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Monday, May 3, 2021

Baxter Increases Its Dividend -- May 3, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Increase.

Previous: 24.5 cents (previous four quarters); 22 cents prior to that;
New: 28 cents; record date, 6/4/21; payable: 7/1/21; 14%;

Earnings This Week -- May 3, 2021

Earnings calendar from social media:

Monday, May 3, 2021: FANG, VNOM

Tuesday, May 4, 2021: COP, BRY, CDEV, CRK, DVN, PVAC, PXD, WTI

Wednesday, May 5, 2021: APA, CPE, XEC, LPI, MGY (?), MRO, PDCE, SBOW, SU, OAS, WLL

Thursday, May 6, 2021: DEN, MUR, SUN, EOG, EQT, ESTE (?)

Friday, May 7, 2021: BATL (?), BCEI, ERF, NOG 

Note: OAS reported May 3, 2021;

OAS Buys QEP's Bakken Assets From FANG -- Got That? -- May 3, 2021

This is getting to be as complicated as the NFL draft. 

First, remember this from "Deals in 2020":

One of the deals: FANG buys QEP.

Naturally the first thought: what happens to QEP's assets in the Bakken? Certainly FANG isn't about to enter the Bakken.

Now, we know. 

Oasis buys QEP's assets in the Bakken from FANG

How CLR did not grab this is beyond me. 

95,000 net acres.

$745 million.

$745 million / 95,000 net acres = $8,000 / acre. 

Huge thanks to a reader for alerting me to this story. Thank you. 

Oasis had 402,000 net acres in North Dakota; now with 497,000 net acres. 

Current presentations here

Streetinsider report here, 1Q21:

  • EPS: $4.34 vs analyst estimate of $2.56 / share
  • revenue: $355.5 million vs estimate of $225 million

Oasis is tracked here.

"Honey, I Just Bought Eleven Seasons Of NFL Thursday Night Football" -- Jeff Bezos -- May 3, 2021

Wow, I love this blog. 

Yesterday I spent a bit of time talking about "streaming content."

It was a long note, but the two most important data points in that very, very long note:

  • Amazon has more money than God.
  • That's the problem with Apple TV. It has no content. I subscribe to Apple TV (still free. Well, almost free: one cent per month). Apple needs to do something and needs to do something this year if it wants to "save" Apple TV. Every month it waits, the gap between Apple and Amazon, and the gap between Apple and Netflix, widens. At some point the moat may be too wide for Apple to bridge. Especially if Amazon acquires the MGM catalogue.  

One has to agree there is at least one "thing" more valuable than the MGM catalogue, and Amazon just bought it.

The NFL's "Thursday Night Football" franchise is clearly more valuable than the MGM catalogue. That's arguable, of course, but ...  

... this tells me the Amazon folks still have the pulse of America. 

One source says Amazon has bought the next eleven seasons of "Thursday Night Football," starting in 2022. Another source says it's ten years beginning in 2023. Whatever.

This is the first time a streaming service will carry a full package of games exclusively. 

I'm sure I'm wrong on this but this suggests to me the "NFL Network" is struggling. 

For Apple, that moat is getting wider and wider ... and it's not good. For Apple. If Apple loses its battle with Epic, 2021 will go down as a most horrendous year for Tim Cook.

My hunch: Amazon Prime will go up in price -- but that's fine: I came for the "free shipping," but I stayed for Thursday night football. LOL.

Whiting With Three New Permits In Sanish/Parshall Oil Fields -- May 3, 2021

Active rigs:

$64.49
5/3/202105/03/202005/03/201905/03/201805/03/2017
Active Rigs1630636250

Three new oil and gas permits, #38289 - #38291, inclusvie:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish/Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments: Whiting has permits for three new oil and gas permits; the first two permits below are for salt water disposal well;
    • 38287, conf, McKenzie Energy Partners, LLC, Smokey 16-22 SWD; salt water disposal well;
    • 38288, conf, Koda Resources Operating, LLC, Stout 34-1 SWD, Fertile Valley, salt water disposal well;
    • 38289, conf, Whiting, LBJ 14-14HU, Sanish, SESW 14-153-91; 330 FSL 1730 FWL,
    • 38290, conf, Whiting, LBJ 24-14H, Sanish, SESW 14-153-91; 330 FSL 1760 FWL,
    • 38291, conf, Whiting, LBJ 24-14HU, Parshall, SESW 14-153-91; 330 FSL 1790 FWL,
      • the three well are confidential so I can't see the permits but looking at the NDIC GIS map, my hunch is they run north into section 11, 1280-acre spacing, sections 11/14-153-91;

Two permit renewals:

  • SHD Oil & Gas: a Charging Wildcat permit and a Luke Neset permit, both in McLean County

Two permits canceled:

  • Bruin: two FB Leviathan permits in McKenzie County
    • comment: Bruin, bankruptcy protections; assets to be bought by Enerplus

"Vaccine Hesitancy" Is Getting Worse -- May 3, 2021

CDC data here

Doses over a 24-hour period:

  • last Monday: 2.11 million doses
  • today, this Monday, one week later: 1.189 million doses

In the data below, all rows are hidden except for data for Mondays going back nine weeks. 

After Monday, March 1, 2021, numbers  rose for the next two weeks, hitting a "Monday" hitting a high of 2.6 million doses administered on April 12, 2021 (6th column). The day before Fauci/CDC would announce a "JNJ vaccine" pause.

But then after the "JNJ pause" announcement, the numbers dropped significantly. On Monday, April 19, 2021, slightly less than two weeks after the announcement, the number of vaccinations over 24 hours dropped from a high of 2.6 million doses to 2.17 million does, and continued to drop linearly over the next two weeks, down to 1.189 million doses in the most recent 24-hour period -- below the hoped for two-million/day number ... and this is when it is recommended that everyone over the age of 16 be vaccinated. 

The numbers should be surging, not dropping.

A drop from 2.645 million to 1.189 million doses: a 55% drop. One could argue we should be seeing three million doses every 24 hours now. If so, the 1.189 represents a 60% disappointment.



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Doses administered in past 24 hours.

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday

Average number of doses given / day in past seven days

Monday

May 3, 2021

312,509,575

0

246,780,203

1,188,734

78.97%

21,817,570

2,287,393

Monday

April 26, 2021

290,692,005

0

230,768,454

2,107,046

79.39%

26,186,280

2,741,021

Monday 

April 19, 2021

264,505,725

0

211,581,309

2,174,495

79.99%

26,709,420

3,127,038

Monday

April 12, 2021

237,796,305

200

189,692,045

2,644,914

79.77%

29,904,910

3,214,893

Monday

April 5, 2021

207,891,395

100

167,187,795

2,134,049

80.42%

27,244,830

3,053,566

Monday

March 29, 2021

180,646,565

100

145,812,835

2,350,144

80.72%

23,912,010

2,757,586

Monday

March 22, 2021

156,734,555

0

126,509,736

2,028,324

80.72%

20,886,720

2,489,697

Moday

March 15, 2021

135,847,835

0

109,081,860

2,021,586

80.30%

19,469,220

2,427,430

Monday

March 8, 2021

116,378,615

15,210

92,089,852

1,738,102

79.13%

19,976,125

2,169,981

Monday    

March 1, 2021

96,402,490

0

76,899,987

1,663,984

79.77%

14,288,120

1,817,502

Bakken Economy -- Electricity Demand Continues To Grow -- May 3, 2021

Updates

Later, 12:27 p.m. CDT: a reader who has worked in the industry; know electricity well writes -- 

Extra-high-voltage (EHV) transmission is defined as between 365kV and 1000kV for AC. EHV lines are used to move large amounts of power across long distances. The higher the voltage, the lower the losses. In addition, by being able to move more power across one line, fewer overall lines are needed for transmission.  

Original Post

Bakken economy:

  • Basin Electric Power Coop to build 26.5-mile transmission line in Mountrail County;
  • $57.4 million; $2.2 million / mile
  • old WAG: highways, $1 million / mile; pipeline, $1 million / mile;
  • link here;
  • to meet growing electricity demand;
  • 930-kilovolt line
  • from the Neset Substation east of Tioga to the Northshore Substation south of Ross
  • 184 steel pole and frame structures


 

Five Wells Coming Off Confidential List; MRO Reports A Huge Vickall Well; Zavanna Reports A Nice Blue Heeler Well -- May 3, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Gasoline demand: this is telling -- and it's hard to argue it's not related directly to rising cost of gasoline -- 

Dow transports: early Monday morning, May 3, 2021 -- hits new all-time intra-day high. 

FOMO:

BRK-B: hits all-time high; surges after the B&M show on Saturday, May 1, 2021; up 1.64% in early trading; up almost $5/share; trading near $280.

Titanic numbers: 60% of companies have reported earnings; average "beat": 22.8%

John Bogle, what drives stocks?

  • earnings: up 10% so far this year;
  • dividend growth: up 5% so far this year;
  • improving P/E: declining so far this year
  • liquidity: huge inflow to date

May: sell and go-away. CNBC says strategy has not worked for the past ten years. This year: FOMO. 

Investors: something to think about -- lots of talk about an increase in capital gains tax (will only affect high earners, directly), but no talk about a higher tax on dividends?

Most under-reported story: rate of growth in Covid-19 vaccinations not just leveling off, but actually declining; still good numbers but much lower than expected.  [Later: I posted that earlier this morning; about one hour later CNBC is reporting the same thing -- "vaccine hesitancy." Risk of not reaching herd immunity based on vaccination.

  • New Jersey: buses and mass transit -- passengers packed in like sardines; government still mandates highly restrictive capacities for restaurants.

Gasoline demand: surges. 

GasBuddy -- Saturday, May 1, 2021, gasoline demand rose 9.1% from the prior Saturday --setting a new pandemic high for a Saturday. With that, weekly gasoline demand jumped 3% to the second highest week since the pandemic began. Link here. Pundit suggests we will hit pre-covid demand in June (that's next month). Peter Toolan asks: "Wondering if there is a statistic for EV use and charging stations now?" Tells me all I need to know.

Verizon: Apollo; link here. Verizon sells Yahoo and AOL to Apollo for $5 billion. Up about 0.6% pre-market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Yahoo!Finance newsletter: Warren Buffett's advice. 

Schlumberger - Saudi IPO: link here

EPD: beats; results here;

  • EPS: 61 cents (56 cents?) vs 48 cents forecast; vs 61 cents one year ago;
  • social media: "continuing the beat streak with results >10% better than consensus"
Tesla

Apple vs EPIC: if Apple loses, the monetary "loss" will be trivial; the "psychological" damage will be huge; no matter how it turns out it will be an epic loss, for one or the other.

UNP:

**************************
Back to the Bakken

DAPL: returns to court today for "pivotal hearing." Operator taking case to US Supreme Court suggests to me this is all over. This reminds me of the Woody-Hayes-attributed quote on why he did not like passing: there are three things that can happen when you throw a pass, and two of them are bad.

Bakken economy:

  • Basin Electric Power Coop to build 26.5-mile transmission line in Mountrail County;
  • $57.4 million; $2.2 million / mile
  • old WAG: highways, $1 million / mile; pipeline, $1 million / mile;
  • link here;
  • to meet growing electricity demand;
  • 930-kilovolt line
  • from the Neset Substation east of Tioga to the Northshore Substation south of Ross
  • 184 steel pole and frame structures

Active rigs:

$63.69
5/3/202105/03/202005/03/201905/03/201805/03/2017
Active Rigs1530636250

Wells coming off the confidential list --

Monday, May 3, 2021: 5 for the month, 29 for the quarter, 110 for the year:

  • 37539, drl/drl, BR, Faye 3A-UTFH, Elidah, no production data;
  • 36921, AL/A, MRO, Vickall USA 34-5H, Reunion Bay, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 164K 2/21;

Sunday, May 2, 2021: 3 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 108 for the year:

  • 36606, F/A, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-5, Manitou, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 87K 2/21;
Saturday, May 1, 2021: 2 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 107 for the year:
  • 37150, drl/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-2B-11 1H, Charlson, no production;
  • 36543, F/A, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16 3TFH, Stony Creek, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 55K 2/21;

RBN Energy: prospects for severe springtime gas takeaway constraints in Appalachia, part 6

Outbound natural gas flows from Appalachia over the weekend hit a new record high of 17.3 Bcf/d and averaged 16.7 Bcf/d for April — an all-time high for any month. That’s despite pipeline maintenance season being well underway last month and intermittently curtailing production and outflow capacity. Utilization rates of takeaway pipelines from the region are soaring above 90%, with little more than 1 Bcf/d of spare exit capacity for outflows of surplus Northeast production. 
Whether that will be enough to stave off severe constraints and discounted pricing in Appalachia in what’s left of the spring season, and again in the fall will depend on how much surplus gas is left after meeting in-region consumption and storage refill requirements. What happens when seasonal demand declines occur in May and June? In today’s blog, we wrap up our analysis of current outbound capacity utilization and where that leaves the Northeast gas market this spring.