Tuesday, March 5, 2019

NOG: January, 2019 -- Corporate Presentation

In anticipation of NOG's earnings, 4Q18, a look at NOG's corporate presentation, January, 2019.

Reminder for newbies: NOG is a non-operator in the Bakken.
  • acres
    • net acres: 151,978 net acres
    • 95% held, 97% held in North Dakota
  • production:
    • 4Q18: mid-point guidance -- 35,500 boepd
    • 3Q18: 26,708 boepd; 84% crude oil
  • big picture
    • enterprise value: $1.920 million
    • market cap: $1.080 billion
  • wells
    • well costs (AFE): $8.0 million
  • EURs
    • 2018 wells tracking over a 1,000 Mboe EUR type curve
  • high quality wells, selected -- name of well, operator, peak 30 (boepd), middle Bakken wells:
    • Liberty 45-1311H, EOG, 1,568
    • Gabriel 1-36-25H, Slawson, 1,376
    • Wold Federal 44-7-4XH, Whiting
    • Shorty 4-9F 3H, Equinor, 1,132
    • Wiley 8-25H, CLR, 2.289
    • EN-Sorenson B-LE-155-94-3526H-1, Hess, 1,448
    • Lars 14-8H, MRO, 1,648
    • Orvis State 150-99-21-16-5H, Newfield, 2,278
    • Faye 1C MBH, BR, 1,421
    • Crane Federal 5300 34-24-12B, 1,327
  • high quality wells, selected -- name of well, operator, peak 30 (boepd), Three Forks wells:
    • Liberty 114-1311H, EOG, 1,476
    • Gabriel 5-36-25TFH, Slawson, 1,355
    • Wold Federal 44-7-1TFH, Whiting, 1,745
    • Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, MRO, 3,746
    • Burr Federal 8-26H2, CLR, 1,013
  • top operators
    • Slawson: 15.1%
    • CLR: 14.2%
    • Whiting: 11.9%
    • Hess: 8.0%
    • COP: 7.4%
    • Oasis: 5.0%
    • EOG: 4.9%
    • XTO: 4.7%
    • Equinor: 3.7%
    • Petro-Hunt: 2.9%
    • MRO: 2.6%
A closer look at that MRO Sibyl USA Three Forks well:
  • 33943, 6,396, MRO, Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 241K 1/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20193141337418132599281403078934
BAKKEN12-20182927195275671985342322040661
BAKKEN11-20183054031539453452380450077300
BAKKEN10-2018318849587749690161186860113630
BAKKEN9-20181029474289882094236373034709

Neighboring well, was a dying well by 2014, then along with the "children" wells, it was re-fracked in 2018:
  • 17568, 539/5,645, MRO, Charles Shobe-USA 44-19H, Reunion Bay, F, 5.7 million gallons water; 45 stages, 5.5 million lbs (7/16/18); original frack was a one-stage open hole frack, one-half million lbs, t2/09; cum 343K 1/19; so, for the price of a small frack, got a "brand new well" with an IP of 5,645;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20193136180361651078950286047817
BAKKEN12-20181831554316461090240476038220
BAKKEN11-20181525449253391035630664029203
BAKKEN10-20181838867399892466947393045170
BAKKEN9-20181229459280213283332716032596
BAKKEN8-201810171498098
BAKKEN7-20181100000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-201800710000
BAKKEN4-2018235195175462035672
BAKKEN3-20183170872870897256394
BAKKEN2-201822623645647553451

Not a neighbor, but in the same general area, not refracked; last fracked in 2014, as an open hole frack with one-half million lbs sand:
  • 16686, 379, MRO, Shobe 24-20H, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 415K 1/19; 
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2019311150911536147911416268816621
BAKKEN12-2018301379613667289321484481205927
BAKKEN11-201813023007611152969
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-2018203701852510250
BAKKEN7-201827262525825683686331565
BAKKEN6-201830303231666564208382333
BAKKEN5-20183130933179723427019401969
BAKKEN4-201830333132297344524396023
 

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