Back To That Geography Lesson -- January 6, 2023

Updates

January 12, 2023: COP.  

Original Post 

The other day I posted a "geography lesson." 

I wanted to understand the geographical relationship of /among Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Surinam, and Venezuela. 

What piqued my interest? Chevron and Venezuela.

Before we go too far down this road, even under the best of circumstances for Chevron and its prospects in Venezuela, it's likely to take decades -- decades -- for this to become a "thing." But for companies like XOM, Chevron, and Shell, decades is the "norm." One thing going for Chevron is the fact that they know the oil is there.

So, what is the potential for Venezuelan oil and the US? 

Start here: US crude oil imports, EIA data. Scroll down and click on Venezuela.

First, look at the amount of oil the US imports from Venezuela:

Pretty stark. Graphically:

So, this is what we have:

• Trinidad and Tobago: Shell.
• Surinam: Apache and TTE.
• Guyana: XOM.
• Venezuela: CVX.

Can you imagine CVX looking at going from zero to fifty million bbls of crude oil each month?

On a completely different note, as much as Biden hates (loathes) Big Oil, one needs to ask what possessed him to grant a license to CVX to import Venezuelan oil into the US? The official answer: humanitarian.

I doubt it. Biden is the consummate politician -- what does granting a license get Biden politically? Nada. 

My hunch: he's reading the same tea leaves being read by Pierree Andurand. And, Andurand is also being quoted by Bloomberg: $140 oil as soon as the end of this year.

I'm hearing from one reader who tells me farmers are locking in their contracts now for fall fuel -- for harvesting and drying.