Hopefully I Won't Regret Posting This -- April 1, 2020

I'm heading to bed so I won't see e-mail / comments until tomorrow. I might regret writing this, and it's against my better judgement to post this and then go to bed without thinking about it for awhile.

But, here I go.

We're well past the discussion of whether we're headed into a recession -- from my vantage point, it's much worse than that. I've been suggesting that for awhile but a note -- received just moments ago -- from a reader puts things in perspective.

Before reading the comments from that reader, think back to 1992 and how much has changed since then and how much economic growth the US has seen since 1992.

Now, having given that a moment's thought, read these comments from a very, very knowledgeable reader:

Just a few records & benchmarks hit this week:

Oil inventories up the most since October 2016; refinery utilization lowest since Hurricane Harvey; gasoline production lowest in 22 years; gasoline demand lowest since February 1992, and the biggest one week demand drop ever ...

Oh, and that crude oil in storage now near the five-year average for this time of year; it's also about 30% above the prior five-year average (i.e., 2010 to 2014) ... we've now had five fat years.

We haven't seen numbers like this since 1992. Let that sink in.

Now, think about it again, tomorrow morning, 8:30 a.m. CT, when we get the first time unemployment claims numbers.

And the media is hung up on the number of ventilators available and whether two US Navy hospital ships arrive in port on time.

About two weeks ago we were told that every airline would be "broke" by the end of April.

Bedtime reading.

First Of The Month -- January, 2020, Data Being Reported

This is a reminder for me. Some of these data bases have posted January, 2020, data. Others are still showing December, 2019, data as the most recent data available. 

Word for the day: pangolin. 

Links:

• EIA: Oil imports into the US
• EIA: Oil imports into the US from Saudi Arabia
• Non-EIA: Saudi Arabia production
• Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves: link here. 

Thursday:

• Econoday calendar
• first time unemployment claims: 2- to 4.5 million on top of the 3.3 million last week;

Friday:

• be sure to check Canadian dollar
• employment situation, US

Next week:

• atmospheric CO2

Love Him Or Hate Him, He Never Fails To Take An Issue Head-On -- April 1, 2020

Updates

Later, 10:46 p.m. CT: this is why I love the blog. In the original post, I wrote:

This is a most interesting poll. The results are interesting but that's not the most interesting part. See if you can guess what I think is most interesting about this poll. Link here. Don't write me with your thoughts. My answer "at eleven."

Well, it's almost eleven. This is what I find most interesting. People are starting to go crazy -- see this story --  and this is just April 1. It's not even April 2, and the "national lock down" has been extended to the end of April / early May. "We" will be lucky to get to mid-April. And if we do, it will still be another two weeks.

Here in the local area, we've already seen signs of civil disobedience -- and we live in a very, very upscale, law-abiding, quiet area of Grapevine, TX. And it looks like the calm, quiet, law-abiding citizens are already upset with the city council and the local police going a bit too far in trying to keep people locked up -- even though there is no "stay-at-home" order. Yet.

Yes, this is going to get very interesting very fast. You can only push people so far.

[Later: just after posting the above, I checked PowerLine, and there it is, another example: people turning on people in France. Earlier I said to myself, the president suggests that we will be in lock down at least until May 3. I 'm doubting we will get to mid-April. What I need to hear is a game plan, a strategy for getting back to work. I've not heard that game plan, that strategy from anyone. If the CDC had its way, we would be in lock down until June, 2021.]

Original Post

How many American lives did he just save?

We'll never know, will we?

This is a most interesting poll. The results are interesting but that's not the most interesting part. See if you can guess what I think is most interesting about this poll. Link here. Don't write me with your thoughts. My answer "at eleven."

Gasoline demand:

See Rasmussen poll above.

Cable news wrap: link here.

The first quarter of 2020 was filled to the brim with news, from the impeachment trial of President Trump and the contentious Democratic primary to the growing coronavirus pandemic, but MSNBC failed to add viewers, and experts say that's a serious issue for the far-left network.

Fox News grew 38 percent among total viewers during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same time period last year, and MSNBC's liberal rival CNN grew 26 percent, while MSNBC finished the quarter with roughly the same viewership as Q1 of 2019.

It was even worse for MSNBC when it comes to the key news demographic of adults age 25-54, as Fox News grew 42 percent and CNN grew 27 percent, while MSNBC dropped by one percent – losing viewers during, arguably, the most newsworthy quarter in a decade.

I didn't really think about the cable news network story and had not planned to post it until I looked at MSNBC's flagship. See link. 

Thirteen Permits Renewed Including Nine Jersey Federal Permits -- ND Rigs Hold Steady At 43 -- April 1, 2020

Active rigs:

$21.20	4/1/2020	04/01/2019	04/01/2018	04/01/2017	04/01/2016
Active Rigs	43	65	60	50	29

No new permits. The "daily activity report" shows one new permit, but in fact, the file number suggests that it should have been posted March 31, 2020 -- yesterday.

Thirteen permits renewed:

• CLR (9): nine Jersey Federal permits in Mountrail County
• NP Resources (3): three Gracie State permits, all in Billings County
• Hess: an AN-Double Bar V permit in McKenzie County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 35686, NC/F, BR, Tailgunner 1A MBH, 33-053-08802; North Fork, t--; cum --; drilled to depth, but not completed; TD - 21,211 feet; target: middle Bakken; target depth: 20' into the middle Bakken; wells not reporting an IP when they come off confidential list or SI/NC list are tracked here.
• from the file report:
• 1280-acre drilling unit;
• vertical began: September 21, 2019; 11: 30 p.m. CDT;
• KOP reached: September 22, 2019, 3:00 p.m. CDT;
• curve: 
• started at 12:15 a.m. CDT, September 23, 2019
• curve completed, 3:00 p.m. CDT, September 23, 2019
• lateral:
• began at 10:30 a.m. CDT, September 28, 2019;
• TD called at 12:57 p.m. CDT, October 4, 2019; 
• trip gas of 8,310 units reported;

More, Much More -- 13.8 Million Bbls More -- April 1, 2020

Updates

Later, 11:36 p.m. CT: see first comment, and reply. Comment:

Just a few records & benchmarks hit this week:

Oil inventories up the most since October 2016; refinery utilization lowest since Hurricane Harvey; gasoline production lowest in 22 years; gasoline demand lowest since February 1992, and the biggest one week demand drop ever ...

Oh, and that crude oil in storage now near the five-year average for this time of year; it's also about 30% above the prior 5 year average (ie, 2010 to 2014)...we've now had five fat years..

Original Post 

Link here.

• US crude oil in storage increased by an unprecedented 13.8 million bbls;
• US crude oil in storage now at 469.2 million bbls, near the five-year average for this time of year -- simply near the average -- "they" say;
• US oil imports: averaged 6.0 million bopd, down by 70,000 bopd from the week before
• refiners operating at 82.3% of their capacity; lowest in recent history?
• total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.1 million b/d, down 2.2% 
• gasoline: 8.7 million b/d, down almost 6%
• distillate fuel: 4.0 million b/d, down by almost 5.5%
• jet fuel supplied: down 16.4% compared with same four-week period last year

Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 58	January 3, 2020	-11.5	429.9
Week 59	January 8, 2020	1.2	431.1
Week 60	January 15, 2020	-2.5	428.5
Week 61	January 23, 2020	-0.4	428.1
Week 62	January 29, 2020	3.5	431.7
Week 63	February 5, 2020	3.4	435.0
Week 64	February 12, 2020	7.5	442.5
Week 65	February 20, 2020	0.4	442.9
Week 66	February 26, 2020	0.5	443.3
Week 67	March 4, 2020	0.8	444.1
Week 68	March 11, 2020	7.7	451.8
Week 68	March 18, 2020	2.0	453.7
Week 69	March 25, 2020	1.6	455.4
Week 70	April 1, 2020	13.8	469.2

Jet fuel:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Week Ending	Change
Week 0	March 11, 2020	-12.80%
Week 1	March 18, 2020	-12.6%
Week 2	March 25, 2020	-8.9%
Week 3	April 1, 2020	-16.4%

Crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports
Week	Week Ending	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change
Week 0	March 11, 2029	6.4	0.174
Week 1	March 18, 2020	6.5	0.127
Week 2	March 25, 2020	6.1	-0.422
Week 3	April 1, 2020	6.0	-0.070

Notes From All Over -- Mid-Morning Edition -- April 1, 2020

Fracking in Idaho? I did not know. Strongest earthquake in 40 years -- magnitude 6.5, centered 78 miles from Boise, ID.

Private Idaho, B-52s March: in like a lamb, out like a lion.

Fargo:

Notes From All Over, Early Morning Edition -- Somehow We Made It To April; Only Three More Months To Go -- The Index Case? -- April 1, 2020

Remember her cough? There is now talk that Hillary was the index case in the US.  

Bakken 101: Over at twitter today, for some odd reason:

• See "API" tag.
• Heavy vs light oil: a primer. 
• Bakken crude oil assay. 

Perhaps more later. I'm tracking down Hillary's travel schedule starting two years ago or so. Did she travel to Wuhan City, Hubei, China?  This would explain a lot.

Path to replacing Biden? No convention, no delegate voting, DNC to decide?

Rasmussen:

This is a most interesting poll. The results are interesting but that's not the most interesting part. See if you can guess what I think is most interesting about this poll. Link here.

Whiting Files; Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- April 1, 2020

First things first, humor, from PowerLine:

Whiting files:

Four themes over at twitter this morning:

• Saudi says it has done what it said it would do: 12.3 million bopd just left port; giving their lifeblood away; most of it probably came from storage; most doubt it really came from new production;
• US with several options on the table: talking with OPEC+; banning US refiners from using foreign oil; "not buy" but fill SPR with US crude oil to ease storage problems; 
• Russia says it won't increase production; not talking to Saudi Arabia
• not really a theme, but a single note: Petrobras to increase production cuts by 200,000 bopd 

******************************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$20.27	4/1/2020	04/01/2019	04/01/2018	04/01/2017	04/01/2016
Active Rigs	43	65	60	50	29

Two wells coming off confidential list today -- Wednesday, April 1, 2020: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 257 for the year:

• 35051, 2,184, Whiting, Lassey 21-22H, 33-053-08577, Glass Bluff, t10/19; cum 90K 1/20;
  
• 34163, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 5-22-15-157N-100W TFH, Marmon,

RBN Energy: crude prices crash, pipeline constraints push Alberta's wCS to all-time low. Archived.

The collapse in WTI prices in March has been a crushing blow to the Permian, the Bakken and other U.S. shale plays that produce light, sweet crude oil. But as bad as sub-$25/bbl WTI prices are — especially for producers whose balance-of-2020 volumes aren’t at least partly hedged at higher prices — consider the record-low, $5/bbl prices facing oil sands producers up north in Alberta. Western Canadian Select, the energy-rich region’s benchmark heavy-crude blend, fell below $10/bbl more than a week ago, and on Tuesday WCS closed at $5.08/bbl. Producers, who already had been dealing with major takeaway constraints, are ratcheting back their output and planned 2020 capex, and slashing the volumes they send out via rail in tank cars. Today, we begin a short blog series on the latest round of bad news hitting Western Canada’s oil patch.

Oil sands producers have a lot in common with George Chuvalo, a boxing legend in Canada. A five-time Canadian heavyweight champion, Chuvalo, now 82 years old, is best known for never being knocked to the mat in his 93 professional bouts, even when he fought the likes of Muhammad Ali (twice), George Foreman and “Smokin’ Joe” Frazier. After his 15-round challenge to Ali’s world heavyweight title in 1966, which Chuvalo lost by decision, the Canadian boxer bragged, “When it was all over, (Ali) was the guy who went to the hospital ... Me? I went dancing with my wife.” (Ali had called Chuvalo “the toughest guy I ever fought.”) Like Chuvalo, producers in the oil sands have been pummeled and knocked against the ropes many times, most recently by pipeline-project delays and dizzyingly steep price discounts, but they have remained standing –– seeing stars, maybe, but still upright, if only barely.

The three oil sands areas in northern Alberta — the giant Athabasca deposits and the smaller Peace River and Cold Lake areas — together cover only ~55,000 square miles (about one-fifth the size of Texas, or of Alberta) but they contain proven reserves equivalent to more than 160 billion barrels of crude oil, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other sources. As the Shale Era has reminded everyone, though, simply having vast hydrocarbon reserves in the ground isn’t enough­­. Production costs and the cost of delivering product to market need to be competitive if an area is to continue drawing investment — at least over the long-term in the case of areas with higher upfront development costs.