Updates
Decmber 24, 2022, link here:
Original Post
ISO NE: link here.
Friday, December 23, 2022
Through November, 2023, Ford Has Sold Only 13,258 F-150 Lightnings -- Ramping Up Too 150,000 Units By Next Fall -- December, 2022
Why Rivian hit an all-time low today:
- perfect storm:
- expensive;
- in tough times, investors want "return" (dividends)
- recession won't treat EVs well
- dire;
F-150 Lightning:
- new price hike (reported earlier); link here;
- the latest pricing increase – at least the third this year – comes as Ford attempts to expand production of the electric pickup to 150,000 units by next fall;
- the company earlier this week said it remains on track to do so, as it recently added a third shift of workers to a Michigan plant producing the vehicle.
- “Demand for this breakthrough vehicle is strong and continues to grow, we will continue to monitor pricing through the model year,” the spokeswoman said in the emailed statement.
- through the end of November, Ford had only sold 13,258 F-150 Lightnings.
Most EV companies had "down day" on the market today; on a day the market was otherwise up.
Tesla, link here:
Tesla stock fell another 8.8% on Thursday, yesterday, December 22, 2022, bringing its year-to-date losses to 64%.
With this decline, more than $800 billion in market capitalization has been erased from the electric carmaker. The current 69.7% drawdown from its most recent high reached in late 2021 is the largest in Tesla's corporate history.
And this slide has been good news to short-sellers.
Data from S3 Partners published Thursday showed that through Wednesday's close, Tesla was the year's most profitable short — or stock traders were betting against — with mark-to-market profits totaling $15.03 billion so far this year. And these figures don't reflect Thursday's decline.
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Nutcracker
Geoff Simon's Top Stories For The Week -- December 24, 2022
Last week's blizzard shut down one-third of Bakken total production.
Land Board completes acreage adjustment.
- $130 million returned to private mineral owners
- this was Part II of the 2-part adjustment
- issue: ordinary high water mark west of the Fort Berthold reservation
- Part I: east of US Highway 85
- Part II: west of US Highway 85
- surveys here;
Basin Electric to add 350 miles of high-voltage transmission in western ND over the next five years; archived.
- one of the first phases: Neset-to-Northshore; New Town to Tioga
- expected to be energized January, 2023 (next month)
North Dakota population closes in on 780,000
- a new estimate released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that North Dakota’s population reached a new all-time high of 779,261 residents as of July 1, 2022.
- the 2021 estimate indicated population had declined.
Week 51: December 18, 2022 -- December 24, 2022
Top US energy story of the year:
Top story:
- Joe Biden is still president
Top international non-energy story:
- Russian-Ukraine war continues
- Zelensky makes first known trip outside of Ukraine since war began
- visits President Biden in DC
Top international energy story:
- Russia says it may cut production by 500,000 bopd
Top national non-energy story:
- peaked already? quadruple threat: Covid-19; seasonal flu; pneumococcal pneumonia, and, RSV
- Title 42 -- temporary injunction; "southern surge" -- public health issue -- Covid-19
Top national energy story:
- WTI flirts with $80 by end of week on news that Russia might cut production
Javier Blas:
Focus on fracking: most recent edition.
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
- Polar vortex shuts down 1/3rd Bakken production
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
Bakken economy:
Commentary:
Playing Dice With Mother Nature -- December 23, 2022
Note: we're doing our part. Heat / furnace is turned off; it's been off all day except for a.m. when we got up to take off the chill, and then about fifteen minutes earlier this afternoon. But off now and expect to keep it off until tomorrow morning. Lots of blankets on the bed.
Breaking: 7:07 p.m. CT -- it's now being reported tens of thousands of folks are without electricity in Tarrant County (Ft Worth), Texas, our county. There are no storms here, so it must be ERCOT grid unable to keep up with demand.
Slightly earlier: link here.
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Original Post
Original Post
Holy mackerel -- this is going to be close. Earlier today it looked great but it looks like the wind if dying down. It's going to be really, really close.
Playing dice with Mother Nature. This is really, really crazy.
Random Production Update For The Enerplus Seal Well In Antelope-Sanish -- December 23, 2022
The well:
- 37728, loc/A, Enerplus, Seal 151-94-33D-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 113K 3/22; cum 229K 10/22;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANISH | 10-2022 | 31 | 14694 | 14528 | 8124 | 47666 | 45429 | 64 |
| SANISH | 9-2022 | 30 | 15204 | 15218 | 8527 | 38138 | 34865 | 115 |
| SANISH | 8-2022 | 30 | 22448 | 22395 | 11987 | 51776 | 47305 | 414 |
| SANISH | 7-2022 | 31 | 23032 | 23044 | 15739 | 44217 | 40523 | 3 |
| SANISH | 6-2022 | 30 | 24375 | 24423 | 18999 | 54334 | 50400 | 197 |
| SANISH | 5-2022 | 22 | 12391 | 12314 | 33696 | 25449 | 22786 | 81 |
| SANISH | 4-2022 | 10 | 4373 | 4379 | 16192 | 9767 | 8147 | 168 |
| SANISH | 3-2022 | 26 | 27356 | 27361 | 18611 | 61618 | 58122 | 89 |
| SANISH | 2-2022 | 28 | 41655 | 41634 | 35520 | 80736 | 76323 | 403 |
| SANISH | 1-2022 | 11 | 19166 | 19165 | 16240 | 33698 | 31350 | 603 |
| SANISH | 12-2021 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SANISH | 11-2021 | 12 | 24373 | 24322 | 28717 | 36387 | 33085 | 1347 |
Random Update Production For An Ovintiv Johnson Well In South Tobacco Garden -- December 23, 2022
The well:
- 38596, conf-->loc/A, Ovintiv, Johnson 150-99-34-27-5HLW, South Tobacco Garden, t--; cum 208K 10/22; at wellhead, 208K x $70 = $14.6 million in eight months;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 31 | 12536 | 12524 | 19583 | 45306 | 43749 | 1427 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 30 | 15442 | 15474 | 22408 | 45037 | 43510 | 1395 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 31 | 18583 | 18503 | 25634 | 50456 | 47304 | 3021 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 31 | 22077 | 22023 | 30080 | 56862 | 53203 | 3519 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 30 | 27816 | 27891 | 32773 | 51229 | 48313 | 2782 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 31 | 21926 | 22119 | 42736 | 61376 | 52948 | 8265 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 30 | 40456 | 40729 | 47411 | 68481 | 61083 | 7165 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 28 | 48990 | 48190 | 66168 | 78286 | 75880 | 2177 |
Random Production Update For One Of The Incredible CLR Charolais Wells -- December 23, 2022
This page won't be updated. This well is tracked elsewhere.
- 37901, loc/A, CLR, Charolais South Federal 6-10H, Elm Tree, t--; cum 190K 9/22;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 31 | 22367 | 22350 | 11465 | 70621 | 69909 | 294 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 30 | 23093 | 23102 | 11472 | 61986 | 61134 | 466 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 31 | 22959 | 22988 | 11350 | 45348 | 44691 | 451 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 31 | 35231 | 35248 | 14546 | 65284 | 64094 | 984 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 30 | 35907 | 35947 | 13647 | 58946 | 58254 | 500 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 31 | 40994 | 40881 | 16328 | 61376 | 59688 | 1688 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 27 | 31453 | 31389 | 14653 | 45315 | 44376 | 939 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 4 | 401 | 401 | 2201 | 844 | 0 | 844 |
CLR Bang Wells In Cedar Coulee Have Been Completed -- A CLR Whitman Well With An 80x Jump In Production -- December 23, 2022
There is so much work left to be done in the Bakken. It's all about TOC.
The Bang wells are tracked elsewhere.
Initial production of Bang #12.
- 38609, conf-->drl/A, CLR, Bang 12-4H, Cedar Coulee, t--; cum 90K 10/22;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 31 | 50232 | 50545 | 20096 | 53011 | 52158 | 637 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 25 | 39286 | 38835 | 17388 | 43366 | 40918 | 2448 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 1 | 567 | 567 | 1028 | 458 | 0 | 458 |
Parent well:
- 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 271K 10/22; recent production:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 31 | 34679 | 34024 | 47258 | 43075 | 42642 | 214 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 5 | 1722 | 1675 | 5530 | 2183 | 2179 | 2 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 1 | 51 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 17 | 3907 | 4225 | 1511 | 4824 | 4667 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 17 | 5069 | 4818 | 2902 | 5191 | 4979 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 24 | 6372 | 6654 | 2750 | 8244 | 7946 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 31 | 11550 | 11608 | 5835 | 14730 | 14311 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 31 | 16004 | 16229 | 8969 | 19237 | 18818 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 30 | 20533 | 20341 | 19563 | 22195 | 21790 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 6 | 3319 | 3019 | 5476 | 3288 | 3207 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 1 | 100 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 30 | 457 | 586 | 117 | 888 | 496 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2021 | 31 | 500 | 524 | 82 | 959 | 540 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 477 | 576 | 78 | 897 | 505 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 31 | 515 | 312 | 93 | 925 | 506 | 0 |
A Bang-TF parent well:
- 18636, 633, CLR, Bang 2-33T, Cedar Coulee, t5/10; cum 250K 10/22;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 1 | 41 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 25 | 2584 | 3016 | 1332 | 2731 | 2407 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 29 | 3071 | 3183 | 1468 | 2940 | 2512 | 77 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 31 | 3664 | 3884 | 1877 | 3531 | 3117 | 0 |
Just to the east, the incredible CLR Whitman wells. An early parent Whitman well:
- 17061, 664, CLR, Whitman 11-34H, Oakdale, t6/08; cum 585K 10/22; recent production; 31K over 18 days extrapolates to 52K over one month; 52K / 656 = 80x jump in production:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 31 | 14261 | 14314 | 12380 | 18998 | 18757 | 2 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 30 | 36194 | 36217 | 25834 | 39966 | 39770 | 196 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 18 | 31218 | 31087 | 17708 | 25267 | 23665 | 1602 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 14 | 236 | 553 | 7 | 387 | 275 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 31 | 656 | 550 | 52 | 1241 | 822 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 26 | 584 | 756 | 21 | 1034 | 696 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 30 | 713 | 579 | 57 | 1247 | 843 | 0 |
Whiting's Lacey Well In The Sanish -- December 23, 2022
200K in ten months = 200K x $60 at the well head = $12 million.
The well:
- 37553, conf, Whiting, Lacey 13-10-2H, Sanish, t--; cum 203K 10/22;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 12 | 5000 | 5050 | 4540 | 7169 | 6985 | 184 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 30 | 12444 | 12562 | 6894 | 19595 | 19250 | 345 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 23 | 10428 | 10514 | 6635 | 17727 | 11069 | 6658 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 31 | 17395 | 17466 | 11240 | 30470 | 29936 | 534 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 30 | 17246 | 17323 | 13797 | 23095 | 22120 | 975 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 31 | 23347 | 23248 | 14100 | 25449 | 24692 | 757 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 23 | 18125 | 18318 | 12284 | 18798 | 16042 | 2756 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 31 | 27096 | 27120 | 16114 | 23606 | 22542 | 1064 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 28 | 26801 | 26629 | 18298 | 22016 | 18346 | 3670 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 31 | 31241 | 31269 | 25963 | 24790 | 21986 | 2804 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 30 | 13587 | 13073 | 31800 | 5739 | 5739 | 0 |
The parent well, recent production:
- 18953, 2,534, Whiting, Lacey 12-10H, Sanish, t10/10; cum 338K 10/22;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 31 | 1896 | 1877 | 874 | 1317 | 1223 | 32 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 30 | 1760 | 1793 | 891 | 1258 | 1177 | 21 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 31 | 2080 | 2059 | 785 | 831 | 480 | 289 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 31 | 1643 | 1611 | 1015 | 789 | 714 | 13 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 4 | 106 | 103 | 35 | 151 | 138 | 6 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2021 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 29 | 883 | 801 | 214 | 931 | 931 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 31 | 1102 | 1168 | 214 | 1251 | 1189 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 1116 | 1041 | 238 | 1037 | 981 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 1300 | 1445 | 231 | 1332 | 1270 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 30 | 1135 | 1059 | 240 | 1345 | 1287 |