Wednesday, July 15, 2020

How To Spot Neowise -- July 15, 2020

Visible:
  • particularly in the northern hemisphere
  • entire month of July; maybe into August
  • comet will be closest to earth on July 23, 2020, and then again, July 23, 9020 (or thereabouts)
Quick, after July 14th, may require binoculars, and may require low-light pollution location:
  • take out iPhone
  • click on "weather" icon
  • note time of sunset
  • one hour after sunset walk outside and start looking
  • look to the northwest
  • take out iPhone again
  • click "skyview lite" icon
  • locate the Big Dipper
  • extend arm not holding the iPhone; make a fist
  • "three fists" below the bottom of the Big Dipper
    • which is hanging upside down by its handle high above
    • and from there, perhaps a little to the right
  • that's where comet Neowise is hanging out
July 23rd, closest to earth, but binoculars or telescope will be needed by then;
  • locate Big Dipper
  • draw an imaginary line through the two stars at the bottom of the Big Dipper's bowl
  • follow that imaginary line toward the lower left to a point in the sky a little more than one fist away
Another option:
If you prefer to read instructions in wordy paragraphs, continue.

From skyandtelescope.org:
To spot Comet NEOWISE, first find a location that has a nice open view very low to the northeast. Then be prepared to be outside and searching no later than 1 hour and 50 minutes before your local sunrise time. The eastern sky will already be starting to show the first signs of the coming dawn.
Venus will be shining low and brilliant off to the right, in the east-northeast. In your northeast direction will be one bright star. That’s Capella, your starting point.
“Look far to Capella’s lower left, by somewhat more that the width of your clenched fist at arm’s length,” suggests Diana Hannikainen (pronounced HUN-ih-KY-nen), Sky & Telescope’s Observing Editor. That’s where Comet NEOWISE will be hanging out. Look for a faint, fuzzy little “star” with a fainter, fuzzier little tail extending upward from it.
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DAPL Can Keep Flowing During Legal Fight -- At Least Through Next Thursday? -- US Court Of Appeals -- July 15, 2020

DAPL pipeline can keep running amid legal fight: US court of appeals. At this link sounds like this is only good for a week giving lawyers a chance to submit paperwork.
The Dakota Access Pipeline may continue to pump crude oil through South Dakota (sic) after a federal appellate court on Tuesday temporarily blocked a shutdown ordered by a lower court that was to begin next month.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit issued an administrative stay that will be in effect at least through next Thursday while the pipeline's operator, Energy Transfer LP, and its opponents file briefs. The company is appealing the lower court's shutdown order and asking it be blocked pending the final outcome of its appeal.


Link here.
The Dakota Access oil pipeline can continue to operate amid an ongoing court battle, a U.S. Appeals Court said on Tuesday, setting aside for now a lower court’s order earlier this month to shut and empty the line.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia granted Dakota Access, controlled by Energy Transfer LP, an administrative stay while it considers whether the line, long opposed by local tribes and environmental activists, should be shut due to permitting issues dating to 2017.
Tuesday’s ruling means oil can keep flowing through the 570,000-barrel-per-day pipeline, which runs from North Dakota’s oil production fields to Midwest and Gulf Coast refineries.
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Whiting / KOG Vance Wells In Truax Oil Field Have Been Completed; Production Data Updated --July 15, 2020

The Whiting/KOG P Vance, Vance, and Vance Federal wells are tracked here.

The wells have all been completed, and have now been updated. Most remarkable is the steep decline rate. My hunch is that the decline rate is impacted by wells being choked back due to plummeting oil prices during this period.
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Bakken Wells Come Back Strong When Taken Off Line For Months -- July 15, 2020

The Hess SC-Gene wells are tracked here.  

 The wells on that pad have all been updated. Most of the wells had been shut-in for quite some time but when brought back link, production was very, very good.

Regular readers are aware of the reason for posting this example.

Example:

The well:
  • 33609, 1,387, Hess, SC-Gene-154-98-0805H-4, Truax, t8/18; cum 127K 5/20; offline as of 11/18; remains off line 9/19;
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20203112121121461451240752391851497
BAKKEN4-20202710627106001947726127239812069
BAKKEN3-2020271018910185130412527024715488
BAKKEN2-202029115551153316568258952574198
BAKKEN1-20203111316115412234424930190615792
BAKKEN12-20192810610103382347022283398918294
BAKKEN11-2019297584752921889165448116462
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-201900130000
BAKKEN1-201931093108020622468182450
BAKKEN12-201800440000
BAKKEN11-201813379938281046974436126829
BAKKEN10-201823924893192296318314103777918
BAKKEN9-20183021024211794206040353239037934
BAKKEN8-2018191736717068336272696557726388
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No New Permits Issued Today -- July 15, 2020

Quatro amigos: of the four most commonly followed "oils" -- WTI crude, Brent crude, OPEC basket, and Urals -- two of the four were up today; two decreased. OPEC and the Urals both decreased.

Gasoline demand, link here:



*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$41.207/15/202007/15/201907/15/201807/15/201707/15/2016
Active Rigs1158675829

No new permits issued today.

Twenty-four permits renewed -- the eighth consecutive day that 20+ permits have been renewed in the ND Bakken:
  • Bruin (10): ten Forth Berthold permits, all in section 19-148-94, Dunn County;
  • CLR (5): two Olympia permits; two Charleston permits, and a Juneau permit all in Williams County;
  • Lime Rock (5): three Mariner permits in Burke County and two Reuben Schneider permits in Dunn County;
  • XTO (3): one Harley Federal permit in McKenzie County
  • Whiting: one USA Federal permit in McKenzie County
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Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- July 15, 2020

Mideast on the brink: tracked at the sidebar at the right. Within that link, a sub-line: "Israeli target practice" has been added for the "mysterious events of 2020." Mysterious, LOL. Today we add an update: seven boats catch on fire at shipyard nearest Iran's only nuclear power plant. Links everywhere I assume.

The problem with falling in love with one's holdings. One of Warren Buffet's favorite holdings -- from CNN Business  --
Wells Fargo has gone from one of America's strongest big banks to easily the weakest. 
For years, Wells Fargo's laundry list of scandals and legal problems had only a fleeting impact on its once-monstrous bottom line. That is no longer the case. 
Wells Fargo (WFC) is the only major lender during the pandemic to lose money -- its first loss since the 2008 financial crisis. And that red ink was driven in large part by the crushing penalties imposed two years ago by the Federal Reserve for abusing customers. 
Wells Fargo is such a mess that it's being forced to slash its coveted dividend. During the Great Recession, Wells Fargo was so strong that it was among the last of the banks to touch its dividend. Today, it's the first.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

AAPL: BofA raises AAPL price target to $410/share.

Philadelphia: no NFL for at least a year. Memo to Philadelphia Eagles. Previously posted. Sort of.

 Tesla: to shut down factory in Fremont for improvements.

RBG: back home.

Dak Prescott: Cowboys, miss deadline.

Portland: Portland demonstrators are focusing on "Federal" building in downtown Portland.
The Portland mayor says the best thing the federal government could do would be to leave downtown Portland. The Portland mayor was also upset that graffiti had not yet been cleaned of federal building in downtown Portland.

I wish Trump would announce that the Federal government is re-locating the Portland federal building outside of Oregon, and they will raze the downtown Portland federal building. Oregonians requiring passports/visas, etc., can do it all by mail with out-of-state Federal facilities. This is not rocket science.
Grillin' time: a Minnesota reader sent this link to local grocery store ad -- t-bone steak at $6.99 / lb.

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Connecting The Dots In The Mideast -- July 15, 2020

The other day I mentioned that "no one" was connecting the dots regarding Israeli target practice. A reader took me to task for posting that. Whatever.

Today, it was reported that seven boats caught on fire at the shipyard nearest Iran's only nuclear power plant. I was curious who was reporting the story. Here's the graphic, screenshot taken at 4:17 p.m. CDT, July 15, 2020. Again, where is the NYT, the WaPo, CNBC, MSNBC, etc?

Again, Fox News led the pack: then England (2) and France.

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Random Update Of The MRO Erickson Well In Reunion Bay -- July 15, 2020

This page will not be updated.

Update of entire pad pending.

This well:
  • 36431, drl/A, MRO, Erickson 31-4H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 132K 4/20; a 50K month; cum 151K 5/20; remained on line through 5/20 meltdown;
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20203118743188071149523590021986
BAKKEN4-20203025427254511599629126027141
BAKKEN3-20203140291405622778442873039930
BAKKEN2-20202748375491943936247041043957
BAKKEN1-2020917718163871585215688014587
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Random Update Of A Huge Marathon Salveson USA Well -- July 15, 2020

The well:
  • 34601, drl-->drl/NC, MRO, Salveson USA 24-21H, Reunion Bay, update here;  
Production, in 2/20, the 34K in 15 days extrapolates to 68K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20203135603356452001752348050209
BAKKEN4-20203053827538954543765539062381
BAKKEN3-20202946754468204499052231049489
BAKKEN2-20201533998335896597440193038217
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Random Update Of The CLR Steele Federal Wells -- July 15, 2020

The CLR Steele Federal wells are tracked here. 

This page will not be updated.


The wells:
  • 31522, SI/A, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, Banks, t--; cum 17K over 13 days; fracked 12/1/19 - 12/13/19; 9 million gallons of water; 88.2% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06982; cum 136K 5/20;
  • 31523, SI/A-->conf, CLR, Steele Federal 9-24H, Banks, t--; cum 15K over 14 days; fracked 12/2/19 - 12/13/19; 10.6 million gallons of water; 86.88% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06511; cum 150K 5/20;
    31520, SI/A, CLR, Steele Federal 5-24H1, Banks, t--; cum 18K over 15 days; fracked 12/14/19 - 12/23/19;8.2 million lbs; 87.8% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06636; cum 120K 5/20;
  • 31521, drl-->conf-->SI/A, CLR, Steele Federal 6-24H, Banks, t--; cum almost 200K over five months; cum 170K 5/20; see production below; 
31521:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20201721371213171455946658464530
BAKKEN4-20202836266361442237776353760250
BAKKEN3-20202637996379412364374220742200
BAKKEN2-202029556385578441411100322100156166
BAKKEN1-20201527395270032422247768386299139
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Idle Rambling Regarding The Bakken -- July 15, 2020

On or about June 30, 2020, when it appeared that there might be significant changes in Continental Resources in the next year or so, the share price of CLR has gone from about $16.95 / share to $17.18 today.

In addition, despite the headwinds, CLR continues to move forward, damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. Of the very few active rigs in North Dakota, two of them are operated by CLR.

Most notable was the "addition" of eight new permits in the Morris / Carson Peak play in the Oakdale oil field. Four of the "new" permits were in fact permits that had been PNC'd (canceled) but now renewed. Four of the "new" permits were new. I now count 25 Morris / Carson Peak permits.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Note: I often misread things, and/or see things that do not exist. That's true here, also, with regard to the Morris / Carson Peak permits.

Note: I am inappropriately exuberant when it comes to the Bakken.

From July 2, 2020:
Three dots to connect:
  • Banks tightening credit on shale companies (Reuters story today)
  • Harold Hamm buying up outstanding shares in CLR; owns 80%; announced plans to buy more;
  • some years ago, analyst asked HH point blank: why don't you take your company private?
***********************************
 Waffle Wednesday


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Notes From All Over -- Mid-Day Edition -- July 15, 2020

Chipotle: will hire another 10,000 workers to support drive-through expansion. Link here. Prior to the lock down, Starbucks was anticipating the same upsurge in drive-though over sit-down. My hunch: Starbucks is also accelerating the evolution to ~100% drive-through.

Electric trucks: another manufacturer enters the fray. Navistar to develop self-driving trucks with TuSimple. Watch for the SPACs. 

Goldman Sachs: huge earnings story. No links. Story everywhere. The thing that caught my eye(s): CNN on line and Yahoo!Finance, et al, have been warning us about horrible earnings for 2Q20 -- again, trying to set the narrative. I find it amazing how some companies are doing just fine; some doing much better than expected.

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From Supply Glut To Energy Shock -- James Puplava -- May 18, 2020 -- Posted July 15, 2020

Some folks may enjoy this article. I particularly enjoyed the analysis of Saudi Arabia's reserves.

Link here.

Having said that, two comments:
  • I've been reading articles like this for two decades now; and, 
  • whenever I see graphics of rig counts, my eyes glaze over
Of all the things that affect oil production, from geo-political, logistics, demand, improvement in technology, completion strategies, etc., etc., the number of rig counts is near the bottom of that list. 

It is amazing that after fifty years or more, Saudi's reserves and production remain(s) more than adequate to meet increases in oil demand. There is nothing to suggest that will change in my investing lifetime which I now estimate to be less than another twenty years. After that? Sophia takes over.
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EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- July 15, 2020

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:
  • US crude oil in storage: at 531.7 million bbls; about 17% above the already-fat-five-year average;
  • change in US crude oil in storage, week-over-week: decreased by 7.5 million bbls;
  • refineries operating at 78.1% capacity; pretty much unchanged;
  • imports: averaged 5.6 million bopd, down by 1.8 million bopd from the previous week; over the past four weeks, imports averaged about 10.2% less than the same four-week period last year;
  • airline fuel supplied: down about 51.9% from same four-week period last year; big change from a few weeks ago;
  • as a reminder, contracts are tracked here.
Re-balancing:
Week
Date of Report=
Change
Million Bbls Storage

Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9

Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5

Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2

Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0

Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5

Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4

Week 71
April 8, 2020
15.2
484.4

Week 72
April 15, 2020
19.2
503.6

Week 72
April 22, 2020
15.0
518.6

Week 73
April 29, 2020
9.0
527.6

Week 74
May 6, 2020
4.6
532.2

Week 75
May 13, 2020
-0.7
531.5

Week 76
May 20, 2020
-5.0
526.5

Week 77
May 28, 2020
7.9
534.4

Week 78
June 3, 2020
-2.1
532.3

Week 79
June 10, 2020
5.7
538.1

Week 80
June 17, 2020
1.2
539.3
15%
Week 81
June 24, 2020
1.4
540.7
16%
Week 82
July 1, 2020
-7.2
533.5
15%
Week 83
July 8, 2020
5.7
539.2
18%
Week 84
July 15, 2020
-7.5
531.7
17%

Imports crude oil:
Crude Oil Imports




Week (week-over-week)
Date of Report
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Four-week period comparison
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174

Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127

Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422

Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070

Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173

Week 5
April 15, 2020
5.7
-0.194

Week 6
April 22, 2020
5.6
-0.700

Week 7
April 29, 2020
5.3
0.365
-19.700%
Week 8
May 6, 2020
5.7
0.410

Week 9
May 13, 2020
5.4
-0.321
-26.100%
Week 10
May 20, 2020
5.2
-0.194

Week 11
May 28, 2020
7.2
2.000
-16.400%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
6.2
-1.000
-18.300%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
6.4
0.000
-13.300%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
6.6
-0.222
-10.000%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
6.5
-0.102
-11.600%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
6.5
-0.600
-11.300%
Week 17
July 8, 2020
7.4
1.400
-8.500%
Week 18
July 15, 2020
7.5
-1.800
-10.200%

Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Date of Report
Change
Week 0
3/7/2020
-12.80%
Week 1
3/14/2020
-12.60%
Week 2
3/21/2020
-8.90%
Week 3
3/28/2020
-16.40%
Week 4
4/4/2020
-0.22%
Week 5
4/11/2020
-39.70%
Week 6
4/18/2020
-53.60%
Week 7
4/24/2020
-61.60%
Week 8
5/1/2020
-66.60%
Week 9
5/8/2020
-68.50%
Week 10
5/15/2020
-67.90%
Week 11
May 22, 2020
-66.60%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
-68.70%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
-63.70%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
-62.30%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
-62.50%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
-60.00%
Week 17
July 8, 2020
-57.20%
Week 18
July 15, 2020
-51.90%
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