The Close -- May 14, 2024

Locator: 47153ETSC.

Updates

Later, 8:41 p.m. CDT: link here -- 

Original Post

Due to family commitments I didn't see much of CNBC today but what little I saw, truly disappointing. I've never seen such dour, depressed, decidedly pessimistic analysts. 

The economy is running on all cylinders; GDPNow is showing a 2Q24 estimate above 4%; we're in the middle of one of the longest bull runs ever; the world is at relative peace; US has set records for the number of months with unemployment less than 4%; and,inflation is running well less than 3% except for a few sectors; the world is awash in oil with no fear of embargoes. 

The dual mandate is entirely fabricated, manmade, irrelevant. Just think where we'd be as investors if the dual mandate for the Fed was:

• unemployment rate less than 4.5%; and,
• inflation at less than 3%.

One almost gets the feeling that a lot of CNBC talking heads have missed the most recent "leg up" in this bull market and are trying to convince their audience they know what they are doing (most of them don’t.). At least once today, one CNBC anchor brought up "stagflation" again. At some point, they may be right -- even a broken clock has the correct time twice a day -- but folks have been talking about "stagflation" for the last four years -- despite the fact the US has perhaps had a "genuine" bout of stagflation once in its history.

To the best of my knowledge, there isn’t even any formal definition of “stagflation.” It’s strictly in the eyes of the beholder. “Slow growth, high unemployment, and high inflation.” And a splash of schadenfreude. With a pinch of pessimism. And a lot of “I told you so.”

The best part of the day is "The Halftime Report" -- the "judge" is awesome; and most of the "committee" is superb, one exception, and the “committee” has the best CNBC contributor: Josh. 

Today's remarks by JPow were again "right on" and he was very, very optimistic about the US economy. The worse thing he said: "we need to be patient with regard to interest rates." That hasn't changed in six months. Meanwhile, look at the 52-week highs: all sectors participating, not just the “Fab Four.”

The most fascinating thing and some folks are starting to ask the question: is the "medicine" (higher for longer) causing more problems than the "illness" itself. 

52-week highs: today, TWSJ. Look at this list!!!

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.02 and trending down again.

Active rigs: 37.

Five new permits, #40748 - #40752, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO (whoo-hoo) (4); CLR;
• Field: Bailey (Dunn County -- whoo-hoo!); Little Knife (Dunn)
• Comments:
• CLR has a permit for a Taney well, NENW 26-145-97, Little Knife,
• to be sited 525 FNL and 2187 FWL;
• MRO has permits for four wells, NENW 26-146-93, Bailey oil field; 
• to be sited 740 FNL and between 2187 FWL and 2242 FWL: Gross; Rosenkranz; McAdoo; and Hafner;
• see the maps from yesterday; the very same location; the same pad? 
  

Three permits renewed:

• BR: three Patton permits, lot 3, section 1-145-94; Bailey oil field (again); Dunn County;