Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Daily Note


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115th  US Congress
Fourth 100 Days (first 50 days)
Days 301 - 350 

December 6, 2019, T+38 (posted December 5, just before Hillary's playbook: stay out of limelight except on an ad hoc basis. She will not formally announce, and she won't participate in the primary process. She's counting on a brokered convention where the superdelegates will nominate here. But to make sure the superdelegates know she is still going to run and will accept the nomination, she "pops up" whenever there is a major political development. So far it's been predictable and just like clock work: a press release; a university speech; an interview. The most recent example: just days after Bloomberg announced he was running, she shows up on the Howard Stern show. Obviously it would take a day or two to get the interview scheduled, and de-conflict his / her schedule.  So, literally, as soon as Bloomberg announced, Hillary had a response ready to go --- make an appointment to be interviewed on the Howard Stern show.
Howard Stern, the original "shock jock" stayed away from Epstein, Bill Clinton's affairs, Vince Foster, etc. -- obviously he agreed to softball questions in exchange for the interview.

But, the timing was priceless.
December 5, 2019, T+37: Nancy Pelosi announces that the US House will vote to impeach President Trump. The US Senate has the entire month of January cleared for the trial.  Ater Kamala Harris dropped out (December 3, 2019) Rush Limbaugh suggested the next one to drop out would be Pocahontas. We're only talking about the top five (the fifth being Bloomberg). Rush is correct, but she will stick it out through Iowa and New Hampshire. Her low income donors are not likely to be in the mood to send yet another check when her polling numbers are dropping, and it turns out she lied about her son going to private school, for $39,000 / year. That won't play well with low income donors (Ms Warren says she won't accept donations from "big" donors.) Also this:
Hillary's playbook: stay out of limelight except on an ad hoc basis. She will not formally announce, and she won't participate in the primary process. She's counting on a brokered convention where the superdelegates will nominate here. But to make sure the superdelegates know she is still going to run and will accept the nomination, she "pops up" whenever there is a major political development. So far it's been predictable and just like clock work: a press release; a university speech; an interview. The most recent example: just days after Bloomberg announced he was running, she shows up on the Howard Stern show. Obviously it would take a day or two to get the interview scheduled, and de-conflict his / her schedule.  So, literally, as soon as Bloomberg announced, Hillary had a response ready to go --- make an appointment to be interviewed on the Howard Stern show.
Howard Stern, the original "shock jock" stayed away from Epstein, Bill Clinton's affairs, Vince Foster, etc. -- obviously he agreed to softball questions in exchange for the interview.

But, the timing was priceless.
December 4, 2019, T+37: Pocahontas is caught in another lie. After denying it throughout her campaign, proof is found that her son went to private school for most of his formative years (all but one year between middle school and high school graduation). High school tuition: $39,000/year. It gets tedious. Another poll is released today: The Economist. The Economist is the most liberal of the pollsters, and is truly an outlier. In fact, the results say more about the pollsters than those polled:
  • Biden: 27%; the former VP is not liberal enough for those polled by The Economist;
  • Sanders: 13%; this is very, very low for The Economist; those polled would find Sanders more than liberal enough, but for various reasons, they would rather go with Warren
  • Pocahontas: at 18% -- this is the poll in which she clearly does the best, and this clearly shows The Economist is an outlier among pollsters --
  • Buttigieg: at 12% is doing very, very well for The Economist, but does not poll as high in The Economist as he does in the most reliable poll, the Quinnipiac, where he polls at 16%
  • Bloomberg: only 3% (he was 6% in The Hill's poll taken at almost the same time); not liberal enough but also too "new" for this poll; things will change;
  • Steyer at 0%
December 3, 2019, T+36: Kamala Harris drops out of the race; White House revokes Bloomberg News press credentials after Bloomberg bans investigative reporting on DEMS but will bless continued investigative reporting on Trump. Wow, wow, wow, another national poll released December 2, 2019, The Hill, 11/30 - 12/1:
  • Biden: wow, 31%; didn't expect that; folks getting tired of the others?
  • Sanders: pretty much unchanged, at 15%
  • Pocohontas: imploding, had been trending toward 20%; now 10% in latest nationwide poll
  • Buttigieg; nationally, even Mr Mom is faltering; now at 9%
  • the others don't matter, but for the record: Bloomberg jumps to 6% and 5th place; Kamala Harris next at 2%
  • Hillary: re-calculating ... re-calculating ... re-calculating ...
December 2, 2019, T+35: I thought "Global Warming" would be the issue for the 2020 campaign but my hunch is that internal polling shows that Americans don't care, and, if anything, don't accept global warming as an issue at all. So what will the issue be? My hunch: Third Supreme Court justice nomination for Trump. And what dot can Trump opponents connect to the Supreme Court nomination? Abortion. Interestingly, there are two huge articles on how anti-abortion proponents are winning the battle: a) first, in The New York Times, a long, long article on this very subject, and even though NYT articles are "always" behind a pay wall, this article is NOT behind a paywall; and, b) a long, long essay in the December 2, 2019, The New Yorker, with the same thesis -- anti-abortion proponents are winning ever since Trump was elected. Also, within the last couple of weeks The New Yorker also had a fluff piece on how Kagan has kept the court from swinging right.

December 1, 2019, T+34: quiet.

November 30, 2019, T+33: national polling. The big story is how far Pocahontas has fallen. Earlier, she slammed Sanders, 26% to 17%, in the Economist poll. In the most recent Economist poll, they are tied, she 17%; he 15%. His support, at 15%, is solid. Her support, all the way down to 3% is very, very weak. 

November 29, 2019, T+32: circular firing squad; gap among the top four in a national poll, The Economist, 11/24 - 11/26, continues to narrow. Pocahontas implodes:
  • Biden: 23% (in the previous Economist poll: 30%)
  • Sanders: 15%
  • Pocahontas: 17% (in the previous Economist poll: she slammed Sanders; 26% to 17%).
  • Buttigieg: 12% (in the previous Economist poll: 8%)
  • the rest don't matter, but for the record: Steyer, 1%; Bloomberg, "call me Mike," 3%;
November 28, 2019, T+31: New Hampshire -- Buttigieg's to lose

November 27, 2019, T+30: awesome. Another national poll and this time it's one of the more trusted pollsters, Quinnipiac:
  • Biden: healthy lead but well below 35% where he might have been in the beginning; 24%, and probably about as accurate as any poll I've seen; 24% for the guy out front is fairly pathetic
    • Sanders/Pocahontas: tied at 13 - 14%. DNC rules require 15% to get any delegates at all.
    • Buttigieg: finally a national poll that does show him surging; at 16%, above the 15% threshold and, although not statistically significant, ahead of both Sanders/Pocahontas
  • after that no one matters; for the record:
    • Bloomberg: 3%
    • Amy: surging; 3%
    • Steyer: 0% -- apparently folks don't "buy" his commercials; the only one who polls at zero is Steyer; LOL;
November 26, 2019, T+29: Michigan Democrat, huge Kamala Harris supporter, huge anti-Trumper, strong on impeachment, changes tune. Now, says "no" to impeachment efforts. Time to move on. Sees polls showing independents have had enough of this. Again, these polls mean nothing at this point, but they are fun to watch. This is the first poll after Bloomberg officially announces. This is a nationwide Politico poll:
  • nationwide:
    • Bloomberg: 2%; twice that of Julian Castro; really? Really.
    • Biden: still smashes it; leading at 30%; pretty much unchanged
    • Pocahontas: at 15%; well down from other recent polls showing 20% and 22%
    • Sanders: at 21% easily beats Pocahontas, but again, this is a nationwide Politico poll
    • Of course, no one else matters but for the record, Buttigieg unchanged at 9% despite all the media reports that he is surging (yes, in Iowa and New Hampshire, but that's where it ends)
    • Combined, (they each have 2%): Gabbie, Mike, Tom, Amy, and Cory -- a combined 10%
    • Amy was said to have surged after the last debate; LOL.  
  • No new Iowa poll, but we do have a new New Hampshire poll -- The Globe, 11/21 - 11/24, which does not include Mike:
    • Pocahontas, listed first, but only 14%
    • Buttigieg, listed second, but only 13%
    • Biden, listed third, but only 12%
    • finally, Crazy Bernie in his backyard: 16%
    • Amy, who was said to be surging after the last debate, at 1%
Remember, the rules: one must receive at least 15% of the votes to score any delegates. In the most recent New Hampshire poll (the Globe), only Bernie reaches that threshold and he is polling at 16%.

November 25, 2019, T+28: from https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/democrats-trump-impeachment-liz-peek: impeachment hearings; no clear front runner; no funds: Fundraising has explosed for the GOP, with the RNC reporting it hauled in $25.3 million during October, 2019, and had $61.4 million in the hopper at month's end. In contrast, the DNC brought in a mere $9 million. At the end of last month, October, 2019, the DNC was $7 million in debt and had only $8.7 million in the kitty. From  pretty smart strategist:
And I think people are now looking at it, and particularly independents, and saying, what are we doing on USMCA? What are we doing on opioids, prescription drugs, infrastructure, the business of the nation?

Vanity Fair went into a Politico Morning Consult poll. And the numbers are stunning. I think, by 3-1, independents don't know why we're doing this.
Impeachment ranked last among their interests, even lower than the wall, which is not high for independents.
November 24, 2019, T+27: Bloomberg announces he is running for president. My initial thought: the current wanna-be most hurt by this news: Biden. On second thought, it's Hillary. She has to re-calculate.

November 23, 2019, T+26: quiet.

November 22, 2019, T+25: another day, another poll. Today, Emerson, 11/17 - 11/20:
  • Biden/Sanders: tied at 27% -- this tells you how divided the party is right now
  • Pocahontas: spinning her wagon wheels; in a run; 20%
  • Buttigieg: all that talk about surging. LOL. Hasn't cracked 10% nationally. Emerson: 7%. 
  • Everyone after those four drops off a cliff.
  • Iowa: Biden is the big loser. At 12% (Iowa State) below the 15% threshold for any delegates
  • New Hampshire: wow, wow, wow -- Buttigieg (25%) beating the pants off Pocahontas (15%, tied with Biden) --St Anselm poll
November 21, 2019, T+24: California Supreme Court -- state can't force President Trump to release tax filings. The other day I mentioned that the fastest way to get the monkey off his back is for Prince Andrew to implicate former President Clinton in the Epstein scandal. Now it appears he is getting very, very close to meeting with the FBI. If he does, it would almost be impossible for an unbiased, serious investigator to not ask for "all" names. On another note, it is very, very clear that Prince Andrew's go-between for access to young women was Epstein. Prince Andrew visited Epstein even after convicted pedophile Epstein was released from prison according to the Daily Mail

November 20, 2019, T+23: bad day at the US House with regard to impeachment. But we move on. Three new polls out: Politico, 11/11/ - 11/7; The Hill, 11/16 - 11/17; and, the Economist, 11/17 - 11/19. Taken together:
  • Biden: all three show him as the national front-runner with 30 - 32%
  • Pocahontas slams Sanders in the Economist but the latter is an outlier; way too liberal; Economist polling is worthless; in the other two polls, pretty much a dead-heat between Pocahontas and Sanders (Sanders leads 18 - 15 in one; and Sanders leads 20 - 17 in the other)
  • Buttigieg: the national media continue to suggest he is the new star but nationally he polls at 8, 7, and 8 percent; in Iowa, Buttigieg is clearly ahead but right now the top four would split the delegates pretty much evenly; pretty much the same thing as Iowa, but Pocahontas and Buttigieg will slug it out there; Buttigieg pretty much falls off the radar scope everywhere else (Nevada; South Carolina; California)
  • bottom line: top three split the delegates three ways
  • Atlanta, GA, debate tonight;
November 19, 2019, T+22: quiet.

November 18, 2019, T+21: quiet.

November 17, 2019, T+20: Nancy Pelosi "invites" Trump to testify. Grasping for straws or brilliant politician? We'll know in less than a week whether the "invitation" has legs. My hunch: something will come along that will take the story off the front page. It seems something always does.

November 16, 2019, T+19, posted November 14, 2019: a reader asked what the next issue the Dems will use to attack Trump. My reply:
This is a no-brainer: formal withdrawal from global warming treaty putting the entire world at risk. Not taking the 12-year meme seriously will be new grounds for impeachment. Hillary will get the UN to lead the effort.
The U.S. started the process with a hand-delivered letter, becoming the only country to withdraw. The United Nations will soon set out procedural details for what happens next, UN deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said.
Agreement rules prevented any country from pulling out in the first three years after the Nov. 4, 2016, ratification. The U.S. withdrawal doesn’t become complete until the day after the 2020 election.

I would assume there are members of the US House working closely with the UN to develop the procedures.
November 15, 2019, T+18, posted November 13, 2019: I posted this about three months ago but it was very cryptic the way I posted it so as not to offend anyone. But with the news today, I will re-state it so it can't be missed: RBG will be gone by the end of the year (2019). On another note: Mitch McConnell needs to send his list of folks he will subpoena to Nancy Pelosi if the US House votes for impeachment, starting with the Bidens; Hillary; Comey; the entire intel community leadership under Obama - and with a formal trial, the subpoenas would be very, very legitimate. McConnell should let Pelosi know he is very, very serious and give her a week to shut the Schiff charade down or prepare for a very, very interesting trial in the US Senate.

November 14, 2019, T+17, link here, https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/11/12/trump-surges-women-suburbs-tops-all-democrat-candidates-large-donations/:
Women who live in America’s suburbs are supporting President Donald Trump’s re-election bid, says a new report at OpenSecrets.org, that shows Trump is benefiting from a surge in large-dollar donations from women in suburbs – more than any Democrat candidate.
While mainstream media are reporting some polls that suggest Trump is losing the support of women, the report by Open Secrets, part of the Center for Responsive Politics, shows the president has over 10,500 large-dollar contributions from women in suburbs, and has received $8,293,135 from them – the largest amount than any of the Democrat 2020 candidates.
November 13, 2019, T+16: the list of 56 and more. Pocahontas now wants to take away your doctor and your private health insurance. How is that playing out. The Economist poll, 11/10 - 11/12, just released:
  • Pocahontas: 26%, which seems to be trending up
  • Biden: 23%; maybe steady; perhaps down a bit
  • Sanders: unchanged at the 17% level
  • Buttigieg: no traction; polls at 9% (again this is national)
  • taking away your health insurance, apparently, continues to play well
November 12, 2019, T+15: going through this in a rational way, it sounds like a case could easily be made that the "whistleblower" and the "military colonel" are guilty of treason, high crimes, and misdemeanors, with conspiracy to overthrow a duly and legally elected president. This would explain why neither of them want to testify, especially if under oath. It seems it may be time for the judiciary committee of the US Senate to get involved. Something tells me "pajama boy" and the "military colonel" would spill the beans, as they say. And if I can think of this, I'm sure a lot of much smarter folks than I have already thought of this.

November 11, 2019, T+14: I enjoy listening to Rush Limbaugh on all of this. I knew the "whistleblower" had decided not to testify. Now I understand the military man Colonel Vindman won't testify either (I don't know if that's accurate). If neither do testify one wonders if they are worried about being accused of treason. It's not often one reads about a "coup" in an e-mail regarding the president of the US. It's one thing for a "pajama-man" civilian to be involved in a "coup" but it's quite another thing for a military colonel nearing the end of his career, looking forward to a nice retirement. 

November 10, 2019, T+13: quiet.

November 9, 2019, T+12: Mayor Bloomberg making rumbling noises about throwing his hat into the ring. Has filed for Alabama. Will skip Iowa and New Hampshire.

November 8, 2019, T+11: comparing Nixon, Clinton, and Trump impeachment process from the president's perspective. Huge difference. Nixon withdrew; knew he had lost. Clinton fought but knew he had committed the crime; survived due to public support. Trump fights, and knows he committed no crime. Will enjoy watching politicos in US House vote.

November 7, 2019, T+10: wow. The tweet surfaces -- one after Trump was elected -- "The coup has begun. Impeachment will follow. CNN will play a major role." Quinnipiac poll through 11/15 for IOWA just released:
  • statistical tie among the top 3, perhaps the top 4:
  • Pocahontas: 20
  • Buttigieg: 19
  • Sanders: 17
  • Biden: 15
  • other candidates irrelevant, but for the record -- Klobuchar, 5%; Harris, 4%; Steyer, 3%; 
  • reminder: to be "awarded" delegates, one must receive at least 15% of the votes;
November 6, 2019, T+9: anyone paying attention can see that Hillary will seek the Democrat nomination for president; it is simply a matter of when she will announce / enter the race. This will be fascinating to watch. I suggest that it will occur at the DNC convention. Two new national polls have just been released, an Economist poll and a Monmouth poll. Both show Biden and Pocahontas in a statistical tie; the Monmouth poll suggests a three-way tie: Biden-Pocahontas-Sanders. For all that talk of Buttigieg surging, in no poll does he get to 10%. His best is 9% in the Monmouth poll. None of the other candidates are even worth mentioning. The Monmouth totals to 89% which means 11% are undecided.  The top three total 66% which means that at most 34% split their votes among the top three. An additional 15% to either Biden or Pocahontas does not get them to 50% +1. There is no new Iowa/New Hampshire poll.

November 5, 2019, T+8: across the board, from the far left to the far right, Pocahontas has been panned for her "Medicare for all" won't cost middle class anything, but they will loss all their private insurance campaign promise -- waiting to see how this will affect her in the polls. The most recent poll, a Politico poll, 10/28- 11/3, has just been released:
  • Pocahontas: 20% -- a very poor showing, nationally
  • Sanders at 20%: ties Pocahontas
  • Biden: 32%
  • Buttigieg: with no mojo -- back to 7%
  • two polls through 11/2 in Nevada released: almost identical to the national poll
November 4, 2019, T+7: Interesting. Rush Limbaugh on talk radio today said the same thing I said a couple of days ago (see below): the national polls do not matter (don't take that out of context); but it is the states where delegates are won. 

November 3, 2019, T+6: quiet?

November 2, 2019, T+5: wow, four new national polls have come out, 10/27 -10/30 for three of them; 10/29 - 10/31, for the fourth. In addition, new state polls for Iowa, New Hampshire. I don't think the national polls mean a whole lot; it's all about state delegates. National polling provides fodder for donors, newspaper headlines. Having said that:
  • nationally: not much has really changed; in most polls, the gap between Pocahontas and Biden narrows but in the Fox News poll, 31 - 21 and in the Harris poll, 33 - 15, Biden remains clearly on top in both. Interesting. Sanders pretty much polling the same, nationally.
  • But at the state level, where delegates matter it gets much more interesting.
  • Iowa: although not statistically significant, Biden trails Buttigieg and Biden is now in third place; Pocahontas is in first place (22) vs Buttigieg (18). Sanders at 19 out-polls Biden; it's a four-way race; Biden is fading; Buttigieg is gaining
  • New Hampshire: Iowa might help Buttigieg, but right now Buttigieg is not at the 15% threshold that is needed to gain any delegates; the tea leaves suggest that will change;
  • South Carolina: this is where Buttigieg gets stopped; if he does well in Iowa, that will help in New Hampshire, but he will get stopped in South Carolina for at least a couple of reasons
  • With the recent "craziness" of Pocahontas ("Medicare for all" won't raise taxes on the middle class), Biden might make a comeback -- but in Iowa/New Hampshire, Buttigieg might be the benefactor, and one can almost predict that Buttigieg will take California; Buttigieg might get stopped in the south, but he is looking better and better across the northeast, midwest, and far west. 
November 1, 2019, T+4: VDH. Later: "Hell, yes, I'm out of the race." -- Beto.

October 31, 2019, T+3: Kamala out? Out of cash. Laying off staff. Consolidating operations. Castro was out of money some weeks ago. Crowd starting to shrink. Two new polls out today. Biden/Pocahontas consolidate. Sanders, surprisingly, drops. Kamala Harris -- pretty much done. Beto and Castro both poll zero. Nada. Nil. Zilch. Steyer at 1%. Pocahontas seems to be slipping. Buttigieg moving up -- still well below the "magic" 15% threshold but in a month or so, could be close.

October 30, 2019, T+2: we have nothing to fear but fear itself.



October 29, 2019, T+1: see Real Clear Politics link (also above) -- the most recent poll -- Politico does not support recent mainstream media headlines.
  • The mainstream media headlines I'm seeing:
    • Buttigieg is the new "next hope"
      • Pocahontas was surging; probably still is, but Buttigieg is the one to watch
    • Biden is imploding; having difficulty raising money
    • Kamala Harris could to well in California
  • from the most recent poll, Politico, 10/21 - 10/27, these are my takeaways:
    • amazingly, Biden not only maintains, but actually is trending up; of the most recent six polls, Biden did better in the most recent poll with one exception (CNN, 34% vs 32%)
    • Pocahontas at 20% has flat-lined; no change in all six polls; was 28% in Quinnipiac several polls ago
    • Bernie: as good as he has ever done (20% - which by the way, ties with Pocahontas); heart attack? what heart attack?
  • then all the rest 
    • Buttigieg? the one to watch; the one surging; the one who could win? 
      • in only one poll is Buttigieg "breaking out" -- Iowa in Iowa State poll but in big scheme of things, pretty much unchanged
    • Harris: completely unchanged, at 6%, nationally; in California? 8%. 
  • remember: to be awarded any delegates, one must receive at least 15% of the popular vote
  • the rest of the rest: 0.7% (Castro) to 2.5% (Yang)
  • I happened to catch a Steyer television ad -- it looks like he's gotten the message -- he has changed his message, unless I missed something -- he didn't say anything about impeachment
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