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Thursday, February 16, 2023

One New Permit; Nine DUCs Reported As Completed; Two Wells Showing Halo Effect -- February 16, 2023

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $75.80.

Natural gas: $2.348.

One new permit, #39665:

  • Operator: WPX Energy
  • Field: McGregory Buttes (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • WPX has a permit for a Cumulus well, SWSE 33-148-93; McGregory Buttes
      • to be sited 682 FSL and 2560 FEL;

Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed 

  • 29781, 0, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 1TFH, Stockyard Creek, no production data,
  • 29782, 0, Zavanna, Galloway 18-20 2H, Stockyard Creek, 12K over 12 days; 
  • 29783, 0, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 3TFH, Stockyard Creek, no production data,
  • 29784, 0, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 4H, Stockyard Creek, 24K over 18 days

Well of interest near the Gallowell:

  • 22044, 700, Zavanna, George 19-20 1H, Stockyard Creek, t10/12; cum 591K 12/22;
BAKKEN1-20203175837406835630550120082065
BAKKEN12-2019311126210159127843638217570403
BAKKEN11-201930123611235213368332791809335
BAKKEN10-2019311116011196133403048515585892
BAKKEN9-20193013606130791792730935155231606
BAKKEN8-20193113117124582314629601138442627
BAKKEN7-2019311049396042718419742117881416
BAKKEN6-2019306884637134181845063181685
BAKKEN5-20190000477450
BAKKEN4-201981638744411421736
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000391239120
BAKKEN6-20182518922107158020411481187
BAKKEN5-2018313352320822834409391235
BAKKEN4-2018302874282623103606313326
BAKKEN3-20183129023126248934572870125
BAKKEN2-20182827152608238332522403432
BAKKEN1-20183131323150229436292955212

Other DUCcs reported today as completed:

  • 38709, 1,720, MRO, Comstock 14-8TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 105K 12/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2022311807618079170951607915066675
BAKKEN11-2022292005520039202611690715717781
BAKKEN10-20223125522255313641915896143371253
BAKKEN9-20223025164251024518715609153637
BAKKEN8-2022301626316044480701294012561146
  • 38710, 4,534, MRO, Yockim 14-8H, Bailey, t--; cum 172K 12/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2022312410424090139812025918965850
BAKKEN11-2022282550625500157742032118870937
BAKKEN10-20223133729337712566421700195801712
BAKKEN9-202230359953618129870301552968014
BAKKEN8-2022254361943548502033046029568343
BAKKEN7-20223884683291030754954660482
  • 38572, 2,468, MRO, Ithmar 41-13TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 131K 12/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2022309892987212532118921133953
BAKKEN11-202228954794841345111568100221111
BAKKEN10-20223112557125341871119009162912216
BAKKEN9-20223015274152262414519024187360
BAKKEN8-202230202122014629923189711863622
BAKKEN7-20222315626156803070613175129390
BAKKEN6-2022302213822059502351672416008386
BAKKEN5-202213960098122432278256979140
BAKKEN4-2022141614015873382841235310856310
  • 38573, 3,740, MRO, Austin 11-18H, Bailey, t--; cum 3K over 13 days:
  • 38574, 2,870, MRO, Beau 11-18TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 144K 12/22:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2022133113324050793266310214
BAKKEN11-202228752975071061211993104571160
BAKKEN10-20223111507115251612015343131171784
BAKKEN9-20223017060169782317521362210380
BAKKEN8-202230187241871725435197841942533
BAKKEN7-20223025148251953752820404200390
BAKKEN6-2022302885828864479082182720901495
BAKKEN5-2022293144631281546272358121100263
BAKKEN4-20222298596923116095280

Population Talk -- February 16, 2023

From MSN:
The California exodus has shown no sign of slowing down as the state's population dropped by more than 500,000 people between April 2020 and July 2022, with the number of residents leaving surpassing those moving in by nearly 700,000.

The population decrease was second only to New York, which lost about 15,000 more people than California, census data show.

California gained about 157,000 more people from natural change — the difference in number between births and deaths — than New York did, making New York's total population loss greater. 

Hold that thought.

From the LA Times today:


Statistics: as usual, no denominator. For the record:

  • population, California: 40 million
  • over two years, April 2020 -- July 2022, population drops 500,000
  • percentage change: - 500 / 4,000 = - 1.25% over more than two years
  • predominantly affect the big cities (Los Angeles?)

Southern surge:

  • historically, "runs" around 50,000"encounters" on a monthly basis;
  • this past year, trending toward 250,000 "encounters" on a monthly basis;
  • conservatively speaking; once "Covid-19 emergency order" lifted on May 11, 2023, it is estimated the numbers at the southern border will trend toward 300,000 / month = 3.6 million per year

Hold that thought.

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Peter Zeihan On Global Population Decrease

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British Royalty 

What are the odds? LOL. 

While in Portland, OR, last week I picked up a memoir/biography of the "real" Downton Abbey by the Countess of Carnarvon, c. 2011.

I learned a lot about how a modern castle is run. 

Well, of all things, in the current issue of The New Yorker, another what-appears-to-be-a-very-similar memoir, this time a book review by Rebecca Mead, "The Merry Widow." 

The book is Lady in Waiting, Anne GGlenconner, c. 2019. A follow-on book Whatever Next is due out this month, February 2023. 

At ninety years of age, Lady Anne / Lady Glenconner is the oldest living aristocratic widow in the world. 

 In 2019, Lady Anne—Anne Glenconner, as she is known today—published a memoir, Lady in Waiting, that detailed not only her childhood at Holkham Hall but also her decades as a friend and companion to Princess Margaret, the younger sister of Queen Elizabeth II. 

Lady in Waiting, which became a surprise best-seller in the U.K. and has been translated into eleven languages, describes the peculiar privileges and rituals of England’s landed aristocracy from the perspective of a wry insider. It gives an unusually candid depiction of life in the upper echelon of British society at a time when the centuries-old peerage has been partly superseded by newer aristocracies—those of global celebrity and freshly generated wealth.

 I've just begun the six-page essay which already sounds very much like the memoir by thee Countess of Carnarvon. What are the odds that less than a week after picking up a memoir of "Downton Abbey," I come across a similar book reviewed in the current issue of The New Yorker? What a hoot. 

If healthy enough and strong enough, perhaps Lady Glenconner will be at the coronation in May.

Director's Cut -- December, 2022

Link here.

Director's Cuts are tracked here.

November, 2022, data posted

Record.

Wells offline for operational purposes tracked here

From novilabs, link here

Crude oil production in round numbers:

  • North Dakota: 1 million bopd
  • New Mexico: 1.5 million bopd

Gas capture, statewide: 94%.

Offline:

December, 2022:

  • completed: 104 (preliminary)
  • inactive: 2,613 (an increase of 15%)
  • DUCS: 450 (a less-than- 1% decrease)
  • total off line for operational reasons: 3,063 (a 13% increase)
  • producing:17,230 (a decrease of 2%)

November, 2022:

  • completed: 58 (preliminary)
  • inactive: 2,271 (a decrease of 20%)
  • DUCS: 447 (a 9% decrease)
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,718 (a 14% increase)
  • producing:17,580

Algae (As In Renewable Energy) And M.C.C. -- February 16, 2023

Wow, I'm in a great mood. 

I'm way behind, and I may not get to all these stories but I plan on talking about algae (as in renewable energy) and M.C.C. later today.

At one time "algae" was such a big deal, I actually tagged blogs in which I discussed "algae."It's been a long time, but "algae" is back in the news. LOL. 

What has really got me excited was the 16-page essay on Austin, Texas, in the most recent issue of  The New Yorker. Even by TNY standards, this is a very, very, very long essay, and it's about Texas. In a positive light. It's not a story one would expect in TNY.

It would be nice if all readers could see it but it's behind a paywall. If I were a college professor in urban studies, this one article could easily serve as a one-hour credit course. One could spend a full semester on everything mentioned in the article.

I had never heard of the M.C.C. but wiki provides a summary. It's an absolutely amazing success story, a Reagan initiative. Of the sixteen pages, the author devotes a full page to the M.C.C.

I'll come back to the M.C.C. later perhaps, but the wiki entry pretty much covers it as much as TNY article does. For me, this one article on Austin was worth the annual subscription price, about $14 / month.

The link to TNY Austin article: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/02/13/the-astonishing-transformation-of-austin

Another excerpt:

Austin is the fastest-growing major metro area in America, having expanded by a third in the past ten years. It is already the eleventh-largest city.
New jobs mop up newcomers as fast as they arrive. Every day, the metro area adds three hundred and fifty-five new residents, while two hundred and thirty-eight Austinites depart, many of them squeezed out by high rents and property taxes, or by the disaffection so many of us feel because of the pace of change and the loss of qualities that once defined the city.
Austin is now characterized by stifling traffic and unaffordable restaurants. It was never known as a home for billionaires and celebrities, but in the past few years notable refugees from Silicon Valley, Hollywood, and New York have stampeded into town, with different expectations about what Austin should become—and outsized power to shape the city around their desires. Locals point disdainfully to the Hermès shop and the Soho House on South Congress, formerly the funkiest street in town. Evan Smith, a founder of the Texas Tribune, told me, “Austin now has an upper class.”

Elon Musk is just one of the recent billionaire arrivals hanging around Austin. There were two or three until not long ago; now I hear there are fourteen. Imagine you invite the new neighbors to a pool party and they turn out to be elephants. When they jump in, it changes things.

Of course, such complaints are signposts of a booming economy—the kinds of problems many people elsewhere would love to have. In any city whose identity is changing, it can be hard to avoid the sense that a golden age has slipped away. Newcomers to Austin fall prey to this nostalgia almost instantly—and, with a longtime resident like me, the symptoms can become comically acute. But the feeling is more like watching someone you love become someone you didn’t expect. It doesn’t mean that you’re not still in love—just that complexity has entered the relationship. Austin forty years ago was like a graduate student with modest tastes and few resources; now she’s sporting jewels and flying first class. She’s sophisticated, well travelled, and well connected, and those aren’t necessarily bad things—they’re just disorienting. Nostalgia is a way of remembering when things were simpler; it also makes us forget that simple things can be boring and frustrating. Instead of running on the fumes of memory, I decided to reacquaint myself with the actual Austin I’m living in—a city rapidly transforming into America’s next great metropolis.

Austin’s future was determined in January, 1983, when Admiral Bob Inman, recently retired from the Navy and from serving as the deputy director of the C.I.A., was selected to head a novel consortium called the Microelectronics and Computer Consortium.
Japan dominated the semiconductor-manufacturing industry at the time and had announced an ambitious effort to create computers capable of generating artificial intelligence. The Reagan Administration saw this as a serious threat, and M.C.C. was the response. Twenty of America’s foremost high-tech companies—among them Microsoft, Boeing, G.E., and Lockheed—would share resources to secure America’s hold on the future. The first decision was where to locate this new entity.

I feel strongly that two of the largest bills signed by President Biden last year could have the same effect for no less than half a dozen cities in the US and a dozen exiting companies and who knows how many new companies. 

I was energized by what I saw in Portland, Oregon, last week, and I even think California has the potential to surprise "us" in a very, very positive way.

Annual Angus Bull Sales -- Schaff -- February, 2023

This was done quickly; there may be typographical and content errors. If this is important to you go to the source. Note: Schaff and Ellingson are two different ranchers, both in St Anthony?

Schaff -- 2023:

Link here.

Final "individual lot results" are now posted Ellingson and Schaff:

  • Schaff, high-selling bull: $250,000; to a buyer in Florida
  • Ellingson, high-selling bull: $110,000; to a buyer in Montana

See this post, 2021

And the results for 2022 at this post

For 2023, Schaff: registered bulls, average: $15,772 (2023) vs $14,815 last year (2022).

From 2022:

  • Schaff, St Anthony, ND: yet to report; sale yesterday;
    • last year's record, Schaff: $275,000
    • $14,815: average for bulls.
  • Ellingson Angus, St Anthony, ND, this year:
    • looks like the one to beat
    • registered bulls, average: $12,407
    • top bull: $175,000



One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- February 16, 2023

PPI: numbers look bad. Dow futures down.

Liesman: first look — energy prices up but really hard to explain this “bad” number. Liesman trying to suggest things aren’t that bad but suggests it’s now very slightly more likely 50 basis points next Fed rate increase. 

Me: These numbers will be forgotten by noon but right now, now good. 

Paramount: earnings miss; shares plunge;

  • revenue: $8.13 billion vs $8.17 forecast
  • EPS: holy mackerel -- 8 cents vs 24 cents forecast
  • subscribers, net additions: 9.9 million vs 10 million
  • PARA: one of only three companies that BRK increased holdings most recent quarter;
  • pre-market: PARA down 7%
  • 52-week high: around $38
  • pre-market: around $23
  • I have no idea what Warren Buffett was thinking.
  • Streaminglink hereStreaming wars. PARA not even mentioned.
  • The Hollywood Reporter.

LPX: up slightly

AAPL: down slightly. Pays dividend today.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

Peter Zeihan newsletter

WTI: $78.68.

Natural gas: $2.542.

Friday, February 17, 2023: 43, for the month; 114 for the quarter, 114 for the year
39005, conf, CLR, Rhonda 3-28H,
38426, conf, Hess, HA-Dahl-152-95-0706H-9,

Thursday, February 16, 2023
: 42 for the month; 112 for the quarter, 112 for the year
38883, conf, WPX, Palo Pinnto 20-17-8HY,

RBN Energy: the crude oil pipelines to Corpus Christi are filling up. What happens then?

It’s been an awesome run for the Port of Corpus Christi’s crude oil export business, which captured about 60% of total U.S. volumes in 2022, up from only 28% in early 2018. But the rate of increase has slowed way down, even though shipping economics give Corpus a distinct advantage. The problem? Pipeline capacity, or more accurately, a lack thereof. The pipelines from the Permian to Corpus that were the driving force behind the Corpus export success story are filling up. The only questions are, how much time is left before the pipes are truly maxed out and what is likely to be done about it? In today’s RBN blog, we examine the data to see what it reveals about the looming capacity constraints.