Activity In Rattlesnake Point -- March 17, 2024

Locator: 46793B.

We're going to start seeing some great numbers from CLR and Rattlesnake Point.

The maps:

Investing -- Sunday Night -- March 17, 2024

Locator: 46792INV.

WTI: up slightly, still above $81. Last check: $81.31.

Markets: all green, but barely; actually flat and could easily go red.

Headline stories:

• hugely bullish: China kicks off the year on strong note as retail, industrial data tops expectations 
• Goldman Sachs expects BofJ to hike rates Tuesday;
  
• talk of recession is dying down in corporate America;
• inflation isn't going away anytime soon -- but it's not impacting everyone equally;
• Cramer: crude oil showing signs of a breakout as it tops $80;
• Saudi Aramco CEO: energy transition is failing; world should abandon fantasy of phasing out oil; 
• move over gold; copper is now breaking out, according to the charts -- Cramer;
  
• tickers
  
• SCCO: I might have missed this Friday, I forget -- SCCO was up 6% in one day; up $5.82; trading at $103;
• UNP: up 15% in past six months; pays 2%;
• CHRD: incredibly volatile; up 5% in past six months, but just as easily could have been down 5%;
• ORCL: among the seven tech stocks in my "tech" bucket, this is the most fascinating -- not necessarily the best -- simply the most fascinating
• AAPL: speaking of tech, holding above its floor of support ($170); now trading at $172 - $173:

The Bakken, most exciting / interesting:

• CHRD + Enerplus
• NOG

Campaign funding:

• what will be an interesting "wedge issue" to raise campaign funds for DNC? Funds coming in for / against Kamala Harris.

Inflation Watch -- March 17, 2024

Locator: 46791INFLATION.

See my rambling notes of today, here.

Now, an update.

A member of the extended family bought a new pickup truck this weekend.

They've been looking for a new pickup truck for two years. The truck they signed for today was less expensive than two years ago, and even less expensive than last year. The sticker price was in their ballpark but they bargained ... got it for less, as long as they signed today. And they did. 

The monthly payment is "pennies" higher than what they had hoped for. 

Prices are coming down and deals are willing to bargain.

It's hard to believe but it sounds like the monthly payment is 75% of what they had hoped their best deal would have been.

Wendy's: with the app, $1 hamburgers. I bike everywhere and often need to stop to fuel. My go-to is McDonald's. With this promotion, $1-hamburgers, will try Wendy's sometime this week (maybe) -- I haven't been at a Wendy's in years, maybe even in decades.

Sports -- Holy Mackerel --- March 17, 2024

Locator: 46790SPORTS.

Updates

Later, 9:36 p.m. CDT: now that I've has chance to think about what Scottie Scheffler did today and listening to the NBC analysts, one can truly ask whether Scheffler "out-Tigered" Tiger. He set a number of tangible, official records and even more intangible, unofficial records. By tomorrow, there will be any number of sports writers comparing Scheffler to Tiger. If Scheffler stays healthy, he is likely to do better than Tiger -- and Scheffler has an advantage: many of his best competitors -- or would-be competitors -- have gone to the LIV and he won't competing with them one-on-one on the greens. There may be some exceptions, perhaps the Masters.

Original Post 

PGA: Perhaps it doesn't / didn't matter, but the best thing that ever happened for Scottie Scheffler: the LIV. LOL. 

Today, what a day.

• NCAA March Madness selection:
• Men's: on - going
  
• Women's: this evening, 7:00 p.m. CDT
  
• PGA, The Players championship -- Scottie Scheffler wins; perhaps one of the best final days ever
  
• NASCAR: occasionally checking in; not really interested; with 347 of 500 laps to go, I've got plenty of time to get caught up. Apparently the big issue today is not having enough tires; have no idea what this is all about. Aren't tires kind of standard in NASCAR racing? I must have missed something. Update: reason for additional tires, link here. Tires wearing out faster than expected i stage 1 with a number of blowouts. Explanation for increasing wear and tear not given.

North Texas -- Fasting Growing Metropolitan Areas In The US In 2023

Locator: 46789EDUCATION.

In the past three years, my blogging has made me: 

• a much better investor;
• much more pragmatic;
• much less interested in politics, except as an occasional spectator;
• much more exuberant about the potential of Texas; and, 
  
• much more interested in the PGA than NASCAR (a huge flip-flop in just the past few weeks).
  

Link here. 

To put this in perspective, at one time, while living in southern California, sprawling Los Angeles metropolitan area had a population of ten million. 

And, what's most amazing, much of Los Angeles' population growth was due to immigrants that brought little commerce to the area. DFW? The population numbers are actually secondary to what's going on with regard to commerce -- particularly logistics, finance, and tech.

Education In The US -- Some School Districts Got The Memo -- Update -- March 17, 2024

Locator: 46789EDUCATION.

Behind a paywall. 

If you can access, a must-read article. It's in The New Yorker so I'm not sure I can "trust" what I'm reading; not sure if the writer had an agenda, but on first quick read-through, seems well-balanced, reporting a new phenomenon. Perhaps the writer is curious what the liberal / progressive pushback will be. 

I can never decide whether to renew my subscription or not, but articles like this -- why I keep coming back to The New Yorker. 

Bakken Update -- NDIC's Lynn Helms -- March 17, 2024

Locator: 46788B.

Link here.

Oil: link here.

***********************
Older Notes

Link here.

Whiting's Niemitalo Wells Updated -- March 17, 2024

Locator: 46787B.

These wells are tracked here.

The wells:

• 18481, 2,672, Whiting, Niemitalo 12-35H, Sanish, t5/10; cum 637K 5/21; cum 662K 4/22; cum 669K 7/22; cum 694K 1/24;
  
• 17575, 3,260, Whiting, Niemitalo 11-35H, Sanish, t3/09; cum 703K 5/21; cum 715K 4/22; cum 717K 7/22; cum 723K 1/24;
  
• 19502, 2,720, Whiting, Niemitalo 31-15XH, Sanish, t2/11; cum 511K 5/21; cum 513K 6/21; off line 7/21; cum 519K 1/24;
  
• 32624, 891, Whiting, Niemitalo 11-35H-2H, Sanish, t11/19; cum 244K 5/21; cum 307K 4/22; cum 318K 7/22; remains off line 7/22; cum 380K 1/24;
  
• *** 22710, 615, Whiting, Niemitalo 24-13H, Sanish, t1/13; cum 421K 5/21; cum 451K 4/22; 460K 7/22; cum 499K 1/24;
  
• 32124, loc-->loc/NC, Whiting, Niemitalo 31-15-2XH, Sanish, no production data, 7/22; cum --;
  
• 32123, 982, Whiting, Niemitalo 31-15-3XH, Sanish, t--; cum 60K 7/22; cum 195K 1/24; stimulated 3/15/2022; 30 stages; 247,847 bbls fluid; proppant - 10,686,340 lbs;

Inflation Watch -- Rambling While Watching The Players -- March 17, 2024

Locator: 46786ECON.

Note: the following discussion excludes concert tickets (e.g., Taylor Swift) or tattoos.

Inflation? At the end of the day, two things interest me most: meals prepared outside the home, and the price of gasoline on the west coast.

The big problems for Americans this year when it comes to inflation?

Yes:

• single-unit housing
  
• gasoline
• restaurants
• home delivery (Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Uber Eats, Grubhub)
• EVs
• college expenses (always a huge problem, but affects relatively few Americans; can amortize over years)
  

No:

• personal computers, top of the line, models phasing out --
• original price, a couple of years ago: $1199, or thereabouts
• now, easily found, around $750

• personal computers, new, top of the line -- under $1,000 for the M2 and will probably drop more by the end of the summer
• the incredible M3 coming in at same price (possibly lower) than M1 when it was released (I could be wrong, but, if so, not by much)
  

But at the end of the day, the two that will cause most problem for Americans on a daily basis:

• gasoline for those living on the West Coast
• meals prepared outside the home: 

******************************
Elastic Vs Inelastic

Gasoline on the West Coast:

• to some extent, an "elastic" commodity -- classically, gasoline, by some economists, is considered an elastic commodity; but it's hard for me to see gasoline in this group

But, inelastic vs elastic: one can see the problem: 

• milk: as an inelastic commodity, a 1950's metric; no longer as relevant in 2024
• gasoline: other economists consider the price of gasoline inelastic; on the west coast, absolutely
• iPhones: absolutely wrong; very, very elastic; why?
• new models come out each year;
• folks can delay purchase of new iPhone for a year or years
• carriers (ATT, T-Mobile, Verizon) subsidize the cost

The problem with trying to lump commodities into "elastic" or "inelastic" groups:

• how frequently one must buy a particular item
• gasoline, milk: weekly
• iPhones: yearly or even less often; 

The two items that will cause the biggest problem for middle class Americans this year:

• restaurants
• home delivery

Likely to cause huge problem for middle class Americans this year if oil prices surge

• if oil prices surge, it will be interesting to "ask why" and see how analysts explain
  

Back to economics:

• gasoline: inelastic
• Americans will have to pay whatever the price is; no alternative; 80% of driving is required

• restaurants, home delivery: absolutely elastic, except for one thing:
• Americans have become addicted to both -- which, by the way, is in the definition above
  

I am completely unable to explain why gasoline has become so expensive. Everyone has opinions but none convince me. 

• new wrinkle: how much did the implosion of the EV sector contribute?

Happy St Patrick's Day -- 2024

Locator: 46785B.

Update On That BNSF Bridge Across The Wide Missouri -- March 17, 2024

Locator: 46784BNSF.

I missed this earlier.

Link here. 

From the link:

BISMARCK, N.D. — The North Dakota Supreme Court has rebuffed a preservation group’s latest legal effort to block demolition of BNSF’s Bismarck-Mandan Rail Bridge, upholding a lower court’s dismissal of a suit by Friends of the Rail Bridge on technical grounds.

The Fargo Forum reports that the court’s five justices, in a decision released today [Thursday, Feb. 8], unanimously upheld the earlier decision that the Friends group failed to exhaust its administrative remedies before filing its suit.

“It is undisputed that the Appellates did not request a hearing within 30 days (or at any time)” after the state’s Department of Water Resources issued two sovereign land permits — one allowing BNSF to construct its new bridge over the Missouri River, one to subsequently demolish the current bridge, which dates to 1883 — in April 2023, Justice Lisa Fair McEvers wrote in the court’s decision. “Accordingly, no hearing was held, nor was a hearing request denied by DWR.”

A lawyer for the Friends group, Lyle Witham, said in a statement to the newspaper that the group was disappointed ....”

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 17, 2024

Locator: 46783B.

The wells:

• 39722, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HS, Reunion Bay, npd,
• 39642, conf, Oasis, Streamsong 5502 11-17 2B, Squires,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2024	22544	17086
12-2023	21174	14998
11-2023	20056	13201
10-2023	19805	13000

• 39249, conf, Whiting, S-Bar Carmen 5393 34-1 2B, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2024	17182	24203
12-2023	15579	13648
11-2023	18195	17293
10-2023	23422	24834
9-2023	202	201

• 40112, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 6-8H, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
• 39723, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HF, Reunion Bay, npd,
• 40172, conf, Morgan E&P, Baranko 1-28H, Glade,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2024	3829	1943
12-2023	5217	0

• 40111, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 5-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
• 39724, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HF, Reunion Bay, npd,
• 39399, conf, Hess, TI-Ivees-157-94-0601H-5, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2024	12420	15772
12-2023	13730	15555
11-2023	12351	14001
10-2023	19392	22654
9-2023	5643	6339

• 39248, conf, Whiting, S-Bar Karissa 5393-34-1 3T, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2024	11452	13805
12-2023	9598	9158
11-2023	6566	4014
10-2023	9645	8746
9-2023	2163	2328

• 40171, conf, Morgan E&P, Obrigewitch 1-33H, Glade,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2024	6282	2194
12-2023	6603	132

• 40110, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 4-8H, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
• 39644, conf, Oasis, Maridoe 5502 11-17 2B, Squires,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2024	23979	18458
12-2023	29425	20296
11-2023	22588	14704
10-2023	30545	19907
9-2023	4068	2863

• 40109, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 3-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
• 39645, conf, Oasis, Maridoe 5502 11-17 3B, Squires, npd,
• 40053, conf, Oasis, K2 Holdings 5401 11-31 2B, Todd,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2024	16150	11593

• 39899, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3422-1BH, Daneville,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2024	17890	6732
12-2023	25270	6258

• 39898, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3422-2BH, Daneville,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2024	18881	6377
12-2023	24131	6079

• 38098, conf, BR, Stafford 12-34TFH, Blue Buttes, npd,
• 39400, conf, Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-4, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2024	12945	15606
12-2023	14010	16318
11-2023	12316	13297
10-2023	17693	19184
9-2023	10393	13237

• 38099, conf, BR, Stafford 12-34MBH, Blue Buttes, npd,
• 38100, conf, BR, Stafford 11-34TFH, Blue Buttes, npd,

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- Happy St Patrick's Day -- 2024

Locator: 46782B.

Wednesday, March 27, 2024: 137 for the month; 196 for the quarter, 196 for the year
39722, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HS,
39642, conf, Oasis, Streamsong 5502 11-17 2B,
39249, conf, Whiting, S-Bar Carmen 5393 34-1 2B,

Tuesday, March 26, 2024: 134 for the month; 193 for the quarter, 193 for the year}
40112, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 6-8H,
39723, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HF,

Monday, March 25, 2024: 132 for the month; 191 for the quarter, 191 for the year
40172, conf, Morgan E&P, Baranko 1-28H,
40111, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 5-8H1,
39724, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HF,
39399, conf, Hess, TI-Ivees-157-94-0601H-5,
39248, conf, Whiting, S-Bar Karissa 5393-34-1 3T,

Sunday, March 24, 2024: 127 for the month; 186 for the quarter, 186 for the year
40171, conf, Morgan E&P, Obrigewitch 1-33H,
40110, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 4-8H,
39644, conf, Oasis, Maridoe 5502 11-17 2B,

Saturday, March 23, 2024: 124 for the month; 183 for the quarter, 183 for the year
40109, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 3-8H1,

Friday, March 22, 2024: 123 for the month; 182 for the quarter, 182 for the year
39645, conf, Oasis, Maridoe 5502 11-17 3B,

Thursday, March 21, 2024: 122 for the month; 181 for the quarter, 181 for the year
None.

Wednesday, March 20, 2024: 122 for the month; 181 for the quarter, 181 for the year
40053, conf, Oasis, K2 Holdings 5401 11-31 2B,
39899, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3422-1BH,
39898, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3422-2BH,
38098, conf, BR, Stafford 12-34TFH,

Tuesday, March 19, 2024: 118 for the month; 177 for the quarter, 177 for the year
39400, conf, Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-4,

Monday, March 18, 2024: 117 for the month; 176 for the quarter, 176 for the year
38099, conf, BR, Stafford 12-34MBH,

Sunday, March 17, 2024: 116 for the month; 175 for the quarter, 175 for the year
None.

Saturday, March 16, 2024: 116 for the month; 175 for the quarter, 175 for the year
38100, conf, BR, Stafford 11-34TFH,