Focus On Dividends -- April 17, 2024

Locator: 47031INVESTING.

 Does Tesla or Rivian pay a dividend? Asking for a friend.

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More Tech 

Folks can check my recent comments on personal investing. LOL. Posted on the blog in almost "real time."

To the best of my knowledge I've never owned MU until recently. On the blog. I mentioned that MU was one of the chip companies I missed but made up for it in the past six weeks. Again, on the blog.

Hold that thought.

My position in TSM was started well before Warren Buffett bought and then sold his position, all in about a three-month time span. Again, on the blog.

Hold that thought.

Link here. Here it is.

I'm not sure about Jennifer's note re TSM: that was already announced. Nothing new as far as I know.

On another note, see this post.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

Tomorrow: “Theme from A Summer Place.” Link here. Marimba, Fred Astaire.

WTI Plunges -- April 17, 2024

Locator: 47030B.

Red Sea? Link here.

WTI: $82.69; a 3% drop; dropped $2.67 today; take your pick --

• peace breaks out in the Mideast; Israel and Iran call a truce (unlikely)
  
• JPow, yesterday, signals no rate cuts; oil traders sense a recession (likely)
  
• traders finally noted how strong the dollar is (partly true)
  
• whatever sanctions Biden plans to place on Venezuela, American companies operating there can continue to operate with no penalties or restrictions (true)
  
• the Permian is producing so much oil even apologists for Jane Nielson are considering replacing their EVs with ICE SUVs (completely bogus)
  

Jane Nielson: it turns out Jane Nielson continued to post articles on the Bakken. Her most recent (and apparently her last) was ten years ago, in 2014 -- link here. 

... some credible energy analysts estimate that at the highest rate of well replacement, tight oil production at the major plays: Bakken in North Dakota and adjacent states, and Eagle Ford in Texas, will eventually peak at a total production of around 2.3 million bbls/day by 2017. 

Most recently, the data shows that the Eagle Ford and the Bakken combined are producing 2.4 million bbls / day and unfettered the production from both combined could easily hit 3 million bbls / day. 

I can't talk to the Eagle Ford, but in the Bakken, operators are well below "peak" well replacement. Today there are only 37 active rigs in the Bakken. On the last day in 2014, there were 170 active rigs in the Bakken. Link here.

In November, 2014, North Dakota was producing 1.19 million bbls of crude oil with 170 active rigs. In November, 2023, North Dakota was producing 1.28 million bbls of crude oil with 40 active rigs.

And, of course, the experts don't even want to discuss the Permian when talking peak oil. LOL.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

Twelve Enerplus wells just approved for confidential status:

• NWNE 10-149-93, Dunn County:
• Troop, Canidae, Fennec, Sly, Vulpes, Kit, Renard, Swift,
• SESE 10-144-93:
• four MC-Kudrna permits

Five permits renewed:

• CLR: five Harms West Federal permits, SESW 32-153-93

RMDs For Inherited IRAs -- Relief For Some Through 2024 -- Posted April 17, 2024

Locator: 47029TAXES.

Links are everywhere. This is one: https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2024/04/17/irs-extends-rmd-tax-relief-for-inherited-iras/104140/.    

TWSJ also has the story.

Many Americans who inherited retirement accounts since 2020 won’t be required to start pulling money out this year after the Internal Revenue Service said it was further postponing enforcement of a law passed in 2019.

Part of the law required most inheritors other than spouses to empty IRAs within 10 years, not over their lifetimes, as was previously allowed. Many heirs interpreted this to mean that they could hold off pulling money out until year 10, allowing them to time their withdrawals to lower their taxes while the balances continued to grow.

Then, in February 2022, the IRS proposed rules mandating annual withdrawals for these inheritors during that 10-year period, if the original account owner had already been taking distributions.

After complaints from taxpayers and financial-services companies over how to follow the new rules, the IRS said it wouldn’t impose penalties for missing required minimum distributions, or RMDs, until the details could be finalized, essentially allowing these inheritors to skip taking money out. That reprieve has now been extended through 2024.

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The Book Page

Wow, wow, wow. How many times have I advised folks: never quit reading.

There are at least two great essays in the current issue of The New York Review, April 18, 2024.

One of them: "A Hell of a Performance," Andrew Delbanco, pp. 51+.

A book review of The Naked and the Dead and Selected Letters, 1945 - 1946, by Norman Mailer, edited by J. Michael Lennon, Libraryof America, 834 pp. The book was published in 1948. Last year, 2023, was the 75th anniversary.

Coincidentally I'm slogging my way through The Naked and the Dead. I just mentioned it yesterday. I keep notes on the book here.

A digression: I'm in the Bat Cave, with several opened books on my Stickley desk, sitting in a Stickley chair, watching TCM in the background on a big-screen monitor -- "North By Northwest" -- I need more than two hands to count the number of times I've seen this movie. LOL.

And then reading The New York Review which just arrived today and coming across the review of Norman Mailer's book. It will probably take me a year to complete the book. I read a few pages every so often, taking notes to keep track of the story.

What else am I reading? Plane Trigonometry With Four-Place Tables, Arthur W Weeks and H. Gray Funkhouser, first copyright, 1943.

I never took trigonometry in high school but needed it for second semester calculus in first year of college. My calculus professor said not to worry; he gave me the small green hard-cover monograph when I read over Christmas vacation -- and that's all I had to prepare for second semester calculus. I received an "A" in both semesters of calculus, first year college. 

This summer I will be working with Sophia on a number of subjects and will eventually have to introduce her to trig. I won't be able to teach her trig; I don't understand it well enough. When she takes the subject in school, I will need to know trig to be able to help her. Her dad, a nuclear engineer, will be her real teacher.

Can You Spot The "Error" In This Conclusion? Hint: Statistics Start With The Arresting Office -- Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Locator: 47028NYC.

Link here.

The effort lasted .... drum roll .... one week.

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The Book Page

First, in passing, the Bronze Age, link here.

• material culture
• Bronze Age: third phase (Europe, Asia, the Middle East)
• follows the Paleolithic (Old Stone Age) and the Neolithic (New Stone Age)
• first period in which metal was used
• Greece/China: began before 3000 BCE
• Britain: 1900 BCE
• beginning of the period sometimes called Chalcolithic (copper-stone) Age
• use of copper known in eastern Anatolia (Turkey) by 6500 BCE)
• by 3500 BCE: copper tools / weapons --> urbanization of Mesoptomia
• by 3000 BCE: use of copper throughout the Middle East, Mediterranean and entering the European Neolithic cultures
• early copper phase is commonly thought of as part of the Bronze Age (copper + tin)
• 1500 BCE: bronze common, invention of the wheel; ox-drawn plow
• 1000 BCE: ability to heat and forge another metal, iron --> end of Bronze Age and beginning of Iron Age

Now, comes two books about 1177 BC, the fall of Egypt, and end of civilization, by Erick H. Cline, Princeton University Press.

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The Sea People

Toward the end of the Bronze Age, "Sea People" invaded eastern Anatolia (Turkey), particularly 1200 BCE (note date of Trojan War)

Trojan War: ends the Bronze Age.

Sea People ended the Hittite Empire.

Egyptians waged two wars against the Sea Peoples:

• 1236 - 1223 BCE, King Merneptah; and,
• 1198- 1166 BCE, Ramses III, 

That is the subject of 1177 B.C. by Eric H. Cline.

Tentative identifications of the Sea Peoples listed in Egyptian documents:

• Ekwesh
• Bronze Age Greeks (Achaeans; Ahhiyawa in Hittite texts)
• think Trojan War
  
• Teresh, Tyrrhenians:
• sailors and pirates from Anatolia; ancestors of the Etruscans
• Luka
• a coastal people of western Anatolia; classical Lyci on wouthwest corner of Anatolia
• Sherden
• probably Sardinians (Sardinians, not sardines)
  
• Shekelesh
• probably identical to the Sicilian tribe, the Siculi
• Peleset
• Philistines, who perhaps came from Crete and were the only major tribe of teh Sea Peopls to settle permanently in Palestine

This becomes part of Sophia's "15-minute binder."

My Favorite Chart -- Updated -- March, 2024, Data

Locator: 47027MMF.

Link here. 

First month in about a year that total MMF funds have dropped, albeit ever so slightly.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- April 17, 2024

Locator: 47026B.

Link here.

• US oil in storage is 1% below the five-year average; now at 460 million, with the addition of 2.7 million bbls this past week
• imports, crude oil: background noise
• refiners: 88.1% capacity
• jet fuel supplied up a paltry 0.8% compared to same four-week period last year

WTI: after dropping significantly over past few days, has now dropped another 1% after weekly petroleum report. 

New Well Oil Production Data Released -- April, 2024

Locator: 47025B.

Also, link here:

New well production:

• oil: Bakken > Eagle Ford
• natural gas: Bakken > Permian

EIA Dashboards:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Amazon -- April 17, 2024

Locator: 47024AMAZON.

Market: not a bubble. Market up today despite JPow indicating no rate cuts this year. Buzz: next rate cut -- NET March, 2025. 

A stand-alone because I've mentioned Amazon a lot today and over the years.

Now this today, from Yahoo!Finance headlines:

Link to Bloomberg: 

Apparently Americans understand and like "value."

The increase shows Amazon’s promise of fast delivery on a wide assortment of goods continues to have strong appeal with shoppers grappling with inflation despite greater online competition from Walmart Inc. and China-linked companies such as TikTok Shop, Shein and Temu. [Note: Target not mentioned.]

US consumers pay Amazon $140 a year or $15 per month for Prime subscription, which includes shipping discounts and the ad-supported Prime Video streaming service.

Prime membership growth flattened after the pandemic, and Consumer Intelligence Research Partners last year predicted the online retailer had hit a plateau.

The most recent data, showing 75% of US shoppers have Prime memberships, is a clear indication that Amazon is still gaining new subscribers.

The increase suggests US consumers believe “their Amazon shopping habit justifies the investment in Prime membership,” the Chicago research firm said Tuesday in its report.

Is that accurate: 75% of US shoppers have Prime memberships

I finally -- some days ago -- started a position in AMZN. Remember: I have a rolling 30-year horizon.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

Walmart: 90% of Americans live within fifteen minutes / ten miles of a Walmart.

Amazon: 99% of Americans live within a mouse click of Amazon. 

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Reminder: Truist

Combination of Winston-Salem, North Carolina BB&T (Branch Banking and Trust Company) with Atlanta-based Sun Trust Banks.

Truist Financial retains BB&T's stock price history and operates under BB&T's charter. 

Bank of America: headquartered in Charlotte, NC. 

Charlotte: an hour south of Winston-Salem on I-85. 

Duke University: an hour east of Winston-Salem. Chapel Hill northwest of Raleigh.

There really are a lot of great "centers of excellence" in the US.

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SCCO

Recently cuts its quarterly dividend from a dollar to 80 cents.

Currently pays about 2.8%.

Shares bought five years ago, April 26, 2019, at $38.93, are now yielding 8.2%.

Starbucks -- April 17, 2024

Locator: 47023STARBUCKS.

Starbucks: most surprising to me. It is amazing how often SBUX shows up in social media on investing. Personally, I don't get it.

Sometimes I think mom-and-pop investors, social media investors, etc., over-think things.

See this post. 

One year look back and comparing with a well-known "utility":

And Enbridge pays over 8%.

Due to any number of other factors (MOJO, YOLO, FOMO, pumping) SBUX may surge, but I certainly don't expect much out of Starbucks as a coffee-shop going forward.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

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Schwab's Perspective

Previously posted: link here.

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CVX

From TipRanks.

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Tech Today -- At The Opening

Chips:

• NVDA: up 1%
  
• AMD: down 0.4%.
  
• MU: up 1.45%.
  
• INTC: down 0.6%.

Manufacturing:

• TSM: up 1.7%

Retail Memberships -- April 17, 2024

Locator: 47022RETAIL.

Retail memberships: Target, Walmart, Amazon.

Newest: Target 360 just announced.

Walmart: Paramount.

Amazon: Prime Video

Target 360: nothing.

Membership programs side-by-side.

Target 360:

• same-day delivery from Target stores
• free two-day shipping on eligible items

Amazon Prime:

• same-delivery in many areas for most products (not including third party who ship themselves)
• all shipping is free -- not just "two-day shipping on eligible items"

Price, Target 360:

• promotion: $49 / annual membership; and $49 / year with a Target debit or credit card
• as of May 18, 2024: $99 / year without a Target debit or credit card

Wow, I was unaware what a great deal Amazon Prime was -- compare with Target, Walmart.

Annually, Amazon Prime is just $39 extra which includes Amazon Prime and with the Amazon Firestick, it's incredible how much content one gets. Add YouTube or Hulu and wow, there's not much you can't find. 

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Social Media

The other day I saw a note on social media from someone who felt he/she was being "extorted" each month when he/she paid his/her monthly internet / streaming bill.

Many chimed in after that with examples of prices that ranged from well below $100 to well above $200 on a monthly basis. But no additional information was provided, such as service provider, geographical location, services offered, etc. So, it was all bogus and irrelevant, except allowing folks to blow off steam. LOL.

What caught my attention was what a great deal everyone is getting considering how much information and content is available. Then add the convenience of shopping, paying bills, and investing through an on-line broker.

I would argue that the price most folks pay for internet and streaming services is an incredibly good deal.

Matterhorn Pipeline Update -- April 17, 2024

Locator: 47021PIPELINES.

Link to RBN Energy.

Permian E&Ps want to increase their crude oil production, but they are hemmed in — and at least a tad hesitant. As producers in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico know all too well, crude production growth can only happen if there is sufficient pipeline capacity in place to move not only the oil they extract, but also the massive volumes of associated gas that emerge with it. As we discussed recently in Come Dancing, takeaway capacity for gas is once again at the knife’s edge, and there really are no good alternatives to piping that incremental gas to market — for most producers, flaring at scale is no longer an acceptable. Luckily, there’s at least one gas-takeaway fix in the short-term: The greenfield, 2.5-Bcf/d Matterhorn Express gas pipeline will come online later this year.

But while Matterhorn will help, it’s likely to fill up quickly, meaning even more gas takeaway will be needed to keep crude production growing through the next decade. That may include the expansion of the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) system as well as installing some new pipes (See Come Dancing for our projections of new gas pipe capacity). Assuming that new gas pipeline capacity out of the Permian is added as needed, crude oil production growth in the basin will eventually drive the need for more takeaway capacity, especially to major Gulf Coast oil hubs. That growth could also drive the development of one or more of the new deepwater export terminals being planned off the Texas coast, which could spur additional pipeline capacity to feed those terminals.

Enbridge again:

Two companies are already stepping up their efforts to boost takeaway capacity, targeting their Permian-to-Corpus Christi pipe assets. Enbridge is planning to expand its 900-Mb/d Gray Oak crude oil pipeline by 120 Mb/d (see graphic at link). 

The company said the new capacity will be added in two phases that will conclude in early 2026. The current plan is notably less than the original announcement which was to add 200 Mb/d. That reduction could indicate that producers and shippers, whose commitments are critical in getting new pipeline capacity built, for one reason or another, are not yet compelled to sign up for capacity. 

In addition, it is our understanding that EPIC Midstream wants to add 300 Mb/d of new capacity to its namesake crude system (see graphic at link), although there are no timelines for it.

More on the Matterhorn natural gas pipeline here:

Let's see if my "rule of thumb" holds: my estimated cost -- $750 million. Unable to find FID cost.

Most Amazing Energy Story Ever? The Permian. Period. Dot. April 17, 2024

Locator: 47020B.

WTI: $84.85.

Thursday, April 18, 2024: 40 for the month; 40 for the quarter, 239 for the year
40141, conf, CLR, Veigel 8-9H,
39881, conf, Whiting, Van Buren Federal 5103 42-36 2B,
36086, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-0915H-7,

Wednesday, April 17, 2024: 37 for the month; 37 for the quarter, 236 for the year 
40140, conf, CLR, Veigel 7-9H1,
39466, conf, Hess, EN-Erickson-157-93-1003H-3,

RBN Energy: Permian pipeline takeaway constraints loom as Basin's oil output grows.

Crude oil output in the Permian Basin is now averaging 6.3 MMb/d, up about 400 Mb/d from year-ago levels and 800 Mb/d from April 2022. The gains — and related increases in associated gas — have spurred a new round of concerns about pipeline exit capacity, complicating drillers’ hopes to boost crude production. In today’s RBN blog, we will discuss the takeaway capacity issue and what it means for producers and pipeline operators, including those planning offshore crude export terminals.

Just for the fun of it, google Permian growth to slow.

When I did that, first hit, over at LinkedIn.

• dated February 9, 2024, this statement:

Although Permian production is anticipated to reach a new height of 5.974 million bpd, it signals the smallest monthly growth rate in recent times. Analysts project a deceleration in Permian growth compared to previous years, with forecasts ranging from an increase of 320,000 to 360,000 bpd.

And then this prominent link: 

What a doofus.