Monday, September 25, 2023

Why I'm Not Worried About The US -- Exhibit A -- September 25, 2023

Locator: 45582GREECE. 

Link here.


 


Hess With Two New Permits In Wheelock, Northeast Of Williston -- September 25, 2023

Locator: 45581B. 

NFL: two games tonight? What a great country. 

Lego: expanding online ambitions by tripling total number of software engineers. Link here.

Properties of oil:

light and sweet:

OKE - MMP -- Financial Times: link here.

  • bets on energy transition spark rise in North American pipeline deals.

CVX: ready for new drilling in Venezuela? Link here.

Armenia: Putin losing another ally to Biden? Link here.

CRH: primary stock listing moved from Europe to the US. Barron's.

*************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 31.

WTI: $89.68.

Two new permits, #40224 - #30225, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Wheelock (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for a GO-Dustin Brose-LE well, and a GO-Beck Living TR-LE well, NENE 29-156-98; 
      • the first to be sited 330 FNL and 590 FEL; 
      • the GO-Beck Living well will be sited 330 FNL and 623 FEL.

Fourteen producers now abandoned:

  • producers operated by an outfit called "31 Operating, LLC"
  • counties: one in Renville; all the others in Bottineau;

DFW -- Re-Posting -- September 25, 2023

Link here.

Locator: 45372TX.

Dallas - Ft Worth: boomtown.

  • Population: imagine San Diego, San Jose, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Boise all rolled up into the same metropolitan area.
  • Zoom in: That would give you a sense of just how many people now live in the Dallas-Fort Worth area's major cities, which aside from the titular pair also include Arlington, Plano and Garland. 
  • The big picture: Dallas-Fort Worth is one of the country's fastest growing metropolitan areas. The region added more people than any other U.S. metro between 2021 and 2022, with 170,396 new residents. 
  • Zoom out: Texas is one of six states benefiting from a massive southward wealth migration, which is pulling the U.S. economic center away from the Northeast.
  • By the numbers
    •  265 businesses have either relocated or expanded to Dallas-Fort Worth since 2020. 
      • Dallas accounted for 59 of those moves. 
      • Among the biggest: Caterpillar, which last year relocated its headquarters from suburban Chicago to Irving.
    • Irving, a suburb near DFW Airport, has seen more than 20 business expansions and relocations in the past three years.

"The six states" not named, but possibly: the two Carolinas; Georgia; Florida; Tennessee; and, Texas?

Yup, see this article.

Reminder: OKE Trading — MMP No Longer Trading — September 25, 2023

Locator: 45580OKE. 

Just between you and me, my hunch: 20 years from now, I’ll be quite happy. I think this was a huge deal. A bit under the radar. I’m surprised it went through.

No recommendations now. Just an observation.

Looking forward to management’s philosophy on dividends.

Press release.

The Apple iPhone Hasn't Even Seen Two Weekends Yet -- Already Talking About "Sweet 16" -- September 25, 2023

Locator: 45579APPLE.

Link here.

From the linked article:

The ‌iPhone 15 Pro‌'s A17 Pro chip is fabricated using TSMC's N3B process, but Apple reportedly plans to switch to the lower-cost N3E process for next year's standard A17 chip designed for the ‌iPhone 16‌ and ‌iPhone 16‌ Plus.
This will mark the first time that Apple has designed a chip specifically for its standard iPhone models.
In previous years, Apple simply gave the entire ‌iPhone‌ lineup the same chip before staggering them by one year between the standard and the Pro models starting with 2022's iPhone 14.

The "A" chip? Links:

  • Apple Silicon.
    • at the link, look at the long list of chips.
    • there are no less than nine "chips." The term "chips" is used broadly.
    • A, H, M, R, S, T, U, W, M (again).
    • brand new -- the R series. The R1 is a key component of the new Vision Pro.

The Book Page -- Insulin -- September 25, 2023

Locator: 45578BIGPHARMA. 

Parity: WTI and Brent near parity. Link here. I used to track the spread; haven't done that in a long, long time. Historically, though I no longer know what "historically" means when it comes to oil, WTI sold at a premium to Brent. I forget when that changed but it was so long ago (at least in my mind) that "historical" seems to have less relevancy now except perhaps for the older oil traders.

  • a reminder: WTI now part of the Brent blend;
  • about $2.35 / bbl to carry WTI to blend with Brent
  • knock off the transportation cost, and WTI / Brent almost at parity

A reminder:

The Brent benchmark has seen downward pressure since WTI crude was included on June 1 in the Brent crude basket that underlies the world's most traded benchmark contract. WTI Midland became the first non-European grade included in the basket, highlighting the change that the U.S. shale revolution brought about for the global oil market.

After WTI Midland joined the Brent benchmark, Brent has seen downward pressure because WTI shipments to Europe are much higher than the combined loadings of the other crudes underpinning the North Sea benchmark.

************************
The Book Club: Insulin

Link here.

Big Day for Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- September 25, 2023

Locator: 45577B.

WTI: $90? It's Monday morning; expect WTI to go negative.

Tuesday, September 26, 2023: 114 for the month; 316 for the quarter, 561 for the year
39595, conf, Neptune Operating, Sigma Lee 14-23 3H,
39569, conf, CLR, Eclipse SWD,
39563, conf, Kraken, Blaine 33-28 2H,

Monday, September 25, 2023: 111 for the month; 313 for the quarter, 558 for the year
39596, conf, Neptune Operating, Sigma Lee 14-23 2H,
37265, conf, Whiting, Borseth 31-15-4H,

Sunday, September 24, 2023: 109 for the month; 311 for the quarter, 556 for the year
39134, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-33-28H,
39133, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 3-33-28H,
38902, conf, CLR, Astro SWD,

Saturday, September 23, 2023: 106 for the month; 308 for the quarter, 553 for the year
39622, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ruby 5 20-17-158N-100W-MBH-LLW,
37264, conf, Whiting, Wilson 31-15-3H,

RBN Energy: spurred by interest from Japan and South Korea, clean ammonia projects proliferate.

Clean ammonia, which is produced by reacting clean hydrogen with nitrogen and capturing and sequestering the resulting carbon dioxide (CO2), is gaining momentum. In just the past few months, several more new clean ammonia production projects have been proposed along the U.S. Gulf Coast, many of them made possible by commitments from Japanese and South Korean companies that see the low-carbon fuel as an important part of the Far East’s future energy mix. Taken as a group, the dozen-plus projects now under development have the potential to produce tens of millions of tons of clean ammonia annually, and to create yet another massive energy-export market for U.S. producers. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the new projects moving forward — and one being put on hold — and what’s driving the clean ammonia market.

A year and a half ago, in Something to Believe In, we looked at Japan and South Korea’s growing interest in co-firing coal plants with clean ammonia as a way to reduce the plants’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We emphasized there — and do so again here — that there is a lot of skepticism regarding the outlook for clean hydrogen and clean ammonia as “fuels of the future,” or more specifically about whether these commodities can ever be produced efficiently and cheaply enough — and in sufficient volumes — to result in their widespread use. Also, there’s a lot of concern that co-firing Japanese and South Korean coal plants with clean ammonia would result in only a modest reduction in GHG emissions and would extend the use of coal, which is widely viewed as the dirtiest fossil fuel.

Monday, Monday -- September 25, 2023

Locator: 45576B.

Reminder:

RMD rollback rules for 2023:

College football poll

Hurricane:

  • Ophelia a dud
  • Phillipe: a gazillion miles to the east but NHC already creating panic

France / Macron feeling the pinch:

EU LNG:

Apple - India:

  • google Apple India invest fivefold

Hollywood strike:

  • tentative deal after 150 days
  • if UAW strike lasts half that long -- we're into the holidays;
  • UAW: looking for “months-long” strike; link here;
  • AOC drives a non-union-made EV; makes excuses.

Mortgages:

  • there is a way to get around high mortgage rates -- Yahoo!Finance morning brief;
  • no link; too much pushback expected.

Fed rate increases:

  • CEOs generally not concerned -- Yahoo!Finance morning brief;
  • no link; too much pushback expected.

QCOM:

Chips:

  • pain likely to continue;

Autos:

Maps:

  • Peter Zeihan's cheat sheet for dating maps. Link here.
  • Most interesting: the starting point -- the great divide.

Ukraine war:

  • not always (immediately) confirmed, but apparently some "big" names / high-ranking officers in Russian military being sent home early and unexpectedly.

The book page:



Only Story Worth Posting Today — So Far — September 25, 2023

Locator: 45575LEGO.

Link here.

Link here.

Link here.

BS.