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Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Nothing About The Bakken -- Urban Living And The ABC's Of Love -- September 27, 2017

I'm in my ramen noodle phase.

My wife and I enjoyed Tampopo. She generally does not watch a movie more than one time. Me? I can watch a movie I like over and over and over. I think I've watched Tampopo half a dozen times since I ordered it from Amazon about six months ago.

Surprisingly, there's another "ramen movie": The Ramen Girl. I want to watch it with my wife, but our schedules never seem to work out that we can watch it together. I've watched the first 15 minutes twice and I don't want to watch the rest of it without watching it with someone else. The movie looks incredible.

So, I'm watching it again tonight -- but just the first 15 minutes. I will save the movie until I can watch it with Mayumi (my wife, half Japanese, half Hispanic). Her Hispanic half is sweet; her Japanese half is ... well, let's just say it's not sweet. LOL.

So, I will watch the first fifteen minutes of this movie and then hope we can finish it together some evening. Right now, she's out in California with her Japanese and her Chinese friends.

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Amazon Fresh

This is really crazy. I like to have extra ink cartridges for my printer in the house in case my printer says I'm out of ink. The other night I replaced my last color and last black/white cartridge, so I went to Amazon.com to order new cartridges.

Wow, they are expensive. About the same price as one can find at Walmart. $35 for combination color and black/white cartridges (two cartridges). It's not worth ordering just one package so I order two: $70.

I place the order and go to "checkout." I'm unable to place the order: Amazon keeps directing me to something called "Amazon Fresh." I don't want "Amazon Fresh." I just want to order my ink cartridges and move on.

But I can't.

Finally, I click on the "Amazon Fresh" button. I'm now asked when I would like to have the cartridges delivered. They can be delivered in two hours. No kidding. All I have to do is click on the button and the cartridges will be here in two hours. Free shipping.

I don't want some guy trying to find my apartment in the middle of the night, so I click the button "8:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. the next morning."

Free shipping.

Amazon shows me a map: my house and the fulfillment center, just a few miles down the road.

This morning, at 9:14 a.m. the cartridges showed up at my doorstep.

Now the weird part: Amazon.com took $5 off the order as a promotion. Wow. I had no choice and yet Amazon.com took $5 off my purchase. What a great company. No wonder the company isn't making a profit.

But then they added a $6-tip for the person delivering the ink cartridges. So, $5 off for the purchase as a promotion and a $6-tip (that I had no control over) -- an extra $1 for free shipping.

I was very, very impressed. I saw the charge for the tip before I clicked on the last button so I had the option of opting out, but for a buck, I wanted to see how this would all work out.

And lo and behold, as noted, the ink cartridges showed up at 9:14 a.m., right in the middle of the two-hour window -- and cash back on the credit card for the order.

The ABC's of Love, Doyle and Debbie

Random Update Of Oasis Cook #19639 In Willow Creek -- September 27, 2017

This is pretty cool. Back on July 18, 2017, I noted that this well was taken off-line 2/17 and was curious if something was going on in the area. There certainly was.

The well:
  • 19639, 2,414, Oasis, Cook 5300 42-12H, t9/11; cum 333K 2/17; taken off-line 2/17;
The graphic:



Neighboring wells:
  • 30482, 870, Oasis, Cook 5300 12-13 6B, Willow Creek, t2/17; cum 7/17;
  • 27352, conf, Oasis, Cook 5300 12-13 7T, Willow Creek; producing
  • 27354, conf, Oasis, Cook 5300 12-13 9T, Willow Creek; producing,
  • 27353, TA, non-contributory to the "story"
  • 24707, 1,811, Oasis, Paul S 5300 13-13T, Willow Creek, take off-line 1/17 and back on status as of 6/17 but still not up to full month production; t10/13; cum 149K 7/17;
  • 24708, AB/149 (no typo), Oasis, Cook 24-31H, Willow Creek, taken off-line and placed on AB status, t3/13; cum 34K 3/13;
Production profile of neighboring wells (note that two of them are still conf);

27354 (still confidential, but obviously recently fracked):


DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20171703511827
6-201728223988


27352 (still confidential, but obviously recently fracked):


DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20171823612272
6-201748306005

30482 (recently fracked and now on line):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20173131485314504014024642238860
BAKKEN6-2017181325513476279461418812970462
BAKKEN5-201741492119864857227220
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-201775675563758398550561


Now,  for the production profile of #19639 (recent production):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2017315646522115531502749180
BAKKEN6-2017132046176512294231522060
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-201785665814099869190
BAKKEN12-201631198421061721281525550
BAKKEN11-201630253523052272380235500
BAKKEN10-201630259727662090473947390
BAKKEN9-201630235423671788400737550
BAKKEN8-201631247224711873321829580

Eight New Permits -- September 27, 2017

Active rigs:

$52.039/27/201709/27/201609/27/201509/27/201409/27/2013
Active Rigs583271190184

One permit renewed:
  • Hunt Oil: one Oakland permit in Mountrail County.
Eight new permits:
  • Operators: Enerplus (7); Sinclair
  • Fields: Heart Butte; Mary
  • Comments: Enerplus has permits for a 7-well "spider" pad in Heart Butte, SESW 32-149-92 (see below)
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The graphic for the Enerplus 9-well "spider" pad (originally a 7-well pad was proposed but on October 1, 2018, I noted that it had permits for nine (9) wells:
  • 35131, loc, Huntsman,
  • 35130, loc, Blackwidow,
  • 34068, loc, Spider,
  • 34067, loc, Cobweb,
  • 34066, loc, Maratus,
  • 34065, loc, Tarantula,
  • 34064, loc, Trapdoor,
  • 34063, loc, Orbweaver,
  • 34062, loc, Recluse,




Update On Halcon's Plans To Exit The Williston Basin -- September 27, 2017

I haven't quite figured this one out yet. In a previous post, it was reported that Halcon would be exiting the Williston Basin. Today it is being reported that Halcon has sold all its non-operated assets in Williston buyer to a private buyer.

At Yahoo!Finance!, data points:
  • mineral acres, if any, not mentioned
  • about 2,000 bopd
  • $104 million
  • proceeds will be used to pay down debt
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Picture Perfect

The Political Page, T+250 -- September 27, 2017

Pitino Fired

Link here.

Must read. Absolutely incredible how criminal, amoral this whole program seems to have been -- and coming on top of kneeling-gate.

Hall of shame:
  • Pitino: thought to be "bullet-proof" -- as much chance of him getting fired as the Pope being excommunicated
  • Louisville head basketball coach Rick Pitino has been fired in the wake of the school’s latest scandal
  • FBI investigation
  • 10 people charged
  • corruption and fraud scheme
  • illegal payment of a recruit 
  • 2016: escort service had been paid by the program to have sex with prospective round-ball players and their family members -- organized by the former director of basketball operatiosn
  • Adidas rep named
  • others named: from Arizona and USC
  • 2009: Pitino involved in extortion battle; sexual relationship; abortion
And then this:
His on court resume—a career record of 416–141 and two NCAA titles, one with Louisville in 2013—has been outstanding, but the background of his coaching career continues to grow murkier.
"...to grow murkier?" Perhaps the media is being too harsh, I bet some will say. These things happen. 

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College Ranking

Speaking of Louisville, how do the colleges/universities rack and stack in the most recent WSJ/Times Higher Education College Rankings? The "top 10" are the same as usual, just rotating among the top ten. But how were the other 490 colleges ranked?

15: University of Southern California (my alma mater, graduate school; white privilege)
25: UCLA (my wife's alma mater)
26: Pomono College (colleague's undergraduate school)
38: Carleton (a mentor's alma mater)
46: University of California, Davis (post-graduate study for me)
56: University of Texas, Austin
153: St Olaf College (I spent one high school summer at St Olaf)
179: University of Arizona (alma mater for older daughter and her husband)
188: Baylor (Texas)
t-198: Rutgers University-Newark (former girlfriend's alma mater)
243: Luther (heard about this college often when growing up)
274: Augustana College (Sioux Falls) (my alma mater, undergraduate)
286: University of California (Santa Cruz) (one month undergraduate experience)
306: Auburn University (memories from my days in the US Air Force)
371: University of Wyoming (I noted that UND, NDSU, SDSU, and SDSU did not rank among the top 500)
437: California Lutheran University (former girlfriend's alma mater)
473: California State University, Long Beach (just saying)
489: California State Polytechnic University, Pomona (just saying)
489: Ohio University (really? this low? barely made the list)
I didn't see it on the list, probably missed it: South Dakota School of Mines and Technology

The Energy And Market Page, T+250 -- September 27, 2017

WTI: slightly above $52 at open. Closed at $52.03. Whoo-hoo.

Market: in early trading, the Dow is barely in the green, but by 11:00 a.m. already had 120 new highs on the NYSE, including: Navistar International; Union Pacific;
  • new lows: 11
***************************
WTI: On Sale!




John Kemp: the differential between WTI and Brent will drain the US WTI crude oil inventories.


***************************
Weekly Petroleum Report

The weekly petroleum report, highlights:
  • US commercial crude oil inventories: decreased by 1.8 million bbs; now at 471.0 million bbls
    • upper half of the average range for this time of year
  • total motor gasoline inventories increased 1.1 million bbls; in the upper half of the average range
  • distillate fuel product supplies was up by almost 14% -- again, incredible numbers for many consecutive weeks
  • refineries operated at 89% of capacity; improved but still way below where they should be
Re-balancing: remains unchanged. At current rate of change in US crude oil inventories, it will take 46 weeks to get back to historical levers.

The EIA will post the graphic tomorrow with the number of days of gasoline supply at current rate of usage.

Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 1
May 3, 2017
0.9
528.0
198
Week 2
May 10, 2017
6
522.0
50
Week 3
May 17, 2017
1.8
520.2
59
Week 4
May 24, 2017
4.4
515.8
51
Week 5
May 31, 2017
6.4
509.9
41
Week 6
June 7, 2017
-3.3
513.2
60
Week 7
June 14, 2017
1.7
511.5
57
Week 8
June 21, 2017
2.5
509.0
62
Week 9
June 28, 2017
-0.2
509.2
71
Week 10
July 6, 2017
6.3
502.9
58
Week 11
July 12, 2017
7.6
495.3
47
Week 12
July 19, 2017
4.7
490.6
43
Week 13
July 26, 2017
7.2
483.4
38
Week 14
August 2, 2017
1.5
481.9
50
Week 15
August 9, 2017
6.5
475.4
35
Week 16
August 16, 2017
8.9
466.5
30
Week 17
August 23, 2017
3.3
463.2
29
Week 18
August 30, 2017
5.4
457.8
27
Week 19
September 7, 2017
-4.6
462.4
32
Week 20
September 13, 2017
-5.9
468.2
39
Week 21
September 20, 2017
-4.6
472.8
46
Week 22
September 27, 2017
1.8
471.0
46

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LEGO

The Lego NASA Apollo Saturn V remains "temporarily out of stock." This is the longest period of time I have ever seen a Lego product "temporarily out of stock."

We've talked about this before.

Random Look At An NP Resources Well In Southwestern North Dakota -- September 27, 2017

Someone asked recently about NP Resources drilling in a relatively-poor Bakken area south of and outside of McKenzie County.

We have our first example since that question was asked.

The well:
  • 30724, 634, NP Resources, Beaver Creek State 41-36-2PH, Roosevelt, Three Forks, 35 stages; 5.3 million lbs; some ceramic; t4/17; cum 50K 7/17; 
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-201730130981296823432789178910
BAKKEN6-201730143441428514674857285720
BAKKEN5-201731161121599143832767476740
BAKKEN4-2017306416621317775288928890

The graphic:



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Let's compare the production from the above NP Resources well -- the first four months -- with the production of the first four to five months of production from older wells in Cabernet - Little Knife - Murphy Creek area, also in the south Bakken but considered a very, very good area. I will purposely find three older wells drilled at a time when costs were much, much greater than they are now (during the boom), and drilled by one of the best operators in the Bakken. The three wells:

19743, 1,002, MRO, Hartman 14-32H, Murphy Creek, t7/11; cum 197K 7/17:
BAKKEN12-20112849704836279223411904271
BAKKEN11-20113033163454100515961237181
BAKKEN10-20113145194536152721901742262
BAKKEN9-20113065616512231223431791372
BAKKEN8-2011319723986843423330147
BAKKEN7-20112211841112833795675006618


17468, 878, MRO, Hendricks 34-20H, Murphy Creek, t7/11; cum 163K 7/17:
BAKKEN12-20111112991131865351153152
BAKKEN11-20113032033353176515501087286
BAKKEN10-20113133993561197218451112547
BAKKEN9-20113055565613351826142169265
BAKKEN8-20113184298242565742413937118
BAKKEN7-20111368226392260738203310433


17693, 225, MRO, Louie Hendricks 24-20H, Murphy Creek, t3/09; cum 202K 7/17:
BAKKEN8-20093126402736930115111510
BAKKEN7-200931368836331530152915290
BAKKEN6-200926405640582270170117010
BAKKEN5-2009262186221212587667660
BAKKEN4-20092739773974638161916190
BAKKEN3-2009192389202310057627620