The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 11/29/16

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Updating The Gadeco 25-36H Well In Epping Oil Field -- November 29, 2016

Previous notes:

December 9, 2014: just noticed that this one went inactive in August, 2014; track the well here.

20398, ~~1,313~~ 825 (corrected), Gadeco, Golden 25-36H, Epping, Bakken, t6/12; cum 140K 9/16; IA as of 8/14; back on status for one month, 12/14, but then off-line all of 1/15; now listed as A, 2/15. Off-line 11/15, and then back on-line 3/16 but only 3 - 6 days each month through 6/16. Two IPs provided; not explained why; t6/12; completed installing new ESP after it quit working 4/16; July 18, 2016; back on status, 2/15;A API 33-105-02135; FracFocus: no report that this well has been fracked. No stimulation reports in the file.

NDIC File No: 20398     API No: 33-105-02135-00-00     CTB No: 120398
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 7/26/2012     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NENW 25-155-99     Footages: 310 FNL 2460 FWL     Latitude: 48.225936     Longitude: -103.356301
Current Operator: GADECO, LLC
Current Well Name: GOLDEN 25-36H

Total Depth: 20689     Field: EPPING
Spud Date(s):  4/12/2011
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11364-20485     Comp: 7/26/2012     Status: AL     Date: 1/9/2015     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 140066     Cum MCF Gas: 247696     Cum Water: 14461
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 6/3/2012     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1313     IP MCF: 20163     IP Water: 1912

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2016	18	2370	2932	2390	4826	4775	43
BAKKEN	8-2016	20	6256	6002	3615	8486	8417	10
BAKKEN	7-2016	16	4256	3831	2212	3638	3478	152
BAKKEN	6-2016	4	489	489	175	700	700	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	3	362	362	0	309	309	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	6	784	784	0	344	104	242
BAKKEN	3-2016	3	503	503	0	522	0	522
BAKKEN	2-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2015	1	0	0	0	11	11	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	6	414	414	0	232	232	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	24	1821	1821	0	3234	3234	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	3313	3313	0	9680	5032	4648
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	2353	2353	0	1947	1947	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	3196	3196	0	2433	2433	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	2719	2719	0	384	384	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	28	3631	3631	0	1389	0	1389
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	3948	3948	0	428	0	428
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	5920	5920	0	1137	0	1137
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	1839	1839	0	920	920	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	1382	1382	0	5678	0	5678
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	1505	1505	625	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	4525	4525	0	5035	0	5035
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	4749	4749	0	4998	0	4998
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	5075	5075	0	4965	0	4965
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	3544	3544	0	1004	0	1004
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	2287	2287	0	3820	0	3820
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	2449	2449	0	3857	0	3857
BAKKEN	12-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2013	9	476	476	0	1271	0	1271
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	2845	2845	0	5655	0	5655
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	2849	2849	0	4445	0	4445
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	2397	2397	0	4336	0	4336
BAKKEN	7-2013	25	2030	2030	0	2780	0	2780
BAKKEN	6-2013	22	1803	1803	0	1575	0	1575
BAKKEN	5-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2013	3	237	237	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2013	31	6987	6987	0	15704	0	15704
BAKKEN	2-2013	28	6337	6337	0	15023	0	15023
BAKKEN	1-2013	31	5583	5583	0	13241	0	13241
BAKKEN	12-2012	31	7216	7216	0	35216	0	35216
BAKKEN	11-2012	30	4195	4195	0	26150	0	26150
BAKKEN	10-2012	30	5509	5509	0	24957	0	24957
BAKKEN	9-2012	25	6807	6807	0	1187	0	1187
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	11576	11576	5444	22168	0	22168
BAKKEN	7-2012	27	3529	3775	0	4011	0	4011
BAKKEN	6-2012	18	0	0	0	0	0	0

Random Update On Amber Renee -- November 29, 2016

For background: this link.

Update: December 3, 2014: the operator wants to re-enter the Amber Renee. Noted on January 27, 2016, to be AB (abandoned). Now TA as of 3/16; sundry form March 8, 2016 -- original well bore plugged; "future use of of the wellbore will be to sidetrack and complete new lateral once commodity prices improve." Operator requests Amber Renee 25-36H be granted TA status for one (1) year.

DAPL Protesters Can Now Move To British Columbia; The Sooner, The Better -- November 29, 2016

We've been waiting for this one. It must be a big story -- the story made The New York Times. Data points:

Trudeau approves the expansion of a pipeline linking the Alberta oil sands to a tanker port in British Columbia
KMI
53-year-old pipeline
critical to Alberta's oil industry
will increase capacity from 300,000 to 890,000 bopd
Trudeau said his decision was based on ... get this ... science

The DAPL protestors can now move to BC.

But it would have been easier for all involved if Trudeau had simply "vetoed" the entire project. Now the Canadians will have to live through five years of litigation and never-ending news stories on the pipeline.

By the way, how is KMI doing? Very green YTD but very red if one extends the time frame any longer. Still pays about 2.3%. Trading near it's 52-week high.

Apache, The Shadows

Saudi Arabia And The Red Queen -- November 29, 2016

Updates

November 30, 2016: see first comment for a couple of additional links --

Saudi production
BHI international rig count, except Iran and China onshore

Original Post

I'm re-posting this. I posted it earlier today as part of an earlier post but the more I thought about it, the more I realized it needed to be a stand-alone post. This really is quite amazing. Look at the degree to which Saudi Arabia increased its drilling ... and yet, production hardly moved at all. There are several obvious story lines here, but they are so obvious, it would be tedious to point them out.

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The Red Queen Effect

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Saudi's crude oil production has remained fairly stable over the past several years.

The EIA data suggests there has been almost no increase in Saudi oil production since 2011. Remember: 2008 and 2009 -- global recession and oil production decreased in response to that, but since 2011, not much of an increase:

Yes, I know the graphic only goes to 2014, but that was the newest one I found. More recent data suggests overall crude oil production has not increased all that much since then.

Now compare that graphic with the graphic John Kemp tweeted today showing how many rigs Saudi Arabia has added since 2011. Almost a quadrupling, or maybe even more than a quadrupling -- it's hard to tell from the graph, and the data from Saudi Arabia is probably somewhat suspect to begin with. Whatever.

One can quibble about the degree to which Saudi Arabia has increased its crude oil production since 2011, but it's pretty easy to see the growth in the number of active rigs Saudi Arabia has had to employ to do that. It appears that there were 20+ active rigs in 2011 and by 2014 there were upwards of 60+ rigs; now there are upwards of 80+ rigs. Whatever CAPEX was for 20 rigs in 2011, I assume the Saudis are spending more money to operate 80+ rigs.

Meanwhile, in North Dakota, crude oil production has decreased (mostly due to wells being taken off-line, choked back or shut-in without being fracked/completed-- DUCs) but not all that much; total North Dakota oil production has remained around the same for the past several years: 1 million bopd.

In that same time period, North Dakota has gone from 200 active rigs to about 35 active rigs.

Lucid Motors -- Arizona -- Sonora, Mexico -- November 29, 2016

A name to note: Lucid Motors. Arizona. Tesla. Sonora, Mexico.

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New Mexico Electric Utility To Seek Another Rate Increase

Link here.

Utility costs are among the most regressive form of taxation.

Data points:

Public Service Co of New Mexico: NM's largest electric provider
needs to recoup the dollars that are being spent on grid improvements and pollution controls at two coal-fired power plants in northwestern New Mexico

Obama's war on coal
New Mexico overwhelmingly votes and re-votes for Obama

money needed to ensure fulfillment of an agreement between PNM, the state and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to shut down two units at the San Juan Generating Station to meet federal haze pollution standards

And more:

In southeastern New Mexico, Xcel Energy also is asking for a rate hike. The Minnesota-based company filed its request in early November, citing nearly $2 billion in new investments that include transmission lines and substations

And finally this, with eyes wide shut:

Environmentalists have been critical of PNM, saying the utility needs to do more to wean itself from fossil fuels. Utility officials have argued that they've invested $270 million in solar energy centers and have been buying wind-generated power since 2003.

Environmentalists must like higher utility bills. A most regressive form of taxation.

Not Even President Yet: Carrier Will Keep Indiana Plant Open -- November 29, 2016

Not even president yet: link here.

Trump and Pence to visit Carrier plant in Indiana on Thursday. Good for them. I hope they do a photo-op every day in their administration where American workers are putting out quality products.

Wow, That's A Surprise -- Active Rigs Jump To 40! -- November 29, 2016

DAPL: I-94 closed from Mandan to Dickinson. Snowfall accumulation from winter storm Blanche so far: Bismarck: 12.5"; Minot: 12"; Dickinson: 11"; and, Williston, 6".

Williston's new -- its second -- $6.3 million fire station dedicated Monday. Wow! When I was growing up in Williston we had a volunteer fire department, and that was it.

Active rigs:

	11/29/2016	11/29/2015	11/29/2014	11/29/2013	11/29/2012
Active Rigs	40	64	185	191	182

Three wells coming off confidential list Wednesday:

27431, 3,163, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23C-14-3H, Eagle Nest, 34 stages, 4.5 million lbs, t6/16; cum 6K over 10 days;
32219, SI/NC, XTO, Little Pete Federal 41X-3H, Bear Creek, no production data,
32380, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust 21X-3A, Bear Creek, no production data,

Four permits approved:

Operators: Petroshale (3), Whiting
Fields: Antelope (McKenzie), Moccasin Creek (Dunn)
Comments:

And that's it:

no producing wells (DUCs) completed
no permits renewed

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Speaking Of Rigs

Zeits at SeekingAlpha:

Schlumberger has deployed two prototypes of its “rig of the future” in the U.S. market
As many as five prototypes may be working in the U.S. and internationally by year-end
“Rig of the future” is a strategic initiative for Schlumberger and over time may become a disruptive service offering creating a serious competitive threat to the established drilling contractors

But it's a must-see photograph at the link.

Shock! UK Grid Loses Half Its Power From Link To France -- November 29, 2016

From The Financial Times. Data points:

UK gets a significant amount of electricity from the continent
four of eight cables running between Folkestone and Calais were danaged during Storm Angus
the interconnector generally provides 2 gigawatt capacity to the UK
the damage means the connector would operate at half its 2 gigawatt capacitiyth
this is equivalent to losing one nuclear reactor
solution: National Grid will have to call on expensive back-up generating capacity -- much of it from coal-fired power stations
the interconnector damage is also bad news for France: France is facing its own supply tightness this winter because of outages at several nuclear reactors undergoing safety checks
France is usually a net exporter of electricity to the UK but in recent weeks the flow has been going in the opposite direction more frequently than usual
the other cables go to Netherlands, Ireland, Northern Ireland
another cable under construction to Norway, which will be the longest in the world
cable to Iceland has also been proposed

Trump Not Even In Office Yet But US Consumer Confidence At 9-Year High; US GDP Growth Revised Up To Strongest Expansion In Two Years -- WSJ -- November 29, 2016

US consumer confidence at 9-year high. Bloomberg. Data points:

highest level since 2007: Obama sworn in, January, 2009 -- wow, wow, wow
consumer confident increased to 107.1 from a revised 100.8
forecast was 101.5
present conditions gauge rose to 130.3, highest since July, 2007, from 123.1

Now that is something President-elect Trump should tweet tomorrow morning at 5:00 a.m. Central Time, just as MSNBC "Morning Joe" is coming on the air.

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Healthy Upward Revision In US 3Q16 GDP

Link here. Data points:

3Q16 revised upward to 3.2%
strongest growth in two years
analysts' forecast: 3.0% from initial estimate of 2.9%
accelerated from the 2Q16 "more modest" 1.4%

Meanwhile, looking ahead, GDP Now for 4Q16: 3.6%, unchanged from previous forecast.

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US Home Prices Set New Record Amid Healthy Sales

US News. Data links:

home prices slightly above the peak it set in July, 2006
prices rose 5.5% from a year earlier (September data)
the milestone comes after almost four years of gains
largest gains: Seattle, Portland, Denver --
those gains in Seattle, Portland, Denver? Those cities have the distinction of reporting the largest annual gains for the eighth straight month
cities where home prices still remain far below their pre-recession peaks: Miami, Tampa, Phoenix, and Las Vegas

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The Market

There have been nine trading days since the Trump election (one was a half day). To the best of my knowledge there were only two down days: one was trivial (down about 30 points) and the other not much worse (about 60 points down).

It looks like we might have another "up" day on the market today.

Dow 30:

New highs: 99, including Aetna, Boeing, Humana, MDU.

New lows: 20.

US LNG Exports Continue To Surge -- November 29, 2016

Over at "The Big Stories," under US Energy Revolution, "LNG Exports." Today, this graphic from EIA:

The Bakken Boom began in 2000 in Montana, and then in 2007 in North Dakota. The boom hit its stride in 2010 but somewhere between 2014 and 2015, LNG exports really began to jump.

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The Red Queen Effect

Texas Is Flipping From A Net Producer To A Net Demand Region. Say What? -- RBN Energy -- November 29, 2016

Shopping list: see first comment -- you, too, can help the DAPL protesters ... supplies needed. It may take a moment to load, but it's there.

DAPL weather: no travel advised in several counties; Bismarck and Mandan schools closed. Many schools across western North Dakota closed or delayed openings. Bismarck is north of Standing Rock Reservations. No travel is advised across several western counties including Mountrail County. It seems the area around Minot and Bismarck are the worst hit. Conditions have worsened:

Yesterday, it was reported that ND Highway 1806 into the reservation was still blocked/closed; ND Highway 6 was suggested as the alternate. Today, ND Highway 6 is in worse condition with scattered ice. Yellow in the map above: ice and compacted snow.

For newbies: this is NOT what the protest camp looks like today -- maybe The New York Times will send a photo-journalist out to the camp and get a current photo:

Dickinson got 10 inches of snow on Monday.

6:00 a.m. surprise: after reading about disarray in OPEC over upcoming meeting; and, the downward trend in the price oil, I would have thought Dow 30 futures to be trending down. In fact, Dow 30 futures went from negative three to positive five during the night and now up 22 points in futures.

6:42 a.m. surprise: doesn't even make MSNBC "Morning Joe" news or Drudge report, and not the first story over in Los Angeles Times: 70 killed when plane carrying Brazilian soccer team crashes. May have run out of fuel.

World Chess Championship: at end of 12 matches, it ends in a tie. Now, we begin with the tie-breakers on Wednesday: rapid games and the blitz.

Costlier sand: shale rebound starts with costlier grains of sand.

sand prices have rise roughly 25% to about $24/ton -- first sign that turnaround has begun
spending by drillers in the lower 48 states are not forecast to be $1 billion higher than analysts expected in the final three months of 2016; now up to $13-- second sign that turnaround has begun
best rigs: lease rates are up as much as $5,000 / day -- third sign that turnaround has begun
sand volume: 120 million tons of sand through 2018, for both oil and gas wells; up from a previous forecast of 95 million tons
service companies may increase prices by 10% / year through 2021

This doesn't look like an industry in distress.

President Obama ceded the Arctic to others. Norway and Russia step up cooperation in Arctic hunt for oil.

will share new seismic data from the Arctic Barents Sea border region
will hold discussions on how to split potential future discoveries that straddle the border
these are being called the Arctic Unitisation Talks -- Norway and Russia

Iraq: Shell considering selling its Iraq oil assets

as part of its global $30 billion asset disposal program
seeking to slim down after its $54 billion acquisition of BG group earlier this year (this deal transformed Shell into the world's top LNG trrader)
with slump in oil prices, Shell wants to concentrate on LNG and deepwater oil production in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico

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Active rigs:

	11/29/2016	11/29/2015	11/29/2014	11/29/2013	11/29/2012
Active Rigs	37	64	185	191	182

RBN Energy: Texas is flipping from a net producer to a net demand region. What?

The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

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