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Monday, September 11, 2023

Lucid Update -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45620EVS.

Holy mackerel! What a great Monday Night NFL game! Holy mackerel!

Okay, now back to reality. 



LOL. Does One Really Think That Saudi's MSB Really Cares? September 11, 2023

Locator: 45616OIL.

First of all, $90-oil is not all that high when put into historical perspective and then ... 

From this evening over at oilprice.com:

From a few days ago:

And, of course, Russia needs all the revenue it can get -- it's at war.

A Closer Look At Four New Wells Proposed By Hess -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45615B.

Right now these permits are not confidential; at some point they will become confidential.

Note: there is much more to do on this post, but it gives one an idea of what's going on in this very, very busy area. 

This is my interpretation of the various file reports which are not yet confidential.  My interpretation could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I'm pretty close. Readers are welcome to point out my errors so I can correct them. Except for one well, I believe they are all standard two-mile horizontals, but one appears to be a three-mile lateral.  

With the spacing unit already so "crowded," I was curious how Hess was going to squeeze in four or five more wells.

In today's daily activity report, the new permits:

The site where these wells will be sited (inside the oval):

From the company's file report for one of the proposed wells:


And specifically, the wells as listed below In red, I've added the NDIC file number. I am unable to find the fifth file number:

 This is the company's diagram. I will notate it later and provide more explanation later.

Basic information:
  • 40193, 2560-acre: 31 / 32 / 33 / 34 - 155-93; Three Forks first bench, BH: 31-155-93; 21209 feet TD;
  • 40194, 3840-acre: 26 / 27 / 28 / 33 / 34 / 35 - 155-93; Three Forks first bench, BH: 35-155-93; 26128 feet TD;
  • 40195, 2560-acre: 29 / 20 / 31 / 32 - 155-93; middle Bakken, BH: 31-155-93; BH: 31-155-93; Alger; 200965 feet;
  • 40196, 1280-acre: 21 / 28 - 155-93; Three Forks first bench, BH: 21-155-93; 20673 feet TD;

More:

  • Except for #40196, an EN-Dobrovolny well, which runs south to north; the other three wells run east to west, or west to east but regardless of whether they run east or run west, are named EN-Cvancara wells. 
  • The two wells that run to the west:
    • 40195, A-LN 1, runs east to west and is north of:
    • 40193, A, which also runs east to west.
  • The two wells that run to the east:
    • xxxxx, LS-1, will run west to east; no file number yet (?), and will be north of:
    • 40194, LS-2, will run west to east.

Five New Permits; Two Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45614B.

Active rigs: 35.

Five new permits, #40193 - #40197, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (4); Five States Operating
  • Fields: Robinson Lake (Mountrail); and, Rocky Hill (Stark)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for three EN-Cvancara A wells and one EN-Dobrovolny well, SESE 29-155-93, 
      • to be sited 412 FSL and between 726 FEL and 825 FEL;
    • Five States Operating has a permit for an RH well, NWNW 16-138-99; 
      • to be sited 350 FNL and 1270 FWL

Two permits renewed:

  • BR: a Manchester permit, and a Concord permit, both SWSW 10-147-97;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38392, 1,585, Slawson, Lunker Federal 3-33-4H,
  • 39266, 1,612, Grayson Mill, Porter 26-35 3H,
  • 39613, 921, Kraken, Gladys 29-20-17 3H,

New Covid-19 Vaccines Approved By FDA -- Should Be Available Within Days -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45613COVID.

Link here.

Memo to self: RSV, "seasonal flu," and Covid-19 (Autumn - 2023).

*************************************
Buc-ee's

On our cross-country trip from Dallas to Philadelphia, three Buc-ee's: Royse City, TX, northeast of Dallas; Nashville, and Knoxville. 

We had so much fun stopping at each one.

Here I am shopping at midnight (or thereabouts) for gifts for the grandchildren at the Buc-ee's in Nashville (or maybe it was Knoxville). 

The Bakken Continues To Amaze -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45612B.

Just look at all the work that yet needs to be done. This is one section -- less than a mile from far west well to far east well, and look at all the wells still on confidential status:


This is happening all over the Bakken.

A BR Saddle Butte Well Is Starting To Report -- A Very Nice Well -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45611B. 

 From a year ago:

  • 30925, loc/IA, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9TFH North Fork; starting to produce; no data; production now:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20232617314175081416631586289051295
BAKKEN6-20233033302331252864530977262263615
BAKKEN5-202331103151018259671116110419275
BAKKEN4-202330000000
BAKKEN3-2023212142140000

 And, also, this, from a year ago:

  • 37814, loc/IA, BR, Saddle Jerome 44-9 MBH-ULW, North Fork, starting to production; minimal production reported;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20232621633216331310038750371381576
BAKKEN6-20233031676315081655244690392283762
BAKKEN5-2023312714271412815166488463
BAKKEN4-202330000000
BAKKEN3-2023241531537352416130440

Two BR Curtis Wells Starting To Report; Nice But Not Great Wells -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45610B.

From a year ago:

  • 30924, loc/A, BR, Curtis 44-9 MBH, North Fork; starting to produce; no data;
  • 30923, loc/A, BR, Curtis 44-9 TFH, North Fork; starting to produce; no data;

Now, new production data:

  • 30923:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20231119711985215033003004152
BAKKEN6-20233028562829299934293054226
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-202330000000
BAKKEN3-202315000000
  • 30924:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2023261798817988917233746309371325
BAKKEN6-2023301289213037658212009103641196
BAKKEN5-20233120580203157586217422078922
BAKKEN4-202330000000
BAKKEN3-202312000000

Updating A Nice Oasis Siverston Well And Another Example Of The Halo Effect -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45609B. 

 Halo effect and look how long "the halo effect" is lasting / lasted:

  •  17952, 406, Oasis, Klamm 13-10H, Siverston; t-6/09; cum 274K 7/23; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2023129847611205497949232
BAKKEN6-202328200220191849730171990
BAKKEN5-202331194023091518888358762905
BAKKEN4-2023302745255019029798963755
BAKKEN3-202331200821882453712056551436
BAKKEN2-202327293828082877977676432107
BAKKEN1-2023313229325723191131898041371
BAKKEN12-20221829893001702571636517616
BAKKEN11-202230494347842795117661157537
BAKKEN10-20223146264440601132610863423
BAKKEN9-202224293929392005716359921060
BAKKEN8-202230538557201501201111203685
BAKKEN7-2022317728775510003163051587352
BAKKEN6-202230671565671137413326116981256
BAKKEN5-2022275183549799751041848505237
BAKKEN4-202219377532191005062605143839
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-202200590000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20213000000
BAKKEN10-202129381479145135513451
BAKKEN9-2021296757153201954189539
BAKKEN8-202128605472150197619536
BAKKEN7-20213157071315018051515275
BAKKEN6-2021286147064771640432
BAKKEN5-20213163048215018674041153

The neighboring well:

  • 38334, F/A, Oasis, Soto 5097 12-3 3B, Siverston; very nice well; t--; cum 297K 4/23; cum 325K 7/23; full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202331812081509236526355209741
BAKKEN6-2023308976904686205706756176336
BAKKEN5-2023311019410159102416484964035310
BAKKEN4-2023301084910845116657186071187123
BAKKEN3-20233110781107611166573424707892627
BAKKEN2-20232811727117801228953849503373507
BAKKEN1-2023311881618771185789529993570623
BAKKEN12-20222922699227524259282978796063362
BAKKEN11-2022191159811584887329032264861872
BAKKEN10-20223131323312312220986154788686139
BAKKEN9-20223030973310342076672227682672838
BAKKEN8-202231293842939311965889614343348
BAKKEN7-20223128026280402042159028551542822
BAKKEN6-20223029711297452315353600501732284
BAKKEN5-2022313583136287656965457609593180
BAKKEN4-20222424923244574263552046479143081
BAKKEN3-20223160643550101499121164

An Old Enerplus Softshell Well Trending Toward One Million Bbls Cumulative Oil -- Drilled Back In 2014 -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45608B.

This well is tracked elsewhere.

  • 27587, 2,188, Enerplus, Softshell 152-94-33C-28H TF, Antelope, Sanish, t11/14; cum 839K 4/21; incredibly good well with multiple bumps in production; off line 6/19; remains off line 8/19; back on line 7/10 but weird production; only reporting one day but production is obviously a full month; cum 900K 12/22; cum 916K 7/23; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-202331199720166304619437559
SANISH6-202330201320476354744452471
SANISH5-2023312095236911104909461685
SANISH4-20233025152649103155084677659
SANISH3-20233131443099157377537274333
SANISH2-20232424762535127656254829674
SANISH1-202320178015755814662454930
SANISH12-20223017461810106261385881172
SANISH11-20223028723028108044873439826

Could These Enerplus PNC Wells Yet Be Drilled? September 11, 2023

Locator: 45607B. 

These wells are tracked elsewhere.

Current 10-well pad:

  • 36987, drl/drl-->drl/TASC-->drl/A, Bass....25H, t--; cum 240K 7/23;
  • 36988, drl/drl-->drl/TASC-->F/A, Bluegill...25H-TF, t--; cum 200K 7/23;
  • 36989, drl/drl-->drl/TASC-->drl/A, Shad....25H, t--; cum 244K 7/23;
  • 36990, drl/drl-->loc/TASC-->F/A, Moray....25H-TF, t--; cum 207K 7/23;
  • 36991, drl/drl-->drl/TASC-->drl/IA, Minnow....25H, t--; cum 289K 7/23;
  • 21754, 654, Enerplus, Grouper 149-94-36D-25H, Squaw Creek, t7/12; cum 337K 2/22; off line;  back on line; cum 370K 7/23; halo effect -- short-lived;
  • 36992, PNC, Steelhead....25H-TF,
  • 36342, PNC, Gnu....10H-TF-LL,
  • 36343, PNC, Addax....10H-TF,
  • 36344, PNC, Camel....10H,
  • 36345, PNC, Genet....10H-TF, 850 FNL 826 FWL

Note the "PNC" wells above. The "map" suggests they may still be drilled.

Monday, Monday -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45606TECH.

Qualcomm: speaks volumes about shortage of chips. Link here. [Later: jumps 4% today.]

Dollar club: no longer. Prices have doubled. Now it's the two-dollar club.

I remember when Harry's Shave Club -- or whatever it was called -- sold high-end blades for $1, shipped free to one's house? It's been at least a year now or so that the blades have doubled in price to $2. I was reminded of that when I heard a Harry commercial still griping about the high cost of blades. So, fact check.

Tesla: now a Buy, up from Hold, over at Morgan Stanley. Link here.

Size matters: the iPhone Mini -- one of Apple's most popular phones may be discontinued. We will know tomorrow. Link here.

Before Apple, I had a Nokia flip phone -- which I really enjoyed. When I switched to an iPhone years ago, I looked for the smallest and always bought the smallest -- easier to keep in my pocket. But I recently bought the new iPhone SE, slightly bigger (?) and I love it. Interestingly, I am starting to find that I do prefer a bigger screen. I often take my large-screen iPad to sporting events because the camera / video is so much better. 

I don't think the mini will be missed.

Apple will see bigger margins on bigger phones.

Rumors: the new iPhone 15 will be $100 more expensive. Analysts will be upset but sales won't be hhurt by the higher price -- if nothing else, the higher price gives retailers like Walmart and Amazon an opportunity to sell them at a lower price, spurring sales.

Costco: link here. Note date of article. Probably not much change(d) over the years.

  • balsamic vinegar
  • olive oil
  • bacon
  • eggs
  • maple syrup
  • butter
  • saffron
  • quinoa
  • Virginia peanuts
  • peppercorn

Buc-ee's: just in time for Halloween.

Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Weekend -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45605B.

 Focus on Fracking: link here.

  • oil price hits 10 month high; 
  • US commercial oil supplies​ and gasoline supplies both at ​nine month low​s; 
  • total domestic oil supplies, including SPR, at a ​new 38 year low​

WTI: $87.02.

Monday, September 11, 2023: 77 for the month; 279 for the quarter, 524 for the year
None.

Sunday, September 10, 2023: 77 for the month; 279 for the quarter, 524 for the year
39673, conf, Hydra Services, SWD,
39030, conf, Liberty Resources, Temple 159-96-36-25-3MBH,

Saturday, September 9, 2023: 75 for the month; 277 for the quarter, 522 for the year
39067, conf, Hess, TI-Fossaa-158-94-1819H-2,
38901, conf, Whiting, Snowshoe Federal 31-30-2H,
38899, conf, Whiting, Snowshoe Federal 31-30-4H,
37927, conf, BR, Parrish 2C MBH,

RBN Energy: E&Ps assume debt to sustain shareholder return as cash flow falls.

What a difference a year makes! The summer of 2022 was a golden age for U.S. E&Ps that embraced a dramatic shift in their business model from prioritizing growth to a focus on maximizing cash flows and emphasizing shareholder returns. Oil prices over $90/bbl and gas prices hovering about $7/MMBtu filled their coffers and funded lavish increases in share repurchases and dividends. But those golden days quickly faded as oil prices retreated and gas prices plunged 66% to just above $2/MMBtu. In today’s RBN blog, we explain how E&Ps are scrambling to sustain shareholder return programs in the face of shrinking cash flow.