TGIF -- April 12, 2024

Locator: 46983B.

Most interesting tech story yesterday: Apple's announcement. I don't recall ever seeing something like this before. But for it to have any real impact, at least one more surprise needed. And two would be nice. [Later: on another down day for the market, AAPL jumps another $3. Folks may want to take a look at the 5-day chart.] Also, here.

Israel: it looks like they got those F-35A’s just in time. Netanyahu needs to send Biden a thank-you note. Link here.

NBA: Standings. Link here.

Verbcession:

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Red Queen On The Treadmill In Two Charts

It will get worse before it gets better. If it ever gets better.

Inflation watch: link here. 

Starbucks ticker:

Someone somewhere is trying to figure out a business plan to capture this opportunity.

Not working (and maybe even in worse shape):

• UberEats, Dash
• BlueApron

Possibly working (but not convinced): 

• Target, Walmart: one-hour delivery
• won't move the needle for investors but could further cut into visits at fast-food restaurants

Need to look at trends:

• folks returning to office; Covid lockdown over; such an event will never, ever return
• breakfast hours: only real growth
• in the 1950s, kids "drove" parents to McDonald's; ever smaller families, McDonald's has lost that edge
• southern surge? those folks need to eat
• is there something McDonald's can offer immigrants, low-income landscapers?
  
• with ubiquitous use of cell phones / cheap cellular data, wi-fi at fast-food restaurants no longer a plus
• when traveling, I no long have to stop at Starbucks / McDonald's for free wi-fi; I can stop at Love's which doesn't offer wi-fi; I can link through my phone
• for some reason, I am no longer throttled ever, it seems, no matter how much I use cellular data and I still have the same plan

But let's get a grip: even the worst one, McDonald's at 100% increase in prices -- this was over a decade! Get a grip. Rule of thumb in basic investing: double your money in eight to twelve years.  

Price of beer, link here:

• 2014 (ten years ago): $8.88
• 2024: north Texas, I can easily find quality, name-brand beer for $8.99 a six-pack; 
• the usual price I see is $10.99 but most weekends, beer goes on sale and in volume -- a 24-can case can easily get a six-pack for $8.99; one of our best buys lately has been Yuengling; most expensive I'll buy: Bitburger, $12.99.

 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $86.11.

Sunday, April 14, 2024: 25 for the month; 25 for the quarter, 224 for the year 
None.

Saturday, April 13, 2024: 25 for the month; 25 for the quarter, 224 for the year
40137, conf, CLR, Veigel 4-9H,
39464, conf, Hess, EN-Erickson-157-93-1003H-2,
38009, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth21-29 MBH,

Friday, April 12, 2024: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter, 221 for the year
40136, conf, CRL, Veigel 3-9H1, 

RBN Energy: plan to boost E15 gasoline will have big impact on refiners, retailers, drivers.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved a request by governors from eight Corn Belt states to remove a summertime waiver for Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) included in the Clean Air Act (CAA) for E10 gasoline, a 90/10 blend of petroleum-derived gasoline blendstock and ethanol. The motive for the governors’ request was a desire to increase sales of E15 gasoline and, by extension, boost ethanol/corn demand by putting it on the same summertime footing as E10. In granting the approval, the EPA conceded that the distribution system wasn’t ready for the change. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the decision and the impact it will have on refiners, retailers and drivers, and how it is likely to work against the Biden administration’s plans to keep a lid on gasoline prices. 

Corn growers and ethanol producers have long sought to increase ethanol’s usage as a gasoline blendstock, but in most cases government policy support has been necessary to accomplish this as petroleum-sourced gasoline is simply more economical when considering costs (especially logistics) and blend properties. Originally, the main rationale for increasing ethanol usage was domestic energy security and the desire to replace methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) with a more environmentally friendly octane booster. While direct subsidies for ethanol blending had been in place since the 1970s, the first Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) in 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 both provided mandates for using ethanol in gasoline. These and subsequent revisions to the RFS led to corn ethanol usage reaching a concentration of about 10% of the total gasoline pool.