,305 |
200 |
189,692,045 |
2,644,914 |
79.77% |
29,904,910 |
3,214,893 |
|
Monday |
April 5, 2021 |
207,891,395 |
100 |
167,187,795 |
2,134,049 |
80.42% |
27,244,830 |
3,053,566 |
|
Monday |
March 29, 2021 |
180,646,565 |
100 |
145,812,835 |
2,350,144 |
80.72% |
23,912,010 |
2,757,586 |
|
Monday |
March 22, 2021 |
156,734,555 |
0 |
126,509,736 |
2,028,324 |
80.72% |
20,886,720 |
2,489,697 |
|
Moday |
March 15, 2021 |
135,847,835 |
0 |
109,081,860 |
2,021,586 |
80.30% |
19,469,220 |
2,427,430 |
|
Monday |
March 8, 2021 |
116,378,615 |
15,210 |
92,089,852 |
1,738,102 |
79.13% |
19,976,125 |
2,169,981 |
|
Monday |
March 1, 2021 |
96,402,490 |
0 |
76,899,987 |
1,663,984 |
79.77% |
14,288,120 |
1,817,502 |
Updates
Later, 12:27 p.m. CDT: a reader who has worked in the industry; know electricity well writes --
Extra-high-voltage (EHV) transmission is defined as between 365kV and 1000kV for AC. EHV lines are used to move large amounts of power across long distances. The higher the voltage, the lower the losses. In addition, by being able to move more power across one line, fewer overall lines are needed for transmission.
Original Post
Bakken economy:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Gasoline demand: this is telling -- and it's hard to argue it's not related directly to rising cost of gasoline --
Dow transports: early Monday morning, May 3, 2021 -- hits new all-time intra-day high.
FOMO:
BRK-B: hits all-time high; surges after the B&M show on Saturday, May 1, 2021; up 1.64% in early trading; up almost $5/share; trading near $280.
Titanic numbers: 60% of companies have reported earnings; average "beat": 22.8%.
John Bogle, what drives stocks?
May: sell and go-away. CNBC says strategy has not worked for the past ten years. This year: FOMO.
Investors: something to think about -- lots of talk about an increase in capital gains tax (will only affect high earners, directly), but no talk about a higher tax on dividends?
Most under-reported story: rate of growth in Covid-19 vaccinations not just leveling off, but actually declining; still good numbers but much lower than expected. [Later: I posted that earlier this morning; about one hour later CNBC is reporting the same thing -- "vaccine hesitancy." Risk of not reaching herd immunity based on vaccination.
Gasoline demand: surges.
GasBuddy -- Saturday, May 1, 2021, gasoline demand rose 9.1% from the prior Saturday --setting a new pandemic high for a Saturday. With that, weekly gasoline demand jumped 3% to the second highest week since the pandemic began. Link here. Pundit suggests we will hit pre-covid demand in June (that's next month). Peter Toolan asks: "Wondering if there is a statistic for EV use and charging stations now?" Tells me all I need to know.
Verizon: Apollo; link here. Verizon sells Yahoo and AOL to Apollo for $5 billion. Up about 0.6% pre-market.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Yahoo!Finance newsletter: Warren Buffett's advice.
Schlumberger - Saudi IPO: link here.
EPD: beats; results here;
Apple vs EPIC: if Apple loses, the monetary "loss" will be trivial; the "psychological" damage will be huge; no matter how it turns out it will be an epic loss, for one or the other.
UNP:
**************************
Back to the Bakken
DAPL: returns to court today for "pivotal hearing." Operator taking case to US Supreme Court suggests to me this is all over. This reminds me of the Woody-Hayes-attributed quote on why he did not like passing: there are three things that can happen when you throw a pass, and two of them are bad.
Bakken economy:
Active rigs:
| $63.69 | 5/3/2021 | 05/03/2020 | 05/03/2019 | 05/03/2018 | 05/03/2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 15 | 30 | 63 | 62 | 50 |
Wells coming off the confidential list --
Monday, May 3, 2021: 5 for the month, 29 for the quarter, 110 for the year:
Sunday, May 2, 2021: 3 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 108 for the year:
RBN Energy: prospects for severe springtime gas takeaway constraints in Appalachia, part 6.
Outbound natural gas flows from Appalachia over the weekend hit a new record high of 17.3 Bcf/d and averaged 16.7 Bcf/d for April — an all-time high for any month. That’s despite pipeline maintenance season being well underway last month and intermittently curtailing production and outflow capacity. Utilization rates of takeaway pipelines from the region are soaring above 90%, with little more than 1 Bcf/d of spare exit capacity for outflows of surplus Northeast production.
Whether that will be enough to stave off severe constraints and discounted pricing in Appalachia in what’s left of the spring season, and again in the fall will depend on how much surplus gas is left after meeting in-region consumption and storage refill requirements. What happens when seasonal demand declines occur in May and June? In today’s blog, we wrap up our analysis of current outbound capacity utilization and where that leaves the Northeast gas market this spring.
