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Saturday, June 4, 2022

My Refrigerator Vs Africa -- June 4, 2022

Climate alarmists never took a science course after eighth grade. Or a math course.

Link here.

But look at this chart.  

At that thread, someone wrote:

What a joke. There will be no new nuclear reactors in my investing lifetime which I forecast to be thirty years.

The Far Side -- June 4, 2022

I haven't quite decided. 

My Monday-through-Friday, "Back to the Bakken" is sacrosanct. Three items:

  • active rigs / WTI
  • wells coming off the confidential list
  • RBN Energy

I am seriously considering adding a fourth link: The Far Side. Yes, as of 2020, Gary Larson has his own web page

We'll see. 

*************************
The Sports Page

Why would anyone schedule a NASCAR race in Portland, OR? OMG. SMH. ROFL. LOL. LMAO. AYKM?

Everyone has his car covered, and everyone is under an umbrella. Everyone in the stands look as uncomfortable as "hell," trying too look cool with a craft beer and it's raining. Hey, it's Portland. But it looks like they have rain-tires on and the race will start on time, although I see "machinery" out there trying to get the track ready. 

The first turn is a disaster. 

On top of everything else, an incredibly narrow track.

Why, oh, why, NASCAR in Portland? LOL. 

Noah Gragson: "The key is to keep the car on the racetrack." Okay. 

FS1 for those wondering where it is airing / streaming.

Later: now that they've started, it looks like they're running about 50 mph over most of the course.

First six laps: boring.

For Investors -- June 4, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

From the "investors" tab, link here.

June 4, 2022: next week, stocks to watch --

  • Apple's WWDC
  • economic data to be reported:
  • headline inflation:
    • forecast, 8.2% y/y for May
    • forecast, 8.3% y/y for April
    • some see core CPI trickling down to 5.9% from 6.2 (after backing our energy, food)
  • reporting earnings next week: Campbell Soup, DocuSign
  • investor events: AMD, AAPL
  • FB disappears; replaced by META
  • dividend watch: Credit Suisse notes: IBM, CVX, KO, EMR, SWK, NEE, CL, SYY, MCD and CAT.

From that same link:

Apple WWDC preview

Apple (AAPL) will hold its Worlwide Developers Conference to expectations that updates to iOS/iPad OS, macOS, tvOS, and watchOS, and other software reveals will be made. 

Ahead of WWDC, the company teased an update to the Swift open-source programming language. 

Analysts think there is a chance of a "one more thing" hardware surprise, as well as a potential announcement of a NFL Sunday Ticket contract win. 

Looking ahead, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives believes the tech giant is gearing up to bid on a number of upcoming sports packages besides the NFL that are coming up for contract/renewals in future years. 

Also of high interest, Morgan Stanley said there is the potential for Apple to tease its entrance into the mixed-reality headset market. 

What does WWDC mean for Apple shares? Over the last 10 years Apple has underperformed the S&P 500 by a median of 100 bps in the week after the event, but outperformed the S&P by 70 bps in the one month following the event.

A Reader Takes A Look At The Ovintiv Rolfsrud Well -- June 4, 2022

In reply to the post on the Ovintiv Rolfsrud well, a reader and regular correspondent sent me this note:

Just as a reminder, at current market prices, these Bakken wells are producing some serious revenue. 
100,000 barrels of oil at $100 per gives gross revenue of ten million bucks. 
Likewise, natgas at $5 per 1,000 cubic feet gives half a million bucks for each hundred million cubic feet. 
That Ovintov Rolfsrud well today produced ~220,000 barrels of oil and ~730,000,000 cubic feet of gas in its first 8 months.
This would have produced  over $25 million at $100/$5 WTI/HH. 
If one uses an $8 million dollar cost to D&C a Bakken well, one can see just how financially worthwhile these wells have become. 
Amongst other ramifications, the productive footprint for North Dakota wells - indeed, ALL the 'shale' plays - has been vastly expanded.

We're In Trouble -- Texas Electricity Rates -- The Dallas Morning News -- June 4, 2022

Of course, this is a local story -- The Dallas Morning News talking about electricity rates in Texas and then re-printed in the Grand Forks Herald


The linked article fails to mention one of the major reasons why electricity rates have increased in Texas in the past year. We've talked about this before.

The linked article also fails to mention the "actual" rates among the 50 states:

Most expensive, to least expensive, selected states; in bold red: New England and New York:

  • Connecticut: 26.48 cents; hates pipelines, up a whopping 16.7% from a year ago
  • Rhode Island: 25.69 cents, up 6.6% from a year ago 
  • California: 25.59 cents; up 13.6% from last year;
  • New Hampshire: 22.15 cents; hates pipelines; up a whopping 14.9% from last year
  • New York: 21.58 cents; hates pipelines; up a whopping 14.9% from last year
  • Maine: 20.95 cents; hates pipelines; up an incredible 29% from last year
  • New Jersey: 15.77 cents; down 3.7% from last year
  • Pennsylvania: 14.48 cents; lots of natural gas, up 10.7% from a year ago
  • Texas: 12.28 cents, down 3.6% from a year ago
  • North Dakota: lots of coal, 9.64 cents; lots of coal, up 1.9% from a year ago

Texas is near the bottom. North Dakota is least expensive. 

And color me impressed if any reader can show me a total utility bill (electricity + natural gas) that is lower than my total utility bill for the month of May, 2022:

My monthly bill. This is my entire utility bill. I do not have natural gas:

Yes, this is in Texas, where apparently we have a problem.

Right now, Saturday morning, 10:12 a.m. EDT:

April 26, 2022 rates, link here, monthly cost, numbers rounded:

  • Massachusetts; $230
  • New Hampshire: $200
  • Texas: $110 (year/year change: down 4%)
  • North Dakota: $85

A Twofer: They're Reading The Blog -- Why I Love To Blog -- June 4, 2022

I said this a couple of weeks ago; I even had a poll: name the one thing -- with regard to energy -- that will never again be built in the US. I may find that link later, if the spirit moves me.

Now, the CEO of CVX said the very same thing. Link here

And that, unfortunately is what we need. We have plenty of oil, way more than we need. What we need is more refining capacity. US refiners are already working at 93% of their operable capacity, more than double what IRS employees seem capable of doing.

EVs -- After Two Decades, Still Not Ready For Prime Time -- June 4, 2022

Updates


June 4, 2022
: link here

And this won't change. The "wait-time" will only get worse as time goes on. 

Original Post

Link here to The WSJ

Most interesting are the comments to this article which attempt to "defend" EVs. Those comments fall into two groups:

  • the driver / writer would not have had this problem had she driven a Tesla; and,
  • the highways from Chicago to New Orleans are particularly lacking in charging stations compared to other highways ... like those, say, in North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming.

The fact is, EVs are nowhere near ready for prime time in the US. 

Exhibit A: the linked article.

Exhibit B: GM "slashing" the price of the Chevy Bolt despite record high gasoline price.

Exhibit C: how long has it been?

  • when did this article appear? 2022
  • when was Tesla founded? 2003

*****************************
Rivian

Link here to The WSJ:


From the linked article:
Car factories around the world routinely churn out models around the clock. 
About eight months after production on Rivian’s electric trucks started, executives recently marked a milestone in uninterrupted work days: The company’s plant ran at full speed for an entire 10-hour work shift for the first time. 
Rivian, which investors see as the Tesla Inc. of trucks, has tens of thousands of customer preorders in the burgeoning market for electric vehicles. The startup is rolling out three new models in quick succession at its freshly overhauled factory—an undertaking that even seasoned auto executives say is fraught.

Are you kidding me?

  • when did this article appear? 2022
  • when was Rivian founded? 2009

*********************************
Meanwhile

Link here

Rigs Don't Matter -- June 4, 2022

Rigs don't matter -- don't take that out of context.

Link here

This is an incredibly interesting graphic -- but it's subtle and my arrows are only part of the story. The rest of the graphic is so subtle in what it says I cannot explain it using written words. I may have to do a video to point out what I'm seeing. 

In addition, the graph shows another interesting phenomenon regarding the Permian (which, by the way, also applies to the Bakken, of course). Again, too hard to explain without a video. Maybe later. 

The original graph:

The graph with overlying black arrows:

In California, Taking "Self-Identificatiion" To The Next Level -- Honeybees Can Self-Identify As Fish -- June 4, 2022

This is from The Sacramento Bee, not The Babylon Bee


I cannot make this stuff up. 

Next, The Onion will run a story about Brussels sprouts self-identifying as okra.

Mr Greni: 50 Years Old This Year -- Happy Birthday -- June 4, 2022

Mr Greni, original post is here. Mr Greni:

5227, 624, Luff Exploration, Greni 33-26, a Red River well, t11/72; cum 1,317,961 bbs 6/19; this well has a pretty colorful history. I believe it began as a vertical well, was re-entered and two very short laterals were placed; a work-over rig in 2003 significantly increased production. Note that it was drilled in late 1972, and continues to produce about 1,400 bbls of oil per month, which is what some Bakken wells produce after the end of the severe decline rate and then begin to level off. Is that about 47 years of production? Note: over 1.3 million bbls of oil to date; cum 1.358734 4/22. Still producing nicely:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
RED RIVER4-2022291205142565512970253
RED RIVER3-2022311388143273823420295
RED RIVER2-2022281239105665103050263
RED RIVER1-2022311357139871463340287
RED RIVER12-2021311348139071713320285
RED RIVER11-2021301302136569593200275
RED RIVER10-2021311262102571913110264
RED RIVER9-2021301300140070903200275
RED RIVER8-2021311377140172433390292
RED RIVER7-2021311415136170703480301
RED RIVER6-2021301397135071003440299
RED RIVER5-20212682264254322020163
RED RIVER4-2021291053135856623120268

Random Update: Oldest Producing Well In North Dakota? Woodrow Star "A" 1 -- June 4, 2022

It appears CLR has bragging rights to the oldest producing well in North Dakota; full story about this well is posted here; it's quite a story. This well will be 63  years old later this year. Update today:

  • 1987, 150, CLR/Pan American/Prima, Woodrow Star "A" 1, Antelope field; Sanish; t10/58; cum 1.105586  million bbls 6/19; cum 1.107755 million bbls 4/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH4-20222514005332100
SANISH3-20223125145612241900
SANISH2-202228246010537800
SANISH1-2022292464488738500
SANISH12-2021242522238232400
SANISH11-2021282372331186620284
SANISH10-2021312622381125790178
SANISH9-2021302092331206000195
SANISH8-2021272122291275620211
SANISH7-2021141140222227038
SANISH6-20210000000
SANISH5-20210000000
SANISH4-20210000000
SANISH3-20210000000
SANISH2-20210000000
SANISH1-20210000000
SANISH12-20200000000
SANISH11-20200000000
SANISH10-20200000000
SANISH9-20200000000

"Zero" production went all the way back to 12/18. 

Happy Birthday To You, Happy Birthday To You, .... June 4, 2022

So I don't forget, an early birthday wish, to Cedar Creek Unit 8B 14X-2A-8 -- celebrating its 61st birthday in August:

  • 2949, 260, Denbury Onshore, Cedar Creek Unit 8B 14X-2A-8, Cedar Creek, unitized, t8/61; cum 474K 4/18; producing for 61 years; cum 486K 4/22;

Random Update Of An Ovintiv Rolfsrud Well -- June 4, 2022

The well;

  • 38193, conf-->drl/A, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-7HLW, Westberg, API 33-053-09667; first production, 8/21; t--; cum 219K 4/22; no frack data, yet;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2022291080210839159347864077798842
BAKKEN3-2022311549215525194639207291379693
BAKKEN2-20222815861158802006284383810613322
BAKKEN1-2022312060920953241528140280411991
BAKKEN12-20213122268219342416767964667351229
BAKKEN11-2021303106331149350039346792944523
BAKKEN10-2021314021240141417919615495843311
BAKKEN9-2021304129241310459671028781016151263
BAKKEN8-2021162113920823291134481644816

Incredible QEP MHA Wells In Van Hook -- Update -- June 3, 2022

These wells came off confidential list, 4Q21: 

Friday, October 1, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 228 for the year:

  • 35456, con-->drl/A, QEP, MHA 5-29-30H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 302K 4/22;
  • 35454, conf-->drl/A, QEP, MHA 5-27-26H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 199K 4/22;
  • 35451, conf-->loc/A, QEP, MHA 4-29-30H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 342K 4/22;
  • 35449, conf-->loc/A, QEP, MHA 4-27-26H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 239K 4/22;

Note production for #35456:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202222889090330860766541588
BAKKEN3-20223116187161951177414624121741882
BAKKEN2-20222816187161631166015928138951462
BAKKEN1-20223119718197051405518726132884751
BAKKEN12-20213120740205651582018391124375182
BAKKEN11-20213021058212011892219439124296138
BAKKEN10-2021312441024101121624934895115899
BAKKEN9-20213025289256622366922575267119904
BAKKEN8-202131282002782024573263821533311046
BAKKEN7-20212825512255372356422056137848272
BAKKEN6-20213044939449394040834521254909031
BAKKEN5-202131490964899447281391852191117180
BAKKEN4-20212149814332416318221