The Millennials, Apparently, Have Changed The Definition Of "Unanimous" -- January 18, 2018

I have read and re-read the headline and the story over at Fox.com and cannot figure out what I'm missing. Either I'm missing something very, very obvious, or the millennials have changed the definition of "unanimous."

Sort of reminds me of what the definition of "is," is. LOL.

On another note, my biggest fear following the 2018 mid-term elections when the Republicans lose control of the House and the Senate is that we will go back to having no adult leadership in Congress. No matter where one stands with regard to the two parties, it sure seems like we have more adult leadership in Congress now than we did in 2009, but I've long forgotten the political timeline.

Diane Feinstein seems to be truly conflicted on this whole thing; in her heart, I think, she knows the right thing to do, but peer pressure is another thing. My hunch is she will compromise, taking ten crucial Democratic votes with her -- the compromise will be to shut down the government over the weekend when it doesn't matter; hope the stock market crashes Monday, and the polling scares the GOP, but regardless of what happens Monday, will vote to extend temporary funding by the end of the week.

The interesting thing is that, except for Yogi Bear and a few park rangers, not one American will even notice. (Federal workers that don't show up for worker will just assume it's a paid vacation [history tells us that in these situations, all Federal workers will get backpay)].

If the shutdown lasts longer than Monday, the mainstream media will be going nuts but the rest of America will go on as usual, except, of course, those who had planned to visit Yellowstone Park.

This would be payback for the 16-day government shutdown under President Obama.

Davos: January 23 - 26, 2018. Trump will be in Davos during the shutdown -- exactly perfect for those wanting to embarrass Trump. The Senate may simply say they will re-address the funding issue when the president gets back form Davos. President Trump will address the body on the last day, I believe, January 26.

It should be an interesting week on CNBC next week.

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The Only Thing That Separates The Brits From Americans: The Language

In Britain, A Supersonic Passenger Plane Is Called A "Train"

From The Daily Star,

New York-London passenger flight goes ‘SUPERSONIC’ in record-breaking trip A PASSENGER plane has set a new world record for the fastest ever transatlantic flight after going “supersonic”. this screenshot:

The dizzying speeds of Concorde made a shock comeback on Monday when a Norwegian flight topped the speed of sound.

It zoomed from New York to London at a mind-blowing 776 mph and took just five hours and 13 minutes – almost a whole hour quicker.

And after touching down at Gatwick and shaving 53 minutes off the flight duration, the pilot then revealed: “We could have flown faster.”

Captain van Dam said: “We were actually in the air for just over five hours and if it had not been for forecasted turbulence at lower altitude, we could have flown even faster.”

Then this, captured in a screenshot:

In California we have a "bullet train" in the planning stages; in Britain, they already have a trans-Atlantic "supersonic train."

I can't make this stuff up.

Four New Permits; Eighteen Permits Renewed; Six DUCs Completed; Hess With A 60-Stage Frack; XTO With Two 75-Stage Fracks -- January 18, 2018

Active rigs:

$63.67↓	1/18/2018	01/18/2017	01/18/2016	01/18/2015	01/18/2014
Active Rigs	58	38	49	157	187

Four new permits:

• Operator: Nine Point Energy
  Fields: Rawson (McKenzie); Spring Creek (McKenzie)
• Comments: Nine Point has permits for a 4-well Hovde pad in lots3/6, section 6-150-100

Eighteen (18) oil and gas permits renewed:

• BR (9): a Jerome permit, two Merton permits, all in McKenzie County; a Rifle Person permit, a Scottvale permit, a CCU Burner permit, a CCU Golden Creek permit, a CCU Audubon permit, and a CCU Boxcar permit, all in Dunn County
• Whiting (5): a Helling permit in Williams County; a Wold permit in McKenzie County; a Kostelecky permit in Stark County; and, two Pronghorn Federal permits in Billings County
• Petro-Hunt (2) two Clark Griswold Federal permits in McKenzie County
• Murex: a Barrett Leigh permit in Williams County
• Hunt: a Patten permit in Mountrail County 

Four permits canceled:

• BR (3): an Elizabeth Stroh permit; a Cecilia Stroh permit; and a Linvald permit, all in Dunn County
• Petro-Hunt: a Joel Goodsen permit in McKenzie County

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 30374, 0 (no typo), Statoil, East Fork 32-29 8TFH, East Fork, Three Forks, 32 stages; 8.6 million lbs small sand,  t12/17; cum --
• 31938, 1,554, WPX, Rachel Wolf 22HC, Squaw Creek, t8/17; cum 90K 11/17;
• 32332, 52, BR, CCU Red River 3-2-16 TFH, Corral Creek, Three Forks, 24 stages, 14 million lbs large/small; t12/17; cum --
• 32827, 2,613, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-3229H-7, Blue Buttes, Three Forks, 60 stages; 4.2 million lbs small/large, t11/17; cum 34K after 24 days;
• 33211, 2,025, XTO, Lundin 11X-4E, North Fork, Three Forks, 75 stages, 16.8 million lbs, t11/17; cum 12K after 17 days;
• 33212, 1,756, XTO, Lundin 11X-4AXD, North Fork, 75 stages; 16.8 million lbs, t12/17; cum -- 

The Lundin wells are tracked here.

Random Update Of An XTO Lawlar Well With A Small Bump In Production -- January 18, 2018

So, Oasis drills/fracks a well, and at least one XTO well shows some benefit, albeit not much.


The graphic:

The Lawlar well:

• 31629, 2,208, Oasis, Lawlar N 5199 41-23 2B, North Tobacco Garden, 70 stages; 10.2 million lbs; t7/17; cum 212K 11/17;

Production profiles:

• 23469, 3,146, XTO, Lawlar 41-15SEH, North Tobacco Garden, t4/13; cum 276K 11/17; #31629 fracked 3/31/17  - 4/28/17;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	4013	4138	2243	8186	7326	556
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	4520	4588	2503	8501	7941	247
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	4289	4278	2538	8013	6988	819
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	4479	4296	2828	7818	7608	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	30	4204	4022	3376	11986	6351	5434
BAKKEN	6-2017	11	970	898	463	2890	943	1885
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	22	1267	1373	683	3737	3473	89
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	2317	2514	1177	6932	6662	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	2858	2792	1437	7650	5562	1778

Unremarkable change in production:

• 23470, 1,551, XTO, Lawler 41-15SH, North Tobacco Garden, t4/13; cum 121K 11/17; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	1166	1163	860	2254	1974	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	1248	1370	1002	2541	2195	57
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	1254	1143	988	2607	2319	103
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	1682	1804	1115	3134	2943	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	30	1420	1352	1007	4004	1696	2171
BAKKEN	6-2017	19	1042	884	965	2987	1168	1707
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	22	743	911	502	2243	1902	147
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	1050	1157	672	2700	2442	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	1218	1398	868	3172	1496	1377
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	1242	932	782	1989	1297	443

This Is What All The Fuss Is About -- OMG -- January 18, 2018

From the Obama White House regarding a government shutdown:

• vital services that ensure seniors and young children have access to healthy food and meals may not have sufficient Federal funds to serve all beneficiaries in an extended lapse
• call centers, hotlines and regional offices that help veterans understand their benefits will close to the public
• and, veterans’ compensation, pension, education and other benefits could be cut off in the case of an extended shutdown
• every one of America’s national parks and monuments, from Yosemite to the Smithsonian to the Statue of Liberty, will be immediately closed
• new applications for small business loans and loan guarantees will be immediately halted.
• research into life-threatening diseases and other areas will stop and new patients won’t be accepted into clinical trials at the National Institutes of Health
• work to protect consumers, ranging from child product safety to financial security to the safety of hazardous waste facilities, will cease. The EPA will halt non-essential inspections of chemical facilities and drinking water systems
• permits and reviews for planned energy and transportations (sic) projects will stop, preventing companies from working on these projects (there goes the California bullet train -- LOL)
• loans to rural communities will be halted (since it takes months for the application process to be completed, no one will even notice)
• hundreds of thousands of Federal employees including many charged with protecting us from terrorist threats, defending our borders, inspecting our food, and keeping our skies safe will work without pay until the shutdown ends
• hundreds of thousands of additional Federal workers will be immediately and indefinitely furloughed without pay (history says they will all get back pay; in the meantime, they will qualify for unemployment insurance)
  

The following services that will continue during the government shut down:

• social security beneficiaries will continue receiving checks
• the U.S. Postal Service will keep delivering mail
• active military will continue serving [and will still get paid]
• air traffic controllers, prison guards and border patrol agents will remain on the job [and still get paid]
• NASA Mission Control will continue supporting astronauts serving on the Space Station [thank God]

When the list starts with "call centers" and "healthy meals" one knows how serious a "government shutdown is." LOL.

And this was written with a bias and an agenda.

Meanwhile, for me today was a buying opportunity when the market took a breather and actually dropped back a bit. Thank you Ms Pelosi and Mr Schumer.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

There are two issues here, whether the government shutdown is due to:

• lack of budget
• reaching the debt ceiling

If it's the latter -- reaching the debt ceiling -- yes, entitlements could be cut completely or decreased. The US Secretary of Treasury would call the shots, I assume. My hunch is that a lot of money would be shifted from other agencies and/or programs to cover military, retired military, and social security payments. But yes, if it's a "debt ceiling" issue and this issue lasts for a protracted period of time -- perhaps two pay cycles -- then there might be cut in federal pay and benefits, but my hunch is that Congressional pay would have to be cut first if any incumbent hoped to remain in office.

GDP 4Q17 Estimate Up Again -- January 18, 2018

Europe running scared. This is a huge story and will be seen by few, over at Bloomberg.
France wants joint banking-union proposals with Germany in March. Why now? One reason: the Trump tax bill. Do you need proof?

[Germany's acting finance minister] praised the French government’s efforts to cut its budget deficit and reform its economy. The acting German finance minister also said that Europe had to react to U.S. plans to overhaul its tax system, noting that companies are likely to undertake a massive shift in funds from abroad as a result.

Gee, do you think that the lower US corporate tax rate had any effect on this?

This is good news for another reason: the "synchronized global economy." Seriously. CNBC won't call "it" the Trump rally. Instead they call the stock market surge due to the "synchronized global economy." Well, if France-Germany cut corporate tax rates because of Trump -- that can't be all bad.

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GDP

GDP Now: Latest forecast: 3.4 percent — January 18, 2018. Link here.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.4 percent on January 18, up from 3.3 percent on January 12.

The fourth-quarter forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 3.8 percent to 4.0 percent after Wednesday's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

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Government Shut-Down

The only thing that the government shut down really affects:

• parks
• museums

If the government shuts down, the national parks in North Dakota will close. I assume that makes the refinery issue in Belfield a moot point. No park, no reason to worry about whether the refinery can be seen from the park or not.

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Best Business Optic Every Day

Best business optic: when Rick Santelli schools Steve Liesman on CNBC. And it happens every, every day. Steve Liesman still can't give any credit to Trump. He's become a parody of himself. Steve still argues that repatriation is not guaranteed. While he's babbling about that, CNBC cuts to Rick Santelli, who says, "They should have asked Steve about 'inversions." Since Trump has come in as president, "no one is talking about inversions."

Great smack down.

If Steve is investing in line with his political views, he has missed one of the biggest bull markets in US history. 

The Political Page, T+362 -- January 18, 2018 -- How's That Global Warming Working Out? Texas Shatters Winter Power Demand -- It's Cold Outside

We were told by Patrick Kennedy that our grandchildren would never see snow by 2010 or some such year. Don reminded me of that. Today, it is being reported that there is snow in all 50 states.

Texas: shatters record for winter power demand.

Texas has set a new record for winter power demand in the wake of a record-breaking cold snap that gripped the state on Tuesday night, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which oversees 90 percent of the state's grid.
Power demand peaked between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. Wednesday at 65,731 megawatts -- shattering the record of 62,855 megawatts hit earlier this month when another cold snap hit the state. In a news release, ERCOT said the state had sufficient power resources available to meet demand.
The spike in demand also affected wholesale power prices, which hit around $200 per megawatt hour across the state, according to ERCOT. The average wholesale price of power, which changes by the minute every day, is typically $25 per megawatt-hour. By 9:30 a.m., prices had dropped down to around $100 per megawatt-hour, except in South Texas.

Don't cry for Texas at $200/MWh. Those in New England are paying $500/MWh, and those in South Australia are paying $10,000/MWh (no typo). [Update: this was how bad it was last week in South Australia -- in two days they burned more money on electricity costs than it would have cost to build a new natural-gas fired plant.]

Our electricity bill here in the DFW area in December, 2017, was about 4X our normal monthly payment. 4x.

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Teaching Spanish

US Crude Oil Inventories Dropped 7 Million Bbls -- Records Set -- January 18, 2018

Gasoline demand is at this site; at the link, scroll to the bottom of the page. Gasoline demand continues to fall (as expected this time of the year) but remains ahead of the same period last year.

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Five years ago, or thereabouts, "we" were building LNG import terminals; now we are exporting natural gas. This is the story that is not being told: our energy balance of payments would be setting new records buying natural gas from the Mideast. Our "energy balance of trade" is allowing the Federal government to spend money elsewhere, much on social services. Those folks complaining about frackers and fracking should be sending the oil industry "thank you" letters -- like that will ever happen. LOL. And those frackers did that fighting regulations, politicos, and protestors all along the way. They're still fighting natural gas pipelines in New England. We'll never know who "lucky" we were. We certainly won't read about this story in the mainstream media.

Before we get to the US crude oil inventories, let's look at the US natural gas draw, from John Kemp via Twitter. The current stocks are almost at historical lows -- not quite there but ....

Chart as depicted by EIA:

Now, back to the US crude oil inventories.

I'm being told that the 7-million-bbl draw is:

• a record;
• the most ever drawn from Cushing: and, 
• the largest drawdown ever. I guess I'm repeating myself.

ZeroHedge has the data - it's a great read with great graphics.

The market's reaction: ho-hum. WTI at $63.94, down 3 cents. Yes, after the report, WTI declined slightly. The phrase that CNBC will use: the price of WTI has already baked in the weekly drawdown. 

The weekly petroleum report is here. The data points:

• US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.9 million bbls; now at 412.7 million bbls, still in the middle of the average range for this time of the year
• refineries operated at 93% of their operable capacity last week
• total gasoline inventories increased by 3.6 million bbls
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.9 million bbls (think heating oil in the northeast)
• jet fuel product supplied is up 8.7%

Re-balancing is now down to 20 weeks, around mid-2018:

Week	Date	Drawdown	Storage	Weeks to RB
Week 0	Apr 26, 2017		529.0	180
Week 1	May 3, 2017	0.9	528.0	198
Week 2	May 10, 2017	6	522.0	50
Week 3	May 17, 2017	1.8	520.2	59
Week 4	May 24, 2017	4.4	515.8	51
Week 5	May 31, 2017	6.4	509.9	41
Week 6	June 7, 2017	-3.3	513.2	60
Week 7	June 14, 2017	1.7	511.5	57
Week 8	June 21, 2017	2.5	509.0	62
Week 9	June 28, 2017	-0.2	509.2	71
Week 10	July 6, 2017	6.3	502.9	58
Week 11	July 12, 2017	7.6	495.3	47
Week 12	July 19, 2017	4.7	490.6	43
Week 13	July 26, 2017	7.2	483.4	38
Week 14	August 2, 2017	1.5	481.9	42
Week 15	August 9, 2017	6.5	475.4	35
Week 16	August 16, 2017	8.9	466.5	30
Week 17	August 23, 2017	3.3	463.2	29
Week 18	August 30, 2017	5.4	457.8	27
Week 19	September 7, 2017	-4.6	462.4	32
Week 20	September 13, 2017	-5.9	468.2	39
Week 21	September 20, 2017	-4.6	472.8	46
Week 22	September 27, 2017	1.8	471.0	46
Week 23	October 4, 2017	6.0	465.0	41
Week 24	October 12, 2017	2.8	462.2	40
Week 25	October 18, 2017	5.7	456.5	37
Week 26	October 25, 2017	-0.9	457.3	39
Week 27	November 1, 2017	2.4	454.9	38
Week 28	November 8, 2017	-2.2	457.1	42
Week 29	November 15, 2017	1.9	459.0	43
Week 30	November 22, 2017	1.9	457.1	42
Week 31	November 29, 2017	3.4	453.7	41
Week 32	December 6, 2017	5.6	448.1	37
Week 33	December 13, 2017	5.1	443.0	36
Week 34	December 20, 2017	6.5	436.5	30
Week 35	December 28, 2017	4.6	431.9	28
Week 36	January 4, 2018	7.4	424.5	25
Week 37	January 10, 2018	4.9	419.5	23
Week 38	January 18, 2018	6.9	412.7	20

We haven't talked about this in a long time: weekly US days of crude oil. Right now it's about 24 days; I put the over/under line at 20 days. If we drop below 20 days, it will be something we haven't really seen since before the Saudi surge, back in 2014. If we stay at / above 24 days, one would think the price of crude oil would not trend higher.