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Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Updating The Gadeco 25-36H Well In Epping Oil Field -- November 29, 2016

Previous notes:
December 9, 2014: just noticed that this one went inactive in August, 2014; track the well here.
20398, 1,313 825 (corrected), Gadeco, Golden 25-36H, Epping, Bakken, t6/12; cum 140K 9/16; IA as of 8/14; back on status for one month, 12/14, but then off-line all of 1/15; now listed as A, 2/15. Off-line 11/15, and then back on-line 3/16 but only 3 - 6 days each month through 6/16. Two IPs provided; not explained why; t6/12; completed installing new ESP after it quit working 4/16; July 18, 2016; back on status, 2/15;A API 33-105-02135; FracFocus: no report that this well has been fracked. No stimulation reports in the file.
NDIC File No: 20398     API No: 33-105-02135-00-00     CTB No: 120398
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 7/26/2012     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NENW 25-155-99     Footages: 310 FNL 2460 FWL     Latitude: 48.225936     Longitude: -103.356301
Current Operator: GADECO, LLC
Current Well Name: GOLDEN 25-36H 
Total Depth: 20689     Field: EPPING
Spud Date(s):  4/12/2011 
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11364-20485     Comp: 7/26/2012     Status: AL     Date: 1/9/2015     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 140066     Cum MCF Gas: 247696     Cum Water: 14461
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 6/3/2012     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1313     IP MCF: 20163     IP Water: 1912
 
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2016182370293223904826477543
BAKKEN8-2016206256600236158486841710
BAKKEN7-20161642563831221236383478152
BAKKEN6-201644894891757007000
BAKKEN5-2016336236203093090
BAKKEN4-201667847840344104242
BAKKEN3-2016350350305220522
BAKKEN2-20160000000
BAKKEN1-20160000000
BAKKEN12-2015100011110
BAKKEN11-2015641441402322320
BAKKEN10-201524182118210323432340
BAKKEN9-201530331333130968050324648
BAKKEN8-201531235323530194719470
BAKKEN7-201531319631960243324330
BAKKEN6-2015302719271903843840
BAKKEN5-201528363136310138901389
BAKKEN4-2015303948394804280428
BAKKEN3-201531592059200113701137
BAKKEN2-2015281839183909209200
BAKKEN1-20150000000
BAKKEN12-201431138213820567805678
BAKKEN11-201430000000
BAKKEN10-201431000000
BAKKEN9-201430000000
BAKKEN8-201431000000
BAKKEN7-20143115051505625000
BAKKEN6-201430452545250503505035
BAKKEN5-201431474947490499804998
BAKKEN4-201430507550750496504965
BAKKEN3-201431354435440100401004
BAKKEN2-201428228722870382003820
BAKKEN1-201431244924490385703857
BAKKEN12-20130000000
BAKKEN11-201394764760127101271
BAKKEN10-201331284528450565505655
BAKKEN9-201330284928490444504445
BAKKEN8-201331239723970433604336
BAKKEN7-201325203020300278002780
BAKKEN6-201322180318030157501575
BAKKEN5-20130000000
BAKKEN4-201332372370000
BAKKEN3-20133169876987015704015704
BAKKEN2-20132863376337015023015023
BAKKEN1-20133155835583013241013241
BAKKEN12-20123172167216035216035216
BAKKEN11-20123041954195026150026150
BAKKEN10-20123055095509024957024957
BAKKEN9-201225680768070118701187
BAKKEN8-2012311157611576544422168022168
BAKKEN7-201227352937750401104011
BAKKEN6-201218000000
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Random Update On Amber Renee -- November 29, 2016

For background: this link.

Update: December 3, 2014: the operator wants to re-enter the Amber Renee. Noted on January 27, 2016, to be AB (abandoned). Now TA as of 3/16; sundry form March 8, 2016 -- original well bore plugged; "future use of of the wellbore will be to sidetrack and complete new lateral once commodity prices improve." Operator requests Amber Renee 25-36H be granted TA status for one (1) year.
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DAPL Protesters Can Now Move To British Columbia; The Sooner, The Better -- November 29, 2016

We've been waiting for this one. It must be a big story -- the story made The New York Times. Data points:
  • Trudeau approves the expansion of a pipeline linking the Alberta oil sands to a tanker port in British Columbia
  • KMI
  • 53-year-old pipeline
  • critical to Alberta's oil industry
  • will increase capacity from 300,000 to 890,000 bopd
  • Trudeau said his decision was based on ... get this ... science
The DAPL protestors can now move to BC.

But it would have been easier for all involved if Trudeau had simply "vetoed" the entire project.  Now the Canadians will have to live through five years of litigation and never-ending news stories on the pipeline.

By the way, how is KMI doing? Very green YTD but very red if one extends the time frame any longer. Still pays about 2.3%. Trading near it's 52-week high.

Apache, The Shadows
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Saudi Arabia And The Red Queen -- November 29, 2016

Updates

November 30, 2016: see first comment for a couple of additional links --
Original Post
 
I'm re-posting this. I posted it earlier today as part of an earlier post but the more I thought about it, the more I realized it needed to be a stand-alone post. This really is quite amazing. Look at the degree to which Saudi Arabia increased its drilling ... and yet, production hardly moved at all. There are several obvious story lines here, but they are so obvious, it would be tedious to point them out. 
*******************************
The Red Queen Effect

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Saudi's crude oil production has remained fairly stable over the past several years.

The EIA data suggests there has been almost no increase in Saudi oil production since 2011. Remember: 2008 and 2009 -- global recession and oil production decreased in response to that, but since 2011, not much of an increase:

Yes, I know the graphic only goes to 2014, but that was the newest one I found. More recent data suggests overall crude oil production has not increased all that much since then.

Now compare that graphic with the graphic John Kemp tweeted today showing how many rigs Saudi Arabia has added since 2011. Almost a quadrupling, or maybe even more than a quadrupling -- it's hard to tell from the graph, and the data from Saudi Arabia is probably somewhat suspect to begin with. Whatever.


One can quibble about the degree to which Saudi Arabia has increased its crude oil production since 2011, but it's pretty easy to see the growth in the number of active rigs Saudi Arabia has had to employ to do that. It appears that there were 20+ active rigs in 2011 and by 2014 there were upwards of 60+ rigs; now there are upwards of 80+ rigs. Whatever CAPEX was for 20 rigs in 2011, I assume the Saudis are spending more money to operate 80+ rigs.

Meanwhile, in North Dakota, crude oil production has decreased (mostly due to wells being taken off-line, choked back or shut-in without being fracked/completed-- DUCs) but not all that much; total North Dakota oil production has remained around the same for the past several years: 1 million bopd.

In that same time period, North Dakota has gone from 200 active rigs to about 35 active rigs.
at No comments:

Lucid Motors -- Arizona -- Sonora, Mexico -- November 29, 2016

A name to note: Lucid Motors. Arizona. Tesla. Sonora, Mexico.

***********************
New Mexico Electric Utility To Seek Another Rate Increase

Link here.  

Utility costs are among the most regressive form of taxation.

Data points:
  • Public Service Co of New Mexico: NM's largest electric provider
  • needs to recoup the dollars that are being spent on grid improvements and pollution controls at two coal-fired power plants in northwestern New Mexico
    • Obama's war on coal
    • New Mexico overwhelmingly votes and re-votes for Obama
  • money needed to ensure fulfillment of an agreement between PNM, the state and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to shut down two units at the San Juan Generating Station to meet federal haze pollution standards
And more:
In southeastern New Mexico, Xcel Energy also is asking for a rate hike. The Minnesota-based company filed its request in early November, citing nearly $2 billion in new investments that include transmission lines and substations
And finally this, with eyes wide shut:
Environmentalists have been critical of PNM, saying the utility needs to do more to wean itself from fossil fuels. Utility officials have argued that they've invested $270 million in solar energy centers and have been buying wind-generated power since 2003.
Environmentalists must like higher utility bills. A most regressive form of taxation. 
 
at No comments:

Not Even President Yet: Carrier Will Keep Indiana Plant Open -- November 29, 2016

Not even president yet: link here.

Trump and Pence to visit Carrier plant in Indiana on Thursday.  Good for them. I hope they do a photo-op every day in their administration where American workers are putting out quality products.
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Wow, That's A Surprise -- Active Rigs Jump To 40! -- November 29, 2016

DAPL: I-94 closed from Mandan to Dickinson. Snowfall accumulation from winter storm Blanche so far: Bismarck: 12.5"; Minot: 12"; Dickinson: 11"; and, Williston, 6".

Williston's new -- its second -- $6.3 million fire station dedicated Monday. Wow! When I was growing up in Williston we had a volunteer fire department, and that was it.

Active rigs:


11/29/201611/29/201511/29/201411/29/201311/29/2012
Active Rigs4064185191182

Three wells coming off confidential list Wednesday:
  • 27431, 3,163, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23C-14-3H, Eagle Nest, 34 stages, 4.5 million lbs, t6/16; cum 6K over 10 days;
  • 32219, SI/NC, XTO, Little Pete Federal 41X-3H, Bear Creek, no production data,
  • 32380, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust 21X-3A, Bear Creek, no production data,
Four permits approved:
  • Operators: Petroshale (3), Whiting
  • Fields: Antelope (McKenzie), Moccasin Creek (Dunn)
  • Comments:
And that's it:
  • no producing wells (DUCs) completed
  • no permits renewed
***********************************
Speaking Of Rigs

Zeits at SeekingAlpha:
  • Schlumberger has deployed two prototypes of its “rig of the future” in the U.S. market
  • As many as five prototypes may be working in the U.S. and internationally by year-end
  • “Rig of the future” is a strategic initiative for Schlumberger and over time may become a disruptive service offering creating a serious competitive threat to the established drilling contractors
But it's a must-see photograph at the link. 
at No comments:

Shock! UK Grid Loses Half Its Power From Link To France -- November 29, 2016

From The Financial Times. Data points:
  • UK gets a significant amount of electricity from the continent
  • four of eight cables running between Folkestone and Calais were danaged during Storm Angus
  • the interconnector generally provides 2 gigawatt capacity to the UK
  • the damage means the connector would operate at half its 2 gigawatt capacitiyth
  • this is equivalent to losing one nuclear reactor
  • solution: National Grid will have to call on expensive back-up generating capacity -- much of it from coal-fired power stations
  • the interconnector damage is also bad news for France: France is facing its own supply tightness this winter because of outages at several nuclear reactors undergoing safety checks
  • France is  usually a net exporter of electricity to the UK but in recent weeks the flow has been going in the opposite direction more frequently than usual
  • the other cables go to Netherlands, Ireland, Northern Ireland
  • another cable under construction to Norway, which will be the longest in the world
  • cable to Iceland has also been proposed
at No comments:

Trump Not Even In Office Yet But US Consumer Confidence At 9-Year High; US GDP Growth Revised Up To Strongest Expansion In Two Years -- WSJ -- November 29, 2016

US consumer confidence at 9-year high. Bloomberg.  Data points:
  • highest level since 2007: Obama sworn in, January, 2009 -- wow, wow, wow
  • consumer confident increased to 107.1 from a revised 100.8
  • forecast was 101.5
  •  present conditions gauge rose to 130.3, highest since July, 2007, from 123.1
Now that is something President-elect Trump should tweet tomorrow morning at 5:00 a.m. Central Time, just as MSNBC "Morning Joe" is coming on the air.

************************************
Healthy Upward Revision In US 3Q16 GDP

Link here. Data points:
  • 3Q16 revised upward to 3.2%
  • strongest growth in two years
  • analysts' forecast: 3.0% from initial estimate of 2.9%
  • accelerated from the 2Q16 "more modest" 1.4%
Meanwhile, looking ahead, GDP Now for 4Q16: 3.6%, unchanged from previous forecast.

****************************
US Home Prices Set New Record Amid Healthy Sales

US News. Data links:
  • home prices slightly above the peak it set in July, 2006 
  • prices rose 5.5% from a year earlier (September data)
  • the milestone comes after almost four years of gains
  • largest gains: Seattle, Portland, Denver -- 
  • those gains in Seattle, Portland, Denver? Those cities have the distinction of reporting the largest annual gains for the eighth straight month
  • cities where home prices still remain far below their pre-recession peaks: Miami, Tampa, Phoenix, and Las Vegas 
****************************************
The Market

There have been nine trading days since the Trump election (one was a half day). To the best of my knowledge there were only two down days: one was trivial (down about 30 points) and the other not much worse (about 60 points down).

It looks like we might have another "up" day on the market today.

Dow 30:
  • New highs: 99, including Aetna, Boeing, Humana, MDU.
  • New lows: 20.
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US LNG Exports Continue To Surge -- November 29, 2016

Over at "The Big Stories," under US Energy Revolution, "LNG Exports." Today, this graphic from EIA:






The Bakken Boom began in 2000 in Montana, and then in 2007 in North Dakota. The boom hit its stride in 2010 but somewhere between 2014 and 2015, LNG exports really began to jump.

*******************************
The Red Queen Effect

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Saudi's crude oil production has remained fairly stable over the past several years.

The EIA data suggests there has been almost no increase in Saudi oil production since 2011. Remember: 2008 and 2009 -- global recession and oil production decreased in response to that, but since 2011, not much of an increase:

Yes, I know the graphic only goes to 2014, but that was the newest one I found. More recent data suggests overall crude oil production has not increased all that much since then.

Now compare that graphic with the graphic John Kemp tweeted today showing how many rigs Saudi Arabia has added since 2011. Almost a quadrupling, or maybe even more than a quadrupling -- it's hard to tell from the graph, and the data from Saudi Arabia is probably somewhat suspect to begin with. Whatever.


One can quibble about the degree to which Saudi Arabia has increased its crude oil production since 2011, but it's pretty easy to see the growth in the number of active rigs Saudi Arabia has had to employ to do that. It appears that there were 20+ active rigs in 2011 and by 2014 there were upwards of 60+ rigs; now there are upwards of 80+ rigs. Whatever CAPEX was for 20 rigs in 2011, I assume the Saudis are spending more money to operate 80+ rigs.

Meanwhile, in North Dakota, crude oil production has decreased (mostly due to wells being taken off-line, choked back or shut-in without being fracked/completed-- DUCs) but not all that much; total North Dakota oil production has remained around the same for the past several years: 1 million bopd.

In that same time period, North Dakota has gone from 200 active rigs to about 35 active rigs.

Maybe this should be the lead story, instead of the natural gas story. Whatever.
at No comments:

Texas Is Flipping From A Net Producer To A Net Demand Region. Say What? -- RBN Energy -- November 29, 2016

Shopping list: see first comment -- you, too, can help the DAPL protesters ... supplies needed. It may take a moment to load, but it's there.

DAPL weather: no travel advised in several counties; Bismarck and Mandan schools closed. Many schools across western North Dakota closed or delayed openings. Bismarck is north of Standing Rock Reservations. No travel is advised across several western counties including Mountrail County. It seems the area around Minot and Bismarck are the worst hit. Conditions have worsened:


Yesterday, it was reported that ND Highway 1806 into the reservation was still blocked/closed; ND Highway 6 was suggested as the alternate. Today, ND Highway 6 is in worse condition with scattered ice. Yellow in the map above: ice and compacted snow.

For newbies: this is NOT what the protest camp looks like today -- maybe The New York Times will send a photo-journalist out to the camp and get a current photo:

Dickinson got 10 inches of snow on Monday.

6:00 a.m. surprise: after reading about disarray in OPEC over upcoming meeting; and, the downward trend in the price oil, I would have thought Dow 30 futures to be trending down. In fact, Dow 30 futures went from negative three to positive five during the night and now up 22 points in futures.

6:42 a.m. surprise: doesn't even make MSNBC "Morning Joe" news or Drudge report, and not the first story over in Los Angeles Times: 70 killed when plane carrying Brazilian soccer team crashes. May have run out of fuel. 

World Chess Championship: at end of 12 matches, it ends in a tie. Now, we begin with the tie-breakers on Wednesday: rapid games and the blitz.

Costlier sand: shale rebound starts with costlier grains of sand.
  • sand prices have rise roughly 25% to about $24/ton -- first sign that turnaround has begun
  • spending by drillers in the lower 48 states are not forecast to be $1 billion higher than analysts expected in the final three months of 2016; now up to $13-- second sign that turnaround has begun
  • best rigs: lease rates are up as much as $5,000 / day -- third sign that turnaround has begun
  • sand volume: 120 million tons of sand through 2018, for both oil and gas wells; up from a previous forecast of 95 million tons 
  • service companies may increase prices by 10% / year through 2021
This doesn't look like an industry in distress.

President Obama ceded the Arctic to others. Norway and Russia step up cooperation in Arctic hunt for oil.
  • will share new seismic data from the Arctic Barents Sea border region
  • will hold discussions on how to split potential future discoveries that straddle the border
  • these are being called the Arctic Unitisation Talks -- Norway and Russia
Iraq: Shell considering selling its Iraq oil assets
  • as part of its global $30 billion asset disposal program
  • seeking to slim down after its $54 billion acquisition of BG group earlier this year (this deal transformed Shell into the world's top LNG trrader)
  • with slump in oil prices, Shell wants to concentrate on LNG and deepwater oil production in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico
*********************************************

Active rigs:


11/29/201611/29/201511/29/201411/29/201311/29/2012
Active Rigs3764185191182

RBN Energy: Texas is flipping from a net producer to a net demand region. What?
at No comments: