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Wednesday, July 1, 2020

A Closer Look At the Kraken Double Eagle Wells In Sanish Oil Field -- July 1, 2020

Note: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

Is anyone interested in the Kraken Double Eagle wells that came off confidential list today? There are three Double Eagle wells on the pad; two came off the confidential list today; the third was released earlier.
  • 36787, drl/A, Kraken, Double Eagle 33-3-3TFH, Sanish, t--; cum 88K after four months;
  • 36786, drl/A, Kraken Double Eagle 33-3 2H, Sanish, t--; cum 146K after four months; 48K month;
First, where are they? See this post. This is where these wells will be tracked.

Production:
  • 36787, drl/A, Kraken, Double Eagle 33-3-3TFH, API: 33-061-04544; Sanish, t--; cum 88K after four months; fracked 11/27/2019 - 12/14/2019; 13.76 million gallons of water; 82% water by mass; friction reducer: 0. 0539;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202030146971475629178000
BAKKEN4-2020301913019158365701721880128865
BAKKEN3-20203123934240675222523934209521467
BAKKEN2-2020292640526380649503153672430435
BAKKEN1-20202418402177644901219783413515299
BAKKEN12-2019355010154923
  • 36786, drl/A, Kraken Double Eagle 33-3 2H, API: 33-061-04543; Sanish, t--; cum 146K after four months; 48K month; fracked 11/27/2019 - 12/14/2019; 11.53 million gallons of water; 82% water by mass; friction reducer: 0. 0506;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202031208032087321755000
BAKKEN4-20203026231258772687324920164228153
BAKKEN3-20203138993392914196538994392434698
BAKKEN2-20202948418482275889559849133058142
BAKKEN1-20202831889315824828533998861924976
BAKKEN12-201932530105524731172
  • 36785, drl/A, Kraken, Double Eagle 33-3 1H, 33-061-04542, Sanish, t--; cum 113K 4/20; fracked 11/27/2019 - 12/12/2019; 9.4 million gallons of water; 83.9% water by mass; friction reducer: 0.04685;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202031140341381715285000
BAKKEN4-20203017497174581788715748120683335
BAKKEN3-20203127160274942892527160290523883
BAKKEN2-2020262966029536353663696940636227
BAKKEN1-20202924717244984116525800575719628
BAKKEN12-20193318068842035422

From the file reports.

36786:
  • second of three wells to be drilled on this pad (sic)
  • spud: 9/17/2019
  • TD: 11/1/2019
  • total depth: 21,448'
  • a toe-up, three-string, double section lateral
  • target: middle Bakken
  • target zone: 10' thick between 22' and 32" below the top of the middle Bakken;
  • big rig: began at 0714 hours, October 17, 2019, at 8,300' MD
  • KOP: began at 9,760'; begun at 0712 hours, October 28, 2019
  • middle Bakken
    • encountered at 10,345'MD; landing depth reached at 1442 hours, October 28, 2019 (wow)
  • lateral:
    • began at 1952 CT, OCtober 29, 2019
    • without incident, drilling continued to TD of 21,448' MD; reached at 1704 hours, November 1, 2019;
  • gas shows: 1956 units at 10405' in the middle Bakken
  • lateral in the target zone (see above)
36787:
  • second of three wells to be drilled on this pad (sic)
  • spud: 9/18/2019
  • TD: 11/12/2019
  • total depth: 22,645'
  • a toe-up, three-string, double section lateral
  • target: Three Forks
  • target zone: 10' thick between 20' and 3" below the top of the Three Forks;
  • big rig: began 0817 hours, November 5, 2019, at 8,300' MD
  • KOP: began at 0245 hours, November 6, 2019
    • encountered the Three forks at 10,459' MD at 1241 hours, November 6, 2019
  • lateral: began at 2252 hours CT November 7, 2019
    • drilling continued to a depth of 15,741' MD reached at 0851 hours CT, November 9, 2019;
    • BHA tripped; changes; drilling resumed that day; 
    • drilling until 19.204' MD, then tripped again;
    • finally reached 22,645' MD at 1940 hours on November 12, 2019 (wow)
  • TD reached about 1.04' below the top of the target zone (wow)
  • gas units as high as 1372 units at 10435' MD in the vertical and the curve, in the lower Bakken;
  • gas shows: gas units as high as 1913 unit at 19276' MD
36875:
  • second of three wells to be drilled on this pad (sic)
  • spud: 9/16/2019
  • TD: 10/23/2019
  • TD: 19,955' MD
  • a toe-up, three-string, double section lateral
  • target: middle Bakken
  • target zone: 10' thick between 20' and 30" below the top of the middle Bakken;
  • drilling similar to above
  • KOP, building the curve, landing: required two BHAs; 12 hours;
  • lateral: look at this, if no typos --
    • began 0704 hours, October 21, 2019
    • reached TD of 19,955' at 0614 hours on October 23, 2019
    • one hour short of two full days!!! -- I'll tag this post with "records"
  • gas units: a high of 2491 units at 18157' MD
  • geosteering: 10' target located between 22' and 25' (sic) below the top of the middle Bakken

Notes From All Over -- The Midnight Edition -- July 1, 2020

US crude oil, days of supply: link here. The supply continues to shrink, at least measured in number of days. We're now down to 38.8 days. LOL. Divide by seven days, about six weeks of supply. Two weeks of supply is cutting it close; one doesn't want to see that. About perfect is three weeks, or 21 days. Anything over four weeks (28 days) is "ludicrous," as Elon Musk would say. So, yes, six weeks of supply is ludicrous.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Taking a page out of Apple's marketing strategy:


Talk about a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. A few days ago, Apple (AAPL) would have also been in the headline:


The "thing" that will drive this recovery, or keep it going: professional sports. The faster professional sports gets back to televising live events (with or without fans, it doesn't matter), the faster Americans will get the feeling that things are getting better. So much of this is perception.

Déjà vu all over again. Didn't we just see this exact same thing a few months ago? I remember blogging about it, using this as an example why I do not use iCloud.

Gasoline Demand -- Commentary -- July 1, 2020

From the very beginning of the blog, more than ten years ago, I have been consistent with at least one data point: I have always maintained that if I were allowed to choose only one metric to gauge the American economy -- where it's been, how it’s doing, where it seems to be headed, etc., -- that one metric would be gasoline demand. At least one reader said "diesel" would be a better indicator. Be that as it may: I feel very strongly that if allowed only one metric for the subject at hand, it would be gasoline demand.

Before I go on, look at gasoline demand posted today. Be sure to read the comments. Link here.


It certainly looks like a decent recovery.

But several big states are now seeing a new surge in corona virus cases ... and that could change everything.

It's literally a week-by-week gut check.

Ying and yang.

Push and pull.

Push and push back.

The politicians -- the governors -- will be pushed to "react" to the surge in corona cases.

But the American public is tired of the lock down. And frankly, the percentage of those Americans that won't survive economically increases each week this goes on.

My hunch: the American public will accept almost anything short of another lock down. Social distancing and masks? That's fine. But outright shutting down things again is going to be a very, very hard sell.

Back to gasoline demand.

One would think that the rate of growth in demand (the slope of the line) will now start to slow down a bit.

If the rate of growth actually increases going forward -- a steeper slope, it will speak volumes about the resiliency of the American economy.

If the rate of growth slows appreciably for more than a few weeks, that's going to be very, very concerning.

So, we'll see.

On another note, there is a real, real disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.

No New Permits; WTI Remains Below $40 -- July 1, 2020

OPEC:
  • production falls to three-decade low
  • OPEC basket: still under $40, at $38.22
*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$39.827/1/202007/01/201907/01/201807/01/201707/01/2016
Active Rigs1160675830

No new permits. No reports other than the previously reported wells that came off the confidential list today.

Meridian Refinergy Near Dickinson Gets Okay From ND Supreme Court -- July 1, 2020

Link here.
The North Dakota Supreme Court has sided with state regulators in a challenge to a proposed oil refinery near Theodore Roosevelt National Park in the western part of the state.
In a unanimous opinion, the state’s high court upheld a lower court ruling that affirmed permitting decisions by the Department of Environmental Quality.
The Bismarck Tribune reported Tuesday that the state Supreme Court ruled that the department “did not act arbitrarily, capriciously, or unreasonably in issuing the permit.”
William Prentice, the CEO of Meridian Energy Group, called the ruling “very welcome.” 
In case you missed it, the ruling was unanimous.


********************************
Gasoline Demand

Link here.

Notes From All Over -- The "Surprise" Edition -- July 1, 2020

Surprise, surprise: market volatility.
  • futures down
  • market opening jumps over a hundred points
  • now late-morning, Dow down 60 points
  • headline: ADP data disappoints
  • hunch: this will be forgotten by 2:00 p.m. EDT this later today
    • AAPL: still holding on -- up about half a percent
    • TSLA: up 4.4%; up almost $50; apparently sets "new record"; market value surges past Toyota; 
Later, 10:58 a.m. CDT: market turns green -- Pfizer sparks "vaccine hopes." LOL.
On another note, that poll at the sidebar on the right -- which pharmaceutical company would get the government nod -- appears to be a bust. It was posted about three weeks ago when there were reports that the federal government would pick one of five leading pharmaceutical companies to take on the US corona virus vaccine program -- but to date, nothing. So the poll comes down. I've lost interest.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Taxes: no more delays. IRS says "tax filing deadline" won't be extended past July 15, 2020.

TCM: "Government Girl." Wouldn't have posted a note about this show, but it appears Ed Norton channeled Sonny Tufts when Ed Norton spoke about "love" in "Birdman." Amazing. 
The "government girl": Olivia de Havilland. This clip from "Birdman":



*******************************
EIA Weekly Petroleum Report

Almost forget, EIA weekly data out today.

Link here:
  • US crude oil in storage: 535.5 million bbls; a whopping 15% above an already-fat level of storage; down from 16% last week;
  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a whopping (there's that word again) 7.2 million bbls from the previous week;
  • refineries operating at 75.5% capacity; pretty much unchanged;
  • jet fuel supplied was down 60.0% compared with same four-week period last year; again, pretty much unchanged
  • US crude oil imports, at 6.0 million bpd, the four-week average of 6.5 million bpd
  • WTI; immediate reading -- pretty much unchanged
Re-balancing:
Week
Date of Report=
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Above/Below 5-Year Average
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9

Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5

Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2

Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0

Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5

Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4

Week 71
April 8, 2020
15.2
484.4

Week 72
April 15, 2020
19.2
503.6

Week 72
April 22, 2020
15.0
518.6

Week 73
April 29, 2020
9.0
527.6

Week 74
May 6, 2020
4.6
532.2

Week 75
May 13, 2020
-0.7
531.5

Week 76
May 20, 2020
-5.0
526.5

Week 77
May 28, 2020
7.9
534.4

Week 78
June 3, 2020
-2.1
532.3

Week 79
June 10, 2020
5.7
538.1

Week 80
June 17, 2020
1.2
539.3
15%
Week 81
June 24, 2020
1.4
540.7
16%
Week 82
July 1, 2020
-7.2
533.5
15%

Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Date of Report
Change
Week 0
3/7/2020
-12.80%
Week 1
3/14/2020
-12.60%
Week 2
3/21/2020
-8.90%
Week 3
3/28/2020
-16.40%
Week 4
4/4/2020
-0.22%
Week 5
4/11/2020
-39.70%
Week 6
4/18/2020
-53.60%
Week 7
4/24/2020
-61.60%
Week 8
5/1/2020
-66.60%
Week 9
5/8/2020
-68.50%
Week 10
5/15/2020
-67.90%
Week 11
May 22, 2020
-66.60%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
-68.70%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
-63.70%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
-62.30%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
-62.50%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
-60.00%

Imports:
Crude Oil Imports




Week (week-over-week)
Date of Report
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Four-week period comparison
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174

Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127

Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422

Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070

Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173

Week 5
April 15, 2020
5.7
-0.194

Week 6
April 22, 2020
5.6
-0.700

Week 7
April 29, 2020
5.3
0.365
-19.700%
Week 8
May 6, 2020
5.7
0.410

Week 9
May 13, 2020
5.4
-0.321
-26.100%
Week 10
May 20, 2020
5.2
-0.194

Week 11
May 28, 2020
7.2
2.000
-16.400%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
6.2
-1.000
-18.300%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
6.4
0.000
-13.300%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
6.6
-0.222
-10.000%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
6.5
-0.102
-11.600%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
6.5
-0.600
-11.300%