Friday, January 2, 2026

TGIF -- January 2, 2026

Locator: 49781B.

Chokepoint: from "Google Empire" -- 

A key insight most people miss, from ChatGPT:

  • hyperscalers to not fear competition from each other. 
  • they fear capacity denial at choke points.
ChapGPT got that exactly right -- 
  
 From Shay today, link here: 

I pointed this out to ChatGPT this morning; the chatbot was very, very appreciative and added this note: 

  • That's why this episode is so revealing:
    • it validates this episode that Nvidia's real power today is not CUDA alone,
    • it's preferential access to advanced packaging throughput;
    • which in turn reflects years of capacity pre-emption, captial commitment, and co-investment.
  • This also quietly reframes the competitive landscape:
    • Google vs AWS vs Microsoft is not the decisive contest;
    • the decisive contest is allocation prioirty at TSMC and OSATs (outsourced semiconductor assembly test (google tech OSATS)
    • and that is negotiated years in advance, largely out of public view.

CoWoS: see this link, or go directly to this link, chip on wafer substrate. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $57.05.

New wells reporting:

  • Sunday, January 4, 2026: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 11 for the year, 
    • None.
  • Saturday, January 3, 2026: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 11 for the year, 
    • 40619, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1336-7BH, 
  • Friday, January 2, 2026: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 10 for the year, 
    • 41550, conf, XTO, HBU Baptiste 34X 11E, 
    • 41549, conf, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11D, 
    • 41412, conf, Slawson, Atlas 5-21-16H, 
    • 40969, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 6H, 
    • 39061, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-5H,
    • 39060, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-4H, 
    • 39059, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-3H, 
    • 39058, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-2H-WLL, 

RBN Energy:

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