Friday, January 2, 2026

Market -- Investing -- January 2, 2026

Locator49783MARKET.

Weather: wow, wow, wow, what an incredible day -- it's already 61°F, absolutely cloudless, and no wind, not even a breeze. The high will only get to 71° but that's fine. No complaints.  

Market: I haven't followed the market for about two weeks -- with some very minimal exceptions, mostly related to recording EOY statements.

I won't be following the market today either. In fact, my life has been much calmer and I've gotten a lot more reading done. I don't make New Year's resolutions but I have to admit, I may limit my screen time with CNBC to less than one hour per week. No typo. Ten minutes with sound on mute every day, 0800 to 0810, central standard / daylight time -- just to see the "implied opens." 

Buffett: Speaking of which, I was completely unaware of Warren Buffett's marital arrangement(s). Absolutely fascinating. I was also unaware that one of his closest friends over the year was Ms Christie Hefner, yes, that Hefner.  All this from the 2008 biography of Warren Buffet, and, no, the author was not Becky Quick. 

Much could be said.  

RMDs: With regard to investing, my wife can't take her RMDs fast enough each year. Me? I try to wait as long as possible but because I'm giving all my RMDs away (most ly to Uncle Sam, then to the grandchildren) I take my RMDs earlier than I used to. 

With regard to the grandchildren, I will fully fund their Roth IRAs through age 29 (their age, 29, not mine, LOL). My wife and I will also ensure our grandchildren emerge from college debt-free. 

On another somewhat sad note, I'm starting to see a whole lot more typographical errors on the blog. I correct them as I find them and I appreciate readers not e-mailing me regarding those errors. Significant "content" errors, however, I do want to know about. 

College football yesterday: incredible games, surprising outcomes -- quarterfinals in the books, as they say, and teams that made the semifinals are known (in bold below):

  • Miami over Ohio State, absolutely shocking; much could be said about Ohio's seasonal schedule; a decisive 24-14 win for Miami; 
  • Oregon over Tech Tech, 23 - 0; Texas Tech, known for their explosive offense ... imploded; Oregon has a history of doing this;
  • Indiana over Alabama, 38-3; a blow-out; wow, this is going to be a incredible finish for the college championship; First Take is have a great time with this game;
  • Ole Miss squeezed by Georgia, 39 - 34. This was probably the best game with regard to "pins and needles." It was Georgia's game to lose early on; then Ole Miss came back and dominated for 30 minutes or so, but then Ole Miss closed the deal, though, perhaps with some controversy. 

What's next? The two semifinals games:

  • #1 Indiana plays #5 Oregon; and,
  • #6 Ole Miss plays #10 Miami.

I would assume Indiana will be playing Miami in the Championship Game. Whoo-hoo!

I have no dog in that fight: my allegiances to either team will flip-flop throughout the game. My preference is a first-three-quarter-hard-fought game with no clear winner and then the ultimate winner blows it away in the fourth quarter. I like to see the champion make a statement. And if not that, a tie in regulation time, and then two overtime periods. 

Oh, back to investing. Since it's such a big day (Warren Buffett is no longer CEO of BRK), let's check on BRK-B at the open: down almost a percent; down almost $5.00; trading under $500, at $497.89. My hunch, the chairman of the board for BRK is talking to Greg Abel this morning. BRK will likely take one of two paths: remain a "mutual fund," making gobs of money for the company's directors and senior leaders but rank-and-file shareholders won't do particularly well compared to the rest of the market; or, Greg Abel ... nope, there are no two paths. 

For the record, I believe the S&P 500 was up 16% for calendar year 2025; BRK was up 11%, and it was a fairly easy year to do very, very well in the market .... early on it was clear that if one likes shooting fish in a barrel, one would have done well shooting at the Magnificent 7 and tech infrastructure.  

"Seasonal Flu" Update -- January 2, 2026

Locator49782FLU.

A lot of stories in the mainstream media about the surge in "seasonal flu." That is true. Whether this is worse than last year or not is yet to be seen. It appears the current "flu" season started about two weeks earlier than last year and has the identical parabolic trajectory. 

Link here, week 51, ending December 20, 2025. We may get an update later today.  

The most recent graphic with only last year's data and this year's data presented:

In the big scheme of things, it's a pediatric threat, not so much for adults, and especially not for seniors who appear to be less effected (every year). 

Seniors get their flu shots. I haven't had flu in decades; in fact, I can't remember ever having the "flu." Vaccines were mandatory in the military. I've got a history of nearly 50 years of annual flu shots. Knock on wood. Although immunity from a specific flu shot decreases over time, I've always maintained there's always a few white cells that "remember" older flu shots. I know I'm wrong, but I like to think that.

Some say the flu virus can't survive the extreme cold in North Dakota. I doubt that's true, but I also like to think that. I doubt I ever got a flu shot until I was in my 30's -- I came on active duty at age 27 or thereabouts. 

So far this year, the southern states, the Atlantic seaboard, and New England seem to have been hit particularly hard.

TGIF -- January 2, 2026

Locator49781B.

Chokepoint: from "Google Empire" -- 

A key insight most people miss, from ChatGPT:

  • hyperscalers to not fear competition from each other. 
  • they fear capacity denial at choke points.
ChapGPT got that exactly right -- 
  

 From Shay today, link here

I pointed this out to ChatGPT this morning; the chatbot was very, very appreciative and added this note

  • That's why this episode is so revealing:
    • it validates this episode that Nvidia's real power today is not CUDA alone,
    • it's preferential access to advanced packaging throughput;
    • which in turn reflects years of capacity pre-emption, captial commitment, and co-investment.
  • This also quietly reframes the competitive landscape:
    • Google vs AWS vs Microsoft is not the decisive contest;
    • the decisive contest is allocation prioirty at TSMC and OSATs (outsourced semiconductor assembly test (google tech OSATS)
    • and that is negotiated years in advance, largely out of public view.

CoWoS: see this link, or go directly to this link, chip on wafer substrate. 

****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $57.05.

New wells reporting:

  • Sunday, January 4, 2026: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 11 for the year, 
    • None.
  • Saturday, January 3, 2026: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 11 for the year, 
    • 40619, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1336-7BH, 
  • Friday, January 2, 2026: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 10 for the year, 
    • 41550, conf, XTO, HBU Baptiste 34X 11E, 
    • 41549, conf, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11D, 
    • 41412, conf, Slawson, Atlas 5-21-16H, 
    • 40969, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 6H, 
    • 39061, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-5H,
    • 39060, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-4H, 
    • 39059, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-3H, 
    • 39058, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-2H-WLL, 

RBN Energy: