Saturday, September 28, 2024

It Really Can Make A Difference -- Comparing Three ETFs -- September 28, 2024

Locator: 48431PERSINV.

If I have one regret with regard to personal investing: not pivoting to ETFs sooner.  

Schwab ETFs: list here.

Would you rather?

Did your individual stock picks return > 43% this past year?

One needs to know what the ETFs hold.

SCHD -- just dividends.

Compare with SCHD with SCHB:


Compare SCHB with SCHG:

Top ten holdings for each of SCHG and SCHB:

AAPL was one of four top Dow losers this past year (the top four: INTC, NKE, AAPL, BA). AAPL was a top holding in SCHG and yet SCHG had a 43% return this past year.

Of course, this begs another question.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • NOTE: content and typographical errors may increase due to a number of factors. I correct them when I find them. But if something seems wrong or doesn't make sense, it's likely to be a typographical error as anything else. (Updated: September 28, 2024).
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.    

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The Book Page 

Notes for this book will be posted here.

From The Greco-Persian Wars, Peter Green, c. 1996, pp 16 - 17. This took place in 600 years before the birth of Christ, in Athens, Greece. Does this sound familiar?

Cleisthenes had returned from exile under the Spartan military umbrella: to get back into power by constitutional means, once that umbrella had been removed, was a far trickier business

The conservative group, led by Isagoras, son of Teisander, fought hard -- and with considerable initial success -- to prevent an Alcmaeonid take-over

They began their campaign by scrutinizing the electoral roll, and getting a good many of Cleisthenes' "new immigrants" supporters disenfranchised on technical quibbles. But they were soon saw that it would pay off better, in the long run, to capture the popular vote rather than antagonize it. 

A law was passed abolishing the judicial use of torture against Athenian citizens; other similar measures followed; for two years Isagoras had things very much his own way. The electorate showed no sign whatsoever, at this stage, of welcoming Cleisthenes as a great democratic reformer, for the very good reason that no such idea had yet entered his head. 

In 508 BC, however, Isagoras was elected Chief Archon. 

Cleisthenes had already held this office, and was thereby debarred from standing again. Something had to be done: as a desperate measure Cleisthenes, to borrow Herodotus's ambiguous phrase, "took the people into partnership." 

This probably meant a radical extension of the franchise: to put it bluntly, Cleisthenes bribed the citizen-body to support him by offering them their first real stake in the government, a government that he intended to lead by means of their block (bloc?) vote. The proposal was rushed through the Assembly; and so, by a somewhat singular accouchement (childbirth), Athenian democracy finally struggled to birth. 

The child (early democracy in Greece) proved noisy, healthy and troublesome almost before it  (democracy) could walk; which was lucky, since other its chances of survival would have been slim.

More on this book later, I suppose.

Amazon: Deep Pockets -- September 28, 2024

Locator: 48430LLPOF.

Link here.


Again, there are a handful of companies able to do things like this. 

New tag: PrivateFinance.

Apple Vision Pro -- M5 -- An Update -- September 28, 2024

Locator: 48429APPLE.

M5: only a few posts on the blog regarding the M5. 

Link here.


Titans: Mark Zuckerberg

Locator: 48428TITANS.

Tag: Zuckerberg.

Link here.

(Bloomberg) -- Mark Zuckerberg’s bet on the metaverse initially looked like a colossal mistake, wiping more than $100 billion from his net worth. But now it’s paying off big-time.

Buoyed by a record-high Meta Platforms Inc. share price, Zuckerberg’s net worth has climbed almost sixfold in less than two years to $201 billion, the first time he’s exceeded the $200 billion mark, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
He’s moved to fourth place on the list of the world’s 500 richest people behind Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Bernard Arnault.

While other tech titans made big jumps in net worth this year — Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang, for example, has more than doubled his wealth to $106.2 billion — none has grown as much as Zuckerberg’s. He’s added $73.4 billion to his fortune since January 1, 2024, thanks to his 13% stake in Meta. The stock closed at an all-time high on Wednesday and is up 60% this year.

The one titan that has not invested in tech? Yes, there's one. 

November 4, 2022: META was selling for $90 / share. This past week? $561 / share.

For $50 billion at $100 /share = 500,000,000 (five hundred million shares) at the end of 2022.

Today, 500 x 10^6  x $561 = $280,500,000,000 = $280 billion. 

BRK cash horde at the end of 2022: $100 billion.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • NOTE: content and typographical errors may increase due to a number of factors. I correct them when I find them. But if something seems wrong or doesn't make sense, it's likely to be a typographical error as anything else. (Updated: September 28, 2024).
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.   
A tech portfolio.


AI Stressing The Grid -- September 28, 2024

Locator: 48427AI.

Link here

My hunch: some states will have huge advantages -- what's needed:

  • political will
  • lots of land
    • for data centers
    • for huge transmission-line corridors
  • utilities with deep pockets; access to capital

Nuclear power: story to watch -- if "they" can bring Three-Mile Island back on line within five years and within budget.

Costco Vs Walmart -- Saturday, September 28, 2024

Locator: 48426RETAIL.

Updates

September 28, 2024: say what you want, these are outstanding graphics. Link here. The print is small. To cut to the chase, the two numbers that are most important:

  • growth in revenue y/y; and,
  • margins.

Outside of these numbers, other important considerations:

  • one year return on equity;
  • dividends, particularly change y/y;
  • comparison with peers;
  • MOJO, the CNBC effect;
  • part of the fourth industrial revolution;
  • 30-year future.

Costco: $ / margins / change:

  • net profit: $2.4 billion / 3.0% / +0.2 pp Y/Y
  • operating profit: $3.0 billion / 3.8% / +0.3 pp Y/Y
  • gross profit: $10.1 billion / 12.7% / +0.4 pp Y/Y
  • revenue: $79.9 billion / -- / +1% Y/Y
  • net sales: $78.2 billion  / -- / +1% Y/Y

Compare with Walmart (WMT), link here:

  • net profit: $5.8 billion / 4.0% / +1.0 pp Y/Y
  • operating profit: $5.6 billion / 3.0% / +0.5 pp Y/Y
  • gross profit: $38.6 billion / 24% / +1.0 pp Y/Y
  • revenue: $164.0 billion / -- / +7% Y/Y
  • net sales: $162.7 billion  / -- / +7% Y/Y
  • Walmart USA: $113.7 billion (ex Walmart international, Sam's Club

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App Economy Insights

 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • NOTE: content and typographical errors may increase due to a number of factors. I correct them when I find them. But if something seems wrong or doesn't make sense, it's likely to be a typographical error as anything else. (Updated: September 28, 2024).
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.  

And finally, would you rather? WMT is selling at a discount to COST this past year. Although in the big scheme of things, it was trivial.


Four Worse Performers In The Dow This Year -- To Date -- September 28, 2024

Locator: 48425ARCHIVES.

Link here.  This was from March 24, 2024. Things may have changed.

Nike, Boeing, Intel, Apple. 

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Pemex

Production drops 6% (y/y) in August.

Link here.

Crude oil production only averaged below 1.5 million bpd in August, as Pemex’s crude output has been falling in recent years and has hit the lowest level in more than 40 years. Pemex produced a total of 1.77 million barrels per day (bpd) of liquids, which include crude oil and condensate, last month, down by 6% compared to August of last year. And this despite the outgoing president pulling out all stops to turn things around.

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Netanyahu

This surprised me. The MSM had suggested that the Israelis wanted Netanyahu out. But apparently not.

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Netanyahu Cleans House Literally

Less than 72 hours after the above was playing out, the IDF took out the leader out of Hezbollah.

Remember, this all began months ago with an unprovoked attack and hostage-taking by Hamas in the south. Iran's Supreme Leader, meanwhile, goes into "deep" hiding. 

Geopolitically, the timing is perfect for Netanyahu and the Israelis. 

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Drudge