Parent-Child Wells In The Bakken -- March 5, 2019

When looking at the wells on this page, see The WSJ article regarding "parent-children wells.

Shale companies, adding ever more wells, threaten future of U.S. oil boom. Newer wells drilled close to older wells are generally pumping less oil and gas and could hurt output, leading frackers to cut back on the number of sites planned and trim overall production forecasts.

Re-posting:

A closer look at that MRO Sibyl USA Three Forks well mentioned in NOG's January, 2019, corporate presentation:

• 33943, 6,396, MRO, Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 241K 1/19; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	41337	41813	25992	81403	0	78934
BAKKEN	12-2018	29	27195	27567	19853	42322	0	40661
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	54031	53945	34523	80450	0	77300
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	88495	87749	69016	118686	0	113630
BAKKEN	9-2018	10	29474	28988	20942	36373	0	34709

Neighboring well, was a dying "parent" well by 2014, then along with the "children" wells, it was re-fracked in 2018:

• 17568, 539/5,645, MRO, Charles Shobe-USA 44-19H, Reunion Bay, F, 5.7 million gallons water; 45 stages, 5.5 million lbs (7/16/18); original frack was a one-stage open hole frack, one-half million lbs, t2/09; cum 343K 1/19; so, for the price of a small frack, got a "brand new well" with an IP of 5,645;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	36180	36165	10789	50286	0	47817
BAKKEN	12-2018	18	31554	31646	10902	40476	0	38220
BAKKEN	11-2018	15	25449	25339	10356	30664	0	29203
BAKKEN	10-2018	18	38867	39989	24669	47393	0	45170
BAKKEN	9-2018	12	29459	28021	32833	32716	0	32596
BAKKEN	8-2018	1	0	171	4	98	0	98
BAKKEN	7-2018	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	71	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	23	519	517	54	620	356	72
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	708	728	70	897	256	394
BAKKEN	2-2018	22	623	645	64	755	34	51

Not a neighbor, but in the same general area, not refracked; last fracked in 2014, as an open hole frack with one-half million lbs sand:

• 16686, 379, MRO, Shobe 24-20H, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 415K 1/19; 

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	11509	11536	14791	14162	6881	6621
BAKKEN	12-2018	30	13796	13667	28932	14844	8120	5927
BAKKEN	11-2018	1	302	300	761	115	29	69
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	2	0	370	185	251	0	250
BAKKEN	7-2018	27	2625	2582	568	3686	3315	65
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	3032	3166	656	4208	3823	33
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	3093	3179	723	4270	1940	1969
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	3331	3229	734	4524	3960	23

NOG: January, 2019 -- Corporate Presentation

In anticipation of NOG's earnings, 4Q18, a look at NOG's corporate presentation, January, 2019.

Reminder for newbies: NOG is a non-operator in the Bakken.

• acres
• net acres: 151,978 net acres
• 95% held, 97% held in North Dakota
• production:
• 4Q18: mid-point guidance -- 35,500 boepd
• 3Q18: 26,708 boepd; 84% crude oil
• big picture
• enterprise value: $1.920 million
• market cap: $1.080 billion
• wells
• well costs (AFE): $8.0 million
• EURs
• 2018 wells tracking over a 1,000 Mboe EUR type curve
• high quality wells, selected -- name of well, operator, peak 30 (boepd), middle Bakken wells:
• Liberty 45-1311H, EOG, 1,568
• Gabriel 1-36-25H, Slawson, 1,376
• Wold Federal 44-7-4XH, Whiting
• Shorty 4-9F 3H, Equinor, 1,132
• Wiley 8-25H, CLR, 2.289
• EN-Sorenson B-LE-155-94-3526H-1, Hess, 1,448
• Lars 14-8H, MRO, 1,648
• Orvis State 150-99-21-16-5H, Newfield, 2,278
• Faye 1C MBH, BR, 1,421
• Crane Federal 5300 34-24-12B, 1,327
• high quality wells, selected -- name of well, operator, peak 30 (boepd), Three Forks wells:
• Liberty 114-1311H, EOG, 1,476
• Gabriel 5-36-25TFH, Slawson, 1,355
• Wold Federal 44-7-1TFH, Whiting, 1,745
• Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, MRO, 3,746
• Burr Federal 8-26H2, CLR, 1,013
• top operators
• Slawson: 15.1%
• CLR: 14.2%
• Whiting: 11.9%
• Hess: 8.0%
• COP: 7.4%
• Oasis: 5.0%
• EOG: 4.9%
• XTO: 4.7%
• Equinor: 3.7%
• Petro-Hunt: 2.9%
• MRO: 2.6%

A closer look at that MRO Sibyl USA Three Forks well:

• 33943, 6,396, MRO, Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 241K 1/19; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	41337	41813	25992	81403	0	78934
BAKKEN	12-2018	29	27195	27567	19853	42322	0	40661
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	54031	53945	34523	80450	0	77300
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	88495	87749	69016	118686	0	113630
BAKKEN	9-2018	10	29474	28988	20942	36373	0	34709

Neighboring well, was a dying well by 2014, then along with the "children" wells, it was re-fracked in 2018:

• 17568, 539/5,645, MRO, Charles Shobe-USA 44-19H, Reunion Bay, F, 5.7 million gallons water; 45 stages, 5.5 million lbs (7/16/18); original frack was a one-stage open hole frack, one-half million lbs, t2/09; cum 343K 1/19; so, for the price of a small frack, got a "brand new well" with an IP of 5,645;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	36180	36165	10789	50286	0	47817
BAKKEN	12-2018	18	31554	31646	10902	40476	0	38220
BAKKEN	11-2018	15	25449	25339	10356	30664	0	29203
BAKKEN	10-2018	18	38867	39989	24669	47393	0	45170
BAKKEN	9-2018	12	29459	28021	32833	32716	0	32596
BAKKEN	8-2018	1	0	171	4	98	0	98
BAKKEN	7-2018	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	71	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	23	519	517	54	620	356	72
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	708	728	70	897	256	394
BAKKEN	2-2018	22	623	645	64	755	34	51

Not a neighbor, but in the same general area, not refracked; last fracked in 2014, as an open hole frack with one-half million lbs sand:

• 16686, 379, MRO, Shobe 24-20H, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 415K 1/19; 

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	11509	11536	14791	14162	6881	6621
BAKKEN	12-2018	30	13796	13667	28932	14844	8120	5927
BAKKEN	11-2018	1	302	300	761	115	29	69
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	2	0	370	185	251	0	250
BAKKEN	7-2018	27	2625	2582	568	3686	3315	65
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	3032	3166	656	4208	3823	33
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	3093	3179	723	4270	1940	1969
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	3331	3229	734	4524	3960	23

 

API With Surprise: Huge Crude Oil Build -- Over 7 Million Bbls -- March 5, 2019 -- WTI Volatile But Holds Steady

WTI was volatile today but finished flat despite huge crude oil build reported by API. Data points:
another "surprise" build -- most over-used word by economists and analysts: "surprise"

• API: reported a large "surprise" build of 7.29 million bbls
• forecast: a build of 388,000 bbls (note the fake precision); 
• A DOT-111 tank car carries upwards of 830 bbls
• at 8,000 bbls we're talking ten tank cars; a unit train is 110 tank cars
• see write-up at ZeroHedge

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. Feel free to fact check.

Chesto Over At The Boston Globe; Occasional-Cortex Feeling Their Pain -- Already Backpedaling On Amazon; Regrets Being Responsible For Costing NYC 25,000 Jobs -- March 5, 2019

From Chesto over The Boston Globe:

• Dominion may close Millstone nuclear plant for good a few years from now; long, long story; located in Connecticut; New England's biggest power plant might be forced to close; can't be run economically; the plant plays a role in curbing carbon emissions without requiring an expensive new project to be built; a key component of New England's electricity grid; emergency of cheap natural gas has made it harder for nuclear to compete; competitive pressures prompted Entergy to shut its Vermont Yankee nuke, and its Pilgram reactor in Plymouth goes off line this spring; Exelon was able to "save" Mystic; Exelon could reap as much as $200 million in payments from New England ratepayers annually, over a two-year period that ends in 2024; the wave of plant closures has prompted ISO New England to rethink the way it handles its electricity markets; 
• Purdue Pharma bankruptcy: the company behind OxyContin is preparing a bankruptcy filing as it seeks to limit its liabilities from hundreds of lawsuits; I think I've blogged about Purdue before;
• Dreyfus mutual funds with $63 billion in assets will be renamed as BNY Mellon funds; BNY Mellon will keep the Dreyfus name for its money market funds;
• Instant Pot: the make of Pyrex and Corning War has acquired Instant Pot; Pyrex parent Corelle Brands said it plans to merge with Instant Brands, the Canadian producer of electric multicookers such as the Instant Pot that have taken the Internet by storm.
• Movers and shakers are talking about the 10-year bull market. Nothing lasts forever. Talk of recession no time soon, but possible in 2020; labor shortage hurting growth in Boston; Massachusetts tax receipts lagging but not yet a big deal; the state has $2 billion in its rainy day fund, thanks in part to a capital gains-related windfall last year.
• Chesto noted the tumble that GE took today, back below $10/share; industrial division will have negative cash flow in 2019;
• Target: the retail is on a roll -- sales growth of 5% at stores open at least a year, its strongest same-store growth since 2005; online sales surged 36%; CEO says he is not afraid of Amazon; probably a better way to say it: "we respect Amazon, but we are not afraid of Amazon."

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Odds and Ends

Over at Powerline, I completely missed this one. I read it quickly; I may have misread it, but apparently the US Supreme Court says that a baker can refuse to bake a cake for anyone he/she chooses. 

Also at Powerline, the folly of solar energy -- a Minnesota tale. Hardly worth posting; preaching to the choir.

From one of the best environmental blogs on the net, Montana:

... and Montana, 79 degrees colder than 1910. I can't make this stuff up.

The wildlife photos at this site are simply incredible. Take some time to explore.

Over at ZeroHedge, it is being reported that Occasional-Cortex is backpedaling; says she now regrets costing NYC 25,000 jobs. I think folks forget how hard Long Island City/NYC worked to attract Amazon, and all the celebrating when NYC was announced as the winner. And then the -- to coin a phrase used by another pundit -- pompous little twit scuttled the deal. If her constituents elect her to a second term, they get what they deserve, or is it, they deserve what they get?

We will quit here but the non-Bakken featured blogs linked at the sidebar at the right are simply some of the best blogs out there.

Random Look At MRO Wells Recently Fracked -- March 5, 2019

When I see a profile like this, it appears to me that neighboring wells have been fracked. Production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	6	1334	1356	4832	1309	0	1224
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	14	1189	1702	288	1385	606	638
BAKKEN	9-2018	28	2271	2321	455	2689	2355	3

Note: prior to coming off line, this was producing about 2,500 bbls/month. When it came back on line, it produced 1,334 bbls in the first six days. Also, below, note the total oil produced so far, over half a million bbls.

The well:

• 18514, 672, MRO, Howard USA 11-1H, Reunion Bay, t6/10; cum 510K 1/19; 

Now, about those neighboring wells:

The other wells in the graphic:

• 33665, conf, MRO, WIlkinson USA 11-1H, 33-061-04062, Reunion Bay, 24K produced in first month (unknown # of days); fracked 12/20/18 - 12/29/18; 8.1 million gallons of water;
• 33666, conf, MRO, Deserly USA 11-1TFH, 33-061-04063, Reunion Bay, minimal production, but producing; fracked 12/20/18 - 12/30/18; 7 million gallons of water;
• 33667, conf, MRO, Dutton USA 21-1TFH, 33-061-04064, Reunion Bay, no production; fracked 12/10/18 - 12/19/18; 7.3 million gallons of water;
• 33668, conf, MRO, Fannie USA 21-1H, 33-061-04065; Reunion Bay, no production; fracked 12/10/18 - 12/19/18; 8.4 million gallons of water;

Looking At 5G -- Investors Only -- Nothing About The Bakken -- March 5, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you may have read here.

XLNX: link here --

• will likely report 4Q18 earnings on April 24, 2019
• based on ten analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is 94 cents
• the reported EPS for the same quarter one year ago: 77 cents
• Other data points from various sources:
• trading near its 52-week high
• pays slightly more than 1%
• Xilinx shareholder have enjoyed an impressive 161% share price gain (over three years)
• share price is up about 35% in about a quarter -- link here, March 5, 2019;
• XLNX is "best-in-class" 5G chip pick -- BofA ML analyst; link here -- Barrons; March 4, 2019;
• five high-flying stocks near their 52-week highs that can scale higher -- Zacks, March 4, 2019; of the five stocks, XLNX was mentioned first;
• press release: XLNX chip can cover the entire sub-6 gigahertz spectrum, which is critical for next-generation 5G deployment

***************************************
A Pretty Ugly Graphic

Link here: GE shares tumble; company sees "significant" headwinds to 2019 industrial cash flows. On top of that, US GDP growth for 1Q19 might come in at 0.3%.

***************************************

Two Heavyweights Drop Out: Clear The Field For Biden-Beto

Within the last couple of days, Hillary says "no." Earlier today, Michael Bloomberg also said he won't run for the Democratic nomination for president. He cites the "fact" that he could not break out of the crowded field, especially given the rules the DNC has set for a potential candidate to be in the primary debates.

Take any of the current announced candidates and seriously ask yourself, do you actually see any of them becoming the next president of the United States? Pocahontas? Kamala Harris? Bernie Sanders? I just don't see it. Which brings me back to Biden-Beto.

It speaks volumes that both heavyweight contenders -- Bloomberg and Hillary -- have said no. They have seen the polls and they know how far left they would have to move.

Cuomo? He might not even be able to win his own state. The guys and gals from Virginia, West Virginia, New Jersey? Possibly. The governor of Illinois? Possibly.

The Road To Mexico -- Mexico's President Will Halt Hydrocarbon Auctions For Three Years -- March 5, 2019

The Southern Surge: tracking will now be at this site. 

Updates

March 6, 2019 a.m. CT: The Boston Globe, headline story, is reporting that more than 76,000 illegals entered across the southern border in February, 2019, double the number one year earlier. 

Later, 9:12 p.m. CT: it was about two hours ago I implied that the southern border was likely to be the big story this year or next. Now, just two hours later, Drudge has made it the banner story:

The good news: it looks like Congress has solved the tight labor market facing US employers. Don't build the fence; don't change the laws; just let folks arrive en masse. I assume JFK, et al, will leave immigration / passport control unmanned and allow foreigners in willy-nilly.  

Original Post

 
The "road-to-Mexico" tag is here. Mid-February, 2019, these recent posts:

• Mexican leftist president flip flops: will allow fracking
• Pemex could fail; some say Pemex is doomed; if Pemex fails, Mexico fails
• Mexico gives Pemex a $3.5 billion tax cut
• Mexico to give a $5.2 billion stimulus package to Pemex.

The tea leaves suggest Pemex is at best on life support in the ICU.

By the way, before I forget, has anyone seen the most recent headlines regarding the surge of illegal immigrants coming across the southern border?  These are the headlines in the last 24 hours -- one seventeen minutes ago -- (note the sources: Washington Post, NPR, and Axios):

If Pemex fails, Mexico fails, and Mexico will look a lot like Venezuela.

But I digress.

Back to the road to Mexico.

Platts is reporting that Mexico's decision to delay auctions on new oil and gas development until at least 2021 will result in billions of dollars in revenue losses and significantly stymie new production over the next decade, according to a member of the country's National Hydrocarbon Commission said Tuesday.

Another digression: we will probably never know but my hunch is that Commissioner Hector Moreira Rodriguez' time on the commission is soon to come to an end.

From the linked article:

• delays in the country's oil and natural gas auctions will delay the new president's oil, gas proudciton goals
• production exceeding 2 million bopd are now seen as unrealistic (put that in perspective: four small counties in North Dakota could produce 2 million bopd if unfettered)
• it appears that Mexico will be "lucky" to hold output at 1.6 million bopd through 2024
• every year, Mexico delays a bidding, it costs the country $1 billion 
• in December, 2018, the new president said that Mexico would halt its hydrocarbon auction rounds by three years
• really, really bad timing, because right now, the US more than ever, needs heavy oil that Mexico could provide 

There's an essay in a recent WSJ Review, page C6, February 16 - 17, 2019, featuring Jim Collins, a business guru known for his best-selling books Built to Last, Good to Great, and "other staples of the corporate bookshelf."

He's 61 years old. He's been around. He taught management at Stanford University in the 1990s. He is known for something called "Level 5 leadership."

Near the end of that essay:

Mr Collins, whose principles include "confront the brutal facts," is facing some of his own. He's afraid of disease (he recently lost two close friends to cancer) and is concerned that there might be a stretch of political or global turbulence ahead that none of us can accurately predict."

I'm thinking maybe Mr Collins might want to take a six-month sabbatical to study the southern border.

Completely Unexpected: Number Of Rigs In North Dakota Continues To Climb -- March 5, 2109

Active rigs (note: highest rig count in four years on this date)

$56.65	3/5/2019	03/05/2018	03/05/2017	03/05/2016	03/05/2015
Active Rigs	69	61	45	35	113

Ten new permits:

• Operators: Crescent Point Energy (7); BR (3)
• Fields: Winner (Williams); Elidah (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Crescent Point Energy has permits for seven CPEUSC Reed wells in section 10-158-100 in Winner oil field;
• BR has permits for a 3-well Phantom Ship pad in section 22-152-97 in Elidah oil field

Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: pending

• 25957, 1,727, Equinor, Mark 4-9F 4TFH, Williston, t2/19; cum --;
• 32238, 383, Equinor, Mark 4-9F XE 1H, Williston, t2/19; cum --;
• 33430, 1,969, MRO, Big Head USA 41-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t2/19; cum --;
• 33431, 4,351, MRO, Birds Bill USA 41-2TFH, Reunion Bay, 4 sections; t1/19; cum 12K over 6 days extrapolates to 57,295 bbls/30-day month;
• 33664, 4,844, MRO, Bears Arm USA 41-2H, Reunion Bay, t2/19; cum 1K over 2 days;
• 34080, 1,816, Equinor, Sjol 5-8F XW 1TFH, Williston, t2/19; cum --;
• 34081, 2,113, Equinor, Sjol 5-8F 2H, Williston, t2/19; cum --;
• 34671, 1,285, Hess, GO-Bergstrom 156-98-2833H-3, Wheelock, 4 sections, t2/19; cum --;
• 34672, 1,473, Hess, GO-Bergstrom 156-98-2833H-2, Wheelock, 4 sections, t2/19; cum --;

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Klub

A reader sent me this link regarding a Scandinavian favorite: klub.

I would not have posted this item, as interesting as it was, except for the fact that when one googles klub, the common denominator is that regardless of how the dumplings are made, they are always served with lots and lots of butter.

I did not notice it until late in life, but my Norwegian father put lots and lots of butter, it seems, on almost anything he ate. I never thought about it at the time except that it did not seem particularly healthy but now I start to understand where his habit originated.

I'm glad I seldom/never gave him grief about putting lots and lots of butter on his food. It was probably more than just the taste. At least subconsciously he must have had many memories of doing the same when he was growing up in Newell, SD. The person he talked most about, even when he was 94 years old? His mother.

Making America Great -- March 5, 2019

Data lags: but one can track US crude oil exports here.  It appears US crude oil exports hit an all-time high back in October, 2018. It's really quite amazing when one thinks about it.

Link to story here.

From twitter today:

Laying Down Markers For OPEC: Chevron, ExxonMobil -- March 5, 2019

Link here.

ExxonMobil and Chevron have sharply lifted their expectations for production in the Permian Basin, the heartland of the US shale boom, in the first half of the 2020s.

In a presentation to analysts this week, Exxon is revising up its projection of oil and gas production in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico from 600,000 barrels equivalent a day to 1m in 2024, while Chevron has lifted its estimate from 650,000 b/d to 900,000 in 2023.

The revised projections demonstrate the two largest US energy groups’ confidence in the continued growth of the country’s oil and gas production.

Also, Bloomberg, an op-ed:  the headline is above; the op-ed begins with the data in the story above, and then goes on:

Apart from the spectacle of America’s two oil majors battling to be king of Texas, what’s striking about those targets is that they imply both companies will be relying on the Permian for roughly one of every four barrels they produce within the next five years. That is a most un-major-like level of concentration in one asset, especially one at home and not in some far-flung corner of the world. The supermajor rationale of get-together-and-go-forth, expounded in the megamergers of 20 years ago, isn’t dead exactly, but it’s no longer the guiding mantra.

The rationale was captured in Wirth’s comment that Chevron’s “risk is decreasing as our capital spending becomes more weighted towards smaller, shorter-cycle investments.” The vast majority of Chevron’s anticipated increase in production to 2023 will come from projects that are already sanctioned, and 60 percent of them will be in the Permian Basin. Roughly another 30 percent relates to other tight-oil reserves.

Wirth’s predecessor was dogged by years of big-ticket, delayed mega-projects that burned cash and hurt returns. In that way, Chevron exemplified a wider degradation in the majors’ reputation as stewards of capital. In addition, the specter of climate change and peak oil demand has, in effect, raised the risk premium on new long-term projects. Winning hearts and minds on Wall Street now involves keeping a tight rein on spending, having flexibility on drilling and production and paying out a bigger chunk of cash flow year in, year out.

For Chevron, shale — and Permian shale in particular —  is the key to that. The same goes for Exxon, even though it is playing catch up there, having had to buy its way into a big Permian position and lacking Chevron’s advantage in terms of low or no-royalty barrels.

Buzz words:

• smaller, shorter-cycle investments
• global warming
• peak oil demand
• risk premium on long-term projects

This is not necessarily good news for countries like Norway and Brazil that still depend on long-cycle, big-investment programs.

Meanwhile, over at Rigzone: same story, these data points:

• even at $35/bbl, Exxon expects Permian production to average more than a 10 percent return
• Exxon paid dearly to get into the Permian -- getting in late -- one wonders how well those who got in early will do
• ExxonMobil expects its Permian production to increase to more than one million boepd by 2024 -- that's only five years from now
• this would be a nearly 80 percent increase for Exxon, who has a resource base of 10 bilion boe in the Permian
• let's see, 10 billion / 1 million = 10,000 days or almost 30 years of production at that rate
• Chevron? to 900,000 bopd by year-end 2023 -- note CVX states their goal in bbls of crude oil; XOM states their goal in boepd
• look at this: Chevron bought into the Permian decades ago and 80% of its land position has zero-to-low royalty and minimal drilling commitments

Absolutely amazing.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

States Ranked By Taxes Paid -- March 5, 2019

Link here.
1. New York
2. Connecticut
3. New Jersey
4. California
5. Illinois
6. Wisconsin
7. Maryland
8. Minnesota
9. Rhode Island
10. Massachusetts

33. North Dakota

38. Montana

45. Texas

49. South Dakota
50. Alaska

Holy Mackerel! TSLA Plummets -- March 5, 2019 -- China Says Tesla 3s Bound For China Were Mis-Labeled

Updates

Later, 1:58 p.m. CT: going through the archives it was noted that Zachary Shahan appeared to be bullish on TSLA back on November 25, 2018, and argued that "cash on hand" for the company was just fine, and that investors were being misled for some reason or other. Be that as it may, how did TSLA do over the next few months:

Ouch. It appears that "cash on hand" was just one component that needed to be tracked.

Later, 1:11 p.m. CT: that misprinted label? Tesla says it was just a hiccup.  Something is very fish here -- or the reporting is incredibly bad. There was no explanation for "misprinting of the labels." Anyway, regardless, Tesla says this issue has been corrected, and Chinese customs authorities are now letting Model 3s into the country.

Original Post

Don't get mad, get even. Yesterday we reported that a lot of Chinese millionaires/billionaires were upset to learn that they overpaid for their Teslas. By a huge amount. Apparently those millionaires/billionaires have a direct line to President Xi. Xi did not get mad; he got even: banned further imports of the Tesla Model 3. At least that's the rumor.

China's Caixin news agency reported that customs officials in Shanghai had suspended clearances and were refusing to allow 1,600 Model 3s from entering the world's second largest economy as a result of mis-labeling on the electric vehicles that would have made them illegal to operate under Chinese law.

The Caixin report also said import suspension would prevent Model 3s that have already passed customs from being sold to Chinese customers until the labeling issue had been addressed.

Mis-labeling issue? In China, mis-labeling issues? The only thing I can think of: the cars did not have this label: "Made In China."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The overall market is "flat" today after a bruising Monday. But TSLA is anything but flat. Now down another 5% in early morning trading, TSLA shares have dropped below $275 on relatively high volume.

See this over at SeekingAlpha.

I can come up with sixteen reasons why this is happening but anyone reading this far can come up with the same list, so let's do something more enjoyable:

Sixteen Reaons, Connie Stevens, "Mulholland Drive"

Autos Drag Down Sales; SUV Sales Actually Rose -- March 5, 2019

Of the stories I said I would get back to later today, the only on that interests me at the moment is from ArgusMedia: US sales of light trucks and automobiles decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.5mn units in February, as sales of sedans fell to a near 10-year low.

Wow.

More data points, February auto, light truck sales:

• sales in February at an 18-month low

Light trucks and automobiles:

• February, 2019: 16.5 million unit rate
• January, 2019: 16.7 million unit rate
• February, 2018: 16.9 million unit rate

It appears folks are getting ready for the Green Nude Eel.

Auto sales:

• February, 2019: 4.87  million unit rate
• January, 2019: 5.32 million unit rate
• February, 2018: 5.44 million unit rate

Light truck sales (includes SUVs): rose

• February, 2019: 11.66  million unit rate
• January, 2019: 11.36 million unit rate
• February, 2018: 11.49 million unit rate 

I might be misreading something here. The headlines across the board yesterday regarding auto sales were all "negative." They all suggested "sales were down." At least that's what I read. But then the narrative: sedan sales fell, but SUVs and light trucks rose. SUVs and light trucks have a (much) better profit margin than sedans, so what's the problem. Manufacturers are pushing SUVs and light trucks.

Natural Gas At $200/MMBTU? -- Apparently -- RBN Energy -- March 5, 2019

Updates

May 30, 2019: #35093 (see below) reports a record IP.

Original Post

One we missed yesterday, from The Mercury News:

Sunday also featured a coldest low of minus-44 degrees in Montana and a warmest high of 88 in Florida. That made for a remarkable 132 degree temperature difference across the Lower 48.

The National Weather Service office in Great Falls reported that Lewiston, in central Montana, set an all-time record for March and this late in the winter with a low of minus-34 degrees, toppling the previous mark of minus-28 on multiple dates. Great Falls had low of minus-32 degrees which was a tie for the coldest temperature in March there, last done on the 10th in 1932.

If those absurdly frigid temperatures were not enough, wind chills were pushed even lower. A truly bonkers wind chill of minus-57 was recorded in north-central parts of the state at Havre.

Stories to come back to later:

• future of high-speed rail in the US; includes a video of an Amtrak train for millennials who may have never seen an Amtrak train which figures big in the Green Nude Eel; another high-speed train debacle;
• COP, over at SeekingAlpha, maybe
• US light vehicle sales fell to 18-month low
• 1Q19 GDP growth still seen at 0.3%
• a non-story: US to sell up to 6 million bbls from SPR
• China cuts economic growth target
• frigid across the "heartland"
• GAAP vs non-GAAP, updated March 4, 2019, over at Investopedia; 

******************************
Back to the Bakken
Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, March 5, 2019: 21 wells for the month; 21 wells for the quarter --

• 35093, 10626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, 35 stages, 10 million lbs, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 68K after 24 days; 
• 34731, 2,223, CLR, Pasadena 7X-11H,  Banks, 46 stages; 9.1 million lbs, t11/18; cum 100K 1/19; the Pasadena wells are tracked here;
  
• 34511, 1,573, Nine Point Energy, Fritz 150-101-32-29-13H, Pronghorn, 60 stages; 10 million lbs, t9/18; cum 90K 1/19;
• 33089, 1,098, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 4-19H, Elm Tree, t2/19; cum 13K over 16 days; the Sakakawea Federal wells are tracked here;
  

Active rigs:

$56.78	3/5/2019	03/05/2018	03/05/2017	03/05/2016	03/05/2015
Active Rigs	68	61	45	35

RBN Energy: Sumas gas prices set US record as Arctic blast descents.

Natural gas spot prices at Sumas, WA, on Friday went as high as $200/MMBtu, a record price not only for the Pacific Northwest spot gas market, but for the U.S.

That level surpassed even the highest price seen in the premium Northeast market in the pre-Shale Era. Other Western prices also rose Friday but not to anywhere near Sumas, with intraday highs at the other hubs mostly staying below $10/MMBtu.

This is just the latest instance of turmoil in the Pacific Northwest gas market since last fall, when a rupture on Enbridge’s Westcoast Energy/BC Pipeline system (on October 9) disrupted Canadian gas exports to Washington State at the Sumas border crossing point.

Ongoing testing on the Westcoast system and the resulting capacity reductions for deliveries to Sumas, along with reduced deliverability at the region’s largest storage facility, Jackson Prairie, over the past month have made the Pacific Northwest more of a demand “island” than ever, especially as those issues coincide with this week’s polar-vortex weather.

Sumas prices for today’s flows re-entered the stratosphere, averaging just under $16/MMBtu, but remained the highest price in the country. Today, we review the market conditions contributing to the sky-high prices.

Archived.