Absolutely Fascinating! ISO NE Trending Toward $200/MWh -- Spikes To $220/MWh -- November 30, 2021

Link here. 

Here are the costs, 7th decile, and trending toward the 8th decile ($201 - $500 / MWh):

Here is the fuel mix:

What jumps out at you when you compare the "costs" with the "fuel mix"?

A reader posits the following to explain this phenomenon:

As I also have been closely following the New England electricity 'drama',  I have been a little puzzled as to why the spot pricing has been so high between ~1 AM and ~6 AM as the demand is relatively low. 

Although not 100% certain, I think I understand what is unfolding.

Components ...

1. Day Ahead/Cleared pricing

2. Status of 'Renewables' (sic) ... if the wind be 'ablowin'

3. Temperature (translates into the price AND availability of natgas)

4. Competitive game of 'chicken' amongst hydro, natgas, coal, and oil burning generators

Summary (includes a bit of informed speculation) ... 

1. The Day Ahead pricing (can be seen on the chart 'LMP Map: Real Time' by clicking non-default tab 'Day Ahead' tab which is next to default 'Real Time' tab) is what the ISO folks contract with the various generators as to how much, and at what price, electricity will be available at that time on the next day. These are 'micro sliced' into 5 minute increments.

This amount is reflected by the green line in the first chart 'System Load' and labelled 'Cleared'.

2. The wind contribution (sic) has been relatively low these past few weeks (this has been a BIG contributing factor in Europe's and the UK's current predicament ... grossly under reported by MSM).

This can easily be seen, albeit not in detail, in the 'Fuel Mix Graph' by the green line. (Precise amounts can easily be found by clicking the non-default setting of the 3 grey horizontal lines which is next to the default 'graph' setting [right angle with squiggly line]. The precisely generated amounts are displayed in ~10 minute increments and labelled by source, ie., nuclear, wind, NaturalGas LandfillGas, etc.).

3. Now, come midnight to, say, 6 in the morning, the temperatures have been cold throughout New England these past few weeks.

Consequences? Very high consumption by customers for heat-generating purposes. This is crucial ... the customers of natgas get priority for the available natgas - they have paid for the pipes via their monthly billings. About 5 1/2 Bcfd flows into New England. Power plants reliant upon piped natgas simply cannot be guaranteed supply. Some DO have onsite, back up fuel oil, but this is both limited and expensive.

Bottom line, look to 10 day temperature forecasts to sense the overnight electricity pricing.

Wind forecasts also play a role, but - my experience - far from precise.

4. Power generators (hydro versus oil-burners) can bid against one another to obtain as high a price as they can in the Spot Market while also satisfying reliability requirements of ISO, that is, they are able to generate electricity on short notice.

If you look at the current 'Fuel Mix Graph', you will see a tiny input at the 5 and 8 AM times for 'Oil' sourced.

Likewise, the high price spikes on the 'Five Minute Real-Time LMP Graph'  coincides with the input spike in 'Hydro' production.

Essentially, any provider of electricity will jump in and produce if the fuel is available (natgas/fuel oil/coal) AND a profitable outcome is achievable.

Bottom bottom line ... the New England folks have boxed themselves into an extremely precarious corner whereby they are now competing - with a global market, no less - for means of 'normal' electricity supplies (forget about affordable ... way too late), and this is highly dependent upon weather conditions.

This is EXACTLY what Australia, California, Germany, AND the UK have all experienced or are right now experiencing.

That it seems to be coming as a surprise is, in itself, the biggest surprise.

No New Permits; Two Sinclair DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 30, 2021

Active rigs:

$66.68	11/30/2021	11/30/2020	11/30/2019	11/30/2018	11/30/2017
Active Rigs	31	14	57	66	54

No new permits.

One permit renewed:

• 33206, NP Resources, Mosser Federal 143-102-22-15-4H, Billings County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36791, 968, Sinclair, Harris Federal 4-32H, Lone Butte, lot 2 section 5-146-97; no other data,
• in this section there are two Sinclair pads
• one pad runs west to east, eight wells
• the other pad runs roughly north to south, with three wells
  
• 36792, 1,629,Sinclair, Harris Federal 3-2H, Lone Butte, no other data,
• Sinclair permits in North Dakota from 2015 to the present.
  

Sinclair wells sited in section 5-146-97:

• 33426, 33-025-0277, conf, Sinclair, Crosby Creek 7-5TFH, Little Knife,
• 33425, 33-025-0276, loc, Sinclair, Crosby Creek 6-5H, Little Knife,
• 36790, 33-025-03883, loc, Sinclair, Harris Federal 30-32H, Lone Butte,
• 36791, 33-025-03884, 968, Sinclair, Harris Federal 4-32H, Lone Butte,
• 36792, 33-025-03885, 1,629, Sinclair, Harris Federal 3-32H, Lone Butte,
• 33424, 33-025-03275, drl/NC, Sinclair, Crosby Creek 5-5H, Little Knife,
• 36793, 33-025-03886, drl/NC, Sinclair, Crosby Creek 2-32H, Little Knife,
• 32461, 33-025-03102, drl/NC, Sinclair, Crosby Creek 4-5H, Little Knife,

• 19304, 174, SInclair, Crosby Creek 1-5H, Little Knife, t11/11; cum 180K 8/21; off line 9/21; 
• 23459, 1,358, Sinclair, Crosby Creek 2-5H, Little Knife, t12/12; cum 138K 7/21; F; off line 8/21; remains off line 9/21; 
• 25303, 103, Sinclair, Crosby Creek 3-5H, Little Knife, t9/13; cum 238K 8/21; F; was off line for mjuch of 9/21;

The definitive active rig report:

• the NDIC reports 32 active rigs and, yes, there are 32 rigs and 32 sites listed;
• however, CLR's H&P 492 is counted twice, once on LCU Ralph 4-27H (#37013) and also once on LCU Ralph 3-27H1, so, in fact, assuming no other errors, only 31 active rigs;
• Kraken is not on the list

Kraken's Red, White, And Blue Wells In Divide County -- November 30, 2021

FracFocus posts frack data well after the fact, or however one wants to say that.

But because the NDIC is not updating their data, we may end up using FracFocus as another way to try to keep track of what's going on in the Bakken.

To the best of my knowledge, FracFocus is chronologic, in other words, the API numbers which FracFocus uses, are chronologic by state. 

If that's true, then the most recent data for a fracked well, as of November 29, 2021, is:
33-105-05244, Kraken, Red 22-15 1H, 

Kraken's "Red" wells are up in Burg oil field, north of Williams County, in Divide County.

• 36652, 897, Kraken, Red 22-15 1H, Burg, t11/19; cum 190K 9/21;

That's the only Kraken Red well the NDIC has posted.

Let's go back one API number: 33-105-05243:

33-105-05243, Kraken, White 23-14 1H, 

• 36651, 1,017, Kraken, Whiite 23-14 1H, Burg, t11/19; cum 202K 9/21;

And from there:

• 36650, 779, Kraken, Blue 26-35 1TFH, Burg, t11/19; cum 188K 9/21;
  

CLR Looks To Have Thirteen Wells On This Drilling Unit -- Cedar Coulee -- CLR Well With Jump In Production -- November 30, 2021

This is a case, not a permit, from the October, 2021, hearing dockets.

Case 29020, CLR, Cedar Coulee-Bakken; thirteen wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, section 33-147-96 and section 4-146-96; Dunn County.

Existing producing wells in this drilling unit:

• 16797, IA/108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 168K 6/21; off line 7/21 - 8/21; remains off line 9/21; NDIC not updating their maps or data bases; is it possible CLR is already drilling new wells in this unit? Or re-fracking a neighboring well?

• 18636, 633, CLR, Bang 2-33T, Cedar Coulee, t5/10; 219K 9/21; off line 7/21 - 8/21; back on line 9/21 with a nice jump in production; re-fracked; or neighboring wells being fracked; the jump in production is not big enough to suggest a re-frack; suggests neighboring wells being fracked; sundry forms unhelpful; stripper well designation, January 20, 2018;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	26	4278	4514	6376	4178	3850	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	6	386	0	5368	527	448	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	2	0	0	1	3	2	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	641	809	197	1014	609	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	711	1004	247	1085	676	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	713	474	195	1093	688	0

******************
Wow, Wow, Wow

There it is. CLR is drilling new Bang wells in this drilling unit and the NDIC map is not being updated. Amazing. 

See the "definitive active rig report" being reported by the "milliondollarway" blog because NDIC is not updating their map. 

And it appears the "28606" is a typo. That should be "38606," and, of course no scout ticket.

And here it is, the graphic, with the CLR Bang wells that are apparently being drilled. I think there was a jump in production, and the neighboring wells haven't even been fracked yet. Because there is no scout ticket, I don't have the API number which means I can't see whether this well has been fracked or not.

A Closer Look Where MRO May Have Upwards Of Thirty-One Wells Along One Section Line -- November 30, 2021

The case, this is a case, not a permit:

• Case 29040, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, fourteen wells on a standup 2560-acre unit; sections 6/7/18/19-146-94; Dunn County; 

This one is interesting. There are already sixteen wells along the section line between section 7 and section 18 but those would be 1280-acre spacing. So I assume these fourteen wells are in addition to the sixteen locations already permitted.

Current locations and active wells:

29040, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, fourteen wells on a standup 2560-acre unit; sections 6/7/18/19-146-94; Dunn County;

Sites and wells:

• 17537, 503, MRO, David Beck USA 24-7H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 391K 9/21;

• 17493, 104, MRO, David Beck USA 34-7H, Bailey, t8/09; cum 257K 9/21;
  

• 16666, 502, MRO, Bob Tuhy USA 44-19H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 488K 9/21; this well was a relative low producer, until 6/15 when it had a jump in production from 1500 bbls/month to over 14,000 bbls / month;
  

• 38044, loc, MRO, Millie USA 21-18H, Bailey,
• 38043, loc, MRO, Pavlish USA 11-18TFH, Bailey, 
• 38042, loc, MRO, Reems USA 14-7H, Bailey, 
• 38041, loc, MRO, Terrel USA 24-7TFH, Bailey, 
• 38040, loc, MRO, TRU USA 24-7H, Bailey, 
• 16807, 305, MRO, George Tuhy 11-18H, Bailey, t2/08; cum 184K 9/21;
  

• 38045, loc, MRO, Magdalena USA 21-18TFH, Bailey, 
• 38017, loc, MRO, Bean USA 31-18H, Bailey, 
• 38018, loc, MRO, Borrud USA 31-18TFH, Bailey, 
• 38019, loc, MRO, Chester USA 41-18TFH, Bailey, 
• 38020, loc, MRO, Ellis USA 34-7TFH, Bailey, 
• 38021, loc, MRO, OTT USA 44-7TFH, Bailey, 
• 38022, loc, MRO, Sallie USA 44-7H, Bailey,

If these are all 1280-acre spacing, then there will be fourteen more wells along this section line. Overwhelming.

Salvation Army: Woke Or Confused? November 30, 2021

Before we get to the Salvation Army, this breaking announcement from Dr Fauci:

Now, back to the Salvation Army.

First the screenshot:

Now the links.

The Gazette, November 27, 2021: Salvation Army defends guide telling white people to apologize for racism.  From the Washington Examiner:

The Salvation Army recently defended an internal racism guide that discouraged "colorblindness" and encouraged staff members to "apologize for being white" after the guide faced backlash. [I would like to see the original guide.]

The Salvation Army argued the new guide was meant to encourage discussion about racism among members of the Salvation Army. The organization denied attempting to indoctrinate or tell its donors what to think, reminding people that the guide was meant for internal use.

"The Salvation Army has occasionally published study guides on various complex topics, including race, to help foster positive conversations and reflection among Salvationists," the Thursday statement said. "The hope is that by openly discussing these issues, we can encourage a more thoughtful organization that is better positioned to serve those in need. These guides are solely designed for internal use. No one is being told how to think. Period."

The Salvation Army's official response. 

Apparently, first reported by the DailyWire. Link here. November 25, 2021.

In an accompanying Study Guide on Racism, the Salvation Army says whites are racist. “The subtle nature of racism is such that people who are not consciously racist easily function with the privileges, empowerment and benefits of the dominant ethnicity, thus unintentionally perpetuating injustice,” it says.

“We must stop denying the existence of individual and systemic/institutional racism. They exist, and are still at work to keep White Americans in power,” the lesson says.

The Army’s declaration comes as liberal media are blasting Thanksgiving as a holiday that promotes genocide and white supremacy.

“What is Thanksgiving to Indigenous people? ‘A day of mourning,'” a USA Today headline on Tuesday said.

“For many, rather than a celebration of peace and shared prosperity between Native Americans and Pilgrims, Thanksgiving represents the dark shadow of genocide and the resilience of Native people,” said the piece. “Every tribe and every individual may have a different way of spending Thanksgiving. Some will gather with their families and share a meal, exchanging prayers and stories from the rich oral history of Native Americans. Others will fast for the entire day.”

The paper quoted American Indian Dennis W. Zotigh saying that Thanksgiving is “a day of mourning.” “To most natives, Thanksgiving is not a celebration,” Zotigh said. “Natives, particularly in the New England area, remember this attempted genocide as a factual part of their history and are reminded each year during the modern Thanksgiving.”

A weather service called Currently also posted an article Tuesday suggesting that Americans who celebrate the holiday are “hurting” the Native American community.

A Closer Look At An MRO Case In The December, 2021, NDIC Hearing Dockets ; Note Particularly, #18141 -- November 30, 2021

From the NDIC hearing dockets, Wednesday, December 15, 2021. Again, this is a case, not a permit.

• Case 29109, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, ten wells on a standup 1280-acre unit, 17/20-146-93; Dunn County,

There are already nine wells in this drilling unit, so MRO is simply asking for another single well.

Graphics:

The wells:

• 18141, from the north, going south, 458, MRO, Lazy HE 21-17H, Bailey, t10/09; cum 402K 9/21; huge jump in production 2/15; full production here; note jump in production;
  

• 28708, 1,244, MRO, Brink 24-20TFH, Bailey, t3/15; cum 166K 9/21;
  28705, 2,396, MRO, Castner 34-20H, Bailey, t2/15; cum 277K 9/21;
  28704, 1,072, MRO, Greider 34-20TFH, Bailey, t3/15; cum 145K 9/21;
  28703, 2,219, MRO, Hamilton 34-20H, Bailey, t3/15; cum 257K 9/21;
  28702, 1,722, MRO, Krebs 34-20TFH, Bailey, t3/15; cum 191K 9/21;

• 19553, 2,491, MRO, Lucy Fleckenstein 34-20H, Bailey, t3/15; cum 276K 9/21; 30 stages; 3.9 million lbs sand; the scout ticket shows an IP of 4, obviously an error;
• 29442, 2,305, MRO, Force 44-20TFH, Bailey, t3/15; cum 195K 9/21;

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; Neither Will Show Any Production Data -- November 30, 2021

Link here.

Re-posting. This was from last Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, four days ago, November 26, 2021:

I'm tracking this for a reason. I think it becomes a bigger story than many folks might realize now. Exhibits A, B, and C:

Overnight -- at the link -- and currently -- electricity rates are again spiking in ISO NE, and are currently in the "orange," the 7th decile, $151 - $200 / MWh. Whenever things are going "right" (rarely) rates can get as low as $20 / MWh or even go negative if the wind is blowing and the sun is shining. But lately ...

****************************
A Reminder: GasBuddy Link

Link here.

********************************
End of the Line

One of the FBI's most wanted fugitives for fifty-two years, died of natural causes in an affluent suburb north of Boston. Fascinating story. Link here. 

************************************
Euless

Since about the year 2000 we've lived in Texas. First, San Antonio, and then we moved to Grapevine, TX, in 2013, which we thought might be the best suburb in Texas. Then, due to the Texas freeze, water pipes freezing in our apartment complex (we were relatively inconvenienced) we moved to an apartment complex in .... Euless, TX, just a half-mile from where we had been living.

Euless is about a five-minute drive west of the Dallas-Ft Worth International Airport (DFW), and near the tip of the isosceles triangle formed by Grapevine to the north, Dallas to the southeast, and Ft Worth to the southwest. 

This morning, I see that a reader has sent me this article: Euless is the best place in the country to live, according to The New York Times.  

I'll have to fact check this, of course, but the article states: 

That's according to "Everyone’s Moving to Texas. Here’s Why," a new opinion column from the Times' Farhad Manjoo, who looked at a lot of data and applied a strict set of parameters to determine where would be the best place in the country to move to. Seven of the top 10 locations are in Texas, and all of those Texan cities are in North Texas.

Wow, I hope New Yorkers continue to move to Florida. Of course, Jerry Jeff Walker was a former New Yorker.

******************************
As They Say

History may not repeat itself but it certainly does seem to rhyme. 

It looks like folks are going back to look at the "history" of March, 2020, with the first major lock downs due to Covid.

Oil is back to testing the $68-lows.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 

$68.11	11/30/2021	11/30/2020	11/30/2019	11/30/2018	11/30/2017
Active Rigs	31	14	57	66	54

Tuesday, November 30, 2021: 42 for the month, 45 for the quarter, 296 for the year:

• 38268, conf, CLR, Jensen 8-8HSL,
• 38236, conf, CLR, Mittlestadt 10-17HSL1,  

RBN Energy: NGL markets have been up, down, all around. What will winter and 2022 bring?

If there was ever a year that proves NGLs march to the beat of a different drummer, 2021 was it.  Compared to pre-pandemic volumes, production is up, not down. It’s the same story for exports. Price behavior has been even more extraordinary. We’ve seen startling counter-seasonal price swings in propane and butane markets. Ethane has been dancing to the tune of volatile natural gas prices. The wackiness has even extended to natural gasoline, which this summer enjoyed seven weeks as the preferred feedstock for U.S. flexible steam crackers. Heck, it’s not even winter yet. And 2022 is likely to be every bit as chaotic. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a blog series discussing recent developments in NGL markets and take a look at what lies ahead.

To make sense of what is going on, it is always best to start at the beginning — and that is production.  Specifically, NGL production from natural gas processing. Some NGLs are produced at refineries, but those volumes are relatively small and have not changed materially over the years. As noted above, NGL production is up during 2021. In fact, average 2021 NGL production is about 10% higher than in pre-COVID 2019. That compares with crude oil production, which is down about 10% since 2019, and natural gas, which is flat over the same period.  

A Closer Look At The Two New Whiting Permits From Today's Daily Activity Report -- An NDIC Typographical Error? Or Am I Missing Something? -- November 29, 2021

NDIC places two new Whiting permits in the Parshall oil field in today's daily activity report, but I think the two new permits are for wells that will be in the Sanish oil field.

From today's post regarding today's daily activity report:

Two new permits, #38681 - #38682, inclusive:

• Operator: Whiting
• Field: Parshall (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Whiting has permits for two new LBJ wells in SWSW 14-153-91; sited 725 FSL and 415 FWL; and, 755 FSL and 415 FWL;
• Error: section 14-153-91 is in the Sanish, and Whiting already has existing LBJ sites in section 14-153-91 and they are labeled as Sanish wells on the scout tickets, not Parshall oil field. Sanish and Parshall are very, very close at that location, so it's possible I suppose, but highly doubtful.

The graphics:

Permits for a three-well pad in the same general area as the sites for the two wells suggested in today's permits:

• 38289, conf, Whiting, LBJ 14-14HU, Sanish, SESW 14-153-91, 330 FSL 1730 FWL;
• 38290, conf, Whiting, LBJ 24-14H, Sanish, SESW 14-153-91, 330 FSL 1760 FWL;
• 38291, conf, Whiting, LBJ 24-14HU, Sanish, SESW 14-153-91, 330 FSL 1790 FWL;

Whiting With Two New Permits; Active Rigs Decrease From Thirty-Four To Thirty-One -- November 29, 2021

ISO NE: late afternoon, at the 6th decile. Link here. $101 - $150; running at $125.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$69.69	11/29/2021	11/29/2020	11/29/2019	11/29/2018	11/29/2017
Active Rigs	31	14	57	66	55

Two new permits, #38681 - #38682, inclusive:

• Operator: Whiting
• Field: Parshall (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Whiting has permits for two new LBJ wells in SWSW 14-153-91; sited 725 FSL and 415 FWL; and, 755 FSL and 415 FWL;
• Error: section 14-153-91 is in the Sanish, and Whiting already has existing LBJ sites in section 14-153-91 and they are labeled as Sanish wells on the scout tickets, not Parshall oil field. Sanish and Parshall are very, very close at that location, so it's possible I suppose, but highly doubtful. 
• see this post with graphics. 
  

Thirty-one active rigs; down from thirty-four last week.

• CLR: 8
• Hess: 3
• MRO: 3
• Oasis: 2
• Whiting: 2
• Koda: 1
• Petro-Hunt: 1
• Hunt: 1
• True Oil: 1
• Iron Oil: 1
• Sinclair: 1
• Ovintiv: 1
• Grayson Mill: 1
• Eagle Operating: 1
• Summit Carbon Solutions: 1
• Slawson: 1
• Enerplus: 1
• Crescent Point Energy: 1 -- last Friday, there were three CPEUSC rigs; today, only Nabors B21, file #38555.

So the three fewer today than Friday easily explained:

• CLR down one:
• Crescent: probably a typo on Friday and only two CPEUSC rigs, and today down from two to one. So, Crescent down two from Friday plus the one from CLR makes three; from thirty-four, results in thirty-one.

A Zavanna Well's Production Jumps 6-Fold After Coming Back On Line -- November 29, 2021

The well:

• 28894, 623, Zavanna, Blackjack 24-13 3H, East Fork, t1/16; cum 290K 10/20; cum 324K 9/21;

Recent production: 9,675 bbls over 21 days extrapolates to 14K over 31 days, a 6-fold jump in production after coming back on line. Did not last long..

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	2166	2183	3932	26137	25687	3
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	3450	3568	6937	29413	28949	2
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	3566	3583	14953	26315	25847	6
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	9437	7083	24337	21407	20818	142
BAKKEN	5-2021	21	9675	6928	20834	11630	11007	310
BAKKEN	4-2021	6	60	0	7968	423	0	333
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	12	751	630	1410	7449	7161	109
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	2153	2007	4086	23019	22349	208
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	2165	2133	4116	22329	21759	123
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	2006	1806	4301	20605	20029	114

Hess Has Fracked The Newer EN-Johnson Wells In Manitou Oil Field -- Superior Well Results Are Now Being Reported -- November 29, 2021

In a long note like this, there will be typographical errors and content errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.  

For newbies: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

The well:

• 30438, AB/436, Hess, EN-Kiesel-LE-155-94-1917H-2, Manitou, four-section spacing; section line well; t9/15; cum 150K 7/21; came off line 8/21; remains off line;

Suggesting something is going on.

And here it is: three pads / four pads, north to south and lots of new activity:

• 27097, AB/558, Hess, EN-Johnson-155-94-2017H-6, Manitou, t6/14; cum 148K 6/21;
  
• 27098, 953, Hess, EN-Johnson-155-94-2017H-5, Manitou, t6/14; cum 149K 10/22;
  
• 27099, AB/IA/680, Hess, EN-Johnson-155-94-2017H-4, Manitou, t7/14; cum 119K 6/21; came off line 6/21; remains off line 9/21;

• 20164, AB/IA/920, Hess, EN-Johnson-155-94-2017H-2, Manitou, t11/11; cum 219K 6/21; came off line 7/21; remains off line 9/21;
• 20165, AB/IA/855, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-2, Manitou, t2/12; cum 315K 6/21; came off line 6/21; remains off line 9/21;
• 20166, 370, Hess, EN-Johnson-155-94-2017H-3, Manitou, t8/12; cum 235K 10/22;
  
• 20162, AB/IA/906, Hess, EN-Johnson-155-94-2017H-1 Manitou, t7/12; cum 212K 6/21; came off line 2/21; remains off line 9/21;
• 20167, 949, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-3 Manitou, t3/13; cum 230K /21; came off line 2/21; remains off line 9/21; cum 235K 10/22;
  
• 20163, 795, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-1, Manitou, t2/13; cum 186K 6/21; came off line 8/21; remains off line 9/21; cum 280K 10/22;
  

• 37712, loc/drl, Hess, EN-Johnson A-LE-155-94-2932H-1, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 194K 10/22;
  
• 37711, loc/drl, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-9, Alkali Creek, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 249K 10/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	18	6601	6540	4282	8991	8625	366

• 37710, loc/drl, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-8, Alkali Creek, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 203K 10/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	18	13773	13646	18333	23783	22805	978

• 37709, loc/drl, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-7, Alkali Creek, first production, 9/21; t--; cum --; 28K over 12 days extrapolates to 71K over 31 days; cum 230K 10/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	12	28232	27972	17988	36174	34704	1470

• 37708, loc/drl, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-6, Alkali Creek, first production, 9/21; t--; cum -- ; 31K over 13 days extrapolates to 71K over 31 days; cum 245K 10/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	13	30713	30430	8559	25464	24453	1011

• 37707, loc/drl, Hess, EN-Johnson-155-94-2017H-7, Alkali Creek, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 171K 10/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	16	9419	9332	3795	7631	7457	174

• 37706, loc/drl, Hess, EN-Johnson-155-94-2017H-8, Alkali Creek, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 160K 10/22

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	22	3842	3807	10935	13303	12984	319

• 28251, AB/IA/683, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-5, Alkali Creek, t11/4; cum 166K 7/21; came off line 7/21; remains off line 9/21;
• 28250, AB/SI, Hess, En-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-4, Alkali Creek,
  

Victor Davis Hanson Joins The "Woke" Crowd; Yorkshire Inn Gets Snowed In; The NFL Is Back -- Nothing About The Bakken -- November 29, 2021

The word for the day: abatis. 

I mentioned earlier I was in my US Civil War / US Grant phase. See this post. My notes on US Grant are in progress at this post.

It was in James Marshall-Cornall's biography that I came across the word abatis, along with glacis. The latter, glacis, has nothing in common with glassy as far as etymology is concerned, but there is a sort of family resemblance. LOL.

Whatever. 

I wasn't going to post this except that it bothers me that it appears that Victor Davis Hanson has joined the "woke" crowd. I've haven't read any of his stuff in a long time -- perhaps the last time I paid much attention to him was pre-Covid when I would sit for hours at Starbucks. But since then, not much interest. It was pure serendipity that his article appeared in the most recent issue of The Claremont Review of Books when I was reading about US Grant and putting that story together.

It all began with my short -- very short -- visit to Shiloh, TN, last month, a truly life-altering event for me. 

Internet sources suggest "the Shiloh battlefield" was 5.8 miles square and/or 9,324 acres. The numbers don't work; different sources, but be that as it may, prior to the battle Grant was anticipating as many as 100,000 Union soldiers (James Marshall-Cornall), although fewer than that actually fought. A smaller but similar number of Confederates were expected; about 45,000. 

It is impossible to imagine that many men (and hangers on) in an area that would be about six sections in size. And then the logistics: the food required to feed this army; the liquor required; and, finally, the number of port-a-potties that would have been required. Many arrived by steamer coming down the Tennessee ... just the disembarking of tens of thousands of troops would have been mind-boggling.

************************************
Global Warming

I wouldn't have bothered with posting this story but I have such fond memories of Yorkshire, how could I not post this for the archives for my grandchildren. 

If I had all the money in the world, I would have a house in Yorkshire. 

Here's the headline: snowstorm strands 61 in pub in Yorkshire, England, for third night, plenty of beer available. You will have to google the story. Google blogger app blocks this site from being linked. 

From the article:

• Tan Hill Inn
• Yorkshire Dales
• three feet of snow "overnight"

So, now, the map. I was stationed for many months at RAF Menwith Hill, northern Yorkshire, and I often spent weekends walking in the Yorkshire Dales. 

The map, and there it is:

• Tan Hill Inn is 90 minutes northwest of Pateley Bridge
• some folks left their heart in San Francisco; I left mine in Pateley Bridge

The Tan Hill Inn website.

From wiki:

Tan Hill is a high point on the Pennine Way in the Richmondshire district of North Yorkshire, England. It lies north of Keld in the civil parish of Muker, near the borders of County Durham and Cumbria, and close to the northern boundary of the Yorkshire Dales National Park. It is in an isolated location, the nearest town of Kirkby Stephen being an 11-mile drive away.

The Tan Hill Inn is the highest inn in the British Isles at 1,732 feet above sea level. 

********************************
The NFL Is Back!

LOL. 

Several months (?) ago I mentioned on the blog how brilliant Amazon was to "steal" the rights to Thursday Night Football from Fox Sports. So, how did that work out. Here are the headlines, from The TV Ratings Guide:

• November 26, 2021: Thursday TV ratings 11/25/21: NFL dominates Thanksgiving; top shows in prime time:
• NFL Overrun, CBS
• Football Night In America: NBC
• NFL: Bills vs Saints: NBC
• November 18, 2021: Thursday Cable Rating 11/18/21: Rising NFL Leads

And then this, from SportsNaut:

• Week 12: November 29, 2021: Raiders, Cowboys Thanksgiving OT thriller draws historic NFL audience numbers -- this was a Thursday game. LOL. Historic NFL audience numbers.
• NFL TV rating: CBS draws 38.3 million for Thanksgiving broadcast
• A Thanksgiving matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders delivered what will go down as one of the most-watched games in NFL history. CBS estimates it averaged 38.53 million viewers for its Thursday broadcast of the Raiders and Cowboys overtime thriller, the largest audience for a regular-season game since 41.47 million watched the New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers.
• Week 11: Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs had everyone watching;
• TNF: 13.52 million; 7.7 rating
• Fox Game of the week: 28.06 million; 14.4 rating
• Early Fox game: 17.28 million; 9.15 rating
• SNF: 14.55 million; 8.05 rating
• MNF: TBD, tonight
• Week 10: 
• TNF: 12.92 million; 7.4 rating; third behind SNF (16.74 million) and Fox Game of the Week (17.58)
• Week 9: a 3% bump from the 2020 NFL season
• Week 8: TNF -- with 20.26 million viewers, only behind SNF with 21.29 million viewers; MNF far behind with 13.92 million viewers
• Week 7: TNF -- a weak matchup but "the TV ratings will leave the NFL and its broadcast partners very pleased." Viewership for TNF week 7 marked a 26% increase from 2020 week 7 TNF;
  

We'll quit there but that tells me everything I need to know.

**********************************
Special Crust Stuffing

From PowerLine, Saturday, November 27, 2021:

A Closer Look At The Nikolai Federal Well Just Reported By Oasis -- #35483 -- November 29, 2021

The Oasis Nikolai Federal wells are tracked here.

The parent well, because these wells are still confidential, not sure which way they run, but it appears they run to the north ((?). If so, the one well in that drilling unit is #20266. Again, this is all conjecture. The nearest wells are one mile to the west, Equinor wells, and there are subtle hints there, but I can't say anything for sure.

• 20266, 777, Oasis, Wold Federal 15-33H, Banks, t3/12; cum 169K 9/21: was off line during the exact two months that the Nikolai Federal well (#35483) was off line. Note the huge jump in production, from around 750 bbls/month to 5,500 bbls/month, a 7x increase:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	5522	5201	10000	17750	16904	522
BAKKEN	8-2021	14	1265	1806	18391	6327	5518	384
BAKKEN	7-2021	16	3154	3067	7664	8827	8316	287
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	5474	5133	19015	4406	2966	1140
BAKKEN	5-2021	13	1200	942	5800	3185	2966	99
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	479	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	933	718	730	2860	2547	3
BAKKEN	2-2021	25	622	495	350	2460	2207	3
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	738	733	440	2803	2491	2
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	744	942	460	2841	2525	6
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	786	700	520	2775	2473	2
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	656	712	310	2656	2278	68

The well:

• 35483, conf, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33B, middle Bakken; Banks, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 110K over four months; 33-053-08741; SESW 33-153-97; 321 FSL 1834 FWL
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2021	23540	92552
8-2021	27489	86538
7-2021	30111	80772
6-2021	26391	67770
5-2021	2722	7412

FracFocus:

• fracked 4/17/21 - 5/3/21
• water: 9,596,506 gallons
• fresh water by mass: 91.09279%
• produced water by mass: 0.06447%
• sand by mass: 8.62190%
• a gallon weight 8.34 pounds
• 9.596506 million gallons = 80.034860 million lbs
• 0.9115726 of ? = 80.034860 million lbs
• total pounds of proppant plus water: 87,798,668 lbs
• sand: 0.086219 * 97,798668 = 7.6 million lbs
• a small/moderate frack with lots of water;

Just Like Clockwork: "Focus On Fracking" -- Weekly Edition Posted -- Thirty-Four Active Rigs; Five Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- November 29, 2021

Link here. The lede:

SPR at a 18 yr low, gasoline supplies at 48 mo low, distillate supplies at 23 mo low; total inventories at an 82 month low... oil prices drop 13% on new Covid variant; Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 18-year-low as US plans further withdrawals; another 48 month low for gasoline inventories; a 23 month low for distillate inventories, and an 82 month low for total inventories...

Regular gasoline at our corner service station over the weekend: $2.89 / gallon.  

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$71.70	11/29/2021	11/29/2020	11/29/2019	11/29/2018	11/29/2017
Active Rigs	34	14	57	66	55

Monday, November 29, 2021: 40 for the month, 43 for the quarter, 294 for the year:

• 38269, conf, CLR, Jensen 9-H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
• 38237, conf, CLR, Jensen 11-8HSL1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
• 36897, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-7XH, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 43K 9/21;

Sunday, November 28, 2021: 37 for the month, 40 for the quarter, 291 for the year:

• 38270, conf, CLR, Middlestadt 9-17H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  
• 36818, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 12-2-3H, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 55K 9/21;
  

RBN Energy: the Spire STL natural gas pipeline and the new challenge to already-built assets. Archived.

Determining whether to approve plans for interstate natural gas pipeline projects has never been an easy task for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. There are so many things to consider, chief among them the need for the pipeline, impacts on the environment and landowners along the route, and what it all means for gas customers. But as complicated as the decision-making process may be, at least pipeline developers, gas producers, and customers knew that once a new pipeline was approved by FERC, permitted, built, and put into service that the matter was closed — that is, the pipeline was here to stay.

Now, in the wake of a groundbreaking court ruling on a new gas pipeline near St. Louis, things are not so certain. As it turns out, we’re intimately familiar with the matter, having just made the case that the 65-mile Spire STL Pipeline is an important addition to the regional pipeline network that provides supply diversity, improved reliability, and access to lower-cost gas. In today’s RBN blog, we consider the evolution of FERC regulation of gas pipelines and the new uncertainty that all affected parties face.

Decades ago, back when natural gas pipelines themselves bought and controlled most of the supply in the gas market, the process for certifying new pipelines was especially complicated and arduous. In essence, the pipeline company needed to prove to FERC beyond the shadow of a doubt not only that the proposed pipeline was really needed by real, provable demand, but that there was sufficient gas supply at the upstream end of the pipe to serve customers through the project’s lifecycle.

Typically, that high bar was met via what you might call a package deal under which gas producers made long-term commitments to supply gas (and show that they had sufficient reserves of gas in place), pipeline companies contracted to buy and transport the gas, and local distribution companies (LDCs) committed to buy the gas from the pipeline. The pipeline’s bundled rates included charges for the gas itself and a range of services: transportation, storage, and peak shaving. Everything was locked down.

That all changed in 1992 with FERC Order 636.

It said that gas pipelines would only transport and store gas, not buy and sell it, and that shippers would essentially rent space on pipelines between two or more points.

Where gas came from and where it went was no longer the pipeline’s business — the new buzzwords were “open access” and “unbundled.”

To give structure to how new facilities are reviewed in the post-Order 636 world, after some experience in the unbundled market, FERC in 1999 issued a statement of policy laying out the hurdles that need to be cleared to get project approval.

One such hurdle was a requirement for firm precedent agreements on the project (commitments to sign firm service contracts when the project goes into service) to demonstrate customer demand and the need for capacity. In addition, many other standards were incorporated in the process having to do with the impact on other customers of the same pipeline, on competitors, on landowners, etc. (Pipelines already had to clear the very high hurdle of an environmental analysis under the National Environmental Policy Act, through either an environmental assessment or an environmental impact statement if it was warranted.) Notwithstanding these standards in the policy statement, reliance on precedent agreements became the primary test of need in most cases.

The Shale Revolution gave a new urgency to getting new gas pipelines (and pipeline reversals and expansions) approved and built. Production in the Marcellus, Permian, and other shale plays was taking off and producers needed to add capacity fast to keep pace. Getting approvals for supply-push pipeline reversal projects was relatively easy in that they typically had little or no environmental impact, but some greenfield pipelines (especially in the enviro-conscious Northeast) proved tougher to advance, and some didn’t make it past the finish line. Also, there was growing resistance (and not just in the Northeast) from landowners and communities about the eminent domain rights that come with a FERC certificate. (Eminent domain is the power for an entity to take private property from another entity for a valid public purpose.) The transfer of federal eminent domain to a private pipeline developer was added to the Natural Gas Act by Congress in 1947, making the issuance of a certificate to construct a much bigger deal than it had been.

Since 2018, FERC has been exploring possible changes to the 1999 policy statement on the certification of new interstate pipelines. Among other things, FERC has been examining the role of precedent agreements and landholder interests in the decision whether to grant a certificate that includes eminent domain; the commission’s evaluation of project alternatives; and — most recently, in a draft Notice of Inquiry (NOI) filed in February 2021 — the impacts of proposed projects on greenhouse gas emissions and “environmental justice communities.” Those matters will be discussed and decided over time.

The rest of the story at the link.