Locator: 44494B.
The two pads in 12-151-96.
The map:
18732, 558, CLR, Stortroen 1-13T, Dimmick Lake, t7/10; cum 301K 2/23;
Locator: 44493B.
Quite a day; note the VIX:
Valero: net income more than triples.
Tallgrass: announces open seasons for Pony Express Pipeline. Link here.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 43.
WTI: $76.73.
Natural gas: $2.402
Eight new permits, #39860 - #39867, inclusive:
The parent well sited in that section, and the one to the south: see this post.
Locator: 44494B.
Of note: either there has been a huge amount of oil activity this past week, or Hart Energy, pedal to the metal, has been posting a whole lot more than before.
Top story:
Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
Bakken economy:
Commentary:
Locator: 44492E.
Keep these two graphs / charts in mind when listening to Chevron's CEO talk about Venezuela.
These two graphs reflect the amount of oil produced by either company. Over the past few years, the price of oil has had its ups and downs but in the big scheme of things has been running in a fairly narrow band suggesting volume of oil produced is directly related to share price.
Locator: 44491E.
Finally, we have the data.
Two questions are now answered:
Both graphs look pretty identical.
I chose the five-year graph as opposed to the "max" graph because it seems to support my argument better, or perhaps better said, make it "more obvious" or "easier to see."
In addition, the longer one goes back in time, the number of "economic events" make the discussion more difficult.
The two graphs, as I noted, are almost identical.
Prior to 1990s, there were four companies:
After 2021, there were two:
From the two graphs, one can argue, the US was "back to normal, "economically-speaking" after the pandemic lockdown, in March, 2022.
The recession will be "obvious" when we have at least six months of a new red line clearly below the March, 2022 - March, 2023 line.
The US government won't "officially declare" a recession until a minimum of one to two years after the fact.
"Clearly below" will be in the neighborhood of a 20% correction.
The charts:
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More Evidence That "We're Back To Normal"
Locator: 44490P.
XOM: By the way, before we get started.
How much oil was refined last quarter compared to previous calendar first quarters? I have no idea but it must be a lot. Think about this. XOM reports the largest first quarter profit in their 140-year history, and yet oil prices were "way down." Two things: margins and volume. Actually three/four things: subtract expenses (including taxes, etc).
But XOM must be hitting on all four cylinders -- increased volume, increased margins, cost control, and tax management -- to set a first quarter record like that.
Has XOM been laying off employees? If so, not being widely reported.
Now, back to our regular programming:
I assume "duly elected."
If so, I find this reprehensible, unless I'm missing something or there's more to the story. I know nothing more about this story than this "headline."
WWJD?
And with that, I'm off the net for awhile. Or not.
Maybe I should do a poll.
Wow, I'm in a feisty mood this morning, but I've never felt better with regard to the market. But I am getting tired of all the crazy reporting and headlines on the business pages.
Exhibit A:
By the way, I still need to get back to Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, BKR and all their excuses. Lack of out-of-the-box thinking.
Before I get started on WBCMBRK, look at BRK's holdings -- all of them and percent of each holding as part of the overall portfolio.
Then review reasons given by CM and WB why they are holding a huge cash hoard and not spending it.
It has to do with the SEC and "ownership" rules. Link here.
Locator: 44489B.
Knock three times. When I sold books doors-to-door one summer during college, many decades ago, the Southwestern Publishing sales training folks told us that one had to tell folks something three times before they heard what one was saying.
XOM: merger -- 1998.
CVX: merger -- 2001.
XOM — hit a 52-week high today; in fact, it appears to be an all-time high.
I'm going to post this three times in case folks miss it the first two times. Then tell me the economy is getting worse.
Hess: Guyana will displace the Bakken for Hess. Sure. In 2025. Hart Energy. As a reminder, I turn the management of my portfolio over to Sophia when I turn 75 years old. Just a couple of years from now.
Bolt: Sophia won't be buying a Bolt. Barron's has thoughts on that.
CAT: link here.
The CAT I'm buying:
Or: seriously, when I see Lego sets either on "backorder," "unavailable," "limited quantities," "limit 2," or "hard to find," it's hard for me to take seriously the economy is getting worse. Link here. By the way folks are not buying Lego sets in quantity for their kids and friends. They're buying them as investments. All Lego sets are eventually retired, some sooner than others, and sets like the one below will triple in value once it's retired. Somehow -- and I don't know the backstory -- Amazon seems to have an "unlimited" supply of retired Lego sets. Lego does not sell sets directly to consumers (retail) once the set has been retired. It's very possible, Amazon -- or an Amazon re-seller or intermediary -- is buying any Lego stock directly from Lego once the product is retired. Lego announces every year which sets will be retired that year, giving retail buyers plenty of time to buy a set that will be retired.
The eight to follow today:
Biggest treat today! Bloomberg shares thoughts on US shale. Whoo-hoo. And not behind a paywall.
Cost inflation, spanning everything from frack gear to laborers, is moderating after running white-hot for the last two years. A drop in natural gas drilling is freeing up rigs, trucks and materials for oil fields like those in the Permian Basin. Halliburton Co., the biggest provider of shale services, is relocating crews. In the past week, Baker Hughes Co. and SLB, the other two major service companies, warned that producer spending will grow less than expected. Helmerich & Payne Inc. is seeing a drop in demand for rigs. Lium, a research firm, said bids for fracking have slipped more than 20% since January. Halliburton was more bullish, with Chief Executive Officer Jeff Miller saying his company could defend its pricing power and that “quality services will remain tight.” But investors were less sure, with the stock failing to register a bump despite the highest first-quarter profit in more than a decade.
Chart of the day, from Bloomberg:
Transit time from India to Europe:
Transit time from Texas to Europe: THREE WEEKS.
How Texas is saving Europe: link here. This was a year ago .....
Locator: 44488B.
Poll: there's a poll being posted today that 75% of Americans feel the economy is getting worse. That was sent to me by a reader.
My reply:
The other 25% live in Texas.
Most of those folks who say the economy is getting worse never lived through the Panic of 1873.
The Panic of 1873 triggered the first 'Great Depression' in the United States and abroad. Lasting from September 1873 until 1878/9, the economic downturn then became known as the Long Depression after the stock market crash of 1929.
Market: it looks like literally, almost every Fortune 500 company, every well-known Main Street company -- except energy -- is making money the old-fashioned way: laying off workers. Meta, Amazon, Intel, Lyft, and the list goes on and on.
Earnings tomorrow, updated as results come in, link here:
XOM: income rose to $11.43 billion, or $2.79 per share, compared with $5.48 billion a year ago which included a writedown to exit Russia. Barron’s says $2.83. Whisper number: $2.69. Wall Street number: $2.65. Pre-market, Friday: turns green.
Eggs: !!! Link here.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs; 40.
Peter Zeihan newsletter. Peter has a very, very interesting take on the Iranian oil tanker seizure, a them he addressed in his 2022 book.
WTI: $75.10.
Natural gas: $2.294.
Sunday, April 30, 2023: 52 for the month; 52 for the quarter, 307 for the year
39183, conf, Ragnar, Dagny 1-2H,
38523, conf, Oasis, Rilynn Federal 5201 41-2 2B,
31213 (no typo), conf, BR, Gladstone 4-1-13MBH,
Saturday, April 29, 2023: 49 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 304 for the year
None.
RBN Energy: the IRA's sourcing rules chart a narrow path to full EV tax credits, part 3.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which became law several months ago, may have an enormous impact on the U.S. energy landscape over the long run, but many of its key provisions, including the much-discussed tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs), have been missing one big thing: rules of the road. Federal agencies such as the Department of Energy (DOE), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Treasury Department are responsible for implementing and enforcing laws passed by Congress, which are not only lengthy and complex, but often leave out important details. That’s where federal rulemaking comes into play, filling in the details and addressing questions left unanswered in the original legislation. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how the rules surrounding the New Clean Vehicle Credit (NCVC) are taking shape, the detailed steps that automakers will have to take to meet new sourcing and content requirements, and what it all means for prospective EV buyers.
