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Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Social Security COLA To Be Announced, Thursday, October 12, 2023, Mid-Morning (?)

Locator: 45730COLA.

Update

October 12, 2023: 3.2%. Inflation tamed.

Original Post

Hunch: 3.2%. Anything higher will be a pleasant surprise for seniors. Anything lower will be unexpected.

The date on which the Social Security Administration will announce the COLA increase 2024 is Thursday, October 12, 2023. 

As for what time exactly the COLA increase 2024 will be revealed, we know that September's price index is scheduled to be published at 08:30 ET on Thursday, October 12, 2023. 

This is the final dataset need to complete the COLA formulas, so the exact amount can be worked out shortly after that Thursday morning announcement.

Anticipation

A tame inflation report on Thursday would likely kill the prospect of an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting, despite signs of continued strength in the labor market.

Fed officials are watching the consumer-price index, and other data, as they mull whether another rate hike this year will be necessary to keep inflation declining.

  • Economists surveyed by The WSJ estimate consumer prices rose 0.3% in September from the prior month and 3.6% from a year earlier. That would represent cooling from the 0.6% monthly increase and the 3.7% 12-month rate in August, which was driven by higher energy prices. 
  • When excluding volatile food and energy items, those economists see so-called core prices also increasing 0.3% in September, the same as the prior month’s increase and a continuation of mild readings through the summer months. They estimate core prices rose 4.1% in September from a year earlier, down from the prior month’s 4.3%.

Water Flooding -- Unremarkable -- October 11, 2023

Locator: 45729EOR.  

From 2012, water flooding EOR begins.

Results? Look incredibly unexciting. May be why we're not hearing much about water flooding in the Bakken.

Going For The Jugular -- Egos Getting In The Way Of Serious Negotiations? October 11, 2023

Locator: 45728UAW.  

Going for broke. Link here.

This was completely out of the blue. 

No pun intended.

This speaks volumes:

Again, for those who have forgotten, Shawn Fain is asking for 40% wage increase for "legacy" workers, and 60% increase for new hires, as well as end of two-tier pay scheme.

One Of Many CLR Wells In This Area -- October 11, 2023

Locator: 45727B. 

CLR's Gale / Rodney wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 37407, conf-->loc/NC-->A, CLR, Gale 14-32HSL, Cedar Coulee, minimal production; a nice well; cum 300K 8/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023319025903668742647225710374
BAKKEN7-20233110460105217666262682584251
BAKKEN6-2023301169911685100152751626986159
BAKKEN5-2023311235612333116502606925474184
BAKKEN4-20233015094150781226127391270167
BAKKEN3-2023271551715649124352735226873148
BAKKEN2-2023282138721282184053316832457314
BAKKEN1-2023141379813646127772112120646290
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-20220090000
BAKKEN9-202251006101113441718166319
BAKKEN8-202231017112012261855179723
BAKKEN7-2022311547715432180982588025291136
BAKKEN6-2022211140511467123711499814437245
BAKKEN5-2022312383123920155362771526877430
BAKKEN4-2022302399123945164543280332166511
BAKKEN3-2022313768837682238625107450009371
BAKKEN2-2022283631536288220454632846029184
BAKKEN1-2022313325233135237283843737663652
BAKKEN12-2021557455718420266616495145
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-2021384584526993610361
BAKKEN8-202110017000

It all started with this parent well, now 15 years old:

  • 17211, 240, CLR, Gale 1-32H, Cedar Coulee, t8/08; cum 211K 8/23;
BAKKEN2-2023282734273842254858481147
BAKKEN1-2023313376338654536092600785
BAKKEN12-2022313527349650281774174628
BAKKEN11-2022151706173726912680261763
BAKKEN10-2022253131311551044414401
BAKKEN9-2022303424342366144524493
BAKKEN8-2022222232223364704332427755
BAKKEN7-2022314089407567306215618233
BAKKEN6-2022212627262546344135406669
BAKKEN5-2022182714274042882026199531
BAKKEN4-2022304406438374782638259741
BAKKEN3-2022243902388472185664562242
BAKKEN2-202200220000
BAKKEN1-20221750595043135965443535093
BAKKEN12-202141203119730661272124428
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20211291241100
BAKKEN6-202119702000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20202874612942909580587
BAKKEN6-202022603243019
BAKKEN5-2020172630904360206
BAKKEN4-2020284762401427330371
BAKKEN3-20203152275316780430356
BAKKEN2-2020294815501377373470
BAKKEN1-2020315205711687433240
BAKKEN12-2019315082991337613420
BAKKEN11-2019305015631577613560
BAKKEN10-2019315135541777413148
BAKKEN9-2019304935461457593570
BAKKEN8-2019315042981429064870

The maps:





Shale 3.0 -- Dan Pickering -- XOM-PXD -- Active Rigs In North Dakota Jump To 38 -- October 11, 2023

Locator: 45726B. 

Later, 7:34 p.m., October 11, 2023: I saw the same thing -- very strange -- 

October 11, 2023: Dan Pickering --

************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 38.

WTI: $83.49.

Two new permits, #40248 - #40249, inclusive:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill, Hess
  • Field: Cow Creek (Williams); Oliver (Oliver)
  • Comments:
    • Grayson Mill has a Tufto permit, NENW 18-15-100, 
      • to be sited 386 FNL aand 1961 FWL
    • Hess has a GO-Olson-157-98-2536H-2, NWNW 25-157-98; 
      • to be sited 741 NFFL and 666 FWL

Four permits renewed:

  • Grayson Mill: four Marilyn permits, Williams County, Painted Woods;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37613, 0, BR, Pullman 3A MBH-ULW,
  • 37880, 252, BR, Rink 2-1-5UTFH,
  • 39176, 1,029, CLR, Clyde Hauge 5-13H,
  • 39178, 1,029, CLR, Clyde Hauge 6-13H,

Wells of interest:

Clearing Off The Desk -- Again -- October 11, 2023

Locator: 45724BOOKS. 

As noted earlier, I am reading Linda Porter's 1995 biography of Mary 1, the first queen of England. I'm about halfway through the book; Henry VIII had just died leaving a widow queen, Katherine Parr, and at least three who could claim rights to the throne: Henry's third child, and first son; his first daughter, Mary, and, his second daughter. 

At the time of Henry's death, Edward was nine years old and older men would rule for him until he reached majority. He died at the age of sixteen. Mary, about 31 years old was old enough to be Edward's mother and in many respects she was. He had never know his own mother, Jane Seymour, who died shortly after he was born. The third stepchild, was Elizabeth, about 13 years old, and very closer in age to her younger brother. 

And, then the intrigue begins.

Break, break.

This intrigue about the rights to the throne after Henry VIII dies is incredibly interesting, and I am reading the story at exactly the same time that it's being reported that Exxon will buy Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion. With the agreement, comes a $20-billion termination fee. I don't know how these things play out, but if Elizabeth Warren is able to influence the regulators to quash the deal, I assume there is no termination fee, unless, of course, the regulators allow the deal with some caveats that Exxon may not be willing to accept. 

As noted, I have no idea of how this works. And, I'm sure if it goes to court anything can happen.

Meanwhile, there are rumors that OXY is now interested and willing to pay $75 billion. Again, just rumors. 

Some say they've seen OXY's jet winging its way to Omaha, NE. 

Meanwhile, XOM's stock has fallen significantly in value today.

So, just as the throne of England was up for grabs after Henry VIII died, so it seems the Permian assets of Pioneer Natural Resources are also up for grabs.

This is just rambling comments by someone who knows not how these things work. Take it all with a grain of salt.

*****************************
API 

Pending. Amazing how really poor "google" is for real-time results, but that's another story. Twitter is so much better.

***************************
State Rule

From Bloomberg law today:

Clearing Off The Desk -- Again -- October 11, 2023

As noted earlier, I am reading Linda Porter's 1995 biography of Mary 1, the first queen of England. I'm about halfway through the book; Henry VIII had just died leaving a widow queen, Katherine Parr, and at least three who could claim rights to the throne: Henry's third child, and first son; his first daughter, Mary, and, his second daughter. 

At the time of Henry's death, Edward was nine years old and older men would rule for him until he reached majority. He died at the age of sixteen. Mary, about 31 years old was old enough to be Edward's mother and in many respects she was. He had never know his own mother, Jane Seymour, who died shortly after he was born. The third stepchild, was Elizabeth, about 13 years old, and very closer in age to her younger brother. 

And, then the intrigue begins.

Break, break.

This intrigue about the rights to the throne after Henry VIII dies is incredibly interesting, and I am reading the story at exactly the same time that it's being reported that Exxon will buy Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion. With the agreement, comes a $20-billion termination fee. I don't know how these things play out, but if Elizabeth Warren is able to influence the regulators to quash the deal, I assume there is no termination fee, unless, of course, the regulators allow the deal with some caveats that Exxon may not be willing to accept. 

As noted, I have no idea of how this works. And, I'm sure if it goes to court anything can happen.

Meanwhile, there are rumors that OXY is now interested and willing to pay $75 billion. Again, just rumors. 

Some say they've seen OXY's jet winging its way to Omaha, NE. 

Meanwhile, XOM's stock has fallen significantly in value today.

So, just as the throne of England was up for grabs after Henry VIII died, so it seems the Permian assets of Pioneer Natural Resources are also up for grabs.

This is just rambling comments by someone who knows not how these things work. Take it all with a grain of salt.

*****************************
API 

Pending. Amazing how really poor "google" is for real-time results, but that's another story. Twitter is so much better.

***************************
State Rule

From Bloomberg law today:

*************************
Synonyms

Raze.

Gaza.

Hamas.

The question: which way do the Gaza refugees flee?

I know about the geopolitics in this area but looking at the map, they have but one choice.

The big question: why now? Why did Hamas attack now. Not two months ago; not six months ago; not a year from now? Al Jezeera provides three reasons, two of which are nothing new. The third reason: normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia were but a weekend away. 

Al-Jezeera notes that it appears that Hamas has no end-games, and from the perspective of some, Hamas by showing atrocities on television has overplayed its hand.

Note: it goes without saying that US politics is such that President Biden has but one choice.

Al-Jezeera also notes that Hezbollah has not opened a second front. Hezbollah has shown a little response but this is mostly for show and the Israelis have now had time to prepare for a second front.

EV Manufacturers Raising Cash And Their Investors' Response -- October 11, 2023

Polestar:

  • wants to raise money;
  • stock is falling.
  • link here.


From the linked article: 

A potential capital raise from Swedish electric-vehicle maker Polestar Automotive has its American depositary receipts sliding. That says more about Polestar investors than about the company.

Polestar (ticker: PSNY) showed its intention to raise $1 billion. That isn’t a shock. Still, the hint of new capital is pushing down shares sharply.

Tuesday evening, Polestar filed a “shelf” registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission. There are no immediate plans to sell shares or raise debt. A shelf registration gives the company the option to sell securities by registering them ahead of time. A company has securities “on the shelf” ready to sell when the time is right. It isn’t a great name.

The filing isn’t unusual. The stock reaction shows how skittish investors have become over EV start-ups’ need to raise additional money.

Rivian stock dropped about 23% on Oct. 5 after announcing plans to sell $1.5 billion in convertible notes. Everyone knows or should know, that Rivian will need more capital to build its business. Wall Street doesn’t project positive cash flow for most of this decade. Still, investors and Wall Street reacted harshly with reasons given ranging from the timing was poor to the raise was a surprise.

Clearing Off The Desktop -- October 11, 2023

AAPL:
Polestar:
  • wants to raise money;
  • stock is falling.
  • link here.
Next Fed decision? Anyone's bet. My hunch: pause.
Germany
  • imploding: Peter Zeihan.
  • trading partners: Russia and China
  • skilled labor aging out
  • energy: stuck with lignite.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- October 11, 2023

Locator: 45721B.

Note: I assume the weekly EIA report will be delayed a day.

WTI: $85.14.

Friday, October 13, 2023: 29 for the month; 29 for the quarter, 599 for the year
39430, conf, Petro-Hunt, D Annunzio 148-102-6B-7-1H
39333, conf, CLR, Hegler 6-13H,
38274, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-4,

Thursday, October 12, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 596 for the year
None.

Wednesday, October 11, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 596 for the year
39453, conf, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 3-2H,
39334, conf, CLR, Hegler 7-13H1,
38834, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-344-2H,

RBN Energy: strong crude oil prices driving robust Canadian M&A activity. 

Merger-and-acquisition (M&A) activity in Canada’s oil and gas sector has accelerated this year compared to 2022. With crude oil prices generally strengthening over the course of 2023, it should come as no surprise that the focus of much of this activity has been crude oil- and NGL-producing companies and assets. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, several large deals have been announced and many have already closed, including a complex arrangement involving Suncor and production ownership in the oil sands that only recently concluded after six months of uncertainty, with more deals expected before the year is over.

The ebb and flow of corporate wheeling and dealing is just as familiar in the Canadian oil and gas sector as it is the U.S. When times are tough, the exploration and production companies (E&Ps) that squirreled away money and remain financially comfortable can swoop in and purchase assets or entire companies that are in trouble, adding to their production base to (presumably) generate greater value from those assets in the future.

When times are good — such as in 2023, when crude oil prices have been strong and mostly rising — cash is more plentiful for all companies and M&A fever can really take off. Acquiring E&Ps look to expand their production base with quality assets, while sellers may be shifting gears, looking to consolidate their production around a certain geographic focus, or simply selling to get a financial lifeline to pay down that pending bank loan. Whatever the driving force might be, M&A activity in Canada’s oil and gas sector has been on the upswing.