Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Another Meme I Can't Stand -- The High Price To Visit Disneyland -- September 10, 2024

Locator: 48562DISNEY.

Link here

From the linked article:

On the other hand, the price of Disney World and Disneyland’s cheapest ticket has remained steady since 2019. A Disney World one-day, one-park, off-peak ticket will cost a park-goer $109, and its equivalent at Disneyland is $104. But on average, a one-day ticket at Walt Disney World costs $154, according to Wolfe Research, and a Magic Kingdom ticket costs as much as $189 during peak travel times.

This past weekend, my wife, Sophia and I drove ten hours to Nashville to visit Sophia's sister for family day, Vanderbilt University.

Least expensive room in Nashville that I would be willing to stay: $500 / night.

We never stay in Nashville. We generally stay twenty minutes outside of Nashville, to the south in Bellevue. The place we usually stay ($150 last year) was $330 this year -- for one night. So we stayed in a 2-star motel which lived up to its 2-star rating rating for $160 / night.

We got in late, and we left early, so we were probably there for less than eight hours. The continental breakfast was free -- coffee and toast was all I ever get. That's another story for another time. 

So, for $160, we simply slept -- I guess in all fairness, that's only $55 / person. 

But above, the least expensive, one-day, one-park, off-peak ticker is $109 / day / person and I can guarantee you that a seven-year-old will get a lot more fun out of Disneyland than what they get for $160 / night in a 2-star motel.

But again, the best we could have done in downtown Nashville was $500 / night -- or $170 / person, about the cost for one day at Disneyland. 

It still gets back to budgeting. For most, Disneyland is a one-time event, or maybe once every seven-to-ten years -- and if that's important enough for the family, one starts saving up long before one goes.

More Ellison Today -- September 10, 2024

Locator: 48561TECH.

In all the clutter today, the biggest story most folks missed: Larry Ellison, Oracle, announced partnership with AWS! Holy mackerel. Right now it's hard not to get excited about tech. The most fun I've had in almost fifty years of investing -- watching the pivot from energy to technology.  The behemoths at the table! Along that same line, DEI is dead and renewable energy has pivoted from "good for the environment," to "we need all the electricity we can produce." We need so much, we're going nuclear!

Link here.

If I recall correctly, Ellison said he is looking to build several "GW-data centers" and power them with co-located modular nuclear reactors.

"That strong contract backlog will increase revenue growth throughout FY25. But the biggest news of all was signing a MultiCloud agreement with AWS." -- Twitter.

Compare Oracle's income statement with that of Apple:

Beth:

Are folks paying attention?

AMD is in the CPU business, not the GPU business but that's changing. So, comparing GPU sales among these three is comparing apples to oranges to pomegranates. But having said that, wow!

INTC fell again today, dropping below $19.

AMD:


Actionable intel. Compare with Liz Sonders' graphics:


Reminder: Larry Ellison, Oracle, said this week that Oracle will partner with AWS. And forty percent of that investment is going to Nvidia's GPUs.

WTI Drops Below $66 -- Oasis With Four New Permits -- Halo Effect -- September 10, 2024

Locator: 48560B.

WTI: $65.75.

Active rigs: 39.

Six new permits, #41114 - #41120, inclusive:

  • Operators: Oasis (4); Murfin Drilling (2)
  • Fields: Glass Bluff (McKenzie); Snow (Dunn County)
  • Comments: 
    • Oasis has permits for four Sawtooth Federal / Sawtooth wells, SENE 20-152-102, 
      • to be sited 473 FEL and at 2169 FNL, 2202 FNL, 2268 FNL, and 2301 FNL;
    • Murfin Dilling has permits for two Steffan wells, NWNW 30-142-97, 
      • to be sited at 333 FNL and 308 FWL and at 333 FNL and 273 FWL;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported to be completed:

  • 39968, 580, Petroshale, Primus 2TFH,
  • 40231, 3,401, MRO, Lillebridge 44-12H, Killdeer,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2024312239422394328041859817787750
BAKKEN6-2024302447724488350361944419168217
BAKKEN5-202429333173333064045261272602522
BAKKEN4-20242439197391109172926113241361885

Well of interest:
21959, 1,200, MRO, Elizabeth Strommen 24-12H, Killdeer, t7/12; cum 373K 7/24, recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2024311347613480223311238811845502
BAKKEN6-2024301635216352310271343913248150
BAKKEN5-202431191471912953402152321517213
BAKKEN4-20242711208112625563783437706607
BAKKEN3-2024238106802710438757755300388
BAKKEN2-20240000000
BAKKEN1-20240000000
BAKKEN12-202351756411851688456
BAKKEN11-20233010387666761049632235
BAKKEN10-2023307378601145810401232
BAKKEN9-20231131232616733223634
BAKKEN8-20233197211735081016715113
BAKKEN7-202331980855458102273699
BAKKEN6-20233095710164778937130

AI Revolution -- Oracle -- Health Records -- Insurers -- September 10, 2024

Locator: 48559TECH.

Larry Ellison and Oracle were huge points of conversation on CNBC this morning. Again, Cramer's first hour on CNBC is must-watch investing news. 

For those that missed it, the following screenshots provide some of that background. ORCL is surging today. 

Lots of dots to connect.

First:

Larry Ellison was talking about "huge" data centers, mentioning that "Frontier-size" operations rune $100 billion. And Cramer noted that Nvidia gets 40% of that $100 billion.

Second:

Third: then look at this -- and ask why Nashville?


So, why Nashville? Vanderbilt.

Fourth:

Fifth: but again, why Nashville? Why Vanderbilt? What did Larry Ellison see in Vanderbilt? Maybe this will help. EMR. Electronic medical records.

Sixth: what major health corporation is headquartered in Nashville? HCA, a component of the S&P 500 --


 

Seventh: and nearby? Louisville, KY. Two hour away? Fourth largest US health insurer: Humana:

Eighth: ten top AI health care companies -- there may be a couple of surprises on this list. Link here. Number 9 caught my eye.

Ninth: and then full circle, bringing us to this --

Tenth: right now, #1 in terminals in hospitals might be Dell. Something tells me Apple would like a piece of that pie. Just one example: link here.

Related, but far off-topic, yesterday:

***************************
Abilene, Texas

Where everything is bigger. Link here

To put this in perspective, about the biggest AI data center I've seen so far is 800 MW -- this one will be a shopping 1.2GW. 

But did you notice the number of GPUs mentioned? 100,000 GPUs in a single integrated network fabric.

Big Buybacks -- Oil -- September 10, 2024

Locator: 48558INV.

Cramer today when asked about XOM: this is not the time to be be in oil.

Oil buybacks, link here

Cramer's First Hour -- Gasoline Prices Down; Income Up -- What A Great Country -- September 10, 2024

Locator: 48557CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

iPhone, from yesterday: David Faber says his children won’t get the “16.” He will upgrade their phones to the “15.” Speaks volumes.

  • Faber says the new iPhone is too expensive. LOL.
    • telecom incentives
    • trade-ins
    • together, a new phone "16" -- amortized over two years -- probably costs less than daily visit to Starbucks
  • we now know that David Faber -- MSNBC / CNBC / Android -- uses Apple iPhone -- wow
  • kids all get an upgrade! Regardless of whether it's the "15" or the "16," the kids are getting an upgrade! Apple doesn't care. Those "15's" probably have a margin of 100% by now.

Oracle: first story. Up 9% yesterday. Last year I added to my Oracle position several times. I forget why. It was during my pivot from energy to tech. Surges on 1Q24 beat, AI boost. Top pre-market gainer on the S&P 500 right now. Oracle forges strategic partnership with AWS. At open: Oracle up 14%. Frontier model: $100 billion. Forty percent of that goes to Nvidia. Frontier mentioned at this post.

Energy: the discussion continues from yesterday. The amount of energy that the hyperscalers / large data centers will need. Larry Ellison is dealing with this. 

NVDA: folks might want to spend some time looking at tech stocks today. 

Personal investing: Sophia put 40% of the cash she had today into tech.  

Income: link here.

Price of gasoline: link here.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Actionable Intel -- September 10, 2024

Locator: 48556INV.

Liz Sonders, managing director and Chief Investment Strategist at Schwab generates a gazillion graphics every month, but seldom provides any "actionable intel" for the average, small, retail investor. 

Examples

I assume this is useful information for "some," but for me, making investment decisions, these charts have no actionable intel or actionable information. 

On the other hand, Beth and Evan provide a lot of actionable information. 

So does "Portfolio Parrot." Link here for example

********************************
European Competitiveness

Link here.


Go direct to the report
.
The EU is entering the first period in its recent history in which growth will not be supported by rising populations.
By 2040, the workforce is projected to shrink by close to 2 million workers each year. We will have to lean more on productivity to drive growth. If the EU were to maintain its average productivity growth rate since 2015, it would only be enough to keep GDP constant until 2050 – at a time when the EU is facing a series of new investment needs that will have to be financed through higher growth
To digitalise and decarbonise the economy and increase our defence capacity, the investment share in Europe will have to rise by around 5 percentage points of GDP to levels last seen in the 1960s and 70s. This is unprecedented: for comparison, the additional investments provided by the Marshall Plan between 1948-51 amounted to around 1-2% of GDP annually.
If Europe cannot become more productive, we will be forced to choose. We will not be able to become, at once, a leader in new technologies, a beacon of climate responsibility and an independent player on the world stage. We will not be able to finance our social model. We will have to scale back some, if not all, of our ambitions.
This is an existential challenge.

Energy costs in Europe:

US Hydrogen -- RBN Energy -- September 10, 2024

Locator: 48555HYDROGEN.

Hydrogen is tracked here, but seldom updated. Sorry.

RBN Energy: how existing US hydrogen infrastructure forms a base for future expansion. Archived.

The hype around low-carbon-intensity (LCI) hydrogen that captivated many energy transition fans over the past four years has lost some momentum of late as industry players recalibrate their investment plans in the face of spiraling costs. Still, the U.S. government is moving full speed ahead — the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (2021) and Inflation Reduction Act (2022) promise to flow billions of dollars into LCI hydrogen infrastructure via tax credits and other incentives.
Which raises this question: Will LCI hydrogen make economic sense or not? In November 2021, the Department of Energy (DOE) asked the National Petroleum Council (NPC) to take a deep dive into the topic. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a review of the issues at hand.

Hydrogen trains:


    • operates between the cities of Redlands and San Bernardino
      • population
        • Redlands: 75,000
          • University of Redlands, undergraduate enrollment: 2,300 students
        • San Bernardino: 220,000
    • nine-mile long corridor
    • carries 416 passengers daily, M - F
    • $20-million Zero Emission Multiple Unit train
    • zero emission for end user; not zero emission in production

It would be interesting to know the increased emissions from ICEs stopped at rail crossings. Hunch: it's not zero. 

Big question: if so successful, why are such trains placed where so few people use them? 

Article:

  • $20-million up-front
  • writer does not provide current costs to operate
  • no information on price of tickets

Arrow Service link here.

  • capacity for 120 standing passengers
  • storage hooks for up to 12 bicycles
  • price: $2.75 one-way, San Bernardino to Redlands
  • weekend day pass: $10.00

500 passengers / day x 2.75 = $1,375.

$20 million x 0.02 / year = $400,000 / year

$20 million / $1,500 = 13,333 days = 36 years?

Taco Tuesday -- September 10, 2024

Locator: 48554B.

WTI: $68.00

Wednesday, September 11, 2024: 30 for the month; 158 for the quarter, 482 for the year
40515
, conf, CLR, Hartman 12-28H,
40325
, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-9C-4-3H,
40148, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1402-3BH,

Tuesday, September 10, 2024: 27 for the month; 155 for the quarter, 479 for the year
40514, conf, CLR, Hartman 11-28H, Chimney Butte; I thought these wells would be better; they aren't; they are tracked here.
40326, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 144-98-16B-21-1H,  

RBN Energy: how existing US hydrogen infrastructure forms a base for future expansion. Archived.

The hype around low-carbon-intensity (LCI) hydrogen that captivated many energy transition fans over the past four years has lost some momentum of late as industry players recalibrate their investment plans in the face of spiraling costs. Still, the U.S. government is moving full speed ahead — the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (2021) and Inflation Reduction Act (2022) promise to flow billions of dollars into LCI hydrogen infrastructure via tax credits and other incentives. Which raises this question: Will LCI hydrogen make economic sense or not? In November 2021, the Department of Energy (DOE) asked the National Petroleum Council (NPC) to take a deep dive into the topic. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a review of the issues at hand.